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Patriots Gameplan: Super Bowl vs. Seattle Seahawks

January 30, 2015 by Mike Dussault

It all comes down to this as the New England Patriots face the Seattle Seahawks in Glendale, Arizona for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy of Super Bowl 49. Good luck if you’re still looking for tickets for Super Bowl 49!

It’s been a full season of gameplans, and now there’s just one team to focus on. Despite this week’s distractions, the Seahawks pose a strong challenge for the Patriots – one that will test many of their weaknesses.

But with two weeks to prepare, there is no better coach that Bill Belichick and if the Patriots can execute the game plan that Belichick lays out, they’ll have a very strong chance of winning.

Here’s what I think they need to do.

Offensive Gameplan

We can take a look back to the 2012 matchup between these two teams to get a little bit of a sense how they might attack each other. As I laid out last week, the Patriots had plenty of success moving the ball, but their 1-6 performance in the red zone, including an end zone interception, was the difference.

The Seahawks are an excellent defense, but they are not a complex one. As Eric Mangini once said of Brady “if he knows it goes”, and that’s why the Patriots should feel comfortable with how to attack the Seahawks defense.

Executing and matching their physicality will be the challenges, but the Patriots are not a team that is often bullied on either side of the ball. They’ll take some licks and they’ll give some licks.

The 2012 attack was centered heavily on attacking the center of the field, the Pats’ bread and butter, and there’s no reason to think they’ll get away from that.

While some have called Rob Gronkowski the key player of the game, I believe it could be Julian Edelman, especially if he’s able to matchup in the slot against Jeremy Lane.

The physicality of Brandon LaFell on the outside is just what you want against the Seahawks’ corners. He should see plenty of Byron Maxwell. Given Brady’s strength throwing the ball to his left, LaFell could have a chance to shine as well.

A healthy Gronkowski is always an X-factor especially in the red zone. How the Seahawks choose to match Gronkowski will be one of the most interesting points to monitor as the game unfolds.

The Seahawks have given up over 130 yards rushing in each of their two playoff games so there’s good reason to stay balanced with LeGarrette Blount. If Blount gets rolling it could help the Patriots be far more balanced than they’ve been in the last two Super Bowls.

The Patriots must challenge Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas given their injuries. Tight formations that run to Sherman’s side would be a good way to test out his tackling with his injured elbow.

But most important is protecting Tom Brady up the middle. That’s where their gameplans were destroyed in the last two Super Bowls, namely by Justin Tuck. This will be a quick passing attack, so the edges are less of a concern.

Michael Bennett slides inside in the Seahawks nickel package, so that could be a concern. The Pats will know where he is at all times, and perhaps running at him in nickel with Shane Vereen will be something to consider.

The Pats received a boost with news on Wednesday that center Bryan Stork should be ready to go. Stork, Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell must play well. There’s no quicker way for things to unravel than if that trio is getting beat early and often.

Defensive Gameplan

This is the best secondary the Patriots have entered a Super Bowl with, at least since 2003. The Seahawks passing attack is fairly easy to decipher and the Pats match up well with them.

Conventional thinking is Darrelle Revis will take Doug Baldwin, while Brandon Browner will take the bigger deep threat in Jermaine Kearse. Kyle Arrington should see Ricardo Lockette in the slot, while Patrick Chung should get the majority of the coverage against tight end Luke Willson.

Of course, the Patriots will not be predictable and these coverages will shift at times, but in the important moments, those will likely be who’s covering who.

The problem for the Patriots will be Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson, for a variety of reasons. Lynch has had limited success against the Patriots (averages for 5 career games vs. Pats: 14 carries, 53 yards, 3.79 YPC. Never broken 100 yards), though that doesn’t mean much in a one game situation.

The read option and Russell Wilson’s mobility are two things the Patriots must concern themselves with. This area has been extensively covered this week because it’s obvious.

I believe the best route is to force the ball to Lynch and take away Wilson’s outside scrambles at all costs. Let Wilfork, Siliga and Branch stop Lynch.

Wilson’s bootlegs are another big concern as well so the focus for the edge players to maintain integrity is vital.

Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich must remain disciplined in their pass rush, while Vince Wilfork, Sealver Siliga and Alan Branch must maintain gap discipline. It’s likely Wilfork won’t try to overcommit to his pass rush and instead hold the top of the pocket to contain Wilson.

There are a number of ways the Pats can go to spy Wilson as well, with most thinking Jamie Collins is a good fit for the job, while Dont’a Hightower covers Lynch on passing routes.

Lynch was the third-leading receiver for the Seahawks this year, so Hightower’s work in coverage is critical. Hightower has the size and enough maneuverability that he’s a pretty good matchup.

Trusting that the secondary can take away the quick throws and buy them time for a slow pass rush is critical, especially on third down. If the Pats can’t keep Wilson in the pocket their entire gameplan will start to breakdown as receivers uncover downfield and Wilson scrambles for critical yardage.

Stopping Lynch on straight-forward run plays is only the beginning. Seattle’s misdirection and ability to extend plays must be snuffed out to stop them.

Points of Emphasis

1. Keep Wilson in the Pocket – Whether they spy him with a linebacker or just “mush rush” him, stopping Wilson from making big plays on the ground is a huge priority. No quarterback is better at making plays after things break down, so being patient is key, especially when the initial timing of the play is stopped. If Wilson is forced to stay in the pocket and throw the ball, the Patriots will have taken away a major piece of what makes the Seahawks go. This of course goes hand in hand with…

2. Gang Tackle Lynch – The defensive tackles must wrap and tackle Lynch, because he lives of yards-after-contact. The Patriots have been pretty good at this in the past with Lynch but that will mean little on Sunday. Alan Branch knows firsthand from his time in Seattle what it’s like to see Lynch on a daily basis and his presence should help. If Chandler/Ninkovich/Collins form a triangle trap to contain Wilson, it will be up to the Wilfork/Siliga/Hightower/Chung to hold Lynch in check.

3. Protect Brady Up The Middle – This is the Super Bowl credo. Don’t let the interior rushers throw off the quick-passes. Michael Bennett is certainly one player to be concerned with, but the offensive line will need their best game of the season if the Pats are going to get the job done.

4. 60 Minutes- Everyone one of the five Super Bowls Brady and Belichick have gone to have gone down to the final possession and is there really any reason to think this one would be any different? There’s no question these are the two best teams in football and the one who makes the fewest mistakes and puts together the best game on this particular day

5. Win – The Patriots will feel things out early, testing how the Seahawks want to play them. As Michael Lombardi once said, the start of the game is a race for Belichick to see how you want to play them. An early three-and-out or sustained Seahawks drive is not cause for major concern, though a fast start would be nice, and it’s something the Pats have lacked in the last two Super Bowls. What matters most is winning no matter how the ups-and-downs of the games go. To see them raise the Lombardi Trophy once again after all the controversies of not only the last two weeks, but of the last seven years, would truly be something special for Patriots fans.

It all comes down to this.

Patriots vs. Seahawks: Look Back at 2012

January 21, 2015 by Mike Dussault

I was in Seattle for the 2012 matchup between the Patriots and the Seahawks, the second time I had been to a game there. It’s a fantastic atmosphere and I have to say I admire the energy the fans bring. Might be a little over-hyped now with all the attention they’ve gotten but they’ve earned every bit of it.

Even in 2008, with the Hawks well out of the playoff picture and Matt Cassel under center for the Pats, they brought impressive enthusiasm, cheering through the Patriots huddle as if it were a playoff game.

The Patriots won the game in 2008 on a forced fumble by Brandon Meriweather and, in looking back at the 2012 game, the Pats really should’ve won that one too.

Had it not been for an end zone interception in the fourth quarter, with the Pats already up 20-10, it might’ve even gone into “blowout” territory.

The keys to the late Seahawks comeback? A 51-yard pass to Golden Tate that set up their first touchdown that closed the score to 23-17. Then the game-winning 46-yard strike to Sidney Rice.

It’s worth noting, and not surprising, that the Pats had rookie Tavon Wilson, now an “in-the-box” safety, and special teamer Nate Ebner, playing as their deep free safeties. Devin McCourty was still playing cornerback then.

