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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 9 vs. Denver Broncos

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This one has been circled since the schedule came out in April, and now it’s finally time to enjoy a clash of the two best teams in the NFL. Many are betting the Patriots and Broncos will meet again on the way to the Super Bowl and this game might just decide where it’s played.

This is what football is all about, and a loss will not be detrimental to either team. There’s still time for injuries and recoveries to play out, along with new hot or cold streaks. Both teams could have a far different complexion if they meet again in January.

But for now, at the start of the second half of the season, here’s the game plan.

Offensive Gameplan

Not to oversimplify a gameplan, but this one would seem to be all about the Patriots offensive line. More often than not we can make the case that that is always the biggest key for the Patriots – give Brady time and he’ll carve up any defense.

But if he can never find a rhythm, it could be a long night, just like the AFC Championship game was.

In that one it was Terrence Knighton who gave the interior of the Patriots offense line nightmares.

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That was impetus for advocating a rehaul of the center and right guard positions in the offseason. That happened, but not in the way we thought it would. Now it will be two of the same three pieces and a rookie in the middle against the Broncos. Can they do better than they did with Mankins in there in January? It’s a huge question.

But the bigger problem this year has been the play of the tackles, especially Nate Solder, though he has settled down in recent weeks. Still, he and Sebastian Vollmer (and rotational tackle Marcus Cannon) are facing arguably the best one-two edge punch in the NFL this year with Demarcus Ware and Von Miller. 

Solder had his problems with Miller last year and will need to bring his best game of the season. Being at home will certainly help him get off the ball, but short, quick pass rushers seem to always give him fits.

If the offensive line holds up, the rest doesn’t really matter. Brady will find whoever is open, whether Aqib Talib and Chris Harris are matching up on Gronk, LaFell or Edelman.

Perhaps the best course of action will be to take advantage of the Broncos interior linebackers with Shane Vereen in the passing game.

Regardless, just give Brady time and everything should fall into place on offense.

Defensive Gameplan

The big question this week is how will the Patriots matchup with the Broncos array of weaponry? This is New England’s best secondary since 2003, one that seems to have been specifically built with beating the Broncos in mind.

I believe that the Patriots will mix things up from down to down. There will be times where Browner and Revis stay on their sides, but I think there will also be third downs where they want to get the specific matchups. Let’s face it, Manning knows how to find the open receiver, so even if the Thomases are taken away, he’ll throw it to Sanders or Welker, or check into a run.

Do the Pats go with a light box and tempt Manning to hand the ball off like he did in last year’s regular season tilt? I’m sure they’ll pick their spots with that as well. 

Ultimately there is no definitive matchups that the Pats will push every down. Mixing up against Manning is essential. I expect to see Kyle Arrington back in heavy rotation after being lightly used the last two weeks.

The spot I’m most unsure about is Brandon Browner on Julius Thomas. If Julius splits out wide, it’s a no-brainer. But you can’t expect Browner to go inside and expect him to cover him with every route option on the table.

So when Thomas is inside, expect a linebacker over him with strict orders to destroy him on the line of scrimmage. When he goes outside, he gets Browner.

Revis on Demaryius Thomas seems like a no-brainer for important downs. But I don’t expect Revis to follow Demaryius all over the field, every down.

Arrington has had good success against Welker, but Emmanuel Sanders is a problem. Alfonzo Dennard could be a good physical choice to cover him, but I’d like to see Duron Harmon over the top of him, while Devin McCourty plays a free safety role.

Does Patrick Chung play much in this one? That’s a big question I have. Him in coverage on just about anyone is a mismatch. Thus I’d expect a lot of McCourty-Harmon on the back end, only bringing Chung in if the Broncos run game is effective. 

Or perhaps it plays out like the scenario that was discussed this offseason, with Browner and safety help on Demaryius, Revis on Emmanuel Sanders, and a similar plan inside.

But for all the talk of the secondary, this game will be won or lost by the Patriots front seven and how well they A) stop the run from their sub package and B) get enough pressure to disrupt Manning’s throws.

