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5 Possible Shocking Patriots Cuts

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Patriots shocking cutLabor Day weekend can be one of the craziest times of the football year for Patriots fans. There’s always at least one bombshell that Bill Belichick drops on us, cutting or trading a player we all thought would play a significant part in a season that starts in mere days.

It puts many of us in a tailspin. What does it mean? Are they not “all in” this year? Was that guy a bad dude? Are they cheap? Do they not want to win the Super Bowl this year. What. Is. Happening.

Now before you let any of these drive you insane, remember two things. 1) None of them will probably happen, but… B) That’s what we would’ve thought about Lawyer Milloy, Richard Seymour, Logan Mankins, Brandon Meriweather and even Jonas Gray to name a few. And the tailspin described above is more or less what happened with each of those releases.

The formula is pretty simple really. Either guys aren’t as good as we thought they were or, they’re entering the final year of a deal and on the backside of their career. That’s a prime time to move them and get some value in return. It might be one year too early, but that’s how BB rolls. Better than one year too late.

We already got one kind of surprising (but not for me) trades this offseason that fit this mold with Chandler Jones getting moved. Maybe BB already hit his quota with that one.

Here’s my five (realistic) potential shockers.

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Launch The Cannon(s)

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Guys, Marcus Cannon is good.

I know, I know, I know…but hear me out. I looked at the tape. I looked at when he played in 2011 as a rookie. I watched him when he played in the Dave DeGuglielmo (spelled that without having to look it up thank you very much) offense where they were rotated in and out like a clock and I watched him this preseason back under the legendary Dante Scarnecchia. He’s good.

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Patriots Injury Buzzkill Sunday

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After two off days, the Patriots had media access on Sunday morning and the Boston Globe’s Jim McBride broke a trio of bad injury news updates concerning Shaq Mason, Dion Lewis and Sebastian Vollmer.

These are the first significant injury blows of the 2016 season with potential long-term ramifications.

Let’s break them each down one by one.

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Hello Injuries: Patriots Wounded in the Trenches

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Bright Spots

The first day of camp was extra special for Patriots left tackle Nate Solder. It was the first time he was able to share a football field with his son Hudson. Both father and son have battled extensive health issues in the last year. Seeing Dad in uniform and Hudson present certainly made the first day of practice special.

Another long time Patriot reappeared out of retirement in hope of improving the offensive line. Dante Scarnecchia is back and he brings extensive coaching experience in the trenches. There will be some tight position battles and Scar will be in charge of improving the unit that protects Brady.

Rookie offensive guard Joe Thuney has come into camp and captured attention immediately.  Jeff Howe and other members of the media cited his strength engaged with defensive opponents and his finish on every play. Since Thuney is a strong fundamental offensive lineman he can potentially work on playing tackle in addition to guard. Many suspect that is already the plan.

First Impressions

The first offensive line group consisted of Solder-Thuney-Stork-Cooper-Cannon. During camp these starting groups are subject to change every day. There will be injuries and various reasons that cause the first group to fluctuate.

Joe Thuney and Jonathan Cooper are favorites to win the starting guard job according to some Patriots analysts. Sebastian Vollmer and Nate Solder as expected to return to their starting roles at tackle. The center position is up for grabs between David Andrews and Bryan Stork.

 

Tackle Health

The main positional weakness of the offensive line in 2015 still remains; it’s not injury. It’s the tackles that protect the edge of Brady’s pocket.

Nate Solder has returned to practice. Sebastian Vollmer has not. Solder tore his biceps in week five of this past year and was placed on the season ending IR. It appears that the big money tackle has recovered from his injury. Solder’s cap hit in 2016 is $10,322,666.

Sebastian Vollmer’s situation is concerning. At age 32, Vollmer has opened camp on the PUP list. If he is not activated by the end of camp, Vollmer misses the first six weeks of the season. The right tackle enters 2016 on the last year of his contract with a cap hit totaling $5,208,334. There is no heir apparent at right tackle. It is unlikely Vollmer is resigned in New England at his age.

Marcus Cannon returns after a highly criticized campaign in 2015. He was simply ineffective throughout his season. If Thuney cannot capture a starting guard role, it’s very possible that he beats out Cannon as the swing tackle.

Cameron Fleming, LaAdrian Waddle, Keavon Milton, and Kerbyson Kyler are also listed as tackles for the start of camp. Fleming and Waddle will battle on the bubble with Cannon. Fleming offers more cap flexibility than Cannon ($4,100,000 lower) and has played both sides of the line.

