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The Best of PatsPropaganda This Week

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Every Saturday we bring you a post only of the best links from here on PatsProp and from around the internet. It’s not often you’ll find a fan base as bummed out after an overtime win over their most hated rival as you did this week with Patriots fans.

Here’s what you might’ve missed:

PatsPropaganda Analysis

5 Points of Emphasis for Patriots vs. Rams

Patriots defense can’t get off the field on third-and-long

PatsPropaganda & Frenz Podcast NEW

Notes on Football Outsiders Patriots DVOA Rankings: Week 7

Notes on PFF’s Patriots grades: Week 7 Jets

Trying to keep a positive Patriots perspective

Under-reaction to the Jets gift to the Patriots

Local/National Analysis

October surprise: Five reasons to be excited about the Patriots prospects

One scout’s breakdown of Patriots-Rams: Another NFC West test for New England – WEEI | Christopher Price

Fourth-and-wrong – BostonHerald.com

Patriots pass rush will have to get better – Patriots – Boston.com

Breaking Down Rob Ninkovich’s Clutch Plays for New England Patriots | Bleacher Report

Late execution is killing them – Patriots – Boston.com

5 takeaways from Patriots-Jets – Extra Points – Boston.com

Lastly, the greatest Madden prediction of all time:

5 Points of Emphasis for Patriots vs. Rams

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This week on Mike D’s 5 Keys we’re going the super obvious route. Sometimes these are abstract things, random points of emphasis we think the Pats need to focus on to win the game, but this week we’re just going to make it all about the Patriots doing the things they’ve been bad at doing all season long.

Unlike the Patriots, the Rams have been able to beat both the Seahawks and the Cardinals, so a victory over them would be a nice way to end the first half of the season.

This is a big game for the Patriots in an exhibition-type atmosphere, which could be good experience if they are lucky enough to make it to the biggest exhibition game of them all, aka the Super Bowl.

Any time the team can play on a big stage it’s good. Especially for the youngest team in Bill Belichick’s tenure.

The Pats need the bye week to regroup and get healthy, and if they’re able to end it on a positive note it could be even more of a catalyst for the second half of the season.

My 5 Super Obvious Points of Emphasis…

1. Only give up THREE 20+ passing plays – I wouldn’t be so bold as to ask for zero, but when you’re averaging six per game you gotta take what you can get. There’s little doubt the Rams are going to toss some bombs up, and with Brian Schottenheimer running the offense we know what kind of game to expect.

The Rams have a great one-two punch in Jackson and Richardson at running back, so we’ll see a lot of them, and then a lot of play action bombs away.

Our safeties cannot bite on play action!!!!!

And I never thought I’d be begging it for it but we must BEND, NOT BREAK!!!

Well, only break three times. I can live with that.

2. Defensive third downs under 40% – Really 40% is sub-average but when you’ve been over 50% (dreadful) three of the last four weeks you have to adjust expectations.

It would also be helpful to be under 30% on third and longs specifically since they’ve been averaging 41% on those for the season.

If the defense continues to be consistent with their run defense they should force a number of third down situations. But it doesn’t matter if you force them if you can’t get off the field.

I don’t care if it’s blitzing pressure or coverage just get off the field on third down.

3. Protect the edges – The one thing we can’t allow on offense is for this to become a Giants-esque attack from the Rams, and that begins with edge rushers Chris Long and Robert Quinn.

Luckily the Pats are strongest at the edges with Sebastian Vollmer turning in a stout season.

But there could be problems in the middle too. I loved Michael Brockers coming out of LSU, and he could cause problems, especially if we’re sans Mankins and/or Connolly.

There’s no secret, get to Brady with four, keep seven in coverage, and you’ve got a chance to shut down the Patriots offense.

As long as Brady has time, and there’s no chaos in his face, there shouldn’t be any problems. Let’s not let there be any problems.