The initial coverage should be effective with the Pats ability to jam at the line of scrimmage. But after that initial disruption it will be up to the likes of Rob Ninovich, Dominique Easley, Akeem Ayers and any blitzing linebackers to get after Manning. No secondary can cover forever. It’s unlikely the Pats will get a bunch of sacks, but the disruption of the pocket and getting Manning just a bit uncomfortable is paramount.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Protect. Tom. Brady. :  I don’t care if Peyton Manning puts up 40-plus points and torches our defense, if the offensive line protects Brady he could put up 40-plus as well. Brady has torched the Jack Del Rio defense numerous times in Foxboro. This isn’t Rex Ryan, where we can expect him to take Brady off his game schematically. The only way Brady doesn’t have a good game is if he’s running for his life. With this year’s offensive line that wouldn’t be a surprise. They need a huge game.

2. Find a Pass Rush: The Patriots hopes in this one took a serious blow when they lost their best pass rusher Chandler Jones. Jones was the only semi-consistent pass rushing threat on the Pats early in the season, now they’re going to have to find a consistent pass rush from those who were below him on the depth chart or replacements. Dominique Easley looked impressive early against the Bears as Jones’ replacement, he’ll have his work cut out for him this week. Perhaps Akeem Ayers can generate some pressure on Manning, or defensive tackle Chris Jones, who has shined with some interior rush at certain times. Somehow the Pats have to find some finishers this week. The secondary should give them an extra beat, but it can’t go any longer or else someone will get open.

3. Wilfork Must Dominate: It’s hard to believe the severity of the injury Vince Wilfork suffered last year, he’s bounced back like it never even happened. Wilfork is capable of dominating a game by himself (see 2011 AFCCG), and if he can rise to the occasion this week, especially against the run, the Pats defense will get a huge boost. Last year in the regular season matchup the Pats let the Broncos run all over them. This weekend figures to be similar with gusty winds expected to take some air out of the passing game. If the Pats six-man front in the sub-package gets run all over again, it will be tough to keep pace with the Broncos offense. Wilfork and his defensive tackle rotation must come up huge this week.

4. Balance: The Broncos have a ton of talent on defense in all areas and if the Patriots offense becomes one-dimensional, the Broncos will tee off on them. The key to this is maintaining balance in the running and passing game. Keeping guys like Miller and Ware on their heels is a priority. When they know the pass is coming, that’s when they’re at their best. Can Jonas Grey have a breakout day? That might be a pivotal question for Sunday.

5. Win: 7-2 and a tie breaker for homefield advantage over the Broncos in the playoffs is certainly a nice way to go into the bye, especially for a team that most considered dead and buried just a few weeks ago. You can never rule the Patriots out at home no matter how unstoppable their opponent has looked the last few weeks. We know the Patriots will fight down to the end, but will the injuries to Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo cost them? Or how about the changes on the offensive line? This is the game where we’ll find out. 

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 8 vs. Bears

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The 5-2 New England Patriots welcome the 3-4 Chicago Bears this Sunday after a ten day break coming off their Thursday Night Football win over the New York Jets.

The Pats badly needed some time to regroup and get healthy, especially along the offensive line where Dan Connolly and Bryan Stork are still recovering from concussions. The Pats also got news that they’ll be without Chandler Jones for the next month, this coming on top of losing Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley for the season the week before.

The Patriots looked tired and had poor communication against the Jets, but hopefully the last ten days have given them some time to get back on the same page. They also traded for linebacker Akeem Ayers this week, who was buried on the Titans depth chart, but could see immediate action given the Pats’ injuries on defense.

Here’s the gameplan for the Bears…

Offensive Gameplan

Despite some up and downs against the Jets, the Patriots offense is starting to find their stride. Shane Vereen looks like he might now be New England’s feature back, while Brandon LaFell has developed into the big target Tom Brady has lacked for a while. 

With Rob Gronkowski looking better and better each week and Julian Edelman continuing on pace for 100 catches and 1,000 yards, the Pats offense should feast on a suspect Bears secondary.

The Bears are 30th in DVOA against tight ends and 26th against #2 WRs – signs that point to big games for Gronk and Edelman.

Tom Brady has never had a problem finding the open receiver, and if he continues to throw the ball downfield with better accuracy and consistency the Pats offense could find another gear this week.

Getting tight end Tim Wright even more involved should be a focus this week, especially with more expected spread formations. Perhaps it’s time to revisit the Vereen-White double RB sets.

This game will be about the pass, at least early. If the protection holds as it has in recent weeks, the Pats will move the ball.