The Patriots will likely only keep a total of three tackles on their active roster. Solder and Vollmer are locks if healthy. The battle for third will likely feature Cannon, Waddle, and Fleming. Milton and Kyler appear to be long shots.

Strength at Center

One of the most interesting position battles of the offensive line is likely at center. Bryan Stork and David Andrews have both been outstanding in the majority of their starts. There has been mixed signals so far as to who would take over reigns when both players were healthy.

Stork’s health appears to be hindering his ability to battle for the position. Andrews returned to Patriots camp and captured the off-season conditioning award from the coaching staff. His play has also been strong since Stork dropped due to an unspecified issue or injury in an early practice.

At some point the Patriots will have to make a decision at this position. Right now it appears the goalposts are narrowing with Stork’s absence. Andrews is taking all of the work with the ones, putting in the dirty work as Stork continues to miss time.

Crowded, Injury Riddled Group of Guards

As mentioned before, Thuney and Cooper were mentioned as favorites to win a starting guard role. There are several other guards battling for the position including Shaq Mason, Tre’ Jackson, Josh Kline, Ted Karras, Chris Barker, and Jon Halapio.

Usually a team only keeps nine offensive linemen on a game day roster; right now the Patriots have nine offensive guards in camp. Thuney, Cooper, Kline, Jackson, Mason are the linemen with the highest probabilities of landing on the roster.

The hype for Jonathan Cooper would not last long. He would be carted off with a right foot injury in one of the first practices. Cooper is apparently battling plantar fasciitis. This situation may be related to his condition according to Ian Rapoport. Cooper was a high draft pick and has experienced an injury riddled and disappointing career. He was acquired in the deal that sent Chandler Jones to the Cardinals. If he cannot get back to health his career may come to a premature end.

When Cooper dropped out due to injury rookie Ted Karras was promoted to the first offensive line group. In my draft analysis Karras appeared to be a lineman who needed a season of practice squad work. He is a tough player but not yet fundamentally sound. Much like any other NFL rookie at this point.

Shaq Mason and Josh Kline have not been cleared to participate in team drills. Both are recovering from injuries from this past year. Mason battled through a knee injury in October 2015.  Kline had shoulder surgery during the off-season and Jeff Howe reported it was, “unclear when he’ll be ready to practice”. Tre’ Jackson is also still on the PUP due to injuries from last season. This leaves a total of four guards unavailable to Scarnecchia.

The Walking Wounded

When a rookie guard is your standout offensive lineman in the early days of camp it’s a testament to where the position group is as a whole. With or without Dante Scarnecchia, this group still has work to do. Kline, Mason, Jackson, Stork, Vollmer, and Cooper are not cleared as full participants for practice. This leaves two rookie guards (Thuney, Karras) playing on the first offensive line group.

Pretty much an offensive line coaches’ worst nightmare early in camp. When the group is low on bodies, more stress weighs down on the healthy players. They battle more and more in camp, and are susceptible to wear and tear.

Right now Scarnecchia is at least getting the chance to evaluate his young players. With a mass of linemen out due to injury it forces the young guys into the spotlight early in their careers. It appears Joe Thuney gets the picture. He’s played hard right through the whistle in every practice.

The Bottom Line

It’s simply too early to judge much of the play through this point in camp. Some Patriots lineman still haven’t returned from last season’s injuries.

Nate Solder appears to be the only definite starter on the offensive line. It’d be a shock if Vollmer isn’t the bookend on the right side of Brady’s pocket. Cam Fleming, Marcus Cannon, and LaAdrian Waddle battle for a third roster spot.

Guard is a mess but returning Patriots veterans should have the upper hand over Jonathan Cooper. He is already out due to injury and Josh Kline and Shaq Mason are close to returning. Rookie Ted Karras should be bumped back down in the rotation immediately. Joe Thuney has likely given himself a shot to remain with the ones due to his strong, passionate play on the line. Tre’ Jackson will also return at some point and provide further depth at the position.

It might be better for the Patriots long term if Thuney doesn’t win a starting job at guard. It would give him the opportunity to work at Tackle and potentially allow the Patriots to release Marcus Cannon. Thuney’s strong play could provide roster flexibility further down the line.

The job at center is highly contested. Right now it’s a one man job due to unspecified reasons. Bryan Stork left practice in an earlier season and hasn’t appeared since. David Andrews has been strong at center and could win the job. Stork’s injuries have begun to add up.

My early guess for the first group is Solder-Mason-Andrews-Jackson-Vollmer.

