football outsiders

Football Outsiders: Playoff Odds and the Patriots

December 8, 2010 by Mike Dussault

Football Outsiders has updated their playoff odds rankings and here’s how things look for the Patriots:

To Make Playoffs: 99.8% (Jets 96.6%)
To Win AFC East: 81.8% (Jets 17.8%)
#1 AFC Seed: 70.7% (Jets 10.2%, for #2 Seed 7.7%)
#5 AFC Seed: 15.0% (Jets 18.2%)

Given the odds right now, here’s how the playoffs would shape up:

AFC

Patriots
Steelers
Chiefs
Jacksonville
Jets
Ravens

Given these matchups I don’t think anyone would argue that a Pats-Ravens, Steelers-Jets divisional round could be in the cards. Of course there will upsets and twists and turns along the way in these last four games. Indy and San Diego aren’t dead just yet. Thought the Colts have about a 10% better chance at the playoffs than the Chargers do.

NFC (for those who care)

Falcons
Packers
Eagles
Rams
Saints
Giants

Worth noting that the NFC is still really close, with 8 teams in contention for the 6 spots.

December 7, 2010 by Mike Dussault

Updated Patriots DVOA Chart. (note – defense is inverted to better show trend)

The offense continues to, in the words of John Harbaugh, “bury teams”. The defense finally starting to show some improvement, while the Special Teams remain solid but unspectacular.

One thing that Football Outsiders points out, and it’s something we’ve harped on recently, is that it is kind of cliche to say the young defense keeps on improving every week. It’s just an assumption that isn’t really true. Of course if you’ve been following the DVOA charts I post every week then you already knew that. Here’s what FO said:

One of the popular beliefs on Boston talk radio is that the Patriots’ young defense is improving with experience. They are, but not by a substantial amount. In Weeks 1-9, the Patriots were 27th in the NFL with 16.2% defensive DVOA. In Weeks 10-13, they are 16th in the NFL with 11.0% defensive DVOA. We’ve had four very offense-filled weeks of football, so the Patriots’ rank in the league is much better over the past month, but the defense itself is only slightly improved.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/updated-patriots-dvoa-chart-note-defense-is/

Patriots Pass Defense: Actually Good vs. Third & Fourth WRs

November 27, 2010 by Mike Dussault

My favorite football stats site Football Outsiders has some pretty nifty breakdowns of each teams pass defense versus each different receiving option on each team they faced.

Here’s where the Pats rank on each:

vs. #1 WR: 27th overall

vs. #2 WR: 27th overall

vs. Other WR: 4th overall

vs. TE: 25th overall

vs. RB: 29th overall

Say what you will about slot corner Jonathan Wilhite but these numbers do point somewhat positively toward him.

November 16, 2010 by Mike Dussault

Patriots DVOA Chart (thru week 10)

The offense had a great week, but the defense was clearly hurt by the 4th quarter prevent defense. Special Teams continues a slow decline, could have a break out versus the Colts.

See the full rankings here.

(Mike D’s note: I flipped the defensive DVOA to positive to make it a little easier to read.)

https://www.patspropaganda.com/patriots-dvoa-chart-thru-week-10-the-offense/

October 27, 2010 by Mike Dussault

New England Patriots DVOA Trends

Above you’ll find the Football Outsiders rankings for the Patriots broken down by week. One important thing to note is that you want your defensive ranking to be negative, while you want you offense and special teams to go up.

So what can we tell from this graph? The defense is definitely improving on almost a week by week basis. However the offense has been slowly trending downward. Special Teams have been solid, and slowly trending upwards.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/new-england-patriots-dvoa-trends-above-youll/