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draft

Patriots draft notes: Wide Receivers and Cornerbacks edition

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We’re up to 30+ prospects on the 2012 Patriots-only big board but we had a couple thoughts to share. It’s hard to get too much into the draft and talk about needs before Free Agency, just like it’s hard to talk about Free Agency before all the Franchise Tags have been handed out.

Regardless, cornerback and wide receiver are two interesting groups with this draft class that I think bring up some questions when it comes to draft strategy.

Let’s start with the wide receivers. The Patriots have a need for an outside-the-numbers X receiver, which is a pretty hard player to find no matter what team you are. This year’s draft class features quite a few bigger receivers who aren’t exactly down-the-field burners, but are physical and have some savvy.

So the question it raises is if a guy like Michael Floyd or Mohamed Sanu would be appealing to the Patriots even without that 4.3 speed? Outside of their deep speed they look like solid fits. Let’s not forget the Patriots lack size and physicality at the receiver position as well as the proverbial “deep threat”.

I believe the Pats would and should seriously consider this type of receiver even though they might lack the deep speed to stretch the field vertically.

The advantage that large wide receivers can give you is that they’re a mismatch on small corners, especially if they’re left on an island. This ends up having the same result as a wide receiver who is a threat to get deep with his speed, instead here you’ve got to give your corner help with a safety because if you don’t you could be a quick wide receiver screen and a broken tackle away from a big gain.

There is more than one way to stretch a field, so I will not be ignoring this class of big, physical wide outs just because they lack deep speed in a year where everyone wants Mike Wallace or the draft equivalent.

As for cornerbacks I’ve seen a lot of mocks giving the Patriots Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins is undeniably intriguing from an on-the-field perspective but his off-the-field baggage has been well documented as well.

I don’t always write off a player immediately based on off-the-field stuff even though we are talking about the Patriots who have a penchant for what I call “football nerds”.

Regardless of whether Jenkins is a changed man who can fall in line in Foxboro or not, when I look at the rest of the corner class, especially the players ranked just below Jenkins there look to be some excellent Patriots prospects.

Stephon Gilmore, Chase Minnifield, Trumaine Johnson, and Jayron Hosely may all be slightly less talented than Jenkins, but all of them seem to me as safer choices who have the intangibles that they look for at the Football Academy in Foxboro.

With only a small drop off in talent, but a much safer off-the-field profile, there are plenty of corners in the 2nd and 3rd round for the Pats to choose from. I expect them to make the safe play, rather than take a risk on Jenkins.

Preliminary Patriots draft notes and thoughts on “value drafting”

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We’ve jumped head-first into draft prep over the last week and it’s been exciting getting to know this year’s prospects. As we slowly compose our Patriots Big Board we have some general draft thoughts to share after our initial impression of what’s out there.

This will be our fourth Patriots draft that we’ve extensively blogged about. Each year I think I learn a little bit more about scouting and specifically the Patriots process in how they pick their players, because unlike most draft pundits out there I only focus on the Pats.

What I think a lot of draft pundits fail to understand is how the Patriots style of “value drafting” really works. Most mocks are simple, paint by numbers, “the Patriots are up, here are their needs, and here’s the top ranked player of those needs.

This is not value drafting. Sure, sometimes it works out that way, but ultimately only the Patriots know the true value of each player to their specific system.

A player could seem like a great fit for one of the Patriots first round slots to us outsiders, but if they have a second round grade on the player they will not select him there. Doesn’t mean they don’t like the player or that the player couldn’t help them. They’d just rather take him in the second round while everyone else thinks he’s a first rounder.

Last year’s situation with Mark Ingram is a great example. He seemed like a great fit in an area of need, coming from a Belichick-connected coach. Yet the Patriots saw far better value with Ridley and Vereen later in the draft, who together cost as much as Ingram did. That’s value drafting. That’s how you protect your team against injuries, failed expectations and the salary cap.

This is why I believe perhaps the most important thing to look at when considering the Patriots draft is which positions have the greatest depth and how those positions relate to the Patriots needs.

In 2010, it was tight ends. The Patriots took two of them in the early rounds. In 2011, it was running backs, and again the Pats took two of them in the early rounds.

My early impression of the 2012 draft is that the greatest depth is along the interior line, centers and guards, both positions of long term need for the Patriots.

So while we can all hope the Pats take a potential star at one of the bigger areas of need with their first pick, one thing I can see coming together is using multiple high picks on interior lineman.

