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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 10 at New York Giants

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It’s hard to believe that the Patriots haven’t beaten Eli and the Giants since they clinched 16-0 in December 2007. I remember that night especially well because the next morning my wife and I found out we were going to have our first kid. Yes, that was quite the 24 hours.

Now that zygote is a seven year old and has never been on the Earth for a Patriots win over the Giants. Crazy.

We all remember the Super Bowls, and I think Eli phrased it well this week when he said they just caught the Pats on the right days. Let’s be honest, the 2011 Patriots probably didn’t have much business winning the Super Bowl, especially with Gronk on one leg, so it’s still amazing to me how close that team came when you consider just how bad their defense was.

It seemed though like everything had lined up for the 2011 Pats. First they knocked off the team that ended their season in 2005, the Broncos. Then they got revenge on the team that ended them in 2009, the Ravens. Finally came a chance to beat the team that killed their perfect season. It just seemed like fate that Brady and Belichick would get their fourth against the the Giants. But alas it unfolded in almost the same exact excruciating fashion as Super Bowl 42.

I’ve only seen Tom Brady
 lose two games live in person, and the 2011 regular season game against the Giants was one of them. We had a great pregame tailgate with Nick Stevens (aka Fitzy), Erik Frenz and the mystery man himself @PatriotsSB49. It felt like we were exercising some demons that day, but again it was the same kind of result with Eli tearing our heart out with a last minute drive.

None of the Patriots will say it this week, but I’ll say it: A win over the Giants this weekend means something. Yes, they are almost completely different teams than the last time they met, even if the quarterbacks and coaches are the same. Yes, winning Super Bowl 49 took some of the stink off of SB42 and SB46, but still, beating the Giants in their own stadium will put a final nail in those losses, at least until we see the Giants in the Super Bowl again, which I’m not holding my breath for. 

Here’s the gameplan to finally take down Eli and Coughlin.

Offensive Gameplan

Now things are starting to get a bit interesting. The last few weeks I slipped into a “just do what we do” mode with the offensive gameplans, but now, with injuries to Sebastian Vollmer and Dion Lewis, there has to be some management going on.

You look at the Giants defense and it’s a shadow of what it was in those Super Bowl years. Yes, JPP is back and should help their pass rush but if you turn on any of their games this year, especially the Saints one, they’re just getting torched.

That might lead you to think this is a ‘spread ‘em out and eat ‘em alive’ gameplan, which is probably what they’ll do, but that begs the question of how will they replace Dion Lewis?

Let me start by saying Brandon Bolden is a valuable player to this team. He is an excellent special teams player and that shouldn’t sound like a backhanded compliment because the Patriots have built their dynasty on great special teams as much as (almost) anything. However Bolden is not a playmaker as a running back. He’s going to get what’s there and then he’s going down the first guy who tries to tackle him. 

So I think James White
 plays a ton in this one, at least early on. He’s not going to be as good as Dion Lewis was, but can he be a close proximity to what Shane Vereen was? Yes. Can he develop enough confidence and experience over the last eight regular season games to do what Vereen did in last year’s playoffs? Yes. He just needs the chance, but I think just as Lewis defined the new evolution of the offense in the first half of the season, White can define it in the second half. He’ll just need some time and experience to really find a groove, but the Pats really have no other options at this point and he does have the talent to make the plays necessary in this major role in the Pats’ offense.

The other issue will be at tackle, where I’m guessing Bryan Stork
 gets the start at right tackle? Yes this is scary, and he’ll likely have Michael Williams next to him to help on many downs. But what about Cam Fleming at left tackle? How much help is he going to need? Does that mean Gronk has to stay in to block more, thus limiting the Pats offense even further? 

I still hold out hope that Cannon and Vollmer will be back soon and the offense can find some continuity down the stretch to the playoffs. But for now it’s just about surviving. That means doing whatever is necessary to help give Brady enough time to carve the Giants secondary, which he should do.

Maybe the answer is to use more empty sets, reducing White’s role at least in this one so that two guys can be kept in to protect the edges, but still keeping three wide receivers in the game to challenge the secondary matchups. 