Defensive Gameplan

The Patriots have had three ugly defensive performances – the win over the Jets and the two losses to Miami and Kansas City. All three looked the same with the Pats making fundamental errors – missed tackles, lost contain and untimely penalties being the main problems.

Those problems are fixable, but there’s little question the Bears will look to attack a Patriots run defense that has been shredded this season. They are currently 23rd in run defense DVOA.

The receiving combo of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey might provide the most interesting challenge of the season for the Pats’ secondary. Darrelle Revis has had success against Marshall in the past, while Brandon Browner’s size should be an asset against Jeffrey.

But even if the coverage is great, the pass rush might be the biggest concern. The Pats are currently 25th in the NFL on third down and they were that bad with Chandler Jones, their best pass rusher. How much worse will they be without him?

No secondary can cover forever, so it will be on the replacement pass rush parts – Dominique Easley, Zach Moore and perhaps Akeem Ayers to get after Jay Cutler and force mistakes.

Points of Emphasis

1. Generate Pressure Any Way Possible: As I mentioned above, getting to Jay Cutler could be the deciding factor in this game. If Belichick needs to get creative to generate pass rush so be it. In the past we’ve seen Belichick resort to walk-around amoeba defenses on third down to aid the pass rush. He’s not going to be sending six pass rushers every down, but the occasional slot corner blitz has had some success. Expect a healthy rotation in Chandler Jones’ spot, someone has to get the job done.

2. Fundamentals: This defense needs to find some consistency with their fundamental skills. With the extra time off, I expect we’ll see better tackling and the Pats are always more comfortable against a traditional pocket passer like Jay Cutler. When the Patriots simply make the tackles they’re in position to make and don’t get overaggressive and lose sight of their “job”, they’re a solid defense. But at some point they need to start stringing success together and it starts against a Bears offense that has plenty of weapons.

3. Hammer Down Immediately: The turmoil in the Bears locker room was well-documented last week and the Patriots need to come out of the gate with guns blazing to plant the seed of doubt immediately in this volatile team’s minds. This applies on both sides of the ball and it starts up front. The offensive and defensive lines must be ready to explode on their respective first series to set the tone and let the Bears know it’s going to be a long night. If that happens, the Bears could fold and start making mistakes that only make things worse.

4. Get the New Guys Involved: Between Jonas Grey, Zach Moore, Akeem Ayers and Dontae Skinner, the Patriots will need contributions from some new players going forward and it’s important to get them involved and start building their confidence and experience. This could come at the expense of giving up some plays, but it’s better to take those lumps now in October against an NFC opponent. The sooner we find out who can help the team win, the sooner they can start helping.

5. Win: I’m trying my best not to look ahead to the Denver game. Not only for the game itself, but for the awesome pregame tailgate giveaway party we’re throwing. But Brady-Manning is a headline game every season and the Broncos look like the best team in the NFL. That challenge will have to wait. For now the Pats have to take advantage of being at home against a team they should beat. This is the start of an incredibly hard stretch of games and every win matters. Get to 6-2 and worry about the rest next week.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 7 vs. Jets

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The Patriots get their Thursday night game out of the way this week, facing their divisional rival the New York Jets. When the Pats and Jets meet we cant throw the records out the window. Yes, the Jets are 1-5, but have had close battles in almost all of the contests and there’s little question Gang Green will be up to play their rivals.

Full disclosure – I love Rex Ryan and love that he coaches the Jets. He’s the perfect Yang to Bill Belichick’s Ying and his defensive gameplans are always fascinating to study, especially when he’s going against Tom Brady.

The Jets have the right talent in the right spots to exploit some of the Patriots’ weaknesses but the game might ultimately rest on the shoulders of Geno Smith. If he plays a mostly error-free game, it will go down to the very end.

Offensive Gameplan

With rain in the forecast, mistakes become magnified, so the biggest thing on offense is execution, especially being careful with the ball. The Pats practiced with wet balls this week to hammer this point home. With two teams that know each other well an untimely fumble could be the difference in the game.

The Jets feature an impressive defensive front and Sheldon Richardson Damon Harrison and Muhammad Wilkerson should test a Patriots offensive line that has been shaky at times throughout the season. With Stork and Connolly out, backup Josh Kline, who struggled last week against the Bills, should see plenty of aggressive attacks from the Jets interior.