Patriots Training Camp Positional Battles

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Patriots Training Camp

Unlike many teams in the NFL, the Patriots don’t really care what players have done previously or how they were acquired. At the start of training camp, it’s a blank slate for all and the players who stay healthy and perform are the ones who earn the jobs. Nowhere is this more apparent than the undrafted rookie free agents who make a seemingly stacked team almost every single year, and often play significant roles during the season.

This year there wasn’t a ton of roster turnover so the true competition spots are mostly in backup roles, but you can’t rule anything out with how the Patriots level the playing field each summer.

Here’s a list of interesting position competitions to keep an eye on.

(Note – the following appears in the 2016 PatsPropaganda Season Preview Book. You can pick up a digital download of the full 40-page preview here.)

LaAdrian Waddle vs. Marcus Cannon – Backup Swing Tackle

Cannon has a $4.75 million cap hit in this, the final year of his contract, and he’d cost just $1.07 million in dead cap space if they were to cut him. That contract, along with his up and down performance last year certainly puts a target on his back as the swing tackle. Waddle can play both sides as well, and though we didn’t see much of him in game action last year, the Pats thought enough of him to give him a two-year, $2.4 million deal this offseason. This season Waddle is making roughly one-fifth what Cannon is due to make and that could give him not only the inside track on the swing role this year, but possibly a shot to take over as the starting right tackle in 2017. Waddle was at left tackle in minicamp, while Cannon was on the right side with both Solder and Vollmer out.

Donald Brown vs. Tyler Gaffney – Early Down Running Back

Unless Dion Lewis is ready to go in Week 1, it’s probable that there will be a new running back in the mix at the start of the season. We’ve been waiting on Gaffney for two years now, and while Brown had a disappointing stint in San Diego, his overall versatility could make him a better fit in New England. Both can catch the ball, but have the size to take some early down punishment as well. James White’s job is far from safe as well, as it seems the Pats consider him just a receiving back and almost completely refused to hand the ball off to him last season. Undrafted rookie DJ Foster, could also be in the mix, but he fits the receiving back mold as well. It seems like it’s Brown vs. Gaffney at this point.

Cyrus Jones vs. Justin Coleman – “Star” Cornerback

The competition at cornerback this summer should be fascinating from top to bottom. I don’t think it’s a lock that Logan Ryan gets handed the starter’s spot opposite Malcolm Butler (the only lock), despite having a really solid year last season. All nine of the corners on the roster are feisty and physical, and capable of playing man-to-man. The easiest place to monitor first will be in the slot, where last year’s starter Justin Coleman will get a tough challenger in Cyrus Jones. Neither have an overwhelming physical advantage so it will boil down to who is showing up most consistently in practice. And really, you can’t rule any of the other corners out of the mix either. Depth in the secondary is always of vital importance and though most of them are thin on experience, their schematic fit is unquestionable across the board. In minicamp, Coleman was on the outside, while Jones was in the slot.

Tre Flowers vs. Geneo Grissom vs. Rufus Johnson – 4th DE

As I wrote earlier in the player previews, one of these guys really needs to emerge this season. Ninkovich isn’t playing forever and there’s no lock that Jabaal Sheard can definitely be re-signed, so this season must be about grooming at least one potential starter replacement. All three of these guys have their strengths – Grissom the most athletic, Flowers the toughest, and Johnson the biggest. How will it all play out in camp is tough to tell, but there’s potential here and hopefully one of these guys can begin with some pass rush time, followed with some long looks at defensive end. Preseason snaps will be critical for all. Another piece is replacing the 30 percent of special teams snaps that Chandler Jones played.

All the Young Guards – Starting Guards

There at least five guards who could be starting for the Patriots in Week 1. Factor in the versatility of center Bryan Stork and David Andrews and the options only expand. So it’s impossible to know how it will play out, especially at a position where injuries happen a lot. Mason and Jackson played well as rookies, but each has their issues (size for Mason, injuries for Jackson). Kline was the best guard last season but what’s his ceiling and how soon will he be back and healthy? Then there’s Cooper, the most gifted of all of them, but he was a big disappointment in Arizona. Can he recapture the magic that had him being the best guard in the 2013 draft? What about rookie Joe Thuney who played all over the line in college? This whole group, except Jackson, has played both guard spots and that complicates things even further.  Throw Dante Scarnecchia back into the mix and this is one of the most fluid camp battles we’ve seen in a long time.

