PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

jimmy garoppolo

Can Jimmy Garoppolo Defy the Odds and Lead the Pats in his Four Games as a Starter?

by

ji

As we all know by now, New England Patriots starting quarterback Tom Brady will sit out the first four games of the NFL regular season. On the heels of that controversial ‘Deflategate’ saga, backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo now steps into the spotlight left by his future Hall of Fame teammate. Some diehard Pats fans are questioning Garoppolo ability, and are worried that he will choke in the spotlight.

Every NFL fan understands how the first handful of regular season games are essential to a team’s success. For the Pats, these four games could easily make or break their playoff chances, which is why there will be a significant amount of pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo. This is a new scenario for both the team’s backup QB and the fans, as New England hasn’t opened a season without Brady as the starter since 2001, when Drew Bledsoe was still at the helm.

Apart from being a quick-releasing, good-looking quarterback out of Eastern Illinois – who generally played well during his brief stints as backup QB in his rookie year – what else do we need to know about Jimmy G? First off, if Garoppolo plays like he did in the preseason against the New Orleans Saints, then we could see the Patriots go at least 3-1 in the first four games. Ultimately, for number 10, there are a lot of factors to consider, and head coach Bill Belichick might play a major role.

The Boston Globe reported how Bill Belichick got Jimmy Garoppolo up to speed way before the finality of the now-infamous ‘Deflategate’. What’s important, for now, is to focus on the task at hand and what lies ahead, as well as deflecting all the outside interruptions. “Distractions that demand our attention appear more numerous than ever before in human history,” according to an infographic entitled ‘Improving Concentration and Focus’ which explores several studies on the subject. In other words, the battle starts way before the Pats hit the gridiron, as the challenge lie with how Jimmy G handles the pressure and negates the odds stacked against him.

The prop odds for the New England Patriots’ record for the first four games of the 2016 NFL season are at: 4-0 (+1150), 3-1 (+180), 2-2 (+145), 1-3 (+335), and 0-4 (+1500). With three of the first four games played at home versus the Miami Dolphins, the Houston Texans, and the Buffalo Bills (the lone away game against the Cardinals in Arizona), it’s more likely the Jimmy Garoppolo and Pats will start 2-2. If history suggests something significant with the aforementioned record, then maybe – just maybe – we can repeat what happened in Super Bowls XXXVIII and XLIX.

For now, let’s just wait and see how Jimmy G fares amidst the attention, the distraction, and the pressure.

Pats Posits: Time to Get the Jimmy Thing Over With

by

2016, here we go.

That’s my biggest takeaway from Thursday night’s win/loss (?) over/to the Giants. Yes, there were some injuries to talk about, because those can affect the regular season and there were some interesting performances to consider, but otherwise let’s put a nice little bow on the 2016 preseason and get the Jimmy Garoppolo 2016 Four-Game Tour over with.

On paper, I’m not sure I can remember being more excited about a squad headed into a season. What 2007’s offensive promise was, 2016’s defensive promise is.

I’d put this defense up man-for-man against the hallowed 2003 and 2004 defenses. All are deep, versatile and talented all over.

Now injuries can quickly change things, but going in they have mostly players in their prime, most of them homegrown. And that’s at every position. There’s a sprinkle of hungry and/or misused veterans, who bring just a little of that outside hunger that staves off complacency.

Put it all together and oh boy.

The starting offense is almost as talented on the frontlines, but have their holes and a frightening lack of depth along the offensive line.

So will this be one of those years where the defense has win ’em? Well, unless you’ve been asleep for the Patriots’ last four Super Bowls, it almost always comes down to the defense having to get a stop.

We just hope that Tom Brady comes back in October looking like Tom Brady and Dante Scarnecchia can work his magic one more time and nobody on offense, especially Nate Solder, goes down along the way. Dion Lewis comes back and peaks as we hit the playoffs and number five here we come.

But let’s face it, despite whatever holes we think the Pats have, I promise you every other team has holes that are just as significant, if not bigger. And they don’t have Tom Brady starting Week 5.

All things considered, the Pats are locked and loaded to kick some ass in 2016 so strap in.

Here are the Posits on the preseason finale.

[Read more…] about Pats Posits: Time to Get the Jimmy Thing Over With

6.5 Patriots Things to Watch vs. Panthers

by

 

Yes, most football writers only do five things to watch for each game, but for this preseason contest I’m taking my blogging game to the next level. That’s right, you not only get an extra thing to watch, you get a half of one too!

