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NFL Draft

Anatomy of Draft Value: What became of the Patriots 2007 28th overall pick?

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As the first round of the 2007 NFL draft wound down, the New England Patriots still had needs to fill. They had just lost in the AFC Championship in disappointing fashion to the Indianapolis Colts and the fans across Patriots nation were calling for more weapons to surround Tom Brady with.

The Pats had already taken safety Brandon Meriweather with the 24th overall pick that they had gotten for Deion Branch, and now could have their choice of any of the wide receivers who were about to be drafted in the next 18 picks: Anthony Gonzalez, Craig “Buster” Davis, Sidney Rice, or Dwayne Jarrett.

Instead the Patriots did what they almost always do, they traded down and began a journey of value returns from that pick that would continue through the next four drafts.

The initial trade was with San Francisco and gave the Patriots a 1st round pick the following year, as well as a 4th rounder in 2007 (110th overall). These two picks would net the Pats two star players.

The 2008 first rounder pick ended up getting traded down from 7th overall to 10th overall, netting the Patriots future defensive captain Jerod Mayo and future PatsPropaganda boo Shawn Crable. While a bust, Crable did give the “We Need Pass Rush!” crowd a glimmer of hope for a few seasons.

But it was the 2007 110th overall pick that would end up making history for the Pats. They flipped that 4th round selection to the Raiders for Randy Moss and we all know how that ended up going. Moss set the receiving TD record in 2007, and closed out a four year Patriots stint with 50 total touchdowns.

In 2010 the Patriots traded Moss to the Vikings in exchange for a 2011 3rd round selection, which ended up being the 74th overall pick where they took QB Ryan Mallett. Who knows what Mallett’s career with the Patriots will hold, but with him carries the legacy of the 2007 28th overall pick.

So to sum up the Patriots have thus far gotten the following out of that first round selection that they chose to trade to the 49ers who took Joe Staley with it:

  • Randy Moss
  • Jerod Mayo
  • Shawn Crable
  • Ryan Mallett
  • 2016 6th Round Pick (for Mallett via Houston)

That is what value drafting is all about.

ProFootballWeekly: Nawrocki gives Patriots an A

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ProFootballWeekly: Nawrocki gives Patriots an A

New England Patriots
The king of manipulating the draft, Bill Belichick, once again worked his magic with the help of personnel boss Nick Caserio, stockpiling a boatload of future draft picks while recognizing value throughout. With the pick acquired from Oakland in exchange for Richard Seymour, the Patriots nabbed their left tackle of the future in Nate Solder, who should benefit highly from the tutelage of OL coach Dante Scarnecchia. They dealt their 28th overall pick to the Saints for an additional first-round pick next year and a second this year, used to add change-of-pace RB Shane Vereen late in the second round. Rather than dealing down from the top of the second, they added press CB Ras-I Dowling, whose graded out like an early-round talent last season before injuries derailed his season. Belichick acquired third- and fifth-round in a deal down with Houston, adding inside banging RB Stevan Ridley and OL Marcus Cannon, who has starter potential in 2012 once he recovers from recently-diagnosed cancer. With the pick secured from Minnesota for Randy Moss, Belichick nabbed troubled, heavy-footed QB Ryan Mallett, who perfectly fits the Patriots’ offense and should benefit from a veteran locker room. The Patriots sent their third- and fourth-round picks to Oakland in exchange for a seventh-rounder (CB Malcolm Williams) and a second-rounder in 2012. TE Lee Smith could contend for a job as an in-line blocker and LB Markell Carter has developmental potential. To keep alive a string of trades with the Eagles that started when he arrived in New England, Belichick swapped one spot in the sixth round with the Eagles. They also previously shipped off Laurence Maroney for a two-round exchange of picks, acquired Deion Branch for a fourth-round pick and landed Quinn Ojinnaka from Atlanta in exchange for a seventh-round pick. The Patriots were as active dealing as any team in the draft and recognized value extremely well throughout, taking worthwhile chances on Mallett and Cannon, upgrading an aging backfield and coming away locked and loaded for next year’s draft. Knowing when to unload disgruntled veterans affecting chemistry in the locker room and which veterans can still function in his system remains a great strength that reflects in the Patriots’ drafts. Belichick can be justified taking some calculated risks, as he did, and landed some niche talent to supplement his roster.
Grade: A

Some positive Tuesday Patriots linkage

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Here’s a collection of Patriots linkage to get you feeling good about the Patriots today, not that you should need this linkage, but every little bit helps right?

