PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

new york jets

Jets pursuing everyone, Patriots quiet

by

With news that the Jets are “serious” about Nnamdi Asomugha many Patriots fans are worried that when combined with Revis the Patriots won’t be able to complete another pass against them. Personally I’m enjoying the ride with the Jets, they continue to prove to be the Ying to the Patriots Yang, and I like that symmetry in the rivalry.

This is how the Tannenbaum-Ryan Jets do business. They build their team through free agency. They are aggressive on the field and off it and right now they are trying to cash in on the capital Rex Ryan as accrued with two successful and loud seasons. They’re hoping stars will take less money and think that they’ll be the missing link to get the Jets over the hump.

However the maneuvering has been surprising as it’s been well documented that the Jets are over the salary cap. Even with the loose cap-allowed $3million dollars to work with, they’ll need to either cut people or get multiple guys to restructure their contracts to open up the kind of space they’d need.

It’s also been well documented how many free agents the Jets have. They need a starting cornerback. They need a starting safety. And they either need a starting defensive end or hope Muhhamad Wilkerson can step in and start.

So yes, on the surface the thought of Revis and Asomugha together is daunting. But when you look at the potential holes or stop gaps that might occur elsewhere in their defense if the Jets have to dedicate another huge chunk of money to another cornerback, it’s not like there won’t be weaknesses to exploit. Especially when you look at the Patriots tight ends and back field.

From a pure football sense the effect of second awesome outside corner could have in Rex Ryan’s defense is intriguing. It would allow them to get away with even more exotic blitz packages.

As for the Patriots, even with Asomugha the Jets will have to figure out how to stop Gronk and Hernando. They are the ones who are going to make the Patriots offense go for the next four years and will be a huge factor to deal with. At some point the Jets will have to find defensive personnel that can match up with those guys.

Who knows how it will all play out, I’m sure we’ll know more in a couple hours.

by

I’m sorry to have to post this, and if i could delete the last 5 pictures I would, but it’s probably the closest look you’ll ever get at the signature moment of the Super Bowl 42. We’re going to have to watch this catch for the rest of NFL eternity so I’m just trying to make peace with it.

I’ve never been a big “blame the refs” guy. We can argue all day whether or not Eli is in the grasp in photo two, when Jarvis Green not only has his jersey but also jumps on his back, while Seymour’s being held. Credit to Eli for staying on his feet and making a play.

Combined with Tyree’s helmet catch this play was a miracle and a miracle is what it took to beat the 2007 Patriots.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/im-sorry-to-have-to-post-this-and-if-i-could/

Patriots’ offensive third downs vs. Jets (2nd Half Edition)

by

As we saw in our first half edition, the Jets dialed back their usual pressure on third downs and had success, especially in the second quarter, by flooding the short zones with defenders. Not once in the first half did they rush more than 4 on third down, which is a severe departure for a team that blitzed on 80% of third downs in the regular season.

Let’s see if they would continue with that tactic in the second half, or if anticipating the Patriots to adjust to a lack of blitzes, they went back to their heavy pressuring ways.

3Q, 13:13, 14-3 Jets, 3rd & 1 on Pats 46.

Pats: Power I right. Jets: 3 down lineman to defensive left side. Pats run to their left away from Jets down lineman, but Koppen totally whiffs on Devito and he blows the play up. Light almost could’ve saved the day but he misses Devito too. Put it this way, in a short yardage situation if your left tackle is on the ground on top of your center you’re probably not going very far. After a couple good plays to start the second half this stop was a killer and definitely a key moment that would be etched on the 2010 Pats tombstone.

3Q, 8:25, 14-3 Jets, 3rd & 22 on Pats 22.

This was the play after Brady got hammered by Calvin Pace for the SI cover (see below, I kept it small to avoid making anyone vomit). They mailed it in, underneath pass to Hernando for a couple yards. This is where things went from bad to worse. For like the fourth time in the game. So worse to worser?