Bryan Stork vs. David Andrews – Center

Assuming Stork and Andrews do stay permanently at their natural center position there might only be room for one of them. This is the most clear head-to-head battle and that was confirmed in minicamp where both players saw time with the top unit. Stork played a number of different spots in 2015 and that boosts his chances for making the team. The loser could be a trade candidate but you’d love to hang on to two great young players who can both do the job.

Other Battles to Watch:

Vincent Valentine vs. Markus Kuhn – 4th DT

AJ Derby vs. Clay Harbor – 3rd TE

DeAndre Carter vs. Keshawn Martin vs. Chris Harper – 5th WR

Jonathan Jones vs. Darryl Roberts – 5th CB

Why Did Patriots Ignore Major Needs at Running Back and Tackle?

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The major personnel pieces should be in place now for the 2016 Patriots, something I’ve been simmering on for the last couple of days. Most disturbing to me is the two biggest areas I felt needed to be addressed this offseason (running back and offensive tackle) were basically ignored.

Now on the offensive line you’re left with basically one left tackle (Nate Solder) and a shitload of right tackles and interior swing guys. You can’t have starting-caliber backups at every position but going into a season with no one who can legitimately play left tackle behind Solder is scary.

This also means next season they’ll have to choose between giving new contracts to Sebastian Vollmer and/or Marcus Cannon, or acquiring a new player to start at right tackle. Look, if Solder stays healthy, things will be okay. They’re not exactly set for the future and there’s still big question marks surrounding how the right tackle spot will play out, but if the starters stay healthy this is an offensive line capable of winning a Super Bowl.

There is plenty of promise on the interior, where I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Patriots try to move Bryan Stork or David Andrews. Luke Joeckel, who could be available for trade, could make a lot of sense. But otherwise it’s impossible to see how the competition will play out this summer. Jonathan Cooper is probably the most talented of all the guards and there are plenty of pundits who think Joe Thuney has a lot to offer as well.

How will those two new guys compare to what we thought was a young and promising trio in Josh Kline, Tre Jackson and Shaq Mason last season? That’s at least four starter-quality players for two spots. Again, one of those could be trade bait, but I’m not sure any of them are all that appealing to an outside team in the kind of way Logan Mankins was.

Counting on the Return of Superman (Dion Lewis)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdZJk1xtU00

At running back the Pats will now enter camp with just three vets and one undrafted rookie who aren’t coming off a season-ending injury, and none of those healthy guys — Brandon Bolden, James White and Donald Brown — strike much fear in anyone out there. So what the running back position comes down to at this point is the full healthy return of Dion Lewis, who must also recapture his magical seven-plus games in 2015, when he came out of nowhere to suddenly look like Barry Sanders.

If Lewis is back to that form, it will also help LeGarrette Blount immensely in loosening up a defense and setting them up for their hammer/finisher. But as we saw last season, once the Pats lost Lewis things started to unravel on offense. Ideally I wanted to add another rookie pounder to this group. Someone who could take the early carries and loosen up the defense, while taking the heat off of Lewis and Blount.

James White had a couple flashes last season after Lewis went down, but I remain on the fence about him in the long term. And rookie DJ Foster, who played slot receiver last season, is more in the mold of a receiving back than a tough yardage grinder.

Maybe everyone at tackle and running back come back healthy and stay healthy all season and my fears will be unfounded. But if they don’t, these are critical areas that put immense pressure on Tom Brady and the passing game. The Patriots offense in the AFC Championship was one-dimensional and it nearly got Brady killed. That was my biggest takeaway from last season, yet the Patriots essentially stood pat this offseason at both of the positions where attrition caught up to them.

It’s hard not to overreact right now, but there’s still four months until the season starts. New players could still be added or familiar players could emerge as Dion Lewis did meteorically last season. Maybe Donald Brown can re-find the magic that made him a first round pick, or Tyler Gaffney finally stays healthy. A lot can happen, good or bad. Until the pads come on and we know for sure how everyone’s recovery went and how things fit together with the 2016 Pats you can’t panic.

Still, these are clearly the two areas to focus on as potential weak spots on the Patriots roster.

 

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Cannon hasn’t played at guard. Not a single snap at guard for four-year veteran Marcus Cannon, who has worked at right guard at times in practice and occasionally in regular-season games. Perhaps that changes in the preseason finale but Cannon seems most comfortable at tackle, which is where he’s lined up for all 15 of his series.

New England Patriots Blog – ESPN Boston

https://www.patspropaganda.com/marcus-cannon-patriots/