The Pats held Marshawn Lynch to just 41 yards on 15 carries, with a long of just 7 yards. New England seemed well-prepared to shut down Lynch with a gang-tackling style.

What stands out on the Pats offensive side of the ball is how pass-heavy they went from the get-go. Brady ended the day 36-of-58 with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

26 rushing attempts yielded just 87 yards, a 3.3 average, but most of the time those runs almost felt obligatory. For the most part, the Pats seemed intent on spreading the Seahawks out and throwing it at the middle of the field.

36 of Brady’s 58 attempts we aimed 0-10 yards from the LOS, with 23 of them being right in the middle of the field. Wes Welker ended the day with 138 yards, including a 46 yard touchdown.

Brady had success on every Seahawk defensive back except Richard Sherman, where he was just 2-of-7 with an interception.

Perhaps most telling is that New England was just 1-for-6 in the red zone. The chances were there, but they couldn’t finish.

While many of the players are now different, I think there’s something to be said from how the Pats attacked the Seahawks defensive scheme. Seattle is not a complex defense based on disguise and mix-and-match coverage. They do what they do, but they do it with aggression and speed and that’s why they’re so good.

Beating Brady has always been about deception and taking away his quick throws. This was not how Seattle chose to defend him in 2012 and he moved the ball fairly well.

Seattle may try a similar game plan to last year’s Super Bowl, with heavy press man, or they may allow the short throws and try to punish the receivers after the catch.

Either way, I think New England has good threats across the board to challenge the Seahawks defensive style. The easy guess is that Julian Edelman will be a big factor in the middle of the field like Welker was in 2012.

Still, as we saw last week, the Seahawks run defense can be had with a big physical runner, so perhaps LeGarrette Blount will see more work than Ridley et al. did in 2012.

One thing is for sure, the Patriots have options on offense that they didn’t have in 2012. Especially at X-receiver, where trading up from Brandon Lloyd to Brandon LaFell is about as good as you could hope for in a physical matchup like this.

Defensively, it’s night and day for the Patriots, with a deep and versatile secondary that can match up with anyone and shouldn’t be as likely to give up those over-the-top bombs that won the game for the Hawks last time.

Can the Pats still stop Lynch like they did last time? Brandon Spikes was a big factor and they’ll need a similar performance from Dont’a Hightower.

Russell Wilson also had some success running outside the pocket in 2012, and that’s another area the Patriots will have to be very conscious of.

Still, it’s encouraging to see the Patriots move the ball in an environment like Seattle and it’s a good sign they’ll be comfortable attacking Pete Carroll’s scheme in Glendale.

Patriots On To Face Seattle in the Super Bowl

January 19, 2015 by Mike Dussault

Deep in the back of any New England Patriots fan’s mind headed into the AFC Championship, was the feeling that the Pats should probably blow out the Colts. Not many had the confidence to come out and say it, or perhaps we were just too superstitious, but given the results of the last three matchups, it seemed clear the Pats should roll.

And that’s just what New England did, rolling over the Colts just as they had the previous three times, and they’re now headed to their sixth Super Bowl in the last 14 seasons.

It’s obvious what Bill Belichick thinks of the Colts – that the simple key was running all over them and the Pats had no problem doing it once again, racking up 177 rushing yards.

The Colts had one touchdown drive, aided by two penalties and a spectacular catch by T.Y. Hilton, but otherwise, they were completely shut down.

Some crazy good Pats stats:

Offense 12-for-18 on third down.
Defense 3-for-11 on third down.
Offense 6-for-7 in the red zone.

As we talked about this week, it had been a while since New England came out with an “A” performance in the AFC championship, well this was the one we’ve been waiting for since 2004.

Given the nature of the game, it’s hard not to go total lovefest on every player and coach. Is there really anything to criticize coming out of this one?

Yeah, another bad Tom Brady interception that led to a significant momentum shift. But outside of that the team played inspired football from start to finish. It was an impressive culmination to watch. Hopefully they have one more game like this in them, but it certainly won’t be easy.