Only thing worth noting is that the Jets did send 5 rushers here for the first time on 3rd down in the game. They wanted to drill Brady again if the Pats were going to attempt to actually pick up a first with a long pass. Aggressive defense at it’s finest.

3Q, 2:52, 14-3 Jets, 3rd & 9 on Jets 42.

Pats: Empty set, 5 receivers (incl Woodhead/Gronk). Jets: Only 1 down lineman, rest walking around to cause confusion. Rush 5, overloading strong side. Brady gets quick throw off to Branch who eludes Eric Smith’s tackle. Jets are now bringing more pressure and it seems almost like Brady is more conmfortable. One less guy in coverage seems to be opening things up. Pats fans got their first glimmer of hope after this conversion.

Pats scored a few plays later and converted the 2 pointer to close within 3 points. The sad part is that just as the offense found a groove the defense lost their groove. The Jets scored on their next possession to regain a 21-11 lead.

Quick note:

  • Avg Jets scoring drive: 4 plays 45 yards.
  • Avg. Pats scoring drive: 8 plays, 57 yards.

Telling stats there.

4Q, 11:28, 21-11 Jets, 3rd & 1 on Pats 27

Pats: Single back, Welker & Branch at opposite sides, Gronk at H-back. Jets: 3 down linemen, confusion getting set. Quick pass to Welker picks up the first. Ballsy play by Pats to go to the air on this short yardage 3rd down they needed to stay in the game. First time Welker has been targeted on 3rd down. Jets rushed 4 but Pats picked it up. Seems like the Pats are finally hitting their stride again.

4Q, 10:04, 21-11 Jets, 3rd & 6 on Pats 39

Pats: Empty set, Woodhead and Gronk split out. Jets rush 3. Finally Brady looks calm and collected with the Jets dropping 8. Branch beats Revis and Pats pick up another 1st. Unfortunately the Jets D is doing what the Pats D aspires to do… just giving up small chunks of yardage as the clock continues to run out.

4Q, 5:31, 21-11 Jets, 3rd & 13 on Jets 34

Pats: Trips right with Woodhead in the backfield, and Gronk in line on the offensive left. Jets: 3 down lineman, rest walking around to create confusion. Jets rush 4. Brady has plenty of time, can’t find open receiver.

4Q, 2:21, 21-11 Jets, 3rd & 10 on Jets 18

Pats: Empty set, Woodhead split wide. Jets: 2 down lineman, rush 3. Short pass complete to Welker, stopped well short of first down.

Final Thoughts

In the second half the Jets did mix in some additional pressure but for the most part kept with their 3 and 4 man rushes. The Pats half time adjustments included some expanded plays for Julian Edelman with misdirection and screens (great when the Jets were dropping into short zones), as well as some additional power runs for The Law Firm. Really the two key weapons for the Pats in this game were Gronk and Woody, and neither had flawless games.

While the Pats did make some noise in the second half it was too little too late, and they just didn’t make the clutch plays they needed to make. When it came down to a do or die situation the Jets made the plays.

While some may say it’s foolish to read to much into one game I found this exercise on both sides of the ball to be incredibly enlightening and I hope my readers feel the same way. Belichick vs. Ryan is football chess at it’s finest and it’s hard to really grasp what’s going on until you put the game under a microscope.

Like any football game it comes down to execution, especially early on so that you can set a tone. The Pats offense was executing early and late, but in the middle they looked out of sync especially at key moments.If Crumpler holds onto that TD and the Pats are up 7-0 it’s probably a different game.

But there is no question that the Jets were the better team on this day, though I still feel that even without a “deep threat” the Patriots clearly know what it takes to defeat this Jets game plan, and have the personnel to do it. It’s just a question of executing.

Patriots’ offensive third downs vs. Jets (1st Half Edition)

by

Last week we took a look at the Patriots defense on third downs in the playoffs versus the Jets. Today we take a look at the offensive third downs.

