PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

new england patriots

4 Things Patriots Should Have Learned From Giant Super Bowl Losses

by

I’m not really sure which Super Bowl loss to the Giants shocked me more.

In 2007, it seemed inconceivable that Eli Manning would be the one quarterback to hand the Patriots a loss, much less that the Giants defense would hold one of the most prolific offenses in history to a mere 14 points.

In 2012, it seemed like everything had lined up for the Patriots revenge tour. They dispatched the Broncos, the team that ended their season in 2005, the Ravens, the team that had ended their season in 2009, and now had another crack at Eli and the Giants.

Different year, same result. The Pats clung to a fourth-quarter lead, only to see Eli lead a miraculous final drive for the win.

So what should the Patriots have learned from those two losses? Here are four things that stand out:

1. Get Offense Going Early: In 2007, the Giants held the ball for a whopping 16-play, 10 minute opening drive. Yes, it ended in a field goal, but that seemed to set a tone early on. In 2012, the Giants opened with a 10-play, six-minute drive, then, after punting, the Pats gave it right back with a safety.

In both Super Bowls, it was nearly the end of the first quarter before the Patriots put together any kind of a sustained drive. A fast start would be a welcome change this time around and we know how devastating the Patriots can be with an early lead.

2. Protect Brady Up The Gut: This isn’t a news flash, the Patriots offensive line got dominated in both Super Bowl, especially up the gut, which is essentially kryptonite to the Pats favored quick-passing offense. Justin Tuck was at the center of it, combining for 4 sacks in the two Super Bowls, along with 3 QB hits in 2012. 

Bryan Stork’s return to practice this week was a good sign for the Pats. They’ll need him, Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell to have solid games if the Pats offense is to find its stride. Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer will be tested as well, but it’s the quick pressure up the middle that is most worrisome.

3. Stay Balanced: In the two Super Bowl losses, the Patriots run/pass balance was 28 percent run, 72 percent pass. This only fed into a Giants pass rush pinning back their ears and getting after Brady. In 2012, the Pats only had the ball for 22:55, and had only one drive that lasted more than five minutes. Running the ball is key to controlling the game and burning the clock.

The Pats must try to do a better job of staying committed to the run. It’s not always easy, but they cannot forget about LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen getting their share of carries, even if they’re not having success or behind.

4. Make the Last Stop: In spite of everything I just laid out, the Patriots were two defensive stops at the end of both Super Bowls from winning. We saw the defense come through against the Ravens with an interception and it’s a good bet they’ll need to come through in the clutch once again since this Seahawks team has a knack for late comebacks.

Put a Pin In Deflategate

by

Today we heard from Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and in a nutshell, their response to the ongoing “Deflategate” controversy, is that they don’t know how 11 of 12 footballs lost some pressure.

Belichick didn’t care one bit about the PSI of any footballs and seemed to go out of his way to mention he forces his team to play with much worse balls than are ever used in games.

This almost seemed a shot at the Colts for being crybabies, because no one is arguing that a slightly deflated football had any impact whatsoever on the AFC Championship.

As you might expect, I tend to take Belichick and Brady at their word because the way the facts are adding up, I don’t see a huge case against them. And at this point, they are the only ones who have come forward and talked to the media about this situation.

As for the other side, I don’t know what to believe of the accusations anymore and neither the Colts, nor the Ravens (who either voluntarily or involuntarily have joined this goat rodeo) will come forward.

First, we heard D-Quell Jackson alerted his team to this problem. NOPE.

Then we heard the Ravens tipped the Colts off about the Patriots using under inflated balls. NOPE.

So what do we know as fact? Not much. And I’m really starting to question how well the refs tested the balls before the game.

This reddit thread (take it for what it’s worth) uses science (oooooh!) to prove it’s possible the balls could simply lose this kind of pressure given the elements. And let’s remember the difference between legal and illegal is imperceptible. 