Nate Solder will also have his work cut out for him against Wilkerson as he looks to get his season on track.

Perhaps most important though will be the communication on the offensive line. Rex Ryan loves to run all kinds of blitzes that will test even the most veteran offensive lines. They cannot afford to miss someone and allow a free hitter in on Brady, especially with slippery conditions.

If the passing game is affected by the weather it will put the magnifying glass on the Pats’ run game sans Stevan Ridley. Their ability to move the ball on the ground could be another one of the major factors in this game.

Defensive Gameplan

Between the wet conditions and Geno Smith’s penchant for turnovers, all signs are pointing to the Pats playing mostly zone defense tonight. This can be maddening to watch, but it’s a staple of Bill Belichick’s defensive philosophy. If he doesn’t think a quarterback can execute without multiple game-deciding mistakes, he’s happy to put seven guys into coverage, send limited blitzes and wait for the interceptions to come.

Sometimes the quarterbacks will put together an error-free game in this scenario and it can be frustrating to watch multiple underneath passes completed. But usually the Pats defense will stiffen in the red zone even if the turnovers don’t come. 

This method puts the pressure on the front four of the Patriots. They must get to Smith to help force him into mistakes. If the pass rush is non-existent, Smith will make plays and then things could get dicey.

5 Points of Emphasis

1. Trench Warfare: You don’t want to oversimplify any points of emphasis, but this game will be won in the trenches on both sides of the ball. For the Patriots, protecting Tom Brady and picking up Rex Ryan’s complicated blitz schemes is paramount. As we’ve said time and again, if Brady has time, he’ll move the offense. If the Pats give up early pressure and don’t find a rhythm on offense it could be a long night.

2. Born to Run: With Stevan Ridley out of the season, the Pats must find who can carry the rock on early downs. Brandon Bolden might be the easiest choice, but he lacks Ridley’s explosiveness. Or perhaps practice squadder Jonas Grey gets a chance. Regardless, Shane Vereen must step up and make plays. If he doesn’t, the Pats offense could be dangerously close to one-dimensional.

3. Who will Stop (us from passing in) the Rain?: The Pats passing game is really starting to take off in the last couple weeks, and it would be a shame if the rain retards that development. With the Jets devastated by injuries in the secondary, it’s where they are most susceptible. Even with driving rain, the Pats must try to attack their cornerbacks. 

4. One way to Skinner the Jets: Deontae Skinner is likely to see plenty of action tonight, and while he looked very much like a rookie last week against the Bills, this is a time to get a good look at Skinner in a significant role to get a feeling for his ceiling. If they could manage to get a lead, it would be beneficial to get Dont’a Hightower off the field to rest his injured knee. Even Jamie Collins is battling a thigh injury. Tonight is Skinner’s shot to prove the Pats don’t need to go looking for another linebacker outside the organization. He might not get another one.

5. Win: The Pats get an extended break after this one – a great chance to get a bit healthy after a string of injuries the last two weeks. If they can get to 5-2, including 2-1 in the division, they will be in great shape as they approach the halfway point of the season. Tom Brady hasn’t lost an AFC East game at home since 2006 and the streak should continue if the Pats play their usual clean game.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 6 at Buffalo Bills

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The New England Patriots got back on track last week with an impressive win over the previously undefeated Cincinnati Bengals. But there’s little time to enjoy that victory, as the Buffalo Bills welcome the Pats for their second divisional game this season.

Despite New England’s 22-2 record against the Bills since 2001, the early season games, especially those in Buffalo are always close. With first place in the AFC East on the line, the Patriots will need to build on the success they had against the Bengals.

The 3-2 Bills will be looking to make a statement and the Patriots know what they’re walking into –  a hungry team that wants to prove they’re a true contender.

Here’s the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

Continuity is the name of the game this week, building on the solid play of last weekend without regressing is a daunting task in a tough environment like Buffalo. Bill Belichick calls it “stacking success” and that’s something the 2014 Patriots haven’t been able to do yet.

It starts with the offensive line, which may have some questions with Bryan Stork showing up on the injury report on Thursday with a “head injury”. If Stork can go, there’s no reason to change up what worked last week on the line, and really, they don’t have many other options.

The offense cannot continue to progress if Brady doesn’t have the time he needs.