First we begin with the somewhat expected news that Tom Brady should be fully ready to go at the start of training camp, whenever that might be.

Wes Bunting gives the Pats a B- for their draft saying:

I like what the Patriots did in the draft more so toward the mid/late round range as opposed to their first two picks. TE Lee Smith will be their in-line blocking tight end from day one, OL Marcus Cannon could be a steal once he’s healthy and I love RB Shane Vereen in that offense. QB Ryan Mallett is a boom or bust guy in the 3rd, as are their first two picks in my mind, OT Nate Solder and CB Ras-I Dowling.

I feel pretty good about taking a boom or bust chance on a guy when they have the character and work ethic that Solder and Dowling have.

Ryan Mallett said he’s a lot like Tom Brady.

“I think it’s a perfect fit after watching film with the coaches when I was there. And me and Tom are kind of the same,” Mallett said per the Providence Journal. “We’re not fleet of foot, obviously. We don’t run fast. We pick defenses apart and we know what’s going to happen before the snap or we react post snap and that’s why I think I’m like him a lot.”

Chad Finn of the Boston Globe plays devils advocate and says we shouldn’t “pass” rush to judgement on the Pats draft haul. Yeah Chad, that’s an understatement.

Speaking of abbreviated careers, the most immediately gratifying draft for me was the Lawrence Maroney-Chad Jackson-David Thomas trio in 2006. Now that was a flashy draft with name recognition. Finally, Tom Brady had some weapons! Turns out they were weapons of self-destruction. Five years later, Thomas is a contributor in New Orleans, but Jackson and Maroney will be lucky to take their talents to the UFL.

Belichick’s worst draft was arguably the one most of us liked the best. That’s pretty telling, I’d say, and hopefully reason enough to keep the howling to a minimum next year when he ruins everyone’s mock draft yet again. Hopefully we will learn, one of these Aprils. Because this won’t be the last time he drafts another class of promising players we’ve barely heard of over a player or three whose name recognition and position are enough to foolishly convince us he’s just the elixir the Patriots need.

Bucky Brooks of NFL.com has the Patriots as the rich getting richer.

Bill Belichick is masterful at manipulating the draft to address needs, while also adding picks for the future. This year, he continued to follow that strategy as he moved up and down to land three first-round talents: Nate Solder, Ryan Mallett and Marcus Cannon. The Mallett pick, in particular, could pay off handsomely down the road considering his potential as a pure pocket passer. Cornerback Ras-I Dowling is another intriguing prospect with the skills to outplay his draft status. After producing another stellar draft class, it appears that the rich continue to get richer in New England.

PatsPropaganda’s Patriots Draft Research Self Evaluation

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This was our most extensive year researching and discussing the draft, and like all good teams/bloggers you must be critical with your self-evaluation if you want to improve.

This is the sixth draft that I obsessed over from a Patriots perspective. Prior to that I just looked at the list of draftees and tried to make sense of it. But the five previous drafts have definitely been an education, so I was hoping that this year I could get 75% of the Patriots picks on my Patriots-only Big Board.

This will be a review of how I did, and why I missed who I did. This will include reflections on my Patriots-only Big Board and Patriots-only Mock Draft.

17. Nate Solder

Patriots-only Big Board Rank: 12

Solder was definitely one of my favorite Patriots prospects. I mentioned him in every non-PatsProp article I wrote for other sites, and I had him as 33rd overall pick in my Pats-only mock. Had him a little lower than he actually went, but otherwise I nailed this one. Solder stood out to me as a Vollmer clone, and I thought the Patriots could allow him a year to develop. He has great size and athleticism and that is always tempting for BB given what the Pats ask their OL to do.

33. Ras-I Dowling

Patriots-Only Big Board Rank: 28

I also nailed Ras-I in my Patriots-only mock, albeit having him in the 74th overall slot. He seemed to me the classic guy who falls because of injury ala Brandon Tate, thus setting him up to be an excellent value pick. Dowling fit the exact need I’ve talked about most of the spring… a rookie DB who can play some sub packages in year one, but eventually projects to Free Safety where he could replace Brandon Meriweather and/or James Sanders since both of their contracts are up after 2011. Going two for two, though much higher than I predicted, was a pretty solid start out of the gates.

