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Patriots Game Plan: Week 16 @ Jets

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If you haven’t heard, the Patriots are already being pencilled in to face the Packers in the Super Bowl. These last two games against the lowly Jets and Bills, who once again lost the division to the Pats, will have no impact on the Pats’ paper-thin grasp on the top seed in the AFC, so we don’t even really need to tune in. Or do we?

That’s how things probably look to most outside of New England, those who only remember the 45-3 stomping of the Jets in 2010 or the Buttfumble game of Thanksgiving 2012. But in reality, every game between Rex Ryan’s Jets and the Patriots is incredibly close.

The Jets would have beaten the Patriots in Foxboro in Week 7 had the final field goal not been blocked by Chris Jones. Throw out the Buttfumble game and the last four meetings between the two teams have been decided by 11 total points, with two of them going to overtime.

Yes, we can throw records out the window when these two teams meet. Say what you will about Rex Ryan as a head coach, but as a defensive game planner, no one is more adept at giving Tom Brady and the Pats’ offense problems.

This game concerns me and the Pats have a lot to lose. Here’s the gameplan for getting by a very tough road test that some are dubbing “meaningless”.

Offensive Game Plan

As I said in last week’s game plan, by now we know who we are and the strength of the Jets defense (run defense) only encourages the Pats to be who they are –  a passing offense that throws to score and runs to win. 

Now, there’s certainly something to be said for getting Jonas Grey more involved earlier this week and I’m all for that. But rarely is a game plan more obvious. The Pats should spread the Jets out, making them dig deep into the secondary depth to cover all of New England’s targets.

This means more Shane Vereen, Tim Wright and Danny Amendola, and less Hooman and Develin. And I’m sure no one will complain about that.

The biggest concern, as always, is along the interior of the offensive line where the weak link of the Pats’ offense faces the strength of the Jets’. As I write every week in these game plan articles, it all comes down to protecting Brady, but Sheldon Richardson owning Dan Connolly all game and ruining the Pats offensive game plan is a very-possible recipe for disaster.

Spread the Jets out, get the ball out quick and get an early lead to extinguish any energy they might bring early in this one and the Pats should roll.

Defensive Game Plan

Remember in Week 7, when Revis gave up three catches on four targets, including a 24-yarder to Eric Decker, as the hapless Pats couldn’t get off the field against the Jets and everyone started to question if Revis still had it?

Well, safe to say those days are behind us, but I think Revis will play with something to prove in the Meadowlands. I do think we’ll see the Pats playing more sides in the secondary than staying with specific receivers.

We saw more Cover-3 last week and that should continue this week, especially with how the Pats were burned by Geno Smith tucking and running in the first matchup.

Up front, we gonna do what we do. The Pats now have a lethal dose of pass rushers and space-eaters. And it starts with stopping the run, since the Jets ran wild all over the Pats the first time around.

That shouldn’t be a problem with Wilfork/Branch/Siliga locking things down inside now. Without the running game to lean on, the Jets offense will struggle and that’s when the airtight coverage in the secondary comes into play. That is the strength of the Pats defense and forcing the Jets to play into it is priority one.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Build the Wall: Looking back at Week 7 and the stat that jumps off the page is the Jets’ 218 rushing yards. That led into them being 9-of-16 on third down, as they had manageable distances. This time around Sealver Siliga and Alan Branch are in the mix, along with a fully healthy Chris Jones. The edges are equally important with Ninkovich, Chandler, Ayers and Hightower all having that assignment throughout the game. Stop the run and the Jets offense will wilt.

2. Keep Offense On Time: Rex Ryan’s defense feasts on third-and-longs, where his deception and overloaded blitzes have extra time to get to Tom Brady. How do we avoid third-and-longs? By winning on first and second down. The Pats haven’t been good the last two weeks trying to run on first down, averaging 3.3 yards-per-rush. I’d be fine if they go pass-heavy, but if they do try to “establish the run” Jonas Gray has been far better than Blount running against a base defense, averaging 6.3 yards per first down carry. Whether it’s the quick passing offense or runs with Gray, winning on early downs will be key to mounting scoring drives.