Incorporating pieces like Aaron Dobson and Tim Wright are also important, as they add two completely new elements to the Patriots offense, elements they lacked last year – an athletic “F” tight end and a tall, speedy receiver on the outside.

Getting Danny Amendola more touches wouldn’t be a bad thing either. He had his best game as a Patriot last year in Buffalo, despite tearing his groin in the process. Amendola has been getting open, Brady just hasn’t been finding him.

Balance between the run and pass is critical as always. Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley had great patience last week and if they get that kind of blocking again, they should be able to expose the Bills run defense. But there will likely have to be some misdirection and screens involved to avoid Brandon Spikes in the middle of the Bills defense. He’s a downhill, impact linebacker if you run it right at him.

Defensive Gameplan

Injuries are adding up on the defensive side of the ball. Dominique Easley separated his shoulder last weekend and could be out. Chandler Jones is battling a shoulder injury of his own as well. With Michael Buchanan on IR now and Dont’a Hightower missing last weekend with a knee injury, the Pats are scary thin at defensive end right now (and Hightower isn’t even a defensive end!). Even their emergency options are being thinned out.

This is not good for the edges of the defense. The Pats could really use Hightower back to reinforce the edge from his strongside linebacker spot. The options for pass rushers have been thinned out as well. Vince Wilfork and Rob Ninkovich might have to play out of their minds.

Devin McCourty was in a red “no contact” jersey in practice. If he’s out this week Duron Harmon steps into the primary free safety role, something that could be a bit a scary.

But Buffalo should rely on their quick passing game primarily around Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, so it will likely come down to linebackers Jerod Mayo and Jamie Collins making plays.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Wrap and Tackle: In the two road losses this year a recurring theme was poor tackling and that cannot happen with talented running backs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. Winning on the road, to borrow a phrase from the late great Maine hockey coach Shaun Walsh, is about being “quietly efficient”.  Make the plays you’re in position to make. Don’t do too much. Just DO YOU JOB. If they do that, the Pats defense should be in good position with their talented secondary. But it must start with sound play up front.

2. Two Tight Ends, One Personnel Package: We saw just a glimpse of what last year’s leading receiver for rookie tight ends Tim Wright could do and this week he needs to be worked in even more. As Rob Gronkowski returns to his old self, Wright is the perfect compliment to him –  a move tight end who can stretch the seam but also go up on jump balls. The two tight end set is the most versatile in football and allows the offense to dictate the matchups they want. The sooner the Pats can run Wright and Gronk with a combination of any other weapons, the harder they will be to stop.

3. Make Spikes Cover: Brandon Spikes has certainly had this game circled since the schedule was released and he’ll make his presence felt in the run game. But Spikes’ weaknesses in pass coverage are well-documented and the Pats have a knack for turning a player’s overaggressiveness against them. That should be the case with Spikes as the Pats have plenty of options to exploit him in space. Whether it’s Shane Vereen, Rob Gronkowski or Tim Wright, the Pats will look to get Spikes in space and take him out of his specialty. Play action should come early and often.

4. Block Four With Five: There’s little surprise that maintaining the kind of offensive line play that we saw against the Bengals is of paramount importance. This week, with a Bills team more than capable of generating pressure with just four talented rushers, the Patriots must find a way to give Brady the extra time to find open receivers with seven defenders in coverage. Kyle Williams should test the interior of the Pats line while Jerry Hughes and Mario Williams will be attacking the edges. Stopping those three players especially might just be the biggest key to the entire game.

5. Win: The Pats are already in a 0-1 hole in the AFC East and dropping to 0-2 would put real pressure on them. Divisional games are of paramount importance in Foxboro – they’re the most direct route to the playoffs of course, so Bill Belichick and co. know what is at stake. Stepping into sole possession of first place in the AFC East would be a nice statement to make in early October, but the road only gets harder from here. 

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 4 at Kansas City Chiefs

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The Patriots conclude the first quarter of their season on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs in Arrowhead, in what should be a good test for a Patriots team that seems to be going in two different directions on either side of the ball.

Last season the Chiefs were one of the teams that scared me. Their controlled short passing game is just the kind that has given the Patriots defense fits in recent years, but the Pats defense is starting to look reborn after a strong start against three admittedly less-than-formidable offenses.

