draft

We’ve already jumped into the draft research with much greater detail and awareness this year than we have in the past three seasons of draft blogging. So as we gain more and more knowledge of the prospects we’ll regroup from time to time with some quick hit thoughts as to how things are shaping up from a Patriots perspective.

On 5-techniques and OLBs in Round One

My biggest impression of this draft is that the Patriots needs stack up extremely well with the players that should be available when they’re slated to pick. This is a great class of 5-technique defensive ends, OLB conversion projects, and tough/versatile O-linemen, otherwise known as the three biggest areas the Pats need an infusion of talent.

Right now, based on value, I’d say that at 17 we’re looking first at the available five techniques like Cameron Jordan, JJ Watt, even Marcel Dareus if he were to fall. Right now I lean toward Jordan because he looks like he’d be a three down lineman for the Pats at RDE, an area of definite need. Big enough to stop the run, he could also shift inside and generate pressure on passing downs. He could essentially take Brandon Deaderick and Myron Pryor out of the equation in one pick.

Watt might be a little bigger, a little better against the run, but he’d probably be off the field on third down at least early on. Even with Watt I still think you’re getting good value, even if it’s not as immediate as it might be with Jordan, who also played in a 3-4 at Cal.

Taking an OLB conversion project at 17 seems a lot more risky to me. While Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith, and Akeen Ayers might be the sexy pass rush pick, there are quite a few 2nd/3rd round guys that have similar potential. 

Not to say if BB didn’t think one of them were special that he shouldn’t pounce at 17. But all of them have some question marks; be it off the field, how athletic they are in space, or if they’ll be able to anchor against the run.

If they do go with one of those OLBs at 17 there would still be some decent five-techniques available at 28 or 33 like Cameron Heyward or Mo Wilkerson, but from a value standpoint I lean that DE first is the way to go, but not by much.

Offensive Linemen

As far as tackles go, there are some big, strong prospects who would likely need time to develop. This could be good for the Pats, especially if they re-sign Matt Light and have some time to develop a prospect. That’s one advantage of having a lot of picks, you can select players who might need a little more seasoning before they’ll be ready to play.

The interior linemen look a lot more NFL-ready, and there’s a good collection of guys with that Patriots prerequisite mean streak. When you look at the depth of this years draft, especially early on, the Patriots should have a chance to get a solid offensive linemen in the second round who should project to be a long term answer.

33rd pick will almost absolutely be traded

Prepare yourself now. After Thursday night we’ll have 1-2 new stud draft picks and our choice of any number of talented guys remaining with the #1 overall pick on day two. 

Don’t underestimate the value of this pick. All teams will have a chance to reset their board, and there will be no team with more power than the Patriots on Thursday night.

This is why I fully expect them to trade it, because someone will certainly be willing to overpay for it. There’s a big hole between the 33rd pick and the 60th picks the Patriots currently have. The 33rd could fetch a 2011 pick in the late 30s or 40s, as well as a high (perhaps even first round) pick in 2012.

If the Pats are able to get two quality impact players on day one, they might not mind moving down a bit from 33, while adding yet another future high draft pick. Of course there could be a prime target still available after day one and BB could just choose to make the pick. But I highly doubt it.

Could they really take another cornerback?

With the return of Leigh Bodden it might look like the Pats are well stocked at corner but in my research I’m focusing specifically on guys who can play in the slot. Common sense might project Kyle Arrington over Jonathan Wilhite at nickel, but I don’t think it’s a given that he’s a perfect fit inside though he has the physicality and quickness needed.

Wilhite was better in 2010 but he still hasn’t proven he’s an impact slot defender. So if the Patriots do draft a corner it would likely be someone who is good on the line, able to fight through blocks, especially quick, and has some blitzing potential.

If a corner could project to a ball hawking free safety who could replace Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders in 2012, he could also be considered.  Especially in a year that is really weak for safeties. A player like Prince Amukamara is versatile and could be a player in that mold.

Conclusion

While it’s easy to get overwhelmed wondering what the Patriots will do, the undeniable fact is that they look primed to improve at multiple positions of need. And it won’t be done by overspending on aging free agents, it will be done by hand picking young players who will be long-term bricks in the foundation of another dynasty.

We’re still more than two months away from the draft and already we’ve been getting a lot of questions and seeing a lot of speculation if this is the year the Patriots finally draft up for once.