The third game of the preseason is always the highwater mark of the summer before the real bullets start flying. We should see Jimmy Garoppolo into the third quarter, along with the starting defense. Though there won’t be any gameplanning (thanks coach), it’s still a chance to see (most of) our best versus (most of) someone else’s best, so it’s an intriguing game.

Just one reminder, even for this kinda-important third preseason game, all that really matters tonight is that no one gets a season-ending injury. I’ll take Garoppolo looking terrible and the defense getting lit up over anyone (on either team) going down with a major boo boo. That’s really the only thing that can stand between the Patriots and another deep playoff run — a key injury.

So let’s get through this one, stay healthy, wrap things up with a meaningless game next Thursday against the Giants and get the train rolling for the regular season.

Here are the 6.5 things I’ll be watching closely.

[Read more…] about 6.5 Patriots Things to Watch vs. Panthers

Pats Posits: Jimmy Lights It Up, Brady Gets Cut

by

Okay, Brady got cut with scissors, but if you’re reading this blog you are probably well aware of that already. The Patriots offense came to life against the Bears, with Jimmy Garoppolo turning in an impressive performance (16/21 181 yards, 1 TD), behind an offensive line that didn’t allow a sack (though one was negated by a penalty).

The Patriots defense on the other hand showed some holes early, negating two third-down  stops with penalties on Patrick Chung and Justin Coleman. Still, as they often do, the Pats plugged up the early holes (Hoyer in for Cutler sure helped) and the Pats got a meaningless 23-22 win.

Here are the Posits as we hit the mid-way point of the preseason!

[Read more…] about Pats Posits: Jimmy Lights It Up, Brady Gets Cut

Tweets of Note: Patriots Training Camp Practice #2

by

The Pats were back at it today, still in shells and helmets. Tomorrow the pads come on and that’s what we’re all really looking forward to.

Here are the tweets that stood out most from Friday’s practice:

My money’s on Ben Volin who asked this question of Garoppolo could take Brady’s starting job. Classic Belichick response. And I still just don’t get idiots who purposely ask questions that they know will draw BB’s ire. I’m sure this isn’t the last we’ve heard of these kind of questions either. Just imagine if Jimmy does look really good in the four games.

And yes, Belichick is once again rocking the 2013 hoodie that he had on yesterday. The sleeves are incredibly short. Considering he didn’t wear a cutoff hoodie at all last year this is quite the development. I have a feeling this is the same mock 2013 sweatshirt he busted out late last season. Then he had only cut out the collar of it. Now it looks like he really let his sleeve-cutting freak flag fly.

Garoppolo has quite the quick release and anyone who thinks he can’t get the job done in the first four games of the season is kidding themselves. He should know the offense at this point and has two of the best tight ends in the game at his disposal. I’m really looking forward how he does. And not really in the preseason. I want to see him in the regular season with a full gameplan designed around his skillset.

Lewis is the one to watch but they should of course be smart with him. I think we’ll see him mid-camp and they’ll ease him back in slowly.

That’s a good sign. The season-long health of those two is critical.

Harper ready to put his muff in Denver behind him? Very curious to see how Hogan looks compared to what we saw from LaFell in 2014.

One of the under-the-radar guys that we need to keep any eye. I continue to believe developing a “get-open-quick” guy behind Edelman and Amendola is vital, even if someone like Carter or Harper are on the Edelman-esque four-year development plan.
 

Back and forth and back and forth, all summer long we go.

This one will be going back and forth all summer. Gotta admit I’m rooting for Stork just because he’s such a Belichick weirdo type. Short shorts. Great beard. Zero to say to the media. He’s as close to Logan Mankins as we’ve got right now.

Silver Linings Playbook: Task list to withstand the first four with Gabagool.

by

Jimmy Garoppolo PatriotsFor the first four games, the New England Patriots offense will be helmed by Jimmy Garoppolo and then presumably the rest of the season by Brady (sorry, ESPN trolls I’m not linking to your dumb hot takes). Meaning that the Patriots offense will undergo the largest adjustment of the NFL season simply by obligation (barring Aaron Rodgers being suspended for four games for openly admitting he required his staff to overinflate balls).

Luckily for them, the Pats have the “Adjuster in Chief” in William Stephen Belichick and his “Secretary of Offense” in Joshua Thomas McDaniels. This inane lynching of Brady will be no different than his ’08 injury, they will adjust. Sure, not having 12 will hurt a buttload more than it helps, but there are few silver linings.