Either way, getting by with a makeshift line is the key in this game and if they can keep it together like they did against the Redskins, the Pats should move the ball. If they don’t this game could look a lot like the Giants games we’ve become accustomed to the last three times.

Defensive Gameplan

Not much of a surprise here that it all starts with Odell Beckham Jr. One key thing I remember from Super Bowl 46 was that Belichick keyed on taking away Nicks and Cruz and forcing Eli to beat them with Manningham (and guess what, he did).

The question is whether or not you stick Butler on him or Ryan. I tend to think Ryan might be the better choice, as he can then get some help from Duron Harmon over the top. Of course the double team will be a rotating cast of characters, but generally I think Ryan/Harmon is the way to go. That leaves Butler for Rueben Randle.

The real x-factor is old pal Shane Vereen, especially if the sick Jamie Collins doesn’t play. Running back coverage is often how Collins is deployed and his familiarity with Vereen would’ve been helpful. There just isn’t another linebacker after Collins that is a favorable matchup with Vereen which means the duties may shift to a safety.

Eli has 19 touchdowns and is experienced enough to confidently attack the Patriots’ secondary. The Patriots just haven’t been able to put him on the “bad” Eli track early in their games against him. Now the remade secondary gets one of their biggest quarterback tests of the year and I think they still have something to prove.

Not to take away any credit from the solid job the overall defense has done this year, but it hasn’t been a murderer’s row like last year was. Roethlisberger and Luck (injured) are the only quarterbacks they’ve faced that I’d consider good. Tannehill and Fitzpatrick are okay and maybe capable of beating the Patriots, but more often than not the Pats will force them into game-deciding amounts of turnovers.

Eli has some really good weapons and he’s not going to be afraid of the Patriots. Plus he’s at home, so he should be turn in a good game. How the Pats shut him down this time will tell us a lot about them. Let’s just hope it doesn’t come down to one final chance for Eli to win the game again.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Ball Security – The Giants lead the league in turnover differential (Pats are second). They’ve forced 13 turnovers in their last four games. So really, that’s as big a reason why they’re 5-4. The Pats ball security is very good. In fact it’s so good people think they’re cheating, but it’s just that they know how important not turning the ball over is and it’s a huge key this week. 

2. Take Away Odell – It’s no secret what a dynamic player Beckham is and the Patriots always excel at taking away a team’s primary piece. Beckham will still make a couple plays (did you ever hear about that one-handed catch he made last year?) but the key is tackle him and prevent the yards after the catch. The Pats have been excellent at this in 2015, but this might be their biggest test yet.

3. Protect Tom – Maybe you do have to lean a bit more on Gronk as a pass blocker this week, but we all know what happens when the Pats’ offensive line has one of those games where they look completely out of sync. We all just assume that any offensive line injury can be overcome because the Pats have been doing it for so long, but this year’s tackle injuries are as bad as it’s ever been. Luckily the interior guys are in good shape at the moment and that helps but this will be a game if the Pats makeshift line isn’t on point. 

4. Attack Deep – It’s hard to watch Drew Brees throwing downfield to wide open targets and not think the Pats can do the same thing. Maybe that means LaFell and Dobson on the outside, but Meriweather and Collins, the two Giants safeties, looked like Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum out there, blowing coverages and playing clueless. Of course, throwing deep balls require good protection so that is what they’ll have to do first.

5. Win – This is a mental game this week. Yes, the Patriots can say all they want about this being a different Giants team, but I think a win over them still means a lot psychologically. I am hopeful that Cannon and Vollmer will be back soon, but until then the Pats must find a way to make their offensive line work on the edges. I don’t think it’s a lock that they just line up anyone at the tackle spots and everything keeps clicking. It could, but there will likely be moments where the offense sputters because of edge pressure. We’re on to the second half of the season, time to start defining who this Patriots team will be when the playoffs hit.

Prediction: Patriots 35, Giants 21

New England Patriots Mid-Season Regroup

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Since Belichick went off on midseason grades I’m going to avoid that here, but it’s a good time to take inventory of what we now know about the 2015 Patriots, and look down the road to what they’ll have to overcome to win back-to-back Super Bowls.