56. Shane Vereen

Patriots-Only Big Board Rank: 36

I thought the Patriots would definitely tap a running back in the second or third round, however I chose Johnny White at 92 instead of Vereen who was ranked 5 spots higher on the big board. I went with White because he was a similar situation to Dowling in that he battled injuries this past season, thus dropping his ranking. 3 for 3 on the big board, 2 for 3 on the Pats-only mock.

73. Stevan Ridley

Patriots-Only Big Board Rank: 53

Nobody saw back to back running backs here, but Ridley was definitely a guy on our radar that we saw as a fit. Tough to nail this pick in the mock but it would’ve been a disappointing miss if he had not been on the big board.

74. Ryan Mallett

Patriots-Only Big Board Rank: UNRANKED

We didn’t have any quarterbacks on our big board, not because we didn’t like any of them, because we just figured it’d be a shocker if they took one. Would we have had Mallett on there even if we included QBs? Probably not. So our first miss.

138. Marcus Cannon

Patriots-Only Big Board Ranking: UNRANKED

I wrote off Cannon early in the process for reasons I’m still not entirely sure of, but there’s a nice little X next to him in my PFW draft guide. But looking back now his unique frame and set of abilities should have pinged my Patriots radar more than it did. I consider Cannon my biggest miss of the draft.

159. Lee Smith

Patriots-Only Big Board Ranking: UNRANKED

I’m frustrated that I missed Smith because I included another Tight End Luke Stocker for the same reasons that made Smith appealing. I put him on based on this: has the frame, tenacity and strength to develop into a powerful run blocker. Stocker is a blue collar-type player. Sounds just like Smith’s description, huh?

194: Markell Carter & 219: Malcolm Williams

Patriots-Only Big Board Ranking: UNRANKED ON BOTH (OBVIOUSLY)

I’m putting the last two picks together, because clearly they were outside of the box for everyone. I mean if Williams himself didn’t even think he’d get drafted how would I have any clue he’d get drafted. Neither are listed or ranked in any of the places I did all my research. So it’s a pass in that I’m not frustrated that I missed them, but nonetheless, I missed them.

Final Stats

Patriots-Only Mock: 2 of 9 draftees

Patriots-Only Big Board: 4 of 9 draftees ranked

Positions Drafted: 5 of 9 correctly projected (missed TE, QB, 2nd DB, 2nd RB)

The numbers don’t jump off the page exactly, and I believe that Cannon, Smith and even Mallett should’ve potentially be hits for me. It really should’ve been 6 out of 9. Nailing Solder and Dowling in the Patriots-only mock was surprising to even myself, and is definitely something to build on.

Each year I feel like I learn a little more and that was taken to a new level this year. Watch out in 2012!

National Football Post: Scouting Reports on Top Four Patriots Draftees

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Here are the scouting reports on the Patriots picks from National Football Post:

Nate Solder

A physical specimen for the position who possesses a rare combination of size, length and overall athleticism. You can tell he’s a former tight end by the way he lines up in a three-point stance at times, as he exhibits good flexibility and can keep his base down. Has improved on his kick-slide this year, but will get overextended quickly and open up his hips vs. speed off the edge. Does a much better job staying clean and compact with his footwork when he knows he has help on the outside in the form of a chip. However, when left on an island, hes more athlete than technician and despite his good lateral quickness, he can be exposed to the “up and under.” Possesses good range off the edge despite the fact at times he is forced to open up his hips. However, I would like to see him do a better job keeping his hands up and set on his kick-slide and be ready to punch at any time. Too often gets his hands down around his waist and struggles to anchor and fight off undersized defensive ends who want to get under him when flattening out around the edge. However, can sit into his stance vs. the bull rush, does a nice job working his arms/hands for inside leverage, slides his feet well through contact and can stick to blocks through the play.

Now, he is a gifted athlete in space and showcased better pop and power as a run blocker than given credit. Has the ability to sit into his stance, gain leverage into contact, extend his arms and finish with a strong lower body push. Can consistently drive defenders off the ball as an in-line guy one-on-one, but at times will get overextended and fall off blocks after initial contact. Looks natural on the move as well and has the ability to get into blocks quickly and create a bit of a surge at the point of attack. Breaks down well in space, exhibits some short-area quickness and can routinely seal his target.

Impression: A guy who will likely be over drafted based on upside — and rightfully so, as he has the skill set to be as good as he wants to be in the NFL. However, has a lot of cleaning up to be entrusted as a left tackle early in his NFL career and I could see him being better suited to play on the right side because of his ability to win in the run game. Reminds me some of former second-round pick Sebastian Vollmer.