The Pats were 5/14 on 3rd down (35%) which shows how well the Jets defense played. The range of third down percentages run from 30% (excellent) to 50% (craptastic). If you’re holding opponents to 30% on 3rd down you have a dominant defense and you’re going to win a lot of games. The Jets converted 46% against the Pats, which was about the Pats defenses average for the season.

Before we get into the video and analysis let’s take a quick look at a couple articles that came out today that provide some good insight into what we’re about to talk about.

First, from Pat Kirwan, comes the examination of spread offenses in the modern NFL. The most interesting nugget to me is that the Jets bring pressure on a whopping 80% of third downs. The next closest team is the Cardinals at 56%.

To counter pressure more and more teams are going to an empty backfield set. This forces teams to show their hand and tell who’s coming and who’s dropping. The Patriots were the number one ranked team when going with the empty set according to Football Outsiders. So clearly something had to give.

Here’s the first half…

1st Q, 10:02, 0-0, 3rd & 4 on Jets 47.

Pats: Shotgun, 1 RB, Trips Right, Gronk left. Jets: Rush 4. Gronk delays like the Pats are in max protect, then releases to the flat, Brady hits him for the first down. Jason Taylor faked blitz, dropped into coverage on Gronk but was not able to make the play.

1st Q, 1:44, 0-0, 3rd & 5 on Jets 7.

Pats: 1RB, 3WR/Hernando. Jets: Rush 3. Crumpler’s dropped TD the play before really hurt. Jets dropped 8 guys along the goaline leaving Brady with nowhere to go. Coverage sack by Shaun Ellis. Looks like Brady wanted Hernando, Branch gets open just as Brady goes down. Also some slight Cromartie PI on Tate in End Zone, but shouldn’t have been called in a playoff game.

2nd Q, 12:53, 3-0, 3rd & 5 on Pats 25.

Pats: 1 RB, 2 TE (Gronk split left), 2 WR. Jets: Rush 4.  Drew Coleman comes off the left side unblocked, sacks Brady. I’m not a protection expert but it looks to me like the protection should’ve slid left here as Light is occupied with Jason Taylor and Vollmer is blocking no one. Mankins, Connolly, Koppen, and eventually Vollmer are blocking just two guys. If protection was there guys were open, especially Gronk. He would still be running.

2nd Q, 9:00, 7-3 Jets, 3rd & 2 on Pats 34.

Pats: empty set, Woodhead flexed out right. 6 man protection, Gronk staying in. Jets rush 4. Brady has Woodhead and Hernando open but Brady looks both of them off, then scrambles, throws a shitty pass behind Gronk. Check the footage of open Woody and Hernando at 6:35. Frustration starting to set in for TFB?

2nd Q, 2:39, 7-3 Jets, 3rd & 1 on Pats 29.

Pats: power I left. Jets: 4 down lineman. Brady QB sneak successful behind Mankins. Nothing that interesting to see here, just the first 3rd down conversion for the Pats since 10:02 of the first quarter.

2Q, 1:19, 7-3 Jets, 3rd & 4 on Pats 38.

Pats: shotgun, Woodhead in backfield, Gronk on line, Welker/Tate right, Branch left. Jets: rush 4. Looks like miscommunication b/t Brady and Gronk. Brady threw the out, Gronk ran the out and up. Welker was wide open as well.

(8:45 – watch Revis’ coverage on Branch. Don’t have to like the guy but damn he’s a good corner)

First half summary

The Pats were pretty much unstoppable the first two possessions of the game. First quarter looked great despite Brady’s interception which was just an overthrow. However as we got into the second quarter it was clear that the offense went out of sync. Brady was missing open guys, there were protection issues, and the receivers were not on the same page as Brady. We also did not see much pressure from the Jets at all, which is crazy when you consider that they were sending blitzers 80% of the time on 3rd down during the regular season.