4. Catch the football – It hasn’t been obvious to me but the Patriots are actually leading the league in drops with 17 in seven games.

Brandon Lloyd’s got five drops to lead the team. It’s time for players like him and Gronk (four) and Wes (four) to start stepping it up.

There’s no excuse. Start executing.

5. Finish – We decided Finish would replace “Win” as our fifth and final key last week and what happened? The Patriots actually finished a game off! So it’s back, obviously.

The Pats have had their fair share of big games they couldn’t finish off since 2006, but this year it’s been a major problem early in the season as well. Dare I hope we’re just getting it out of our system early!?

We can only hope that last week’s performance by Rob Ninkovich will help spark the revolution in future crunch times, because Brady and the offense were still lacking that killer touch until their backs were against the wall against the Jets.

They must finish on both sides of the ball, in the red zone and at the end of the game. 

These are the five areas that have haunted the 2012 Patriots thus far. It would be wonderful to see improvement in all of them, but I doubt we will. 

If there’s one thing I’d most hope for it’s that they manage the deep balls better. Those are absolute killers.

Otherwise, let’s get into the bye week healthy, get healthier, regroup and make another run at the shiny silver trophy.

Patriots defense can’t get off the field on third-and-long

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The Patriots defense has been destroyed by analysts for the better part of three years now for a myriad of specific reasons, and lately the big problem everyone wants to talk about is the back end of the defense.

There’s no question the Pats have struggled against the deep ball, however another area that they’ve had problems in is their defense in third-and-long  situations. For our purposes here we’re defining “long” as 6 or more yards.

Here’s a look at some Patriots teams in the past, and how they’ve fared on 3rd down with 6 or more yards to go. These numbers signify the percent of time the Pats defense failed and gave up a first down:

  • 2001 – 30.2%
  • 2003 – 29.1%
  • 2004 – 28.4%
  • 2007 – 24.8%
  • 2008 – 35.7%
  • 2009 – 28.2%
  • 2010 – 34.5%
  • 2011 – 30.9%
  • 2012 (thru 7 games) – 41.7%

As you can see so far in 2012 getting off the field on third and long has been a problem. And even when you look at the Pats in situations where it’s 3rd-and-7-plus yards they’re still at a 41.0%.

Let’s compare to a few other teams around the NFL this year for some more context:

  • Ravens – 23.6%
  • Saints – 27.9% (32nd in yards/game given up)
  • Bills – 32.7% (32nd in yards allowed)
  • Texans – 15.4% (what a match-up vs Pats O this will be)
  • Jets – 41.1% (well that makes me feel slightly better)
  • Dolphins – 22.0% (what?)

Ironically the Pats have had fewer 3rd-and-longs than any of the other teams mentioned above, which is clearly indicative of how many long balls they’re giving up. But even when they do get teams in a favorable 3rd down situation, where they can force a punt and get the ball back to the offense, they’re not delivering like they have in the past.

Of course for me this comes back to getting more pass rushers on the field in these situations, however at this time the Pats just don’t have the personnel to be able to replace Vince Wilfork with a more up-the-field type.

It seems that Wilfork has been left out there for protection against the run, but it’s not the run that’s been the problem. Just once has a third-and-long been converted via run this year and that was a scramble by Jake Locker. Otherwise no team has even attempted a run when it’s less than 10-yards to go.

Perhaps Myron Pryor is the answer, but who knows if/when he’ll be back and at what capacity. This should surely be an area the Pats need to address during the bye week.

Trying to keep a positive Patriots perspective

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Well, another week of killing the Patriots defense has begun around the interwebs, and really, there’s not much to say that hasn’t already been said multiple times through the first seven games of the 2012 season.

It’s been a while since we’ve had a Patriots team that has struggled this much early in the season, especially with problems so glaring that they just can’t seem to solve.

There is so much frustration surrounding the Patriots right now. For the first time in five years they actually look like they have a legit front defensive seven. The pressure could be more consistent at times, but they are as good at stopping the run as any Patriots team in recent memory. It’s just the back end that cannot execute pass defense at an NFL level.

