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Patriots Week 3 Kickoff: Oakland Raiders

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Last meeting: In 2011, the Patriots gave up 504 yards of offense yet still won 31-19. Wes Welker had 9 catches for 158 yards as the Pats moved to 3-1, en route to a season that would see them lose to the Giants in the Super Bowl. This was prime territory for a pass defense that couldn’t stop a nose bleed. Put it this way – Sergio Brown was the 5th leading tackler on the day.

Early Outlook: The Raiders are 0-2 after losses to the Jets and Texans. It’s the Patriots home opener, and with the Pats offense on the verge of breaking out, the Raiders should have their hands full. It will be hard to not to be overconfident heading into this one.

Notes: Old friend Justin Tuck is back, not that he’s the same player he once was, but it will be interesting seeing how he does against our new-look interior OL.

LB Miles Burris is the lowest ranked defender on the Raiders by PFF, and Andy Benoit of MMQB called him a “liability”. Expect the Pats to attack the weak link.

On paper the Raiders have some big names like Tuck, Carlos Rogers, Antonio Smith and Lamarr Woodley but all are in the red for PFF’s ratings.

PFF has Derek Carr under pressure 33 of 78 dropbacks.

I’d bet BB will be content to rush four. Between Ninkovich, Hightower and Chandler, they should generate pressure. And seven in coverage will likely force Carr into a couple interceptions.

The whole Tony Sparano of it all is slightly concerning because you know, he dropped that whole Wildcat bomb on us in 2008, but really the defense is fine to handle that gimmick now.

Happy it’s the home opener because I think that will help the Pats not look past the Raiders. Every NFL team is dangerous if you don’t take them seriously. Remember losing to the Cardinals in 2012?

Pats are on national TV back-to-back after this one against two pretty good teams. They really need to get the penalties fixed and the offense on track in this one. 

If the Pats take more penalties than the Raiders in this one I will be concerned.

Patriots Week 2 Kickoff: Minnesota Vikings

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Last Meeting: It’s been four long years since the Pats last saw the Vikings on Halloween 2010. The Patriots won 28-18, knocking Brett Favre from the game in the process. Adrian Peterson had just 92 yards on 25 carries, something the Patriots will hope to repeat this weekend.

Early Outlook: The Vikings won on the road in St. Louis last weekend and with two explosive playmakers in Adrian Peterson and Cordarrelle Patterson, but with old friend Matt Cassel at the helm they have their limitations.

Notes: It’s hard to get the stink of the Miami game off and the challenges that the Vikings present are the perfect opportunity to bounce back, but their tackling will be critical.

The Vikings had major success handing the ball off to Patterson, where his speed is on display. It will be on edge players Hightower and Ninkovich to keep him contained.

Mike Zimmer had success against the Pats as the defensive coordinator of the Bengals last year. Doesn’t look like they do anything too exotic which helps in preparation for playing them. I expect him to try to bring pressure up the middle at Brady, something that was a little easier when he had Geno Atkins though the Vikings front seven is still pretty good.

Everson Griffen should be a good challenge at defensive end, but Brian Robison might be the bigger problem.

Sharrif Floyd was one of my favorite players coming out a couple years ago, he was the pre-Easley Easley and he also went to Florida.

Cassel’s arm doesn’t scare me, but his ability to run does. This game should be won in the trenches, not downfield. Though Norv Turner’s offense relies on downfield shots, the back end will have to be ready.

Siliga and Wilfork look like the best combo at DT in this one. Try to prevent the Vikings from running it up the gut every play, which I’m sure they’ll be tempted to do after the Miami tape.

With fairer conditions I think the Pats can pull back on the heavy rotations on both sides of the ball. Would prefer to see them build some continuity with one group.

How about Solder-Cannon-Wendell-Connolly-Vollmer for the whole game and see how it goes?

It was reinforced for me last week that BB will only have Revis follow a receiver if he thinks shutting that one guy down is key. He’ll certainly pick his spots, but a good defense balances man and zone, and with the Vikings’ threats on the ground I think the CBs stay on their respective sides this week as they did in Miami.

This game seems out of the Pats’ comfort zone defensively as they’ve evolved to be more of a pass-stopping defense. Thus it’s a good test and good experience to balance their game.

It sounds simple but if they just tackle they should be fine. They are the more talented team.

Patriots Week 1 Kickoff: Miami Dolphins

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Last Meeting(s): The Patriots and Dolphins had two closely-fought battles last season. In the first meeting in Week 8, the Dolphins raced out to a 17-3 halftime lead in Foxboro. The Patriots clawed their way back in to take a 27-17. The Dolphins had a comeback of their own in Week 15, intercepting Tom Brady in the end zone to preserve a 24-20 win.

Early Outlook: Between the heat in Miami, the usual closeness of Week 1 divisional games, and the history of close games last season between these two teams, it’s hard to think this game won’t go down to the very end.

Notes:

Miami is looking to push the pace on offense, something the Patriots defense should be well-versed in after facing their own offense and the Eagles’ this preseason.

The strength of the Dolphins pass rush is on the edges with Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon, and that matches up well with the Patriots’ strength at tackle. The interior of the Pats offensive line won’t get that stiff of an opening test.

Miami’s feisty cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan and Brent Grimes could be targets to attack with bigger receivers like Dobson, LaFell and Wright.

The Dolphins’ linebackers move well and should be a good matchup for Rob Gronkowski, assuming he plays as BB threw some cold water on that this morning. Getting those LBs matched up on Shane Vereen, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola will be a goal.

Miami’s receivers should put the Pats’ talented secondary to the test immediately. Mike Wallace, Brandon Gibson and Brian Hartline might get the man-on-man matchup throughout the game. Revis-on-Hartline, with Dennard-on-Wallace with McCourty help over top and Arrington-on-Gibson makes sense.

Rookie Ja’Juan James will start at right tackle for the Phins, expect him to get a rotating combination of pass rushers from Chandler Jones to Rob Ninkovich and perhaps even Dominique Easley. This will include the interior of Miami’s line as well. If there’s a recurring theme of Dolphins losses, it’s Tannehill taking a lot of sacks.

Charles Clay is a Patriots-esque weapon and I expect to see plenty of Jamie Collins in coverage on him. 

My five points of emphasis will be coming Friday and we’ll have more links to matchup articles throughout the week as other good takes pop up.