So now the Pats are on to the Super Bowl and there will be plenty to breakdown on this great matchup in the next two weeks. For now, it’s time to celebrate the Pats are once again headed to the big one.

Questions, Comments, Complaints, Compliments, Whatever

January 9, 2015 by Mike Dussault

Questions, Comments, Complaints, Compliments, Whatever

Playoff Q&A is a go!!!

Patriots Game Plan: Week 16 @ Jets

December 19, 2014 by Mike Dussault

If you haven’t heard, the Patriots are already being pencilled in to face the Packers in the Super Bowl. These last two games against the lowly Jets and Bills, who once again lost the division to the Pats, will have no impact on the Pats’ paper-thin grasp on the top seed in the AFC, so we don’t even really need to tune in. Or do we?

That’s how things probably look to most outside of New England, those who only remember the 45-3 stomping of the Jets in 2010 or the Buttfumble game of Thanksgiving 2012. But in reality, every game between Rex Ryan’s Jets and the Patriots is incredibly close.

The Jets would have beaten the Patriots in Foxboro in Week 7 had the final field goal not been blocked by Chris Jones. Throw out the Buttfumble game and the last four meetings between the two teams have been decided by 11 total points, with two of them going to overtime.

Yes, we can throw records out the window when these two teams meet. Say what you will about Rex Ryan as a head coach, but as a defensive game planner, no one is more adept at giving Tom Brady and the Pats’ offense problems.

This game concerns me and the Pats have a lot to lose. Here’s the gameplan for getting by a very tough road test that some are dubbing “meaningless”.

Offensive Game Plan

As I said in last week’s game plan, by now we know who we are and the strength of the Jets defense (run defense) only encourages the Pats to be who they are – a passing offense that throws to score and runs to win.

Now, there’s certainly something to be said for getting Jonas Grey more involved earlier this week and I’m all for that. But rarely is a game plan more obvious. The Pats should spread the Jets out, making them dig deep into the secondary depth to cover all of New England’s targets.

This means more Shane Vereen, Tim Wright and Danny Amendola, and less Hooman and Develin. And I’m sure no one will complain about that.

The biggest concern, as always, is along the interior of the offensive line where the weak link of the Pats’ offense faces the strength of the Jets’. As I write every week in these game plan articles, it all comes down to protecting Brady, but Sheldon Richardson owning Dan Connolly all game and ruining the Pats offensive game plan is a very-possible recipe for disaster.

Spread the Jets out, get the ball out quick and get an early lead to extinguish any energy they might bring early in this one and the Pats should roll.

Defensive Game Plan

Remember in Week 7, when Revis gave up three catches on four targets, including a 24-yarder to Eric Decker, as the hapless Pats couldn’t get off the field against the Jets and everyone started to question if Revis still had it?

Well, safe to say those days are behind us, but I think Revis will play with something to prove in the Meadowlands. I do think we’ll see the Pats playing more sides in the secondary than staying with specific receivers.

We saw more Cover-3 last week and that should continue this week, especially with how the Pats were burned by Geno Smith tucking and running in the first matchup.

Up front, we gonna do what we do. The Pats now have a lethal dose of pass rushers and space-eaters. And it starts with stopping the run, since the Jets ran wild all over the Pats the first time around.

That shouldn’t be a problem with Wilfork/Branch/Siliga locking things down inside now. Without the running game to lean on, the Jets offense will struggle and that’s when the airtight coverage in the secondary comes into play. That is the strength of the Pats defense and forcing the Jets to play into it is priority one.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Build the Wall: Looking back at Week 7 and the stat that jumps off the page is the Jets’ 218 rushing yards. That led into them being 9-of-16 on third down, as they had manageable distances. This time around Sealver Siliga and Alan Branch are in the mix, along with a fully healthy Chris Jones. The edges are equally important with Ninkovich, Chandler, Ayers and Hightower all having that assignment throughout the game. Stop the run and the Jets offense will wilt.