Does the Brady suspension make the Pats Offense MORE unpredictable? Yes.

Smarter (and lazier) men than I came up with a more nuanced way to approach analysis of the NFL, which is to evaluate it in four-game chunks that form trends. Football at the highest level is just stacks on stacks on stacks of adjustments, like a Mahjongg tile game. When you look at a 16 game season or multiple seasons, the nuances are indecipherable, but if you cut three-quarters of the tiles away, you can register the ways offenses and defenses are adjusting, which makes the areas of strength and weakness much easier to identify.

With four games a piece from two different QBs, this will make this type of evaluation more difficult for opposing defenses. Because after week 8 is the bye week, where the Pats self-evaluate and make adjustments in anticipation of teams exploiting their found weaknesses (Good timing).  It’s worth noting that the Pats offense last year was the best in the league, by far over the first nine weeks of the season. To some extent, that calendar is extended this year (barring injury) through more than three-quarters of the regular season.

But not having the best player on the team, also makes the team much much much worse. Here are ways to blunt the most damage and the ways they could backfire.

Task 1: Build a variation of the offense that suits Garopollo’s strengths.

Phil Simms could have pulled this out of whatever’s left between his ears, but it’s worth mentioning that Josh McDaniels is pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good at tailoring an offense to individual players’ skills. It definitely won’t be Cassell ‘08 redux, (always link to the boss’ bomb post) which was like a Tesla being driven by my great grandmother. But McDaniels made Kyle Orton an effective QB (’10-’11 RTG: 87.1), so he will be chomping at the bit to highlight the areas that JG’s effective.

Complication: Jimmy G’s basically Brady but 6’2″ and unproven: he has a quick release, reads defenses well and works quickly, intense, hardworker, strong leader. So the offense probably won’t be that much different.

Task 2: Use wrinkles that you wouldn’t use with Brady under center.

When Brady’s running the offense, the Patriots rarely use gadget plays because the offense doesn’t need to gamble.  But they’re certainly not opposed to it. (SIDENOTE: This is all anecdotal because no one has real statistics in the NFL, somehow the NBA can tell us within an inch where Bill Russell shot from on a Tuesday in 1964, and baseball has a pitch locator that identifies speed, spin, location in less than a second, but no one has ever charted plays in the NFL, despite it’s popularity and lack of a large sample size, good lord, anyway).

With Brady, all they have to do is execute or “do their job” (the most tired but still relevant phrase) at their various positions and they will be fine playing it straight. (INSERT: STAT for gadget plays, oh, right, there aren’t any) As someone who thinks the gadget play design and execution that the Patriots used in ’14 Ravens AFC Divisional round game were some of the most inspired and balls-out plays in NFL history, I am pro-gadget play. And as a football fan, I love things like this video:

.

(My favorite is the bounce pass from Presbyterian, note for Indy turf, prepare). In order to win against tough defenses (ari, MIA, HOU, BUF) they may need to take a few chances with the young guy.

Complication: When a new QB takes over, typically you want to simplify not overcomplicate. Also gadget plays can blow up:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrtzpdH_uPM

Seriously go over to Youtube and watch it, I’ll wait.  Okay now watch it one more time. S000000o good. Collinsworth: What the… heck?

Task 3: Create mismatches that are easier to exploit.

I wrote about this last weekend, but the elite two TE packages will make things easier on Jimmy G. Identifying how many DBs vs. LBs on the field is far simpler than individual player match-ups.

Complication: You’re asking a person who hasn’t played a meaningful football game in 3 years to quickly identify personnel and adjust protections. Lot to ask.

Task 4: Create a nickname for this dude, a starting QB needs a solid handle.

Brees, Brady, Rodgers… nowhere does Garoppolo fit into that list. If he’s going to gain trade value or *gulp* be a long-term option for the Pats, this has to happen. Also, it’s exhausting typing Garoppolo, it’s like Belichick, it never looks right however you spell it. JG’s Italian, so my pick is Jimmy Gabagool.

Complication: Gabagool is harder to type.

Task 5: Protect the dude.

With no Brady and Ebner, I think Belichick and Caserio keep an extra O-lineman on the active roster, which should at least give them ample bodies at each position on the front line.

Complication: O-line will improve, but Solder’s coming off major surgery and Vollmer ain’t exactly a healthy doggy. Depth at Tackle isn’t optimal.