Ras-I Dowling

A tall, well-built defensive back with a broad upper body and long arms for the position. Showcases good ball skills and body control when asked to make a play on the throw down the field. Locates the football quickly and showcases the timing and coordination to consistently go up and get his hands on the football. Displays good instincts in zone-coverage, reads the quarterback’s eyes well, gets early jumps on the pass and does a nice job putting himself around the action. Is a sound, wrap-up tackler who isn’t afraid to attack downhill at the line of scrimmage. Generates a good thrust through his hips and creates a pop on contact. Also does a nice job fending off blocks on the outside. Uses his length well to play off opposing wideouts and make his way toward the football.

However, isn’t real flexible when asked to sit into his stance, doubles over at the waist and allows his pad level to get too high when asked to turn and run. More of a strider who needs a couple steps to get going to begin with, but his lack of fluidity and balance when asked to turn and run really limits his initial burst down the field. Isn’t real clean with his footwork at this stage as well. Has a tendency to open up his hips prematurely in man coverage, struggles to consistently stay compact and balanced in his lower half and it really takes him a while to regain his footing when asked to redirect. Consistently is overextend with his footwork and too easily allows wideouts to separate down the field on him. Now, he is physical and tracks the football well, but he won’t see the consistent amount of underthrown passes vertically in the NFL that he sees in college.

Impression: A physically strapping corner with good size and ball skills, and he knows how to tackle in the run game. However, I wouldn’t trust the guy at this stage in man-to-man coverage at the next level. Looks more like a cover-two type corner only to me or a potential free safety prospect. Not as high on him as most.

Shane Vereen

Possesses good overall height, is a bit narrow through the shoulders and upper body, but possesses average girth through the lower half. Displays a good first step when asked to press the line of scrimmage and quickly is able to decipher information, get up to speed quickly and accelerate toward daylight. Is a patient runner who allows blockers to set in front of him and knows how to pick his way through tight creases. Does a nice job keeping his pad level down through the line of scrimmage, running with some leverage and possesses really fluid hips and good lateral quickness. Consistently is able to make defenders miss in a phone booth, isn’t forced to gear down, can make his cuts at full speed, maintain balance and accelerate quickly. Showcases natural cutback ability as well, exhibits good vision inside, recognizes the cutback lane quickly and is a sharp enough and sudden enough runner to consistently hit it. Exhibits a second gear to his game once he gets into the second level. Lacks elite straight-line speed, but plays fast, accelerates extremely well in the open field and will be able to outpace some angles in the NFL. Lacks ideal overall power to his game, struggles to consistently break tackles inside once a defender can get a hold of him, runs low but lacks the natural strength to routinely push the piles.

However, has a good feel in short-yard situations, is sudden/instinct at the line, displays great quickness to find a hole and slither his way through a crease. Isn’t the most natural of blockers in blitz pick-up, keeps his head up and locates who he wants to hit, but gets a bit upright and isn’t real patient. Gets caught lunging into defenders, loses his balance and needs development in that area. But, is a natural receiver out of the backfield, has a good feel in the screen game, plucks the football well away from his frame and squares his body quickly. Is also a threat out of the backfield, is a natural route runner you can split out in the slot, looks comfortable getting down the field and has the ability to create mismatches in the pass game in the NFL.

Impression: Is a shifty, sudden back with good vision and patience inside. Can create on his own, set up blocks inside and accelerates really quickly toward daylight. Lacks the kind of girth to carry the load at the next level, but can be a very good rotation back who can also add a dimension in the pass game as well.

Stevan Ridley

A thicker, well-put-together back with a strong-looking lower half and good overall bulk for the position. Possesses a good first step when asked to press the line of scrimmage, runs with good forward lean inside and keeps his pad level down through contact. Is more of a downhill back who is at his best pressing the line quickly and getting into the second level. Runs hard and has some natural strength in his lower half when asked to push the pile and break tackles inside. However, exhibits only average lateral ability inside. Displays very average one-cut ability when asked to set up blocks or make a man miss. But, consistently allows his pad level to rise, exposes some of his frame and loses his balance quickly. Isn’t the kind of fluid/shifty back who can make a man miss and quickly collect himself and get back up to speed quickly. He’s consistently forced to gear down when trying to change directions and isn’t a guy who is real gifted in tight/open quarters. Will get caught dancing at times trying to decipher information and needs a hole in front of him to be successful.

