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Tanier: When Will The Bounces Stop Going The Jets’ Way?

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Tanier: When Will The Bounces Stop Going The Jets’ Way?

I’m the last person who’s going to get on the Jets case about winning close games even against teams with a below average record. I saw the Patriots eek out close games on their way to three Super Bowls. However there’s a difference between playing sound fundamental football/ not beating yourself and just getting lucky bounces. I think this article sheds some light on which the Jets have been doing/getting.

Football Outsiders: Patriots 97.3% Chance of Making Playoffs, 48.4% Chance at 1st Seed

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You can check out their methodology here, but it looks like a lock that the Pats and Jets will both be in the playoffs. The Pats also have a 48.4% chance at the number one seed in the AFC, which is of course a monstrous advantage.

In fact there’s a pretty good chance they will finish with the first and second best records in the AFC, however only one team will get a bye. The other will be looking at a 5 seed and a trip to San Diego (as FO projects). Just another reason why this next game is going to be so huge.

The full FO playoff projection is below. If the Patriots beat the Jets next week they will have beaten every single AFC playoff participant. That’s pretty amazing when you think about it.

AFC

  1. Patriots
  2. Steelers
  3. Colts
  4. Chargers
  5. Jets
  6. Ravens

NFC

  1. Falcons
  2. Eagles
  3. Packers
  4. Seahawks
  5. Saints
  6. Giants

New York Jets’ Wayne Hunter: Best Backup in NFL or Scrub?

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I’ve said many times I enjoy having Rex Ryan coach the Jets. He brings far more to a rivalry than say, Chan Gailey does. But as we start to catch on more and more to Rexy’s act it’s starting to smell more and more “snacky”.

Take for example the conflicting reports below.

First Rex’s response when asked if he’s concerned if Damien Woody won’t be able to play on Thursday:

If he’s ready to go, he’ll be in there.  If not, we feel good about Wayne Hunter.  We left Wayne isolated a lot of times on that (Mario) Williams guy.  There’s a reason that (Williams) was the first pick in the draft.  He’s pretty good.  We have a lot of confidence in Wayne Hunter. We’re fortunate.  We feel like we have the best backup tackle in football in Wayne Hunter.  If Wayne has to play, we know he’ll do a great job  (and give) a good account of himself.

Okay, then we have this report from ProFootballFocus.com:

Although the Jets won, the performance of Wayne Hunter (-7.0) is a major cause for concern. After a first-quarter knee injury to Damien Woody, Hunter filled in at right tackle and gave up a sack, a hit and eight pressures, as Mark Sanchez had to constantly escape the rush in the second half. If Woody is unable to go on Thursday night, the Jets might like to consider leaving more extra blockers in to help Hunter out, because that much pressure is a recipe for disaster.

Look I understand what Ryan’s doing, he’s trying to build the confidence of a young player. To let him know his coach believes in him. But doesn’t this act start to ring hollow at some point? Wouldn’t it just be better to say nothing at all?

Regardless of how accurate ProFootballFocus’ metrics are or are not, it’s safe to say Wayne had a marginal-at-best game. And Rexy might to save Woody and make sure he’s 100% for the Patriots game. That would give him over two weeks to get completely healthy.

But if Wayne Hunter plays against the Bengals, he could get Mark Sanchez de-Sanchized. 

Wayne Doesn’t Know If He’s The Best Or He Sucks

Three Two Count: Mark Sanchez gets fined for pouting

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Three Two Count: Mark Sanchez gets fined for pouting

threetwocount:

The New York Daily News reported that the Jets are looking at turning Mark Sanchez into a good NFL quarterback for punishing him when he pouts on the field.

No, this is not a joke.

The team instated the “Bad Body Language System” last week, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer…

NY Post: Patriots still big obstacle for Jets

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NY Post: Patriots still big obstacle for Jets

Sometimes it blows my mind how quickly one game can suddenly change everyone’s opinions about a team. Sure, the Jets looked sloppy against the Packers… well offensively they looked sloppy. But how many Super Bowl champions didn’t have at least one sloppy game where they lost to a team they should’ve beat?

The Jets are still a good football team. As we saw last year everyone had left them for dead, including their own coach, before peaking (and getting help) at the right time of the season. 

Meanwhile the Patriots have squeaked out five straight wins since losing to the Jets in week two and everyone is putting them on top of their power rankings. If you’ve watch the games you know that the Patriots could’ve easily lost four of those games if not for some clutch (and often lucky) plays that went their way. Let me tell you, both the Patriots and the Jets still have a lot of issues to figure out before the stretch run.

How well teams are playing right now matters very little toward how they will finish three months from now. If you wanted to do a real power ranking right now, the only thing you could honestly determine would be 16-20 teams who are contenders and 10-12 who are not. 

Ignore the power rankings. Ignore the hype. Hope to see your team play better this week than they did last week and the rest will take care of itself.