Offensively the talk all week has been focused on the offensive line, leading many to wonder if there will be some changes upfront for the Pats. Once New England gets their blocking solidified, we should expect to see a much-improved squad. But there’s no guarantee that the blocking is easily fixed, they’ll have to prove it on the field and all eyes will be on them in the hostile environment known as Arrowhead.

Offensive Strategy

The one constant through the first three games on offense has been Julian Edelman and he should once again be the go-to target to keep the chains moving. With star Chiefs safety Eric Berry nursing a high ankle sprain, the Pats should be tempted to attack the deep part of the field, something they’ve been less-than-effective with early in the season.

Their best deep threat Aaron Dobson was back on the bench last week after seeing his first action in Week 2. If ever there was a time to push the Dobson deep plan, this could be the week.

But the bigger question is whether or not Tom Brady will have the time. Even the most perfect gameplans are easily destroyed when the pass rush gets to Tom Brady and the Chiefs have two of the best edge rushers in the game in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. They will test Sebastian Vollmer and Nate Solder, the Patriots bookend tackles. Solder especially had one of the worst outings of his career against the Raiders and he will need to bounce back in a big way or Brady could be on his ass a lot.

Dontari Poe is a big space-eating defensive tackle who should test the Patriots interior line as well, whoever they roll out there.

Defensive Strategy

With Sealver Siliga unlikely to play, Vince Wilfork and the edges of the defense will have their work cut out for them. Electric running back Jamaal Charles is expected to play, while fellow Chiefs running back Kniles Davis brings a physical element. 

The Chiefs like to hit the edges of the defense hard, so there will be pressure on Rob Ninkovich, Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower to keep containment. 

The Pats run defense has been much better since the travesty that was Week 1 against the Dolphins, but this should be their toughest test since then. Joe Vellano held up far better against double teams vs. the Raiders than Chris Jones did, so Vellano could start next to Wilfork.

Donnie Avery and Dwayne Bowe should provide a good test for the Patriots pass defense but tight end Travis Kelce might be the most dangerous of them all. Patrick Chung has been effective in coverage thus far against tight ends and seems like the favorite to draw coverage on Kelce. If he’s ineffective, Jamie Collins could be called to action.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Block! – If you’ve read just about any intelligent analysis about the Patriots this week, you know that the offensive line is their biggest team issue right now. What’s frustrating is that the guys who have done it in the past – especially Solder and Vollmer – are not doing it now. They need to be the leaders. Regardless of what kind of personnel changes are made, the offensive line must communicate better and simply play at a higher level –  a level they are capable of. They have a great opportunity to right the ship in a tough place to play. That can make a statement.

2. Bombs Away – The Patriots have needed a vertical element to their passing game for going on five seasons. There’s no question the offense is built around Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski and they will move the ball with those two as the primary receivers. But for the offense to truly hit the next level, they need attack the perimeter of the defense. The chance is there this week, but only if the offensive line gives Brady the time to get off accurate throws. It’s all connected, but a couple shots down the field is just what this team needs.

3. First Down Execution – Part of the problems this year have been slow starts especially at the start of the game and the start of the second half. The play calling was over-thought and put the Patriots in yardage holes early. They need to start better in every sense of the word. On first down and early in each half, they need to set themselves up for success later in the game and on the set of downs.

4. Physicality on Defense – The Dolphins often overwhelmed the Chiefs in Week 3 with pure physicality and the Patriots have the personnel to do the same. Dont’a Hightower and Chandler Jones have had superb starts to their third seasons in the NFL and they’ll have to show that to a national audience on Monday night. The defense has shown that they are not the same old Patriots defense we became accustomed to from 2010-2013, and they must continue to build on the success that they have had against a legitimate NFL offense and probably the best quarterback they’ve seen yet this season.

5. Win: As always, what matters most is getting the win. We’re closing out the first quarter of the season, so the time for experimentation and wondering what the Patriots are good and bad at is coming to a close. This game will tell us a lot about the kind of team the 2014 Pats are, especially after a week where a win felt more like a loss. The entire NFL world will be watching to see if there really are any cracks in the Patriots empire. A convincing win on the road in Kansas City would answer that with a resounding “No”.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 3 vs. Oakland Raiders

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The Patriots finally have their home opener Sunday against the 0-2 Raiders! While on paper this might look to be a Pats’ blowout, we’ve seen far too many ugly early-season losses to write in a “W” just yet. Let’s remember this is a Patriots team that lost to the Cardinals at home in 2012. The Cardinals wouldn’t win another road game all year. Figure that one out.