I’m not overly optimistic it will happen, but if this defense could ever just cut down the big plays they give up through the air from 6 per game to 3, they’d be one of the better defenses in the NFL. Of course that is easier said that done. But the simplicity of the solution is right there staring us in the face, and it’s maddening.

The offense is still looking for an identity, and Brandon Lloyd picked the wrong game to get a case of the dropsies. The Pats couldn’t stretch the Jets defense out at all and as a result the offense sputtered until crunch time, when clutch Brady made what has recently been a rare appearance. If Lloyd makes a couple of those catches it would’ve really opened things up.

There are a lot of teams out there with a lot more problems than the Pats have. I still have full confidence that by the end of the year the offense will be clicking. What it really comes down to is tightening up the pass coverage. That’s really it. Fix one thing and the entire team improves by leaps and bounds. And if the front seven continues to improve it will make it even easier on them. The elements are there, but they have to start improving.

Get Gregory and Chung back healthy and hopefully that will be the spark, but it’s hard to be overly optimistic since even when those two were out there we were getting torched.

The Pats now enter the final stretch before Thanksgiving and that’s when the proverbial shit starts getting real. These next four games are not exactly a murder’s row of quarterbacks so really no matter how much improvement the defense possibly shows it will always come with the caveat that it wasn’t against any elite QBs. But at this point I’d take shutting down Sam Bradford as something to build off of.

Still, the next four games give the Pats the chance to not only improve on the back end and in closing out games, but put a firm stranglehold on the division by beating the Bills and Jets.

There’s no question there are no more easy games this season, regardless of the opposition if the defense continues to allow these kind of passing yards. But I still believe it’s at least possible for the Pats to improve and be the “team no one wants to face”. They just need to get to the bye, try to get a little more healthy and then start putting it all together.

Maybe it’s time to take a page from the Giants and eek out an average regular season before peaking in January. We’ve seen plenty of unstoppable September/October Patriots teams, and say what you will about their 2012 performances but at least they’re something novel.

It’s been painful to watch at times, but let’s keep the lesson of 2007 in mind. It only matters how you finish, and the Pats are far from finished.

Under-reaction to the Jets gift to the Patriots

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“They are who we thought they were.”

That’s what I kept thinking as I watched Sunday’s ugly win unfold before me. It was almost cruelly the exact same set up we’ve been watching for what seems like years now.

Pats up by double digits. Pats slowly wilt, only to see it stolen away at the last possible moment. Unless they get a turnover, which they did.

Offensively I am encouraged. Slightly. Their performance with the game on the line cannot be swept under the rug. But otherwise it was generally gross, with a slew of drops and an inconsistent line that was missing two starters.  They got the job done, barely, with it all on the line.

So it’s a positive to build off of, however small. Let’s give Mankins next week off too and come back blazing after the bye.

Defensively they’ve still got a ways to go. Obvs. It’s so frustrating to see a weakness exploited again and again, no matter the quarterback or receiver. By this point you’d have hoped for at least a bit of improvement. But no, it’s the same old story with the 2012 Pats, adding another 6 to their average 5.5 20+ plays per game.

They show flashes at times, but it’s never sustained. Stopping the run they’re fine. But when Mark Sanchez is completing 68% of his passes you know something with the pass defense is wrong.

The only thing Pats fans can hope for is that Gregory and Chung come back soon and remain healthy and starting together the rest of the year. If we have to endure another season of hodgepodge on the back end it’s going to be a long season that isn’t going to end pretty.

I believe the offense will start to hit their stride after the bye. They’re still searching for an identity. I don’t know what to expect from the defense. You’d like to think they’ll start to catch on, but at this point it looks like a long shot.

But hey, maybe this is one of those Giants-type seasons where we finish 9-7 but get uber-hot at the right moment?