These Thursday night games sneak up on you fast, especially after my whirlwind trip to the Pats-Jets game last weekend. If the Pats can just get through this one with a win they’ll get their final small break before the drive to the playoffs really begins. These couple extra days of rest can make a big difference, especially for guys like Jabaal Sheard
and Marcus Cannon
who we’ll definitely need down the stretch.
This is the Dolphins team everyone thought we’d see in 2015. Yes, they started off terrible but since Dan Campbell took over during their bye week they look like a new team.
The most interesting part of this game to me is the coaching matchup. It’s a short week. It might be a little wet out. Guys are still sore. For a coach like Belichick, he knows how to handle this. But Campbell is getting his first taste of it and after ramping up the physicality in practice, the Dolphins won’t be hitting this week.
But it’s more than just game prep, it’s about in-game adjustments. These new Dolphins want a street fight, which the Patriots are more than capable of playing, but what happens when the Dolphins have to adjust to the new twists the Patriots will throw at them? Will Campbell and his staff know the answers and be able to implement them? Because playing the Patriots puts as much pressure on a coaching staff as it does the opposing players.
Campbell has been praised for simplifying the Dolphins approach on both sides of the ball, so it seems a stretch to think he has any major curveballs up his sleeve for the Patriots. More likely, Belichick knows exactly what they’re doing and what is needed to stop it.
It’s a big opportunity for the Pats to move to 7-0 overall, 3-0 in the division and essentially put a stranglehold on the division crown.
Here’s the gameplan…
Offensive Gameplan
I’ve really enjoyed writing the offensive gameplans this year because they’re really quite simple. Do what you do, Patriots, because no one has stopped it consistently yet.
Obviously having Dion Lewis back would be a huge bonus. I’m surprised that no one really seems to mention how useful he would’ve been against the Jets. He is the lead back now for the Scalpel (fka Dink and Dunk) as the Patriots will spread out the defense, see how they want to play and then go to work exploiting the matchups that favor them.
There aren’t many defenses out there that can match up with the Dion Lewis we saw the first four games of the season and the Dolphins certainly aren’t one.
I do have some concerns about the lessened athleticism at the tackle spots. Neither Vollmer nor Fleming move particularly well, but both are strong once they get their hands on rushers. Still, Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon are going to make some plays here. They just can’t be allowed to unravel the gameplan because both tackles need help.
The Dolphins are third in DVOA covering tight ends, so that adds some intrigue to a team’s latest attempt to slow down Rob Gronkowski.
But perhaps the biggest area I’m curious about is once the Pats feel the defense is loosened up enough to put LeGarrette Blount in. If there’s one statistical area Miami has been light years better at with Campbell it’s run defense. Before Campbell they were giving up 160.6 rushing yards-per-game. In the last two games they’ve give up 134 total.
Their defense is playing up to their potential now. Ndamukong Suh and safety Reshad Jones looked outstanding against the Texans and are just the kind of players who, on the right night, can give the Patriots problems.
The Dolphins are better now, but it’s still a huge task to beat the Patriots in Foxborough, especially on a short week. If the Dolphins defense wins the physical battle in the trenches, they could pull off the upset. The Patriots must keep the Dolphins on their heels and hopefully in their own heads trying to adjust to what twists the Pats are throwing at them.
Defensive Gameplan
Ryan Tannehill was in the zone last week against the Texans. Every pass he calmly threw was perfectly placed, hitting his receivers in stride and allowing them to turn short catches into long runs.
Can Tannehill be that good week in and week out? I’m not convinced of that, but he is certainly the second-best quarterback in the AFC East right now and could enter the conversation as one of the brightest rising QBs in the league if he can continue to play with that kind of effortless accuracy.
But the Patriots have a way of making opposing offenses play left-handed so to speak. The throws that Tannehill was making last week had to make Belichick smile, because in many ways it was a lot like what Brady and the Patriots offense do. Find the right matchup, get the ball out on time and let the playmakers go to work.
So this means the defense will need a gameplan like the ones we usually see against our offense – taking away the short passing game. Forcing Tannehill to hold the ball and make the deeper throws. Whether this is done with playing tight man coverage like the Pats did against Fitzpatrick last week, or loading up the short zones is something I’m interested to see.
But perhaps more important is tackling. That sounds simple, but that’s really what killed a Texans team who put together what might be the worst half of football I’ve seen in a long time last week. So much of the Dolphins’ damage was done after multiple missed tackles, and on a short week of rest with guys still banged up, there might be less desire to get down and dirty when it comes to tackling.
Tannehill is making the tough throws right now, and unless the Pats’ pass rush wakes up after their slumber against the Jets, it’s hard to see them totally taking him off his game. So limiting the yards-after-catch is vital with good, sound tackling. When you’re playing on short rest the fundamentals can be the first things to suffer, that can’t happen against Miami.
But the other problem is Lamar Miller who has 288 yards rushing in his last two games. The Patriots proved that they could stop the run when they wanted to last week against the Jets (and spare me the “Ivory was hurt” line, there was nothing there for him even if he was healthy) but can they commit seven or eight to the box with the way Tannehill is throwing the ball? That leaves less margin for error on tackling and puts a lot of pressure on Devin McCourty on the back end.
It will be an interesting balance for the Patriots defense this week, but this is a very similar passing offense to the one they see every day.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Tackle – I mentioned this before and I’m mentioning it again because I really think the Patriots defense will be as good as they tackle in this one. If Dolphins receivers are catching quick passes, breaking tackles and getting big gains, the Patriots could lose. Completions will happen, but if the receivers are wrapped up and put down right at the catch, like the Pats defense usually does, it will force Tannehill to continue to execute and I don’t think he has the patience that Brady does yet. That will lead to mistakes and incompletions.
2. Stop Run in Sub – Last week the Pats focused their attention on stopping Chris Ivory with a heavy box, but this week the Dolphins passing offense scares me more than the Jets’ did because the excel in an area that always gives the Patriots defense trouble. That means there will be more need to stop the run with the sub defense, an area that often gets pummeled when the Patriots lose games. Alan Branch has been getting better and better, as has rookie Malcolm Brown. They’ll be big keys along with Dominique Easley on those 2nd and 3rd downs with intermediate yardage to go.
3. Weather the Dolphins DL Storm: The Dolphins defensive line is too good not to make some plays in this one, but the Patriots must make sure those plays are isolated and don’t compound upon each other. They’ve done a good job dealing with Suh in the past, but he’s never been paired with edge rushers like Wake and Vernon. For the second week in a row the Pats face a DL specifically built to attack them. The quick passing game can mitigate a lot of the DL’s potential impact, but staying focused through the ups-and-downs will be critical.
4. Curveballs: Belichick must throw some curveballs at Dan Campbell and see how he adjusts. The Dolphins want this to be a street fight. They don’t want to be forced to think and adjust on the fly. That will put them into a place where they can exposed and beaten. So giving them things they haven’t seen before will be the best route to get them there.
5. Win: I don’t want to say this game is effectively for the AFC East division title, but it’s pretty close. The Pats won’t see the Jets or Dolphins again until the end of the season. That means they’d be one home win over Buffalo away from being 4-0 in the division and that would probably lock things up. But we can’t get too far ahead of ourselves. A win and then getting a couple days off would be just what the Patriots need right now. They need to cut loose with one more good performance and then they can regroup and put all their focus into the late-season surge to the playoffs.
Prediction: Patriots 30, Dolphins 20
