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Keeping the Patriots Win in Perspective

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As my Dad often said, and as BB practices, you can’t let your lows get too low, nor let your highs get too high. Clearly this was the tone Tom Brady took at the podium after the win over the Jets, keeping a level head while quickly turning the page to the already-behind preparations for the Chicago Bears.

So let’s take a deep breath and talk about what this win really means in the big picture.

Unfortunately the Patriots clinched neither the AFC East nor homefield advantage last night. Sure, it’s always nice to pound Rex and the Jets, but ultimately the division race is still very much alive. A one game lead with four to play isn’t enough. Especially when two of those four are inside the division.

The Patriots sit in first place, but the Jets are still very much alive folks. As you can see from the tie breaks procedure after head to head, division record the next factor is common games. The Pats loss to Cleveland (Jets beat them) and the Jets loss to the Ravens (Patriots beat them) cancel each other out. The Pats have games in hand having already beaten Pittsburgh, and still having a chance to beat the Packers. Chicago is the wild card as both the Pats and Jets have yet to play them.

So every game remains huge, starting with the divisional matchups, both of which the Jets have at home. The Patriots will have to go to Buffalo, while hosting Miami.

I don’t want to diminish last night’s win, but it was very much a “hold serve” victory. There is no breathing room for the Patriots. If they lose to Chicago and the Jets beat Miami it would go down to the 5th tiebreaker for the Pats to maintain first place.

Here’s how ties are broken:

Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

Some new twists for the New England Patriots defense

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It’s hard to know where to start when breaking down the New England Patriots dismantling of the New York Jets, so to kick it off here are some observations from the Pats defensive side of the ball.

The first player I’d like to talk about is Darius Butler who suddenly emerged as the teams nickelback last night. Patrick Chung had been playing that spot in place of Jonathan Wilhite, but it was not his strength. Putting Butler in forced Chung back into a rotation at safety, meaning less playing time for him.

Jarrad Page also suddenly emerged, making it a four man rotation at safety. I will need to look more closely at how exactly all of them were used, the snap counts should give some insight into it. Page looked like he was playing fast and physical last night, we forget that he was steadily getting more and more play time before getting hurt.

Dane Fletcher saw time as a 3-4 OLB for the first time this season. It wasn’t his traditional pass rush/spy role. This sheds a little more light on the decision to let Shawn Crable go. I’ve always been curious to see if Fletcher could play OLB in the base defense, it seems like he has the length and smarts needed. Hopefully he will continue to improve, but chalk another undrafted rookie up on Bill Belichick’s success list.

Devin McCourty… what can you say. I don’t think it’s too early to say we’ve finally got an elite corner. Partner him with Leigh Bodden next year and I guarantee this unit won’t be ranked last in anything. But that’s next year, for now McCourty is really the difference maker in the secondary.

Brandon Spikes’ interception is a huge sign of progress. Had he bit on the play action it would’ve been a touchdown. Instead he stayed in his zone and Sancheesy threw it right to him.

To think that this defense held the Jets to 3 points without Ty Warren, Leigh Bodden, Mike Wright, Myron Pryor and Jonathan Wilhite… wow.

More to come later…

And we’re back…

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When the Great Tumblr Crash of ‘10 just happened to fall on the Monday of Patriots – Jets I wasn’t sure how to interpret the complete shutdown of my all things Patriots blog. So I rode it out, mainly with Twitter as my methadone.

Well, it’s clear to say now that the Great Tumblr Crash of ’10 was indeed great. My thoughts on this win, and what it means coming soon. But first I must digest it. I leave this video as an appetizer.

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lolpats:

REX’S BEST MISTAKE YET

Who knew a 400 pound man could give us all a woody?

https://www.patspropaganda.com/rexs-best-mistake-yet/

“Bent Pinky” Baldinger Rains On The Patriots Parade

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I can’t really argue with what Brian Baldinger writes in this article where he basically says the Patriots just aren’t good enough defensively to win the AFC East this year. The struggles of the young defense have been well chronicled here.

But the fact is that despite all the rankings that say the Pats D sucks, they are just one home win away from the inside track of not only the AFC East but a first round playoff bye.

So basically Baldy’s saying the Patriots will not win this game, because if they do pretty much everything he says in this article will be out the window. Of course, the ‘how deep can the Pats go in the playoffs’ part of it will remain to be seen.

The thing is that we have seen glimpses here and there throughout the season. The big interceptions against the Chargers, Colts and Lions are easy to recount. But this Patriots did force the vaunted Ravens offense to punt THREE times in overtime.

There is potential for this team, but still the pundits harp on how much the Patriots require a dominant edge rusher. While this indeed could be the final piece that gets put into place in the 2011 draft, we still don’t know for sure what Jermaine Cunningham’s ceiling is. He may not have sacked Peyton Manning but he got just enough pressure in a key moment to force an inaccurate throw that James Sanders picked off and sealed the game.

It’s hard to always quantify a defense by the statistics. Much of the Patriots defensive stats are skewed due to them having to defend sizable leads. I know everyone hates the “prevent” defense (which is really more of a soft zone that funnels plays to the middle of the field to keep the clock running), and while it has certainly been a little hairy at times this year, the strategy has worked to the tune of 9-2.

I don’t argue that Baldinger is wrong in his assessment of the Patriots defense, I only say it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they put it together in the next five games. As Michael Lombardi says, young teams can practice hard and improve over the course of the year. If that’s true then we definitely haven’t seen the best of the Patriots defense yet.