There is no question that need affects value. So by that token Patriots fans should be cheering for all tackle and quarterback selections prior to the Pats’ picks. These are areas of lesser need for New England, thus driving more value down the board to the Pats slots.

Notes on Needs

X WR: There should also be some value in the second round for potential X receivers. If the Pats did take a WR with a first round pick he’d likely have to have "The Great Deep Threat Hope” tattooed on his forehead.

Safety: Barron is an easy pick to make in a mock draft, but there should be some safety value in the 2nd/3rd round as well. My initial instinct is that this is an area they’ll address after the first round. Personally I’d prefer more of a coverage safety with range to get over the top as opposed to an ‘in the box’ type. Patriots safeties need to do both, but someone who excels more at the back end is my preference. Will be interested to get a better idea of how Barron moves at the combine.

Center/Guard: Lots of good prospects who fit the Patriots style. If a lot of tackles go early the Pats could be in prime position to get one of the best Centers or Guards in the draft at 27. A lot of people will cry about this. I will not.

DL: Fletcher Cox is the current Pats favorite on the majority of mock drafts, however the Pats-type DL depth isn’t great. I am on board with Cox, but if they miss out on him they might have to wait until the later rounds to get a more developmental guy. Lots of potential 5-techniques out there and I see that as a significant need, but not as big as a Mike Wright-type who can play numerous positions, most importantly interior rusher on passing downs. That’s a need Cox would fill, but there’s no guarantee he falls to 27, and if he doesn’t there isn’t another guy with value in that spot that I see after my initial research.

OLB: The hardest position to project for the Patriots is always the most debated. So many factors this year: will they go back to a 3-4, can the prospect convert to play in space, will Mark Anderson/Andre Carter be back, is Jermaine Cunningham still a factor, how will Markell Carter factor in? Lots to wonder and debate about. So far there do seem like some guys who would fit well, narrowing them down will be one of my toughest tasks over the next two months.

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New England Patriots: I know, they get more picks than other teams, but that is no accident. Most of the teams who draft well usually draft in the top 15, but the Patriots consistently have success drafting in the bottom half of the draft. Devin McCourty is a star CB with 7 interceptions in his rookie year. The tight end combination of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez was dynamic. Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes made big contributions on the defensive side. 14-2 while rebuilding the defense was very impressive.

Collinsworth

https://www.patspropaganda.com/new-england-patriots-i-know-they-get-more-picks/

Patriots-only Draft Big Board: The Final Draft

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Twas the day before the draft and all through NFL nation, not a draft board was moving, not even Mel Kiper Jr’s. Okay, maybe that’s not entirely accurate, surely teams are definitely finalizing their boards at this moment and we’re doing the same.

It’s been our most extensive year of draft research, one that has been aided by great film on YouTube, great discussion with my fellow Pats draftniks on Twitter and on the podcast with Erik Frenz, and extensive research on all the major draft sites.

So with all this research does it mean we’re ready to nail the Patriots draft before it even happens? Not even close. But it’s certainly fun to think that maybe, just maybe, a significant percentage of the soon-to-be-selected-by-the-Pats prospects are currently on our big board below.

I am well prepared to have the Pats select a high round pick that I barely even considered, or someone that I wrote off completely. As BB says, it is what it is, and I look forward to retroactively analyzing what the Pats saw that I didn’t.

So without further ado, here it is, our final Patriots-only big board….