We’re all familiar with the Patriots passion for trading down. It’s to the point now where you just hold your breath when they’re on the clock, and feel a slight sense of shock when they actually do take a player.

With six picks in the first three rounds, some very specific needs for impact playmakers that usually only come at the top of the draft, along with the potential for a rookie salary cap if the new CBA is done in time, it seems like the factors could be there for this to be the year the Pats move up in the first round.

But the question is who, and how far could the Pats jump based on their picks. 

First let’s look at what ammo they have. In the first three rounds the Patriots have the following picks:

• 17
• 28
• 33
• 60
• 74
• 92

By combining the 17th overall pick with each of the others the Patriots could jump (according to the Draft value chart) to: 6th, 7th, 11th, 13th, or 15th. So really after the 5th pick is made they could possibly be in play to jump up at any point.

But is there a player that high that would warrant such a move? Here are three possible candidates in my eyes (with National Football Post’s commentary):

Cameron Jordan: Cal (6-4, 287)

Can hold the point both inside and out, but it’s his ability to rush the passer that makes him tops in this group.

Marcell Dareus: Alabama (6-3, 309)

A naturally powerful lineman with a good anchor and knows how to fend off blocks. Looks like a very solid starting 5-tecnique at the next level.

Von Miller: Texas A&M (6-3, 237)

Lacks great size, but is simply the most natural pass rusher in this year’s draft.

Now the appearance of Von Miller might surprise some people given the fact that on paper he’s just too small to play outside linebacker in the Patriots scheme. There will be another blog coming on this shortly.

Some have asked if a receiver like AJ Green might be the target of a trade-up but I think given that it’s not a truly pressing area of need, coupled with what happened last time they traded up for a WR (The Chad Jackson), this is probably a long shot.

What will make this most interesting is if the rookie cap is installed before the draft. This would of course depend on the CBA getting done which could be a long shot. But if the financial risk is removed from the top-10 picks, the value of having enough picks to trade up will sky rocket. 

Ideally, if you’re only a couple players away like the Patriots are, having a top-10 pick is where you want to be. If you’re multiple players away you’re going to want multiple second and third round picks to build up the necessary depth for your team.

While the Patriots drafting philosophy and evaluation will always remain a great mystery to those of us on the outside, this is one year where we could see the trend of trading down and accumulating picks altered.

But if they don’t trade up I am pretty much willing to guarantee that someone will give them an offer for the 33rd pick late Thursday night that they will not be able to refuse.

We’ve obviously been using the last few weeks to slowly get up to speed on the 2011 draft. That’s the great thing for someone like me who doesn’t follow college football, as soon as the Patriots season ends there’s a whole world of knowledge to be uncovered. So it definitely helps getting over the end of football.

Our goal this year is to end up with a list of about fifty prospects that fit the Patriots scheme and personnel requirements and then find out how many of their actual picks were on that list. So as we’ve started there have been some really encouraging things that we’ve uncovered.

First, if you had to list the Patriots draft needs (not that they necessarily draft for need) they’d probably look something like:

• OLB – tall, heavy, run stopping/pass rushing type
• DE – big, hold your ground, shift inside and rush the passer type
• RB – big, physical type to compliment Woody/Benny
• WR – big, physical type to compliment smaller receivers
• G/C – big, physical, Logan Mankins-type
• FS – intelligent, ball-hawking type

So the good news, there are a lot of these players that fit what the Pats need, except for maybe the FS which is probably the least pressing of these needs.

There are at least 3 first round graded defensive ends that look like 3-4 types. There are 7 of the top 11 WRs that are 6’ 1" or bigger, and there are quite a few large running backs as well. There are at least two tough, versatile interior OL that are projected to go mid-late first round.

The OLBs remain the toughest to project, but on paper there appear to be at least a couple that could have some Pats potential.

It is pretty much guaranteed that an elite player right in the wheelhouse of Pats’ needs is going to fall to 17. It might not be the sexy pass rusher most are hoping for, but it’s clear the Pats are in prime position to draft impact players at positions of need.

As always, they have the ammunition to move up the board if they want to. It looks like this draft could make as much of an impact as the 2010 class did and that is downright scary.

Check out our draft page to see where we’re at with our research. Questions and comments are welcome!