3. Make Geno Throw: The last thing we need is for the Pats’ pass rush to get overzealous, opening up running lanes for Geno Smith. Smith converted three third downs in Week 7 by scrambling. Those kind of drive-extending plays are the worst. I don’t think anyone believes Geno has the kind of accuracy to pick the Pats’ secondary apart. Keep him in the pocket, only rush two if you have to, but make him beat us through the air.

4. 60 Minutes: We’d all love it if the Pats could just turn in two average, injury-free performances and sew up the top seed in the AFC, but neither the Jets nor Buffalo are going to let us off easy. And really, that might be a good thing for the Super Bowl prospects of the Pats. They can’t ease up or their road to Arizona will get much tougher. They’ll have to have all their focus and competitiveness for a full 60 minutes this weekend. Rex will not go down without a fight and his players will want to send him out with a win over their hated rival. The Patriots must be ready for a motivated football team, at least for the first half.

5. Win – This is what it all boils down to. This could be the last time the Pats play a road game until they potentially go to Arizona. That in and of itself is motivation to put a strong exclamation point on this season’s road wins. New England has won against some very good teams on the road this year, and in convincing fashion in Indy. A win puts them one game away from a very advantageous road. That should be all the motivation they need.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

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It’s been a long short-week where just about everything that can be criticized on a football team has been ripped to shreds by every media outlet. The Pats always have some early-season drama but they’ve never looked quite as bad as they did against the Chiefs. 

Now an undefeated Bengals team comes to town, setting the Pats up for another national broadcast dogfight. The Patriots have almost always bounced back after bad losses during the Belichick regime. Can they do it again? The odds have never seemed more against them.

Offensive Gameplan

The Pats did a good job of slowing things down against the Chiefs and focusing on getting everyone on the same page pre-snap. As a result there were less blown plays due to trying to go too fast. That should continue this week, but the gameplan must rely on the ground game and establishing it early. 

It would appear after a week of controversy and back-to-back games in the stands, that Aaron Dobson should be chomping at the bit to get out there. If the Pats can get him involved, especially in a Dobson-LaFell-Edelman-Gronkowski package (take your pick of RB), the Pats offense will have the kind of size they’ve never had.

Defensive Gameplan

Fundamentals. In my All-22 defensive film review I broke down that most of their problems were simply missed tackles, blown contain, or trying to do too much. The young leaders on the defense, specifically Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower, have to set the tone. When they do that, good things happen and this defense is capable of being a proverbial “elite” one.

The Patriots are much better on defense than they showed against the Chiefs, and I continue to believe they are just inches away from showing how good they can be. The Bengals have plenty of weapons to challenge the Pats, but if they get Alfonzo Dennard back, and are able to sprinkle some Brandon Browner in, the Pats should be ready to get back to their physical ways.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. OL Continuity: Tough one this week with Cameron Fleming unlikely to play after missing all of practice this week with a “finger”. Does Cannon go to RG now – if so who’s the third tackle/blocking TE? Or how about Wendell who looked okay there in his first non-center action. Regardless I think Stork earned another start and Connolly must keep repping at guard. The only way the protection and blocking will get better is as one unit settles in to playing with each other. That can’t happen with more constant rotation. Keep as many pieces in place as possible and just keep rolling them out there.

2. Commit to the Run: The Patriots have just gotten too cute with their gameplans in recent weeks. It’s like they think this is still the 2011 team that would force teams to pick their poison. Now, they have to pick the poison themselves and jam it down the opposition’s throat. They need the attitude of the run game to establish what kind of game this will be. It can also give the OL some confidence as they get to exert their will instead of sitting back and pass blocking right off the bat. Run early. Run often.

3. Stop Sub Runs: An early-season theme for the Patriots has been getting gashed by the run against their sub defense. They’ve corrected the problem in the past, and need to do so again this year. Facing Gio Bernard is no easy task and he has the kind of speed and elusiveness to give the Patriots defense fits. No question, stopping the run from the base defense is imperative as it always is, but it’s the sub defense, likely with Wilfork anchoring them, that must be ready to stop Bernard. Hightower, Mayo and Collins are key players.