Displays slightly above-average patience when asked to set up blocks inside. However, doesn’t have a great feel in tight quarters and isn’t a guy who can consistently make defenders miss and create on his own. Needs the play to be blocked off correctly in order for him to be effective and because of that looks more like a reserve only. Has an average first step and can get up to speed quickly initially. However, has one gear to his game and isn’t going to outpace many NFL defenders at the second level.

Wasn’t asked to play on obvious passing situations. Isn’t a real natural receiver out of the backfield and didn’t seem real comfortable in blitz pick up either.

Impression: A very average downhill back who runs hard and low and has some natural power to his game. However, he isn’t a guy who can consistently create on his own and lacks great feel inside picking his way through tight quarters. A reserve guy only.

Annual “Defending the Patriots Draft Philosophy” Post

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We’re back in the true Ministry of PatsPropaganda today so we’ll finally be able to really take a closer look the prospects the Pats took this year and get back to posting more Patriots wonderfulness, but of course it’s the Monday after the draft which means we’re again defending how the Pats did.

So we’ll start with the annual debate between drafting for need versus value. Drafting for need is what most teams do because most teams operate from a “must win now to keep our jobs” motivation.

BB obviously no longer has to do that, which is fortunate because drafting primarily based on need can be like “whack-a-mole”. You’re always just one play, one practice, even one workout injury away from a need. Needs are always completely fluid, even if some appear greater than others.

Now this year a lot of people are grading out the Patriots poorly for one reason, they didn’t draft an outside linebacker at the top of the draft. There was much clamor for a “pass rusher”, which I’m not even sure a lot of people know what they’re saying when they say it, but we’re just going to assume that OLB was the position people wanted since interior pass rushers and defensive backs who are skilled blitzers aren’t the sexy choices.

Many see the Patriots doomed to only dominate the regular season and never get another Super Bowl until the have a new Willie MacGinest, Mike Vrabel, or Lawrence Taylor. I get it.

Schematically that line of thinking is flawed anyway since the Patriots system is predicated on balance, versatility, and intelligence, but statistically the Pats stunk on third down and it seems like common sense that if you fix the weakest part of the roster you should see improvement. But it rarely works out that cleanly.

Let me illustrate the problem with that line of thinking, especially when you’re operating your franchise from a perspective of not “win right now” but “win for the next decade”.

I liken a football team to a house that you’ve built and must maintain. Now of course there are some parts of the house that are more vital to it’s structure and there are certainly parts that look pretty but really don’t keep the house standing (cough… wide receivers). Once a year you get to go to the a hardware supply company and pick a limited number of components with which to keep your house in tip-top shape.

Now this year the central staircase really needs to be fixed, but the rest of the house is generally in a good state. Unfortunately the only materials at the hardware store aren’t quite right for the marble staircase your design plans call for. You’re not sure if what they hardware company has will fit at all. Sure it will hopefully be a serviceable staircase that you’ll be able to get up and down, but it might never be perfect and that could very well lead to other problems.

Meanwhile there’s a cross beam at the hardware company that would be an ideal fit for your house and keep it standing for another decade. And while your current cross beam has been in place for a while, it’s still working okay and is nowhere as in need of repair as the central staircase, though it will surely need to be replaced in a couple years. This cross beam might even be in the discount pile.

Now do you just make the staircase work because it’s your biggest need, and ignore the fact that it could fail and then you might be looking to replace both that and the main cross beam in a couple years? Or do you take the cross beam that you know will work, and try to fix the staircase through other means, or worst case, wait until next years trip to the hardware company and see if they have the right materials then?

It’s this decision of need versus value that ten years into the BB regime people are still trying to wrap their heads around. I’m as surprised as anyone that the Patriots did not dip into this year’s defensive end class. I’m not however that surprised they didn’t take an outside linebacker project until later.

Trying to force a prospect to do things you’re not sure he can do will rarely work out well. That’s a move that a team who must win now makes, not one that is simply looking to continue a sustained run of dominance does.

The funny thing to me is that this was maybe the first time in BB’s draft history that he actually hit on every major need that I saw. It might not have addressed the teams biggest statistical weakness as early as many of us would’ve liked, but it was addressed.

Who knows if Markell Carter is just another Pierre Woods or Shawn Crable, or maybe he has real pass rush potential, only time will tell. But clearly they felt better about his chances to succeed in New England then they did a lot of other more well-known prospects.

Maybe, just maybe, he’ll actually be the pass rusher we were all looking for. Then we can change the Patriots draft grade to an A. Again.