First, let’s take a look at the major unknowns entering the season:

Cornerback Turnover

The biggest storyline entering the season was the purge of all the cornerbacks and the anticipated move back to more zone defense. The good news is that Malcolm Butler looks like the best young corner we’ve had since Ty Law, Logan Ryan has finally found some consistency, and rookie Justin Coleman has be surprisingly solid as the slot corner. The better news is that the Patriots have stuck with a majority of Cover-1 Man defense, something that I feel is vital in today’s NFL. Maybe the overall great play of the front seven has hid some of the deficiencies at cornerback, but they’ve also managed to incorporate a lot more three (and even four) safety packages. 

Interior OL

The retirement of Dan Connolly put a major focus on replacing a starting guard this season, but little did we know they’d also have to replace Ryan Wendell and Bryan Stork out of the gate. But the great news is the emergence of veteran Josh Kline (who just earned a two-year extension) and a trio of rookies – Shaq Mason, Tre Jackson and David Andrews. With Bryan Stork back, the Patriots suddenly have solid depth on the inside of their offense line. The problem has been the unrelenting injuries to their tackles.

Replacing Vereen

Like the interior offensive line, it looked like the Patriots had magically upgraded their passing down running back role with the emergence of the electric Dion Lewis, who would’ve broken records had he remained healthy the entire season. But now, with Lewis done for the year, the question of who will replace Vereen for the potential last 11 games of the season remains wide open. James White should get the first crack at it. Can he replicate Vereen’s clutch play in last year’s Super Bowl? 

Fatal Flaws?

The Patriots are 8-0 right now, but there are plenty of areas that could derail their Super Bowl hopes. The biggest is the health of their tackles and that almost entirely hinges upon the health of Marcus Cannon and Sebastian Vollmer. We’d assume both will return sooner than later, but the bigger question is keeping them healthy for the playoffs. With those two guys in the game the Pats could beat anyone. But they’re almost out of bodies at the position and losing someone else for the season could be catastrophic.

No one will admit it but the ceiling of the Patriots offense going forward rests almost entirely on James White’s shoulders. If White can’t pick up pass protection, can’t pick up those clutch third downs that are needed on checkdowns, can’t make the first guy consistently miss, the Pats offense will be hindered. For as unstoppable as Gronk and Edelman are, they need that running back element, especially when they go with a pass heavy gameplan. The good news is that we still don’t know what we have in White, and he’s shown some flashes at times in his first two years.

Reasons to Book Tix to San Fran in February

Tom Brady has mastered the game and unless his offensive line just totally lays an egg, he’s going to find a way to beat any team that is put in front of him. Obviously the health of Gronkowski is paramount. As we’ve said all along, if he’s healthy in the last game of the season, it will likely be in the Super Bowl. As good as Brady is, the presence of Gronkowski makes the Patriots’ offense truly impossible. But we’ve known about Brady and Gronk for a while now, the true difference for this Patriots team is…

The front seven. Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins are the kind of talented pieces the team lacked on defense from 2008-2011. Now they are all coming into their prime and will give the Patriots at least another season of defensive dominance. Add in the solid play of Rob Nikovich, the anticipated return if Jabaal Sheard and the elevated play of Alan Branch and first-round pick Malcom Brown and this defense has more talent than we’ve seen since 2007. And it’s younger, athletic talent that can dictate, not older, savvy talent that has to rely a little more on brains than brawn as we saw in those late dynasty years.

Despite the health issues on offense, the defense has been largely lucky outside of losing Sheard for the last month and Tarrell Brown for the season. But otherwise their depth is outstanding and varied and they can play any kind of game necessary to win.

Simply put, this is a defense I would feel good about getting the last stop in a playoff game. That’s what the defenses of 2006, 2007 and 2011 didn’t do.

Conclusion

This Patriots team will remain largely intact next season, giving them a window of two years to get another title before some big decision have to be made about who stays and who goes. But with a number of high round picks on defense coming into their prime as well as Brady not slowing down and having great pieces around him, the Patriots should be favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at least once in the next two tries.

We’re only halfway through the season and what defines the second half could be much different than what has defined the first. Dion Lewis helped get the Pats to 8-0 but they’ll need someone else to step up to get them to the Super Bowl.