2. Keep Offense On Time: Rex Ryan’s defense feasts on third-and-longs, where his deception and overloaded blitzes have extra time to get to Tom Brady. How do we avoid third-and-longs? By winning on first and second down. The Pats haven’t been good the last two weeks trying to run on first down, averaging 3.3 yards-per-rush. I’d be fine if they go pass-heavy, but if they do try to “establish the run” Jonas Gray has been far better than Blount running against a base defense, averaging 6.3 yards per first down carry. Whether it’s the quick passing offense or runs with Gray, winning on early downs will be key to mounting scoring drives.

3. Make Geno Throw: The last thing we need is for the Pats’ pass rush to get overzealous, opening up running lanes for Geno Smith. Smith converted three third downs in Week 7 by scrambling. Those kind of drive-extending plays are the worst. I don’t think anyone believes Geno has the kind of accuracy to pick the Pats’ secondary apart. Keep him in the pocket, only rush two if you have to, but make him beat us through the air.

4. 60 Minutes: We’d all love it if the Pats could just turn in two average, injury-free performances and sew up the top seed in the AFC, but neither the Jets nor Buffalo are going to let us off easy. And really, that might be a good thing for the Super Bowl prospects of the Pats. They can’t ease up or their road to Arizona will get much tougher. They’ll have to have all their focus and competitiveness for a full 60 minutes this weekend. Rex will not go down without a fight and his players will want to send him out with a win over their hated rival. The Patriots must be ready for a motivated football team, at least for the first half.

5. Win – This is what it all boils down to. This could be the last time the Pats play a road game until they potentially go to Arizona. That in and of itself is motivation to put a strong exclamation point on this season’s road wins. New England has won against some very good teams on the road this year, and in convincing fashion in Indy. A win puts them one game away from a very advantageous road. That should be all the motivation they need.

Questions, Comments, Complaints, Compliments, Whatever

December 12, 2014 by Mike Dussault

Questions, Comments, Complaints, Compliments, Whatever

Friday Q&A is off to a delayed start, let’s hear your questions, comments, etc!

3 GIFs that Defined Patriots Win Over Lions

November 24, 2014 by Mike Dussault

As you might expect after a 5-of-17 third down defensive performance, we’re going a little heavy on defense in this weeks GIFs That Defined The Game.

Can’t forget Amendola’s kickoff return or Ryan Allen’s punt either, both were tone setters in the first half, but the return was just too long to GIF and as appreciative as I am of Allen’s boomer, no one wants to see a punt on loop. So good job, guys, but here are the plays that defined the game otherwise.

First, we start early in the second quarter, with New England holding a four-point lead and Detroit sitting on the two yard line on third down. Patrick Chung has had problems with big tight ends in the past, and they’re certainly not his ideal matchup, but here Chung is agile and physical enough to avoid the traffic and get into perfect position to defend Stafford’s attempt to throw it up to Fauria.

This was the only time all game the Lions would get into the red zone and the Pats held. This is the kind of play that great defenses make. Holding opponents to field goals in the red zone will be very necessary in January/February.

Next, we’re still in the second quarter, with New England up by eight as Detroit is on the outskirts of field goal range facing a manageable third-and-four. Revis and Arrington play the attempted pick play perfectly, while the four-man rush gets just enough pressure to force a backfooted throw by Stafford. Great team defense to force the punt and keep points off the board.

We’re still in the second quarter when we get these next two plays to Rob Gronkowski to take the Pats from their own 42 to field goal range after being in a 2nd-and-17 hole. Gronk is so hard to stop, with these two plays coming after a relatively quiet first half.

These catches show the quick-scoring ability and explosiveness of the Patriots’ offense right now. No down-and-distance is unmanageable. Putting points on the board before the half were some of the final nails in the Lions’ coffin.

Finally, comes a third down on the Lions’ first possession of the second half. A touchdown drive here might swing the momentum and made things interesting.

The pass is completed, but it’s the way the defense closes on the ball to keep the Lions short of the first down that most stands out here. This is the kind of swarming defense that the Patriots have been showing lately.

This play essentially snuffed out any hope the Lions might’ve had coming out of the locker room as the Pats would tack on another field goal on their ensuing possession.