The rain had more effect on the ball than losing that bit of air would’ve.

The original timeline (sorry to dip into Serial mode here) had the balls being checked pregame, then somehow losing PSI before being switched out at halftime.

The conspiracy theorists say the Patriots must’ve deflated them somehow before the game. A former ballboy said it would be “very difficult” to secretly deflate 11 balls in that time.

Why would the Patriots run a full covert operation for something that would make no noticeable difference? I know they like to push the line, but that borders on the absurd.

Outside of a smoking gun video of a Patriots employee willfully letting air out of the balls, I’m not sure how the NFL can do much more than levy a fine in the $25,000-$50,000 range. And even then, if the atmosphere was responsible and not a human Patriot employee, even that seems excessive.

Maybe there’s more inside info to come out since the league hasn’t even spoken to Brady yet, but right now, there’s not much of a case against the Pats.

It’s fun to go into outrage mode, but this story seems to be quickly losing the grand controversy steam it’s had for the last three days.

The final chip to fall will be when the NFL finally hands down their punishment, if there even is any.

At this point, I’m really starting to wonder. And maybe in the end this will just be a charade of outrage that does nothing but give the Pats a legitimate “us against the world” mentality for the Super Bowl.

Maybe Deflategate will be the best gift Patriots fans have gotten in the last 10 years.

Patriots vs. Colts AFC Championship All-22 Thoughts: Defense Edition

by

Lost in the blowout of this game was how the Patriots defense put in perhaps their best defensive effort of the season against Andrew Luck and the Colts. The only scoring drive the Colts put together was one that got two key penalties and a miraculous catch by TY Hilton. Otherwise it was shut down city and that bodes well for a team that will face another huge challenge in Russell Wilson and the Seahawks.

Here’s the drive chart:

Pats counter the Colts 12 personnel with their base nickel, and the same CB-WR matchups from the first game (24-87, 39-80, 25-13). Strong interior play to stop the run on first down, then get penetration with Collins on a second down blitz, set up a third-and-long.

Colts go to 3WR/2TE on third down, with an 87-10-80 bunch formation in the right slot. Hilton (25 cover) is iso X on the backside, while Allen (91 cover) is sent out far right.

The Pats bring in Ayers on the defensive right edge, shifting Chandler to the left edge with Nikovich sliding inside. Jones/Nink run a stunt, with Nink looping to the outside and getting just enough pressure to force an off throw from Luck. Defer, three-and-out, no better way to start a game.

After the botched punt return, the Colts are now in a 0-7 hole and put together a 12-play drive.

Revis slides to Moncrief on this drive but that’s because Wayne isn’t out there. Otherwise the matchups and personnel remain the same. Colts have some success early running the ball, but the Pats recover after they get 12 yards on an off-tackle on first down.

Third-and-3, Ayers comes on, Chandler slides inside. Malcolm Butler makes his first appearance on the outside with Revis out and does a good job on Moncrief, while they double Reggie Wayne with Ryan and Ayers, who dropped. Would’ve been a stop but BROWNER HOLDING!

Colts roll out their 3 TE set and the Pats counter with their regular 4-3 defense with Casillas at LB. Ninkovich tips the Luck pass to force a third down. So far Nink has been balling.

Colts convert a 3rd-and-5 to Fleener as he gets a free release and doesn’t have Browner on him for what seems like the first time this game. Collins tackles him immediately, but it’s a case where the pressure and coverage are just a moment too slow.

Two drops by Herron and an incomplete to Wayne and the Colts have to try a field goal that they miss. Targets going at Collins downfield and Logan Ryan are not surprising.

Another deep shot on Ryan covering Nicks is overthrown. Small window there, but the ball had to be on the money and it wasn’t. Colts generally sloppy as the Pats are rotating guys in and out and not giving anything away matchup wise.