Still, this first half has once again proved how well the “Patriot Way” works. In hindsight the Patriots were right to let Revis, Browner and Arrington walk, and if anything their defense has been better overall this year than last.

I don’t know what will transpire before the Pats get to the playoffs, which players they will lose or get back, but it’s clear they have they should once again be in it until the end and will go down swinging no matter what. Can an opponent put together that perfect game needed to beat them? The Pats will welcome all challengers.

Patriots History of Defensive Front Seven Extensions Bodes Well for Jones, Hightower, Collins.

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Today the Pats extended Josh Kline, who has followed a tried and true path from practice squad offensive lineman, to spot starter, to solid starter. Kline is arguably the most improved player on the Patriots offense this season and was probably the only key free agent next offseason.

Of course the contracts that are on everyone’s mind are those of Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins, who are all free agents in 2017. The Pats have plenty of cap space, as essentially this year and next we’ll keep the current defense intact and then they can pick who they want to keep and who they want to let go.

Some are skeptical that Chandler can be kept but I think if we look at Belichick’s history it shows that defensive linemen are really what he values most, so don’t rule out the Pats giving Chandler a big deal.

First consider that all the defensive linemen Belichick has drafted in the first round have received sizable extensions. Richard Seymour had his contract squabbles but the Pats still held onto him for eight seasons before sending him to Oakland. This included a  three-year, $30million extension in 2006.

Then there’s Ty Warren who received a five-year, $35 million extension the year before his rookie deal expired.

And Vince WIlfork got 5-years, $40 million in 2010. That he even got to the end of his rookie deal was a surprise.

Also consider linebacker contract extensions Belichick gave out: Vrabel (2005, 5 years, $16.4 million), Bruschi (2004, three years, $4.6 million (!!!!!!)), Mayo (2011, 5 years, $48.5 million). Or consider the 5-year, $35 million they gave Adalius Thomas in free agency, the biggest free agency whiff of the Belichick era, but still one that shows big money going to a defensive front seven spot.

All of these deals were significant money (except for Bruschi and Vrabel who embodied “team-friendly” deals) and though none saw the end of their deals, it shows that defensive line and linebacker positions are where the Patriots are willing to pay.

Everyone might scoff at how many good players have walked from New England over the years, but there isn’t a single good defensive linemen or linebacker who has gotten away and it doesn’t take a football pundit to recognize that these are the positions Belichick values most.

So don’t assume Chandler Jones
 is walking after 2016. The more likely scenario is that he receives a three-to-five year extension this offseason that will still give him a chance to cash in on another contract. That’s the one that will be with another team and he’ll likely underperform how much he gets at that point in his career.

With no pending monster quarterback deal to give out any time soon, the Patriots have an incredible amount of flexibility as they head toward 2017. Jones, Hightower and Collins can all be retained, and if you add in McCourty (signed through 2019), Easley, Malcom Brown, and Sheard and all the pieces are in place at the most important spots on the defense.

The real guy to be concerned over is Malcolm Butler in 2017. 

Get Two Tix to Pats-Giants for just $200 from Virgin Mega!

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Deals on NFL tickets are almost impossible to find these days, but if you’re looking for two tickets to the Patriots-Giants game this weekend, Virgin Mega has an opportunity for a great deal!

The #GMenVSPats tickets will be available to purchase for 30 minutes next Wednesday at noon (11/11) exclusively through the Virgin Mega app. After 30 minutes, the top 4 fans will be able to purchase these pairs of tickets for just $200─ a killer deal. 

Here’s how to get the tickets:

– Download the Virgin Mega app to reserve your spot in line (iTunes / Google Play).

– On November 11th at Noon EST, fans have 30 minutes to open the app to get a better spot in line.

– Earn line jumps by answering football trivia, connecting to Twitter and hanging with the line DJ, @DJVirginMega.

– After 30 minutes, the top 4 fans will be able to purchase these pairs of tickets for just $200.

I will send out a reminder on Wednesday. Good luck Pats fans! Let beat those Giants for the first time since 2007!

Pats Posits: Dion Lewis Buzzkill Edition

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The Patriots pretty easily handled the Redskins as expected on Sunday, but once again were dealt more problems in the injury department.

