We’re still over a week away from Super Bowl 51 and the analysis of the matchup between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons has been pouring in. This is what I live for — one opponent to focus on for an extended period of time.
In all my research into how the teams match up there’s one stat that really stick out like a Brian Baldinger Finger and that is Yards After Catch. It’s quite simple really:
- Falcons Offense: 2nd in YAC (148.9 yards-per-game) vs. Patriots Defense: 1st in Preventing YAC (91.4 yards-per-game)
- Pariots Offense: 3rd in YAC (145.9 yards-per-game) vs. Falcons Defense: 32nd in Preventing YAC (132.9 yards-per-game)
Usually, stats don’t really tell the whole story when presented without context. Things like yardage and sacks, stats that many use as a crutch to support their arguments are incredibly dependent on how particular games unfold. Nobody knows this better than Patriots fans, who’ve seen plenty of mush rush discipline and soft zones when they have a big lead. Those kind of situational stats don’t really tell us a lot about how good a team really is.
But Yards-After-Catch are pretty good indicators of two things — how much an offense leans on their receivers to make plays on short throws and how well defenses get into position and tackle. Those are strong tells of how the game will be fought and in the case of YAC, the stats firmly favor the Patriots.
For as much crap as the Patriots’ defense has gotten over this season, there isn’t a better fundamental defense in the NFL. They may lack a couple unstoppable individuals, but they play together as one and they get ball carriers down quick. The media undervalues that kind of defense, but it’s the kind of defense that makes life incredibly difficult for offenses.
You don’t need a mathematics degree to see the disparity between the two teams and how it could likely play out next Sunday. The Falcons will move the ball, but each ball carrier will be quickly tackled. This forces continued execution and, just like we saw in 2013, even 13-play drives are a fail against New England if they end in field goals.
The Falcons defense has been getting praise for their team speed, but speed doesn’t always translate to tackles, especially when it’s 260-pound LeGarrette Blount barreling down the field. Or the slippery Julian Edelman who seems to evade the first would-be tackler almost every time.
This is very likely where Super Bowl 51 will be won or lost. If the Patriots tackle like they have all season, the should be able to slow down the Falcon offense, at least a bit. And on the other side of the ball, every missed or broken Falcon tackle on a Patriots ball carrier will just be another nail in their coffin.
Most fans don’t understand what they are seeing. Team defense and Brady’s pre snap reads don’t register like wow plays from Rodgers or Von Miller. What the Pats doesnt wow you but it wins games better than any HoF back or receiver ever did? Let’s talk about fake scandals, “unstoppable” offenses, nonsense spewed by Shank Shaughnessy instead of a fundamentally sound, disciplined, tough, team. Belichick has slowing down unstoppable defenses for about 30 years now.