I think part of what the Pats learned in games like Green Bay is that if your CB-WR matchups are predictable it’s easy to gameplan. Packers knew they were going after Ryan and had seemed to be ready to throw heavy to his one receiver all game. With a constant rotation from almost down-to-down, it makes the offense figure it out at the line. This should be a similar plan against Seattle.

Now comes the best drive of the day for the Colts. Let’s see what went right besides some penalty calls.

Colts go back to their 3-TE set then try to spread the field and have some success, coupled with Wilfork’s kinda dumb penalty.

Just an absolute sick throw-and-catch on Hilton’s 36 yarder. Pretty much unstoppable. Look at the coverage by Arrington.

Colts get another break on a third down with a hold on Collins. Which I couldn’t really see.

Another two broken-down play completions to Fleener sets the Colts up for their only touchdown of the game.

From here on out in the second half they don’t have another possession longer than 6 plays, for the most part in this early going, the tone was set as was the defensive gameplan.

Nothing was easy for the Colts, most of their big plays were either one-time things or came off penalties. Even some of the 10+ completions were on breakdowns where the guy just got open late after the coverage had held.

The physicality has been impressive to watch, the Patriots defense was dictating for the first time in the playoffs in a long time.

GIFs That Defined Patriots AFC Championship Win Over Colts

by

The Patriots steamrolled the Colts once again, en route to their sixth AFC conference title in the last fourteen seasons. In a blowout of this magnitude, it’s hard to pick the individual plays that the game hinged upon.

The easiest place to start is on the muffed punt catch by Josh Cribbs that set up the Patriots’ first score. This is exactly what the Colts did not want to do – hand the Pats an easy opportunity for an early lead.

photo AFCCGpunt_zpsddodbolq.gif

The Pats finish the first drive with an impressive run by Blount where he probably could’ve been stopped but just kept fighting.

photo AFCCG1_zps8xxfho7r.gif

As soon as this next pass below was completed, I called Develin would get in. He’s just too much of a load to be stopped on the half-yard line.

photo AFCCG2_zpsus3sv6ve.gif

Of all of these plays, the touchdown to Solder was really the one that sealed it. I’ve been waiting for them to throw to Solder ever since they drafted the former tight end, just like I was waiting for Edelman to throw one. Never thought they’d bust both of them out in back-to-back weeks.

photo IND CCG1_zpszzeiv00u.gif

Now the blowout is on, so let’s just enjoy some of these touchdowns. I don’t know how anyone defends this one on Gronk.

photo IND CCG 2_zps8scglngd.gif

Next, things go from worse to worser as Revis explodes from the wash to pick off a floater from Luck. I don’t think I was alone in just not wanting Revis to get hurt after snagging this one.

photo IND CCG 3_zps35hy3s6o.gif

Finally comes another tough run by Blount, taking it in from 13 yards out with another hard nose run that sums up how things went for the Colts trying to stop the Patriots on the ground the last few games.

photo IND CCG 4_zpsyngtpz6j.gif

Find the entire 2014 season of GIFs That Defined the Games HERE.

The Belichick-Brady Legacy Is Defined by Wins, Not Tapes or Tucks | Bleacher Report

by

The Belichick-Brady Legacy Is Defined by Wins, Not Tapes or Tucks | Bleacher Report

Sincerely doubt any of my readers need to read this, but it really sums up the truth about the Spygate thing better than anything else I’ve read in a while. So not to bring that whole thing up again, but it’s a nice dose of perspective.

Which Hoodie Should Bill Belichick Wear for the AFC Championship?

by

As you probably know by now, I put together database of Bill Belichick’s hoodie history that you can find here. While this has primarily been aimed at figuring out Belichick’s performance as classified by his signature hoodie choice, we can also use it to take a stab at what history tells us he should wear this weekend.

First, here’s the latest major hoodie stats since 2003, when the Reebok NFL equipment hoodie Belichick made famous was first introduced.

Now, let’s take a closer look at what Belichick has worn in his eight AFC championship games with the Patriots.