The Pats have been saying all the right things this week – what a legend Charles Woodson is, how good Oakland’s pass defense is, that Derek Carr can make every throw. You know the drill.

But who the opponent is doesn’t really matter, it’s all about focusing on the Patriots and improving. The team has shown glimpses on both sides of the ball, but the consistency has been lacking especially on offense. 

Here’s my strategy and points of emphasis that will hopefully get the Pats to 2-1.

Offensive Strategy

Let’s just start with penalties since the Pats are the second-most penalized team in the NFL. Of course this applies to both sides of the ball, but things were especially ugly on the offensive side of the ball. So many great plays were negated by penalties against the Vikings, it was almost laughable.

But those plays show what this offense is capable of, and if they can play “clean”, they’ll be able to establish some kind of rhythm and momentum. That’s what we haven’t see yet from the offense.

Oakland is giving up 200 rushing yards a game, so that’s a good place to start for a variety reasons. The Pats had a similar game plan last week. Establishing the run allows the offensive line to get comfortable, it puts the defense on their toes and opens them up to play action, and it just sets the physical tone for the game.

While we’d all like to see Tom Brady show some kind of chemistry with one of his newer receivers, ultimately scoring points is what matters most. Chemistry will come as the season progresses and expecting Dobson/LaFell/Thompkins/Wright to suddenly steal the spotlight might be a little too lofty.


Defensive Strategy

Usually, Bill Belichick’s philosophy against young quarterbacks is to play coverage and force continuous execution. Almost always this leads to multiple game-changing turnovers, but sometimes it can backfire. See 2009 vs. Mark Sanchez, 2010 vs. Colt McCoy or even 2011 vs. Dan Orlovsky and the Colts.

But now it would appear the Patriots defense has enough talent to actually cause some disruption with only four rushers. Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Dont’a Hightower should be key, as should Dominique Easley and Chris Jones on passing downs. If those guys are making Derek Carr uncomfortable, it will be nearly impossible for Oakland to win. If Carr has time and establishes a level of comfort an upset is very much possible.

Carr has been fairly balanced in the receivers he’s targeted, with James Jones leading the way so there probably isn’t a need for Revis to shadow anyone. Just playing sound coverage, a strength thus far of the defensive backs, will be key.

Darren McFadden could be a problem if he gets going. I expect the Pats to once again start with Wilfork and Siliga inside for their standard double nose 4-3 run stopping defense. Finally the Pats get a chance to prove they can stop a good NFL running back after the atrocity in Miami.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Ridley Unleashed

With a bottom-ranked Oakland run defense and the way Stevan Ridley ran last week, this could be a career day for the running back in a contract year. Expect some Shane Vereen mixed in as well, and preferably not much Brandon Bolden. If Ridley gets going early it will only help the passing game as well.

2. Play Action Deep Shots

If the ground game is established early, the Patriots could do huge damage with their play action game. Tom Brady is one of the best ball fake quarterbacks ever to play. If Oakland gets too geared up to stop the run, the Pats should take some deep shots, especially at the expense of strong safety Tyvon Branch.

3. Double Nose Run Stoppage

As is the case with most Patriots opponents, their gameplan will likely be focused on keeping the clock moving with their running game and keeping Brady off the field. The focus will be on the Patriots front seven to stop the run and force difficult down-and-distances for Derek Carr.

4. Make Carr go thru progressions

What cannot be allowed to happen is for Carr to find a rhythm with quick completions to his primary targets. Carr can make any throw despite this being his rookie year. If a receiver is open and Carr has time, he’ll make the throw. As mentioned above, the Pats need to bring pressure with four, but they also cannot allow easy completions by playing soft zones. Expect plenty of press man to force Carr to decide who will get off the line of scrimmage and who won’t.

5. Win

There are few easy games on an NFL schedule and this is as close as the Pats will get to an easy one until the end of the year, if/when the playoff positions have already been decided. From after this game until December it’s all divisional rivals and playoff teams, with the explosive offenses of Chicago and Detroit sprinkled in, and there will surely be a couple losses in there. That’s why the Patriots cannot afford to take this one lightly. 