Patspropaganda.com 2011 New England Patriots Mock Big Board

  1. Marcel Dareus (DL, 6-03, 319, Alabama): would cause havoc, maybe not the perfect size for DE, but strong enough to play any DL spot. NFL.com: Possesses the athleticism and explosiveness to be consistently disruptive against the run and pass. Hands that don’t stop, sheds blockers quickly, and frequently uses the swim move to get to the quarterback. Also has great power to push the pocket and stand his ground adequately when run at.
  2. AJ Green (WR, 6-04, 211, Georgia): smooth, gifted WR, who would add a large outside target currently missing from Pats WR corps. NFL.com: Has the ideal length, refined route-running skills, hands, and big-play ability to become one of the league’s top players at the position. Displays tremendous acceleration and fluidity for a taller player.
  3. Cameron Jordan (DL, 6-04, 287, Cal): has experience in 34, interior pass rush presence. Not ideal Pats DE, but versatility would make him useful. NFL.com:  Really a good fit for any team that stresses gap integrity. Has good strength at the point of attack, plays with sound positioning, locates the ball carrier, gets off blocks and uses his good quickness and agility against the run. Not a big-time pass rushing talent by any means, but still has some good power moves.
  4. JJ Watt (DE, 6-05, 290, Wisconsin), big, athletic five technique with outstanding work ethic. Arguably the cleanest Pats prospect in draft. NFL.com: A hard-working, intelligent, relentless player. Uses his hands extremely well to get off blocks both rushing the passer and against the run. Doesn’t possesses great initial quickness but closes hard and fast on the quarterback and has enough straight-lined speed to pursue from the backside.
  5. Julio Jones (WR, 6-03, 220, Alabama): physical, intimidating presence at WR, game changer. NFL.com: Vertical threat due to his height, strength, leaping ability, and speed. Generates big plays after the catch on screens and crossing patterns because of his physicality as a runner. Flashes outstanding hands and ball skills.
  6. Robert Quinn (OLB, 6-04, 265, UNC): not as athletic as some thought, but could transition to OLB, bring some athleticism/pass rush. NFL.com: He has an excellent first step and the burst to consistently get around the edge. He is a relentless pass rusher that will only improve once he develops an array of counter moves. He lacks the bulk to hold stout against the running game and can get overwhelmed by bigger blockers.
  7. Gabe Carimi (LT/RT, 6-07, 314, Wisconsin): will need to get stronger but projects to either tackle spot, nasty playing temperament.NFL.com: His non-stop motor, coupled with his ideal size, make him a terror in the running game and he has enough athleticism to hold his own in pass protection.
  8. Danny Watkins (G/C, 6-03, 310, Baylor): overaged, but could step in and play at either guard position. Nasty playing temperament. NFL.com: He plays with terrific balance and has the foot quickness to hold in pass protection. Despite his limited football experience, he engages very well with his hands and maintains a strong position.
  9. Anthony Costonzo (LT/RT, 6-07, 311, Boston College): need to improve strength versus power, but could develop and start on either side. NFL.com: Would be a good fit in a zone-blocking scheme or on a club that loves the screen game. Will probably never be a favorable matchup when facing bigger, more powerful NFL defensive lineman.
  10. Mark Ingram (RB, 5-09, 215, Alabama):  great instincts and quickness for the game, would fit in well with current stable. Late first round steal. NFL.com: Ingram projects as an every-down back who can make an impact on the ground and in the passing game. One of the most polished running back prospects in recent memory. Has rare natural running sense in terms of vision and patience.
  11. Aaron Williams (DB, 6-01, 204, Texas): big, physical corner would instantly add presence at nickel corner. NFL.com: Has experience lining up over the slot and maintains proper position to take away the easy crossing routes. When the ball is in the air, he has a great closing burst and the superb hands to make plays even on errant throws. He is aggressive in run support.
  12. Nate Solder (OT, 6-08, 319, Colorado): Vollmer clone, athletic, will need time in Dante U. NFL.com: Very sound in pass protection, not as susceptible to the bull rush as you might think given his leaner build, just needs to continue to develop his game against complete pass rushers with a vast array of skills and moves.
  13. Ryan Kerrigan (OLB, 6-04, 267, Purdue): relentless motor, better athlete than he’s given credit for. Has the size to play OLB for Pats. NFL.com – Explodes off the line and plays with sound leverage to get under offensive tackles. Persistent pass rusher with great closing burst that has a knack for making strip sacks. Reads quickly and has a strong lower half which makes him stout against the run. Very productive.
  14. Mike Pouncey (G/C, 6-05, 303, Florida): projects to guard, struggled with shotgun snapping at time. Not as good as twin Maurkice. NFL.com: He has outstanding football IQ and the ability to become a pro-bowl starter at guard or center.
  15. Clint Boling (G/C, 6-05, 308, Georgia): versatile, interior lineman, who plays hard and has experience against top competition. Worker. NFL.com: A savvy, maximum-effort guy who could find a home with a franchise that values technique and mobility up front above pure strength. Has great awareness and understands the finer points of line play.
  16. Aldon Smith (OLB, 6-04, 263, Missouri): raw, but potential is there, would need time, wonder if he has the FBI to fit in New England. NFL.com: He’s a fluid, natural pass rusher who overcomes lack of excellent get-off with terrific hand usage, elite lateral-mobility, very good closing speed, and a strong desire to get to the quarterback.
  17. Jabaal Sheard (OLB, 6-04, 260, Pitt): quick to diagnose, variety of pass rush moves. Team leader despite one incident. NFL.com: Sheard is long and thickly built. Powerful bull rusher that has a vast repertoire of counter moves and uses his long arms to bat down passes. Strong kid that delivers a powerful punch, sheds effectively and quickly locates the ball. High motor player that makes plays on the backside. Very productive.
  18. Cameron Heyward (DL, 6-05, 294, Ohio State): looks the part, but possibly the most polarizing prospect in the draft. NFL.com: He is a powerful athlete at the point of attack that can eat up blocks in the running game and uses heavy active hands to shed quickly. He possesses a less than ideal burst, but is a relentless pass rusher that gets more sacks than he should.
  19. Derek Sherrod (G/T, 6-05, 321, Mississippi State): versatile, played tackle, but projects to guard. NFL.com: Nice blend of length and good feet, he can slide laterally with pass rushers and push them by the launch point but struggles to anchor against the bull rush.
  20. Brandon Harris (DB, 5-10, 191, Miami): smooth, will develop into starting cb. NFL.com: Strong kid with a tireless work ethic and he should be a mid-to-late first round pick. Harris is a true gamer that is at his best when the lights are on and he has the tools to become a starting cornerback at the next level. He excels in man coverage, as he is explosive with an elite closing burst and he has very fluid hips to maintain speed in transition.
  21. Muhammad Wilkerson (DL, 6-04, 315, Temple): has the size/anchor strength for DE, also has some interior pass rush ability. NFL.com: Ideal size, excellent shedding ability and the athleticism to pursue from the backside and rush the passer. Jolts offensive lineman at the point of attack, can beat the double team, finds the football and makes plays against the run.
  22. Ryan Williams (RB, 5-09, 212, Virginia Tech): violent natural runner, hampered by injuries in 2010. NFL.com: Has the vision, toughness, burst, and lateral-mobility necessary to move the chains and make some big plays. However, he must do a better job holding onto the football and improve his ability to consistently contribute on third downs.
  23. Brooks Reed (OLB, 6-03, 263, Arizona): fastest 10-yard split at combine, explosive, smart pass rusher, excellent spin move. Raw but has intangibles. NFL.com: Gets to the quarterback with a variety of moves and a relentless motor. Uses his hands really well to maintain gap integrity and disengage from blockers against the run. Lack of size, his all-out playing style, and minor injury history pose some questions about his durability.
  24. Rahim Moore (FS, 6-00, 202, UCLA): ballhawking free safety, could fill potential need after 2010. NFL.com: True difference maker at the safety position, and he projects to be an immediate starter at the next level. He is extremely rangy with the deep speed to hold up in cover-3, and he has a great closing burst when the ball is in the air.
  25. Rodney Hudson (C/G, 6-02, 299, Florida State): bit undersized for guard but versatile and could be eventual Koppen replacement. Well-rounded, polished skill set. NFL.com: Should be an immediate starter at guard or center and could make a few Pro Bowls down the line. He can handle power or speed pass rushers with his outstanding balance, flexibility and wide base.