My determination is that Belichick should roll with the 2014 Blue Hoodie with the sleeves, just like he wore last week against the Ravens. Never has he worn a blue hoodie in an AFC championship. He’s 3-1 this season in it, with the one loss being a meaningless one in Week 17 against the Bills.

Belichick is also 13-2 all-time in a blue hoodie with sleeve intact. It’s his most dominant hoodie/sleeve combo.

The weather seems to be lining up favorably for this hoodie, unlike 2007 or 2013, when cold and warm weather respectively forced him out of the hoodie.

Just as long as he doesn’t cut the sleeves. He’s 1-3 in AFCCGs with his forearms out.

New England Patriots Game Plan: AFC Championship vs. Colts

by

The Patriots are set to take on the Colts for the right to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 49. The conference championships are my favorite games of the season, and with the Pats hosting their third in four years, it doesn’t get much better than this.

The Super Bowl is the big game of course, but its neutral site and over-the-top production give it almost more of an exhibition game feel. These two games on Sunday, with homefield advantage and the elements in full effect, are the two best games of real football in the NFL season.

By now, we’ve heard plenty about how the Patriots have manhandled Andrew Luck in his three games against them, including last year’s AFC Divisional game. In those three games, Luck has six touchdowns and eight interceptions, with a 53.8 completion percentage.

Can New England continue their recent dominance over Luck and the Colts? Or does Indy finally turn the tide? With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, the stakes don’t get much higher.

Here’s my game plan for the Pats to get back to their sixth Super Bowl in the last 14 seasons.

photo ind 4_zps88hgrz34.gif

Offensive Game Plan

In the last three games agains the Colts, the Patriots have put up 595 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. This includes 201 yards and four touchdowns by Jonas Gray earlier this season and 166 yards and four touchdowns by LeGarrette Blount in last year’s divisional round.

What does this add up to? Until the Colts prove they can stop the run, there’s no reason not to come out pounding the rock at them once again, even if they’ve been much better against it since the Pats last saw them.

The return of Arthur Jones, Chandler’s big brother, should help the run-stopping effort, but it’s still worth testing early on. 

With rainy conditions possible, this will put a huge priority on ball security. So it was no surprise to see Bill Belichick stressing this point earlier this week in practice. Nothing can shift a game quicker than turnovers.

And what if the Colts defense shows up with something to prove against the run, as they probably should? The focus shifts to the passing game where Rob Gronkowski (208 yards on 11 catches, 3 TDs) and Julian Edelman (192 yards on 16 catches and 1 TD) have also been very good against the Colts in the last three games (only two for Gronk, and two and change for Edelman after he last lost after bruising his thigh in Week 11).

The Colts mimicked the Seahawks defensive game plan against the Broncos last week, taking away the medium throws, forcing short passes, which they’d come down hard on, or long throws.

This has been an effective game plan against the Patriots offense in recent years, however the presence of Bradon LaFell and a healthy Gronk no longer makes it ideal. Tom Brady also won’t miss as many throws as Peyton Manning did last week. So the Colts have to pick their poison, and once they do, it’s up to the Pats to force the other down their throat.

The Colts were also the 31st ranked team in Football Outsiders’ DVOA when it came to covering running backs, so perhaps a surprise wrinkle will be some Shane Vereen-centric passing plays.

Defensive Game Plan

photo collinssack22_zpsb0779937.gif

The Patriots were defensively dominant over the Colts earlier this season. Can they do it again, or was that just one of those games where one team was just on fire. I’d expect things to be a bit more balanced this time around.

Holding the Colts to just 19 rushing yards in the first meeting was an impressive effort, but the Colts have found more consistency in their ground game since with Dan Herron, though they still seems far from explosive. Herron also draws concern for his pass-catching ability. Expect a heavy dose of Dont’a Hightower on him.

