PatsPropaganda

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Will the Patriots Defense Reach Their Potential in 2016?

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Things are going to change in 2017 for the Patriots defense. The list of defenders due to hit free agency after this season is long and talented — Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Jabaal Sheard, Alan Branch, Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon and Chris Long are some of the high profile names.

Now, the Patriots have the cap space to re-sign who they want. They won’t re-sign all of them, but they have enough in the pipeline to overcome a few departures from that group. Guys like Trey Flowers, Cyrus Jones, Vincent Valentine and Eric Rowe are some who could potentially take elevated roles in 2017 if guys leave.

But make no mistake, change is coming and what the Patriots have right now on defense is as experienced and talented a group on paper as they’ve had since the mid-2000’s. We knew coming into the season that this defense had the chance to be special. This was supposed to be peak Patriots defense for the second time in Bill Belichick’s reign. That’s what happens when you return everyone except one defensive end, and add even more talented contributors like Long and Valentine.

But what is troubling is similar issues continue to haunt this defense and I can’t help but wonder if they’ll truly reach the level Patriots fan believed them capable of this offseason.

[Read more…] about Will the Patriots Defense Reach Their Potential in 2016?

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Matt Patricia was shifted to coaching the safeties in 2011 which is an interesting move in that…

  • BB didn’t name a Defensive Coordinator for 2011
  • Patricia should have less bodies to coach, and will have experience coaching two of the three levels of the Patriots defense. He looks primed to be a defensive coordinator at some point.
  • Patricia should continue to be the one who calls the defense and with less players to worry about he might be more involved with big picture defense stuff.
  • Pepper Johnson remains as the defensive line coach and you have to wonder if he really does project as a defensive coordinator. It certainly seems like Patricia is being groomed. 

https://www.patspropaganda.com/matt-patricia-was-shifted-to-coaching-the-safeties/

Let’s Get Historical with the Patriots Defense and Third Down

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People are probably sick of me harping on the Patriots third down defense but today I give some historical perspective and show it’s not unprecedented for a team that stinks on third down to win the Super Bowl.

To give some starting context the range of third down percentages generally run from 30% (really good) to about 50% (really bad). Of course the numbers some times skew outside that range but in the big picture sense 90% of the NFL defenses will fall in that range in any given season.

Here are the Patriots third down percentages through the last decade:

  • 2001 – 37% (15th)
  • 2002 – 43% (26th)
  • 2003 – 34% (7th)
  • 2004 – 39% (21st)
  • 2005 – 42% (29th)
  • 2006 – 26% (8th)
  • 2007 – 34% (4th)
  • 2008 – 44% (26th)
  • 2009 – 37% (12th)
  • 2010 – 51% (32nd) (thru 11 games)

To put 2010’s number in even more perspective, the 31st ranked team (Buffalo) is ahead by 6 full points points (45%). Take 6 percentage points off the Bills’ score and they’d be ranked 18th! The Pats are 32nd by a mile.

In the years the Patriots have gone to the AFC Championship game they were 4th, 7th, 8th, 15th and 21st. So it does seem like a good third down defense does correspond somewhat to a Super Bowl contender.

But the Patriots are at the dead bottom right now. And there isn’t necessarily evidence that it’s getting better if you look at the Patriots performance on third downs over the course of the season. It has been consistently inconsistent.

The difference has been key interceptions at key times. Getting turnovers is always nice, but sometimes just forcing an incomplete pass is pretty good too.

Interestingly enough there was a team that won a Super Bowl recently with the lowest ranked third down defense in the NFL. The Colts won a Lombardi Trophy (Peyton Manning’s only one, btw) in 2006 getting off the field just 47% of the time on third down.

So it’s not unprecedented, but for New England to make noise in the playoffs they must continue to force timely turnovers and on the biggest stages when it’s all on the line. Do the Patriots have the playmakers who can make those championship caliber plays?

We’ll know a lot more after Monday night.

Dial something up, Matty P.