Still, the Pats rolled, the defense played well even without Jamie Collins, and they’re headed to another date with Eli sitting at 8-0.

But 2015 has quickly become a war of attrition since the Pats early bye week, when offensive linemen started dropping like Redskins receivers. We’re down to one healthy tackle and we’re only halfway to the playoffs.

Here are the somber Posits…

Where else to start but Dion Lewis
 and Sebastian Vollmer
? 

We’ll all be holding our breath on both early this week, hoping that somehow Lewis only has an MCL sprain and Vollmer is at practice Wednesday. Lewis had an almost “too good to be true” feel to him and unfortunately I think the odds are against us seeing him again this year.

You have to feel for a guy who was finally just coming out of the woods on the injuries that hurt him early in his career. He was electric and putting him into an offense that won the Super Bowl last year was almost unfair.

Regardless of this season, hopefully Lewis can get back to the level he played at. He seems like a truly special playmaker. If there’s just a chance to get him for the playoffs it’d be a win at this point.

As for replacing him, I think James White is next in line despite Bolden’s appearance on Sunday. White isn’t as elusive as Lewis, but he’s shown some flash here and there in limited spots this season.

Some are already speculating Travaris Cadet could make a return and that makes a lot of sense. The Pats aren’t dead in the water without Lewis, but there will be a bit of dropoff that’s for sure.

– Yes, it’s the year of the Tackle Apocalypse with Sebastian Vollmer being the latest victim to go down with what is likely a concussion. But in comes Bryan Stork to save the day, playing tackle for the first time in his career and doing a pretty good job.

I don’t know how things can get much worse at the tackle spot. Praying the Cannon re-appears this week, Vollmer’s okay and then we’ll okay if we can just keep them healthy til the end. I’m definitely not convinced we can.

– Gotta love the balls of the onside kick early in the game. That’s the kind of “take control” performance you want against an inferior team at home and I thought it sent a strong message.

– We were all worried about losing the legend Vince Wilfork, but what a job Alan Branch and Malcom Brown are doing inside. Branch forced a fumble and blew up a couple runs by himself. Brown gets better each week and plays with excellent pad level and strength. Along with solid edge play from Ninkovich (who did lose the edge a couple times on the Redskins only drive) and Chandler Jones, the Pats run defense has been as good as it’s been since 2012, when they were the 6th best run defense by Football Outsider’s DVOA metric.

– I think I’ve finally figured LeGarrette Blount out. If it’s a tough front that likes to stop the run, he’s not very good. But against a run defense that’s middle of the pack or worse, or especially poor tacklers? He gonna eat.

– The Pats put Ryan on Garcon and Butler on Jackson. He was just coming back from injury, but Jackson was eliminated by Butler. Might be an area to examine in A22 Review, but Jackson had six targets, three catches, 15 yards with a long of nine yards. After getting torched in training camp last summer as a rookie, Butler showed some progress against the speedy deeeeeep threat.

– Predictable breakout game for LaFell as he looks to be back in sync with Brady. Nine targets, five catches for 102 yards for the physical receiver. It sucks to probably lose Lewis but it’s nice to have LaFell back to bring his outside presence.

– You the sign of a good pass defense? When they play action then check back down to the running back they didn’t hand off to. Seeing it more and more the last couple years and it’s a nice sign no one is open.

– The defense still really needs Sheard back. Chandler and Ninkovich are going to wear out playing every snap again. Initial reports were Sheard’s ankle was minor, but here we are a month later and he still hasn’t been seen on the field. Off it he looks fine, no limp, cast or otherwise. So the wait continues…

– Duron Harmon went down too but walked off and seemed okay after the game. Losing him would really limit what McCourty could be used for, so hopefully he just took one in the jewels or something. But after Sheard/Cannon’s “minor” injuries who knows.

– I can’t even get through an entire Posits and not mention those we sometimes take for granted like Edelman and Gronk, but both were clutch per usual. Getting to the playoffs with them healthy matters above all else. I’m not sure there’s a tougher receiver in the NFL than Julian Edelman. Fierce, quick, he’s a nightmare to cover and play against no matter what you want to label him.

