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Pats Posits: SB51 Here We Come

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Bill Belichick Super Bowl 36

Here it is folks, the week we all live for, it’s Super Bowl week.

I spent the weekend getting sucked into more Patriots historical pieces than I expected. First came the fourth quarter of Super Bowl 49. For the first time I was able to watch the Kearse Katch happen again. That moment always brought quick-onset Pats pit in the stomach, until now. Now I’m pretty confident Butler will in fact intercept the ball every time afterwards.

Malcolm Butler flashed not just on the interception, but on multiple plays before that. It was a nice reminder of how well he played that entire season, with plenty of glimpses toward what he would become.

Then came Do Your Job, and I still fast forwarded through the Deflategate bullshit.

Bill Belichick’s A Football Life came next, part one followed immediately by part two. I was amazed how much I’d forgotten, and truly what a disaster the 2009 season was. Every Kraft and Belichick interaction was awkward as ever, while the CaserioBot was still on version 3.1.

I even watched about 38 seconds combined of the Super Bowl 42 and 46 recap shows. Progress.

Combined, it put the Belichick/Brady run in new perspective now as they head toward their seventh together. It was a good week of prep on the Falcons, it will be a big circus this week.

Let’s enjoy every moment of it!
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One Stat to Define Super Bowl 51 Matchup

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We’re still over a week away from Super Bowl 51 and the analysis of the matchup between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons has been pouring in. This is what I live for — one opponent to focus on for an extended period of time.

In all my research into how the teams match up there’s one stat that really stick out like a Brian Baldinger Finger and that is Yards After Catch. It’s quite simple really:

  • Falcons Offense: 2nd in YAC (148.9 yards-per-game) vs. Patriots Defense: 1st in Preventing YAC (91.4 yards-per-game)
  • Pariots Offense: 3rd in YAC (145.9 yards-per-game) vs. Falcons Defense: 32nd in Preventing YAC (132.9 yards-per-game)

Usually, stats don’t really tell the whole story when presented without context. Things like yardage and sacks, stats that many use as a crutch to support their arguments are incredibly dependent on how particular games unfold. Nobody knows this better than Patriots fans, who’ve seen plenty of mush rush discipline and soft zones when they have a big lead. Those kind of situational stats don’t really tell us a lot about how good a team really is.

But Yards-After-Catch are pretty good indicators of two things — how much an offense leans on their receivers to make plays on short throws and how well defenses get into position and tackle. Those are strong tells of how the game will be fought and in the case of YAC, the stats firmly favor the Patriots.

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A Look Back at How Pats Defended Falcons in 2013

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The Pats haven’t seen the Falcons since Sunday Night Football in Week Four of 2013. Here were my post-game takeaways back when I was writing for Bleacher Report.

Schematically, at least for the Falcons’ defense, there’s isn’t a ton to take away. This is even more true when you consider the Pats leading receiver was Kenbrell Thompkins with six catches, 127 yards and a touchdown. Julian Edelman wasn’t far behind seven catches for 118 yards.

The Pats rolled Stevan Ridley, LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden as their running backs, none of whom are anywhere close to the receiving threats Dion Lewis and James White are. The Falcons’ defensive coordinator was Mike Nolan back then, so the Seattle-esque defensive scheme had not been installed.

However, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones were still the straws stirring the drink back then so it’s worth taking a look at how the Pats defended them.

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Five First Impressions of the Falcons

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The extra week off gives a little extra time to jump into some more in-depth film review of the opponent, so I’ve enjoyed the chance to take a look at the Falcons. Admittedly, I get so focused on the Patriots during the season it’s hard to keep track of what every other team is doing, especially in the NFC.

First, the obvious thing to get out of the way is that the Falcons’ offense is explosive. Julio Jones and Devontae Freeman are two players that jump off the screen. Defensively, they’re fast and do a fair amount of rotation up front to keep players fresh. Vic Beasley and his 15.5 sacks are the biggest overall threat.

Here’s what Belichick had to say about the Falcons overall:

“I’d say the stamp on the team, the thing that I would notice the most is just the speed, the team speed that the Falcons have,” Belichick said. “They have a lot of fast guys. Defensively they close up space very quickly. Their linebackers run well. Their defensive line, although they have a couple of big, strong, physical guys in there, overall they have usually nine or 10 players on the field that I would say are fast. They’re either as fast or faster than probably what the average speed of their position is in the league. I’d say that’s a big stamp that (Dimitroff) has put on the team.