4. Man-handle them: The Pats have sprinkled in some man defense over the first four weeks, but this week is the time to get aggressive with it. The Bengals get the ball away quick, that’s why Andy Dalton has yet to be sacked. Taking away that quick passing game is key. It gives the pressure a chance to get there and disrupts the timing of what has been a very efficient offense to this point.

5. Win: The Pats’ backs are against the wall and now face a good team in a national game. This is what football is all about. Yes, the playoffs are what matter most, but if you can’t enjoy the up-and-down journey of the regular season, you’re missing out. A win over an undefeated Bengals team will completely change the conversation around the Patriots. Let’s just hope it’s not an ugly and/or undeserved victory and that they show consistency and progress on both sides of the ball.

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In reality, so much of this week’s game plan will be wrapped up in the idea that the Patriots get to an early lead. It’s always a point of emphasis for New England, but as was the case last Monday against Houston, you don’t want to dig yourself an early hole when facing the Niners, because they are very tough when they have a lead: on offense, that allows them to play to their strengths (running the ball and grinding the clock). And on defense, if they know a team needs to throw the ball to stay in the game, they can unleash Smith and a very good pass rush.

patriots – One scout’s breakdown of Patriots-Niners: Look for San Francisco to slow it down – WEEI | Christopher Price

https://www.patspropaganda.com/in-reality-so-much-of-this-weeks-game-plan-will/

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If there’s vulnerability in the Houston defense, it’s in the secondary – specifically, at corner. Cornerback Brice McCain fractured his foot during Sunday’s win over the Titans and is lost for the year, while fellow cornerback Johnathan Joseph (who has traditionally been matched against the opponents’ best receiver) has been battling a hamstring issue. As good as the Texans are when it comes to getting after the passer, they are strictly middle of the road when it comes to overall pass defense – Houston yields an average of 235 passing yards per game, 19th in the NFL. (Things have deteriorated to the point where the Texans signed defensive back Stanford Routt off the street on Tuesday.) Most times, Houston has compensated for injuries (or substandard play) in the secondary by dialing up the pass rush. It’s questionable as to whether or not it can do it again on Monday night against the best passing offense it will face all season.

One scout’s breakdown of Patriots-Texans: Houston presents unique matchup situations – WEEI | Christopher Price

Great stuff, packed with scout insight.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-texans-game-plan/

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Beating man coverage a key. Welker noted that the Bills mix things up coverage-wise and “play a lot of different type of man coverages, and they do a good job with that.” Welker and fellow receiver Brandon Lloyd had success beating man coverage Sunday night in Baltimore, so this will be an area to watch once again. “You’ve got to make sure you’re not sloppy with them, and run great routes,” Welker opined, later adding that the game has added importance because it’s the team’s first AFC East contest.

New England Patriots Blog – ESPN Boston

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-welker-2/

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Bills pressure will be different than what the Patriots faced last week vs. Baltimore – Baltimore brought more pressure from different looks, where they would overload a side and bring rushers from different places. Buffalo is built to get pressure with their front four. They will look for match-ups and try to use inside rushes to prevent Brady from stepping up in the pocket and allow big-money edge rushers to get there against the Patriots tackles.

Sometimes scout’s breakdowns actually make me think I almost know what I’m talking about…

patriots – One scout’s breakdown of Patriots-Bills: Slowing Buffalo pass rush is key – WEEI | Christopher Price

This one too:

“The Patriots must disrupt timing of Buffalo passing game and make Ryan Fitzpatrick uncomfortable. The Buffalo offense is based off quick reads and decisions. C.J. Spiller has added speed in the running game, and the difference between Spiller and Jackson is the speed to exploit defense. Jackson runs hard, has vision and is a quality back, but Spiller speed exploits creases in defense created by the spacing of Buffalo’s offense. If Spiller is out, an explosive element is gone from Buffalo’s game plan. New England must gang-tackle Jackson – he’s strong enough to break through the initial hit – and hit Spiller often.” 

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-bills-14/