– And then, there’s Tom Brady who finally threw his first shitty interception of the year. I’m glad that’s out of the way! 

– Always nice to see the Broncos lose, even if it was to the Colts. That’s a good tie breaker, the Pats could be a win in Denver away from a solid two-game lead for homefield advantage.

– Guess what? The Patriots haven’t beat Eli Manning since the 2007 16-0 game! This includes SB42, 2011′s regular season matchup, and SB46, all of which featured Eli making a late drive to pull out the win. I’d love to put a couple demons to rest this Sunday!

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 9 vs. Washington Redskins

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These are the weeks that the Patriots’ “one game at a time” and “everyone is good and capable of beating us” mantra must really be put to the test. Look, it’s nothing against the Redskins, they’re not that terrible and I’m sure if the game unfolds in a specific way they very well could hand the Patriots their first meaningful home loss since 2012, but it’s just so hard to see that happening and thus hard to get fired up for this game.

I do try to cherish every regular season game, because in two short months we’ll be hitting the playoffs and before you know it the offseason will be upon us. There are just so many storylines with just about every other team in the NFL that give you something to get at least a little bit excited about, but with the Redskins I got zippo.

Still it’s a chance to get better and see some of our weak spots challenged a bit. But really all I care about is getting a win without losing anyone to injury for the season. 

With that in mind, here’s the gameplan!

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Offensive Gameplan

These offensive gameplans get easier to write every week. I could just write, “Do what we do, see if they can stop it or we have an off day” and then that’s it. But schematically the Patriots don’t really need to adjust their gameplan each week because it simply boils down to getting the ball in Gronk/Edelman/Lewis’ hands as much as possible and then finishing teams off with the power rushing of Blount.

Maybe a defense can force the Patriots to go to Amendola or Chandler in some key moments, but when those guys come through in those moments there’s really not much else an opponent can do.

What I think is important to focus on are the areas that I’m not quite sold are rock solid yet. The offensive line would be the place to start, although they’re really just a Marcus Cannon return away from still having their most experienced line possible. It’s likely Jackson and Mason are out, and we know we’re getting Fleming at RT again, but an interior line of Kline-Andrews-Wendell is solid, and I’m curious to see how they deal with the size of Terrence Knighton who did give them some problems in the past.

The big question is what happens when Stork comes back. Can you work a center rotation in-game, or is that undesirable? It’s hard to yank Andrews, even for the biggest Stork supporter like myself, but if the Pats get a comfortable lead this week, it could be the right time to give Stork some snaps. It’s still pretty strange to have no depth at tackle or guard, but too many good centers.

Hopefully Cannon gets back soon, Vollmer can go back to right tackle and then they can figure out how everything in the middle will work.

The Redskins are 10th in passing yards allowed-per-game (that’s certainly going up after this one) so I’d like to see more of Brandon LaFell getting involved in the offense. Lewis has been the biggest addition this year, but if/when LaFell gets back to his 2014 level I shudder to think about how potent this offense will be.

Ryan Kerrigan’s availability is a big storyline in this one because without him I’m mainly thinking about targeting the Redskins’ run defense, ranked 30th in yards-per-game. It would be nice to protect Gronk, Edelman et al with just a good old fashioned ground-and-pound with Blount, who has been somewhat quiet in recent weeks.

Defensive Gameplan

DeSean Jackson (most likely back from injury) and tight end Jordan Reed are the headliners for the Redskins offense and I think they present some interesting challenges for the Patriots’ defense, while Pierre Garcon is their reliable chain mover.

Covering tight ends has been markedly improved this season, as the Pats have gone from 30th last year to 5th this year in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings. Credit has to go to Patrick Chung, who’s been remarkable in his second stint with the Pats now that they’re not asking him to be a Cover-2 deep safety anymore, nor are they asking him to cover slot receivers. McCourty also gets some credit as he’ll come down and cover TEs on clear passing downs as well, so expect some combination of them on Reed.

As for Jackson, this will be another pure speed test for the defense after not really seeing someone like him since Antonio Brown in the opener. But I’d think given the rest of the threats around him that the Pats might use Ryan at the line on Jackson with Harmon over the top. Butler might be better served taking Pierre Garcon one-on-one.