For 50 more Patriots-only prospects click here.

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The guys from National Football Post break down the Patriots draft picks. They nail it with Jordan and Watkins, but then… AYERS!!! UGH… But after that Ryan Williams is a good selection and a no-brainer if he’s there at 60. As for the great quarterback debate, I think the they’ll look at one in the 5th round or later. They’ve had great success later and after the draft with QBs. Do you really take someone now higher than you drafted Brady? I say no way.

(Source: http://www.csnne.com/)

https://www.patspropaganda.com/the-guys-from-national-football-post-break-down/

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There’s a team in the draft that has a deal on the table – I’m guessing New England (surprise!) – with a team trying to come back into the first round. The deal will net the team dealing the first-rounder the following: a second-round pick in 2011 and a first-round pick in 2012. The deal, I hear, is contingent on the player the trade-up team wants still being there. Could it be Tennessee trading into the bottom of the first round, at 28, to get Jake Locker or Andy Dalton? Stay tuned.

New England, points out ESPNBoston’s Mike Reiss, has only five draft picks in 2012. (The Patriots own their first- through fifth-rounders; the six went to Philly last year as part of a deal for linebacker Tracy White, the seven to the Chiefs for safety Jarrad Page.) That makes deals for future picks eminently logical this year, bordering on certain. The Patriots could use, say, Mike Pouncey or Cameron Jordan with their 17th pick in the first round, or leverage that pick by moving down a few spots, then deal the 28th altogether.

Peter King

If the Pats can get both a pick in the 35-50 range this year and a first rounder next year for their 28th pick it’s the no-brainer to end all no-brainers.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/theres-a-team-in-the-draft-that-has-a-deal-on-the/