Task 6: Stop talking about how handsome he is until he wins a game.

This one is for media members and fawning “hilarious” tweeters, losers aren’t handsome, they’re “pretty boys”. Pretty boys suck.

All that being said, I’m decently optimistic, but first four weeks are gonna suck a little. Maybe he wins ugly, maybe he loses a few, maybe he loses em all, who knows. We know that Brady will be back and ready to go in October, that’s all that matters. Until then, keep the expectations low and keep Brady ’01 in mind. Godspeed.

What does Cassel’s 2008 mean for Garoppolo?

by

Cassel 2008

Cassel celebrates a third quarter touchdown pass during their 17-10 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Sunday, Sept. 7, 2008. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

One of the common refrains you’ll hear with Tom Brady potentially sitting the first four games of the 2016 season is “well Matt Cassel took the Pats to 11-5 in 2008, so Jimmy Garoppolo will be fine!” I agree to an extent, but I don’t think it’s that cut and dry and it’s worth taking putting that season into context and how different things will be in 2016.

We all remember that fateful opening game in 2008. The Pats were in white jerseys at home. Like Belichick’s SB42 way-too-short cutoff red hoodie something seemed off from the start. Then there were the big GU patches to honor Gene Upshaw that would forever make this game instantly recognizable. Brady hadn’t played at all in the preseason and Matt Cassel looked terrifyingly awful.

When Brady went down after Bernard Pollard dove into his knees then limped off the field, we knew it wasn’t good. Anyone who had watched the preseason thought we were dead meat with Cassel. But Cassel managed to put together a solid season, completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 3693 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. That included two fourth quarter comebacks and two game-winning drives.

But the problem, as Bill Belichick said himself in his episode of A Football Life, was that the Patriots could not beat the good teams in the AFC. Their only win over an AFC playoff team was in Miami, in a Wildcat revenge game. They lost to the Steelers, Chargers and Colts, the only three teams outside their division that they faced with winning records, not including a 9-7 Cardinals team that never got off the bus in Foxboro. They feasted on the terrible AFC and NFC West divisions.

Had the Patriots faced a more daunting schedule, we likely wouldn’t have the 11-5 argument to make.

Still, Cassel did far better than anyone would’ve expected based on his preseason. He had a veteran cast of weapons around him including Wes Welker in his prime, Randy Moss and Jabar Gaffney. The defense however was at the end of the line. 2008 was their final gasp before the full turnover began the next offseason. Had Brady stayed healthy this probably would’ve been their downfall.

The 2016 Patriots are a little different. While they have a lot of veterans in place on offense, their defense is just hitting its prime. That’s what stands out to me most. The 2008 defense was not one that could singlehandedly win games. The 2016 should be.

Garoppolo also seems a far better fit for the Patriots’ offense at this stage. Simply put, he’s more talented than Cassel and his quick release should fit what the Patriots do with Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett extremely well. He also has some of the athleticism that Cassel displayed which gave teams used to facing the statue-esque Brady a new twist.

Garoppolo’s first TD pass.

Belichick and Josh McDaniels had to adjust on the fly when Brady went down. Now they have an entire training camp to cater the offense to Garoppolo’s strengths. This is vital because 2016’s schedule is far more daunting than 2008’s was. This is why the comparison is a hard one to make. There are six 2015 playoff teams on the docket this year, including two (Cardinals and Texans) which Garoppolo would have to face.

And the other two matchups against Miami and Buffalo feature defenses that would push even Brady to the limit. Luckily three of the first four are at home. That counts for a lot against defenses that love to blitz.

Garoppolo should be ready for this. Most quarterbacks are thrust into the fire long before they’ve had a chance to apprentice for two seasons under a Hall of Fame quarterback. And if the Patriots are ever going to be able to get something for Garoppolo, now is the time to showcase him.

Cassel’s 2008 has some similarities, but he was a less-talented player facing less-talented teams. He performed as you’d expect a Belichick-prepared player would, and probably would’ve made some noise in the playoffs had the Jets just beaten the Dolphins in Week 17, allowing the Pats in.

It’s a tall order for Garoppolo facing four very good defenses, but should be better prepared than Cassel was with all this time to prepare. I have no doubt Belichick will have Garoppolo ready to go with a plan that suits his strengths, which just happen to be very similar strengths to Brady’s.

And in the long run, getting a look at Garoppolo now is really what’s best for the Patriots organization.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KvrEZOaR6Q