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 2 at Minnesota Vikings

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We’re finally on to Week 2, putting the ugly season-opening loss to Miami behind us! The Minnesota Vikings provide just the right kind of tough challenges the Patriots need to face to prove they’re not the team that laid a major egg on the road in Miami last week.

Here’s our game plan!

Offensive Strategy

The Patriots offense was disjointed but effective in the first half against Miami. But it was too reminiscent of last year’s offense that was completely reliant on Edelman and Vereen. Amendola and LaFell were mostly invisible and Brady got locked onto Gronk a little too much. It’s understandable he’d want to get Gronk involved early and often to get back up to game speed, but Gronk’s progress back to normal isn’t going to happen over night. 

The important pieces are Kenbrell Thompkins and hopefully Aaron Dobson. Thompkins flashed a lot of potential this offseason once again, but wasn’t much of a factor against the Dolphins. If Dobson can return and Thompkins can start to make some significant plays, the Pats offense can stop being so one-dimensional with Edelman/Vereen.

This week the Pats have to spread the ball around and when the playmakers have the ball in their hands they have to make plays. 

Defensive Strategy

(Update 9/12 afternoon – Adrian Peterson is no longer playing due to his indictment for reckless or negligent injury to a child). Not having to face the best running back in the game is helpful for the Pats run defense, it’s just a shame why he won’t be playing regardless. 

Cordarrelle Patterson now becomes the primary focus for the Pats’ defense.

The trio of Alfonzo Dennard, Devin McCourty and Darrelle Revis will have their work cut out for them, especially when coming down to contain the inevitable end-arounds the Vikes will run.

Upfront the Pats might want to lean on Wilfork and Siliga in the middle. A return to the double nose 4-3 makes the most sense to me (see below), especially if Jamie Collins is limited or out.

The rotation between Chung and Harmon at safety is one interesting area to watch. Chung is effective in the box but now without Peterson it might make sense to load the back end. The deep pass defense has been an issue in recent years. We assume they’ve been fixed with Revis in the fold, but now it’s time to prove it.

Points of Emphasis

1. Tackle: How different last week’s outcome could’ve been if the Pats had missed just a few less tackles. It might’ve been just a six-point game as Brady got the ball back, setting up a chance to win the game on the final drive, something he’s certainly capable of. It’s little surprise that tackling was so sloppy with the new rules in training camp, but it’s no excuse, they have to be better. Simply wrapping up and making the plays they’re in position to make will make a world of difference this week for the defense.

2. Do Your Job: Too many mistakes were made last week with guys trying to compensate for mistakes and it could be easy to get rattled after the results were so ugly. Players on both sides of the ball must play within the system and within themselves and not try to do too much. Focusing on this kind of thinking is what can get the team back on track playing clean and complimentary football. 

3. Back to the Double Nose: With Jamie Collins limited on Thursday and missing practice on Friday, there’s  chance the Pats could be short a linebacker this weekend. There are worse games he could miss. I think the best combo upfront would be Wilfork and Siliga inside, with Chandler and Ninkovich at defensive end, returning to the “double nose” defense of the past couple seasons.

If Chris Jones can get back that would be a big boost. Darius Fleming could be thrust into the fire at SLB if Collins is out, but sliding Hightower to MLB and Mayo to WLB might maximize both their effectiveness in the run game.

4. Block: Belichick said Mike Zimmer might just zerox his gameplan from last season when his Bengals defense held the Patriots to just 1-for-13 on third down. The Bengals had back-to-back third down sacks on the Pats first two possessions of the game and that set the tone. Per PFF, they blitzed 14 of 42 snaps, which doesn’t sound like a lot, but when you have Geno Atkins (which the Vikings do not) it certainly helps. 

There’s no question the Pats protection struggled last week and even when they did get everyone blocked it looked far from smooth. Maybe it was the rotation, maybe it was just early-season jitters, but the Patriots offense has to get it together this week.

5. Win: As always, all that matters is getting that first win of the season. Even with a second loss it’s not time to panic, but this Patriots team needs to find themselves sooner than later. There wasn’t a lot to feel good about after last week’s second half, but there’s a huge opportunity to right the ship this week. Mike Zimmer’s defense had their way with the Pats last year. Overcoming these elements on the road will plant a lot of confidence in the 2014 Pats and put them on track for the kind of season we all expect out of them.