If we’re heading to locker room at the half I’m assuming the Jets will continue to only rush 3 or 4 guys. Adjustments had to be made to combat that because Brady clearly did not look comfortable when the Jets flooded 8 guys into pass coverage.

Clearly when Rex Ryan and the Jets said they knew how to defeat the Patriots horizontal passing attack it was primarily about flooding the short zones.

What adjustments would both teams make? Find out in part two..

by

Does this look like a team about to go lay a playoff egg against their hated rival? Because that’s what it is…

https://www.patspropaganda.com/does-this-look-like-a-team-about-to-go-lay-a/

by

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1o7_GNNXDs

Patriots Defensive 3rd Down Playoff Analysis (2nd Half edition)

This is where shit gets real, when you’re trailing a playoff game and every 3rd down stop is huge. Let’s see who did and who didn’t show up for the Patriots defense when everything was on the line…

3rd & 5: Draw stopped. Who made the play: Defensive line. The Jets clearly saw the Patriots as susceptible to sub-defense run and they tried quite a few of them. Seems like on every 3rd down it was either a quick inside slant or a draw play. The Pats were ready for a quick pass, with the corners up on the line, and with six defenders in the box they were also ready for this sub-run.

3rd & 1: A gap run succesful. Who Didn’t Make the Play: bunch of guys here, Wilfork submarined and was taken out, Gerard Warren was easily pushed to the other side, and Mayo/Spikes were late on the fill. Credit the Jets O-Line. The Pats had stopped them on 2nd and 1 for no gain on the previous play. No luck this time.

3rd & 6: Incomplete. Who made the play: Rob Ninkovich, for the second time Ninkopoop’s pressure off from the defensive left end pass rush position forces Sanchez into a hurried throw that was incomplete, intended for Jerricho Cotchery who was actually fairly well covered by Darius Butler. Also worth noting this was the play Ninkovich was hurt on. Things went down hill after this, whether it was due to his absence or not is arguable.

3rd & 4: Touchdown to Holmes. Who didn’t make the play: Kyle Arrington. This was basically the game sealer for all intents and purposes, putting the Jets up 21-11 with 13mins left. It came just two plays after the deflating Jerricho Cotchery short reception that turned into a long gain. The Pats rushed three guys but Sanchez let go of the ball before anyone (even Demarcus Ware) could’ve gotten there. Credit to Sanchez and Holmes for just a disgusting throw and catch, that was practically indefensible.

3rd & 4: Run stopped short. Who made the play: Brandon Deaderick, who got good penetration and blew the run up before it could develop. The Jets were just trying to milk the clock at this point but still a good play by Deaderick to keep at least a small glimmer of hope alive. That hope quickly faded.

Summing it all up

The Jets converted just 2 of 5 third downs in the second half, but it was really plays on first and second down that really hurt them all game. The Jets faced just one third down that was longer than 6 yards. That is insane and a clear sign that the Pats were not winning the early down battles.

Really this defense gave the offense a chance to stay in the game through three quarters but in the 4th quarter the wheels fell off.

But really this is about what we saw from this defense all year long, minus their signature turnovers. Credit Mark Sanchez for playing airtight, mistake-free football. One errant pass could’ve been the difference, but he didn’t make that mistake.

When you look at what did the Patriots in on third down in this game, it was never Sanchez sitting pretty with all the time in the world because the pass rush couldn’t get there. It was the quick passing game, and lapses in coverage that killed the Patriots. Although it’s clear that the Patriots were not dominating the line of scrimmage on first and second down either.

The selection of Ras-I Dowling makes a little more sense to me after really looking closely at what wasn’t working for the Pats this day. He’s another big, physical corner who should be able to nullify those quick passes by being physical on the line, and he should also be able to shore up a secondary that was far more responsible for the Jets staying on the field than any poor pass rush.

(Source: http://www.youtube.com/)

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-defensive-3rd-down-playoff-analysis-2nd/