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Pregame Meal: Make The Teal Squeal

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It’s conference championship Sunday, the day of football I really live for as a football fan. Of course the Super Bowl is the Super Bowl, but it’s also more of an exhibition feel while the championship games take place at home venues packed with home fans and the celebrations are alway a full team party. Yes, we have to get there first and I’m still trying to imagine explaining to summer ’17 Mike how nervous I am that it’s the Jacksonville Jaguars standing between the Pats and SB52.

But here we are… back in this great game for a seventh-straight time. In 2011 it took a miracle ending to avoid overtime with the Ravens. In 2014 and 2016 it was pretty much a cake walk. In 2013 and 2015 the banged up Pats just couldn’t quite get past the Broncos in Denver.

And then there’s 2012. 2012 is the game that scares me just because it was the only time the Pats lost an AFCCG at home. That Ravens team got a perfect outing from Joe Flacco and their defense was at the height of its powers. Everything lined up just right for the Ravens and they dominated the second half. Can this Jags replicate that game? I don’t think so, but they certainly have defensive talent.

The Jags line to victory is clear — don’t turn it over and force Brady into an early mistake that doesn’t allow him to ever get comfortable. Then, maybe then, the Jags can put forth the kind of 60 minutes of fearless and mistake-free football needed to beat the Patriots at home in the AFC Championship. But it’s going to take a special effort and a complete meltdown by the Pats in all three phases.

But let’s be honest, we WANT to be nervous today. What fun would it be if we all just convinced ourselves that this is a pop warner team that the Pats will roll by 40-plus points? So for the next few hours I’ll continue to imagine the perfect Blake Bortles game, a young defense that is all over the Pats right off the snap, while Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead are hit in the backfield over and over.

All I know is that I never would’ve predicted the Pats laying a 28-3 egg in the Super Bowl, so who knows, maybe it could just be the Jags day today?

Here’s the gameplan and hoodie prediction in case you missed them.

Alright, I feel like I sufficiently worried myself just enough. Here’s a bunch of other pregame thoughts…

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Patriots Gameplan: AFC Championship vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

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The New England Patriots host the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday in the AFC Championship, for the right to represent the conference in Super Bowl 52. It’s New England’s seventh-straight conference championship game, trying to win three-of-four Super Bowls for the second time with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Crazy.

This was a weird year in the NFL as the power structure, aside from the Patriots, has mostly been turned over. After years of being a punchline, the Jaguars introduced their fully-healthy defense to the league behind sporadic but effective Blake Bortles, who has played two playoff games of turnover-free football. For all the talk of the Jags’s defense being the only threat, their offense was 5th in points and 6th in yards.

Pats-Jags doesn’t have the same feel as AFC Championships against the Colts, Ravens and Broncos , but the Jaguars have earned the right to become the latest contender to try and knock off Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at home in the AFCCG, something only the 2012 Ravens did.

Tom Brady’s apparent thumb injury adds a new level of intrigue, with the Patriots being noticeably feeding the flames. Ryan Hannable summed it up nicely here.

What do the Patriots need to do to beat the Jaguars and get back to the ‘ship? Here’s the gameplan.

 

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Belichick Hoodie AFC Championship Prediction

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It’s been quite then week for the Hoodie Database. Just when I think my signature stat is totally played out, Belichick goes and throws a huge curveball like he did last week against the Titans. I wrote all about here and dedicated an entire segment on Patshow to it.

The big takeaway? That Belichick busted out the old Reebok hoodie, the one that made him famous. Maybe it wasn’t the gray version we’re most familiar with but really, the gray did the heavy lifting through the Reebok Hoodie tenure, the Blue came around later so it makes sense it’s the one that was preserved and taken from the closet after six long seasons.

Now, with Belichick busting out old hoodies, it’s no wonder the Pats are the favorites to take home the Lombardi Trophy once again. You can bet on the Patriots to win Superbowl 2018 online at Betting-Super-Bowl.com but first they need to win the AFC Championship over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

So what should Belichick wear to get past the Jags? Let’s take a quick look back at the last six AFC Championships.

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Jags Defense Will Attack Patriots’ Offense With Speed At All Levels

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This week instead of jumping into the Patriots film, I jumped into the Jags. I never get a chance to really study another team because I’m so busy trying to decipher what the Bill Belichick is cooking up. So a chance to take a look at multiple games of film, including the Pats-Jags preseason game, the Jags loss to Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers, and both playoff wins.

The Jags defense vs. the Patriots offense is where this game will be won or lost. Their schemes are not complicated, but they have so much speed that they’re really effective. They’re at their absolute best when they get offense’s in third and longs. They have dominant pass rushers and a flexible secondary.

Here are a bunch of quick hits on the Jags defense and how I think they’ll match up against Tom Brady and friends.

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An In-Depth Look at Blake Bortles and the Jaguars Offense

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The Patriots rolled over the Titans Saturday night to the tune of a 35-14 blowout that clinched a spot in the franchises’ seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game (is that good?). Up next are the surprising Jaguars, who toppled the Steelers in exciting fashion last Sunday, hanging 45 points on Pittsburgh’s defense. However, I do not think that score should truly worry Patriots fans, as Blake Bortles is still Blake Bortles and Bill Belichick is still Bill Belichick. Sure, Bortles played well against Pittsburgh, but I think he will need to play almost perfect in order to come into Foxborough and dethrone the champs.

Sure, Bortles did have a good day (especially for Blake Bortles standards), but if you look closer at the numbers, it is easy to see why the Patriots should be able to lock down Bortles come Sunday. For starters, Bortles only completed 10 passes belong the line of scrimmage. The Jags, rightfully so, simplified their game plan to the max against Pittsburgh, and expect them to use the same formula in Foxboro this Sunday, which should be a positive for New England.

Against Pittsburgh, Bortles was not sacked, and was only pressured on eight of his 28 drop-backs, just 28% of the time he dropped back. When he was kept clean, Bortles had a passer rating of 115.5, but when pressure was applied, his passer rating dropped to an abysmal 39.6.

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Pats Posits: Who Limped Off, Shined and Stunk vs. Jags?

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The Patriots completed their first game of the 2017 preseason, “losing” to the Jaguars 31-24.

Yes, no one cares about who wins or loses preseason games but there was still plenty to unpack from the contest, including some great performances by some young weapons and some dreadful performances from some young veterans who are supposed to be taking a positive step forward this season.

Let’s start with the only thing that truly matters after a preseason game — injuries. Yeah, guys can play good or bad, but ultimately there’s a long way to go and no roster spots were won or lost after one preseason game. But injuries can kill a season in an instant.

  • Dietrich Wise — Oh that rookie that everyone was abuzz about this preseason? He was kneed in the head and left the game in the first half. I feel weird saying “luckily it’s just a concussion” given what we know now. In the olden days this would be written off with a “he just got his bell rung.” Now it’s a “shit, I hope this doesn’t mean he’s donating his brain to a study someday but… he’ll probably be back soon.” Of course if you’re choosing between getting his leg broken in half and getting kneed in the head, the choice is obvious, but I still don’t feel good about it.
  • Elandon Roberts — Limped off, but one of those tough as nails guys. I think he’ll be okay. Looked like an ankle thing.

Okay, injuries are out of the way, let’s talk the good, the bad and the whatever.

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Love Ridley in 22. Erase Asante from my mind.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/love-ridley-in-22-erase-asante-from-my-mind/