Coby Fleener was one guy who had some success last time around, finishing with 7 catches for 144 yards. He saw some of Brandon Browner last time, and perhaps that makes sense again on certain downs, or maybe using Devin McCourty would be better as well. Fellow tight end threat Dwayne Allen left the last contest early, so the presence of two tight ends who can catch should be a concern for the Patriots.

The statistical weak link of the Patriots pass coverage has been against tight ends, and with dominant outside corners, Fleener and Allen should be a significant part of the gameplan. Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty and Jamie Collins should draw a fair amount of coverage responsibility on them.

What’s clear is that taking away T.Y. Hilton’s explosive over-the-top plays is priority one. Last time, Hilton had just 24 yards on three catches. Replicating that kind of performance might be a tall task, but Hilton has to be a major focus. That’s why it’s likely he sees a lot of Darrelle Revis in this one. Revis was on Reggie Wayne a good chunk of last game, but Wayne’s deteriorating skills no longer require that kind of attention.

At some point, Andrew Luck is going to play a perfect game against the Pats. Even last week’s win over the Broncos featured two interceptions. The Pats cannot wait on a Luck mistake to give them the game.  But they have a knack for making them happen in the big games, or at least they used to…

Ty Law 2003 AFCCG Int photo ty_zpsa9cbc531.gif

Points of Emphasis

1. Run Until They Stop Us: As mentioned above, the Pats have run wild over the Colts the last three games and until they prove they can stop it, why stop? LeGarrette Blount is now in the mix, which takes away some of the worry of relying on Jonas Gray again in a playoff game, where his ball security worries me. Still Blount can take a bit to get going, so Gray, or even Brandon Bolden could see some carries early. Can the offensive line get it done with Josh Kline in there? That’s a question, but would be a bigger concern if this was going to be a pass-heavy gameplan against some great interior guys. The Pats won’t hesitate to shift to a more pass-heavy approach if the Colts front plays inspired against the run. But until they stop it, run it down their throat. There isn’t a simpler game plan in the world than running at a team who can’t stop it. It drains the clock, opens up the play action game and generally demoralizes a defense. There’s no easier route to victory for New England if their ground game is firing on all cylinders.

2. Nickel Run Defense: The Patriots were in sub defense for most of the first matchup and anytime that is the case, stopping the run with only six in the box is key. With Sealver Siliga and Chandler Jones in the mix after missing the last tilt in Indy, the Pats front looks stronger on paper after playing a mix of Dominique Easley and Chris Jones next to Wilfork. If the Pats start getting gashed in nickel they’ll have to move to a heavier front and that will open them up against the pass. There’s little doubt the Pats best personnel is from the nickel defense. The more they can stay in that, the better off they’ll be. Of course, spying Luck on third downs should be another consideration.

3. Hold Onto the Ball: It was shocking and disgusting that the Patriots put the ball on the turf TWICE in the early going last week against the Ravens. That cannot happen this week, especially with a run-heavy approach. Nothing made me happier than to hear Belichick was out on the practice field trying to pry the ball loose himself this week. We saw last week how quickly a bad turnover can shift the scoreboard. Ball protection is huge.

4. Finish:  The final score of the previous matchup this year skews things a bit, but it was a 28-20 game in the fourth quarter before the Pats pulled away. The Colts have plenty of recent history of great and seemingly impossible comebacks. This one won’t be over until it’s over and the Pats cannot get overconfident that they’re rolling to another blowout, even if they get a double-digit lead. 60 minutes to get to the Super Bowl. They’ll need their best effort for the entire length of the game.

5. Win: The Patriots are one game from the Super Bowl, a spot they’ve been in, and underperformed in two of the last three seasons. And even the one AFC Championship they did win, they were generally outplayed. It’s time for the Patriots to put together a dominant AFC Championship game of great football. They’re the better team on paper, but they have to prove it on the field. If they play with that kind of chip on their shoulder, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be headed to Arizona for a shot at ring number four. 

photo zz_zps52706eae.gif