We saw plenty of matchups against both a fast defense (Colts 2000s) and the Seahawks scheme so I expect the Patriots will have a good idea how to attack them. The Pats certainly have the heavy personnel option to test their physicality, but there are plenty of favorable coverage matchups to exploit as well.

Here are my five other initial impressions of Atlanta:

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Don’t Bet on a Super Bowl 51 Shootout

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Sports Illustrated gave an early preview of their Super Bowl cover this week and as you can see below the headline matches what pretty much everyone has been writing/thinking: SHOOTOUT!

Yes, the Falcons have put up 80 points in their two playoff games combined and broke 38 points seven other times this season. The Patriots are no slouches either, having put up 70 points in their two playoff games. The opening over/under was 58.5, the highest over/under in Super Bowl history, but I wouldn’t go betting the over just yet.

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Five Early Pats-Falcons Super Bowl 51 Links

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Well, it was nice to wake up the morning after winning the AFC Championship without the entire NFL world standing outside our window with pitchforks. Yes, it’s still sinking in that the Patriots are going back to the Super Bowl for the second time in three years. Despite the Patriots being the best team in AFC by a considerable margin, you never take these things for granted and I’m going to savor every moment of the next two weeks.

Here’s some things to share and some commentary as the Patriots-Falcons hype has already begun…

1. We’re at that point now where it seems like every time the Patriots win a game, especially a playoff game, a bunch of records fall. Here’s a full list from Patriots.com of all the records that were broken or will be broken in the Super Bowl. My favorites:

  • Tom Brady can tie Charles Haley as the only two players with five Super Bowl rings. Brady will also set the record for most Super Bowls played.
  • Bill Belichick would surpass Chuck Noll with five Super Bowl championships. He will already set the record for most appearances by a coach (10).

2. Predictably everyone thinks SB51 will be a shootout, but the Patriots defense is so sound I think they’ll force Atlanta to work harder for yards than they’ve had to. This chart from PFF sums it up.

3. I always enjoy Andy Benoit’s strategy pieces and he immediately dropped this one on Monday laying out the potential matchups. Here was his general feeling about how the Pats’ defense should approach the Falcons offense.

[W]e see a defense that mostly sticks to straight man or zone, rarely employing hybrid coverages. A defense that, like any, occasionally blitzes a fifth rusher, but far more often is content to rush the usual four. A defense that changes its fronts frequently, particularly against the run, but doesn’t go too far out of its way to disguise them. In simplest terms, the Patriots just line up and play. They rely on sound, fundamental execution. This is how they must approach the Falcons, and it must be done very physically. Line up in straight man-to-man and hit your individual opponent in the mouth. If the Patriots aren’t flagged four or five times for various illegal uses of hands—be it holding, illegal contact, hands to the face, maybe even pass interference—they’re playing too soft.

4. Greg A. Bedard weighed in with his early thoughts on the matchup as well, matching a general sentiment that both teams should move the ball, but it looks like the Pats defense might have a small edge over the Falcons’.

To beat Brady, you have to disguise and change up both the pressure and coverage looks on just about every snap. The Falcons, to this point, have not shown the ability to do that. That will be an important factor in the game. Ryan has trouble with tight, disciplined coverage. With Malcolm Butler locking up either Julio Jones or Mohamed Sanu, and Logan Ryan on the other with safety help, Ryan may have to make a living throwing to the running backs and TEs Levine Toilolo and Austin Hooper. The Patriots have had more issues with supporting actors than those in starring roles. The Falcons have the ability to exploit that.

5. PFF has 10 Stats to Know about Super Bowl 51 and this one is the scariest:

Including the playoffs, Matt Ryan’s passer rating when kept clean is 131.1, the best mark in the NFL by over 10 points.

Any QB can play well when he’s not under pressure, right? While that may be true, the level Matt Ryan is playing at right now when he is kept clean is a level above anyone else in the league. He has been virtually unstoppable this season when he hasn’t been pressured, and if the Patriots can’t apply some heat in the Super Bowl, it’s going to be a long day for their secondary, given the efficiency with which Ryan has been carving up the rest of the league from clean pockets.