Otherwise, we have a good bead on the Patriots defense now. Malcom Brown and Alan Branch are the top two tackles, with Easley coming on in passing situations, often with Geneo Grissom, who has settled into an interior sub rusher role after we thought he was more of a defensive end. 

I am also curious to see if there is more of the 4 safety/3 corner look that we saw last week a few times. This features Harmon as the deep centerfield safety, Chung and Richards covering the seams in zone, McCourty manning up a tight end and the corners manning up the rest of the receivers. I like this package because it can take away a lot of easy passes and brings an element of physicality multiple DB packages often lack.

But ultimately if the Pats set the edge, tackle well and win their one-on-one pass rush opportunities they should be fine limiting Cousins et al.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Take Away Reed: I like to start by taking away any safety blanket an inexperienced quarterback has and Reed is that for Cousins. Those are the easy throws and jamming Reed at the line is a no-brainer. Eliminating the first read and easiest throw will put pressure on Cousins that should result in turnovers.

2. Butler on Garcon: Garcon is Cousin’s most targeted receiver overall and especially on third down. The veteran should be a good challenge for Butler, but I think making Cousins beat us with DeSean Jackson is the way to go. It will also test our deep threat defense, an area the Pats have struggled the last five seasons. No better time to see where we’re at with it than in this one.

3. Let Them Pick Their Poison: Double Gronk? Double Edelman? Play Dime? Or Nickel? Whatever the Redskins choose to do the Patriots have the pieces to counter and counter hard. As I touched on earlier, Lewis and LaFell are the trickle down problems, while Amendola and Scott Chandler are ready to come through when needed. Whoever is needed will be ready and the Redskins’ in-game adjustments won’t be enough to stop everyone.

4. Chandler Jones vs. Trent Williams: As I wrote yesterday, I think Chandler Jones is the key to the Patriots’ Super Bowl hopes this year, and he gets a great challenge in Trent Williams this week. I don’t see a world where Chandler Jones has a great game and the Patriots lose. If he’s on and getting pressure, the Patriots will be nearly unbeatable. He just has to find the consistency that has somewhat evaded him so far.

5. Win: It might be hard for the fans to excited about this one, but it’s a chance for the team to get better in some areas that still have question marks and finish off half the season undefeated, no easy task that we somewhat take for granted. The page will be turned quickly to the New York Giants, who present good challenges both now and historically. But some games just feel like a no win unless they’re a stress-free blowout and hopefully that’s what this one turns into.

Prediction: Patriots 35, Redskins 13

A Few Patriots Bend Don’t Break Notes

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Hoping to get to a second All-22 breakdown today, this time of the offense, but in my stat review this week it seems like the Patriots defense is settling in as we hit the halfway point of the season.

I think the remarkable thing is how Belichick’s defenses always tend to exhibit similar characteristics and this one seemed to have “get it” pretty quick. Last year was somewhat the exception because of the quality of CB1. Nothing against the very solid job Malcolm Butler has done this year, but when you can have Revis eliminate a top threat it really has a major effect across the defense.

But this year the Patriots are playing some very good football, but it’s characterized as always by “bend don’t break”, which is considered a negative by a lot of Patriots fans, but I’m here to tell you, more teams should subscribe to it because it works.

The big key is the tackling by the Patriots secondary. You might beat them for a play but you’re not going to run and make it an even bigger play. They’ll tackle you where you catch it and then force you to keep executing to get into the end zone.

You might even break a run through their defensive line, but again, the secondary won’t let you get much further than that.

But what stands out most to me (and it’s related to tackling) is the yards-per-drive which is lower than it’s been since 2007.

Now all you “yeah but they haven’t played anybody good” people can settle down. You can only play who’s on your schedule and just because you aren’t playing Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr (?) every week doesn’t minimize what your defense has done well.

All I’m saying is the trends are pointing in the right direction. And as I continue to say, this team will go as far as Chandler Jones takes it. I hate to oversimplify it but it’s just about that simple. Hightower and Collins are great players, but stopping the good quarterbacks in the playoffs will be about Chandler winning his one-on-one matchups.