new england patriots

Just wrapped up a huge training camp preview for B/R which will be up in a week or so, that played a big part into things being a little slow here at the Ministry of PatsPropaganda.

But it was good to really take a closer look at all 90 Pats players on the roster, and prepare for what should be a fascinating training camp.

Here are just some quick thoughts on all things swirling around the Patriots, including the Aaron Hernandez sitch, which I’ve proudly avoided for the most part, as tempting as it’s been.

– Let’s get Hernando out of the way first. First, this blog is about football: team-building, game-planning and analysis, along with general fantertainment. So I’ve felt fine not covering the Hernandez murder investigation simply because he’s not on the Patriots anymore and this is not a murder blog.

But of course now from a football standpoint it’s devolved to Hernandez’s departure being the straw that breaks the Patriots’ back. We’re getting inundated with “The Pats are vulnerable”, and Brady’s lost all his receivers, etc.

Let’s be honest, the Pats winning the AFC East is boring to the rest of the NFL, and everyone like to jump all over any major personnel departure or misstep as potentially being the thing that ends their run of 10 AFCE titles in 12 years. It’s fine, that’s the only savory take to have because no one wants to read the truth, that all things considered it most likely won’t matter, because they have the best coaching staff, best quarterback, and an entrenched system that the great majority of their players are returning to.

So what’s everyone leaving out? The defense. It follows a trend in football analysis where teams never get much credit for continuity. Your defense sucked last year and added no major high-price free agents? They’ll suck again.

But the Pats defense was 15th in defensive DVOA last season, just above-average and return every major impact player. Add in Tommy Kelly and Adrian Wilson and it’s hard to say this defense won’t be better. Even moreso when you consider how much better they were with just Aqib Talib in the mix for the second half of the season.

And when you weigh the snaps, the Pats had the 4th-youngest defense in the NFL last year. Is it that much of a stretch to think that with this continuity and a full season with Talib that the Pats could be a top-10 defense? I don’t think so.

What it comes down to is that the tide will now shift, where the personality of the 2010-2012 Pats was outscoring opponents and holding on, they’ll now have to be the team that keeps games close, then come through in the end like they used to. Not an easy personality to establish, but in the simplest terms, the defense must grow into one that doesn’t just not-lose games…they have to WIN them.

People fear change, and they hate unpredictability. And the Pats with Welker, Gronk and Hernandez were predictable, for better and worse. The good – they’d stomp teams that weren’t prepared to deal with them. The bad – they were an easy match-up for teams who had the personnel to deal with them (and weren’t afraid of them, aka Giants/Ravens, occasionally the Jets).

It’s a brave new Patriots world. Who’s Brady throwing to on a critical third down on week one? I don’t know. No one does. Including the opponents, and that gives them an advantage to make up for the reliability of the players that they lost.

This offseason on offense was a half-step back to take two steps forward. There will be growing pains, and moments when the offense sputters, but down the road they should be set up for the long term, even after Brady hangs them up. Personally I am excited to watch it unfold.

If the defense can continue the trajectory started during the re-build of 2009, they should be a squad that garners some recognition this year. But no one is talking about that now, and I, just like the Pats, like it that way.