PatsPropaganda

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dion lewis

Belichick Hoping for Ground Balance

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For whatever reason Bill Belichick always seems to open up a bit more than usual when talking with Pat Kirwan on Sirius XM Radio and Monday’s show was no exception. Kirwan, who poked his head into then Ninkovich retirement presser, has one of then best books learning how to watch football — Take Your Eye Off The Ball.

This quote stood out to me, as Belichick mentioned they were looking for more balance out of their backfield.

“Hopefully we will be a little bit less of a Blount on first down [and] second-and-short, Lewis on second down, White on third down — that type of [set-up],” Belichick said on SiriusXM NFL Radio.

“Part of that for us was getting our best player to do what he does best type of thing. Hopefully, this year, we’ll have a little more balance between the running game and passing game. Again, LG was primarily a runner. He didn’t have a lot of receiving production. The reverse is true of James White. So hopefully with our backs this year we’ll have a little more balance and be a little less predictable from that spot.”

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Patriots Positional Preview: Running Backs

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Today we’re taking a look at the Patriots’ running back corps, one of the most intriguing positions on the roster.

With the departure of LeGarrette Blount, who set a team record with 18 rushing touchdowns, things will look a little different in 2017, but the approach should remain the same. The biggest question is of course, who takes those short yardage carries, especially on the goalline where 11 of Blount’s TDs came from just one yard out.

The favorite to be the early down/early game pounder is Mike Gillislee, a restricted free agent the Pats signed away from the Bills and whose one-cut, hard running style is a perfect fit for what the Pats need. But free agent Rex Burkhead, who saw just 13 carries in his first three seasons with the Bengals before getting his shot in 2016 and putting up 4.6 yards-per-attempt, has size and versatility to take some of those carries as well.

As Pro Football Talk pointed out, Gillislee and Burkhead are football analytics all-stars.

Analytics website FootballOutsiders.com ranked Gillislee as the most efficient running back in the NFL last year, and Burkhead as No. 2. Analytics website NumberFire also had Gillislee first and Burkhead second. Analyst Warren Sharp’s metrics had Gillislee first and Burkhead second in success rate, and Burkhead first and Gillislee second in the fewest “missed yards per attempt,” or how close they came to being successful on the plays that weren’t quite good enough to quality as successful.

No matter how the replacing of Blount shakes out, the Patriots have the entire spectrum covered at running back. James White put up an MVP-caliber performance in the Super Bowl, while Dion Lewis, now a full year removed from tearing his ACL, could return to the electric explosion he showed prominently in early 2015.

With battering ram James Devlin leading the way, and a couple young potential practice squad members, there’s nothing this group lacks.

Let’s take a closer look at each.

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Pats Posits: New Numbers, Butler to Slot? Lewis and more…

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Things might start to get a little slow here on the blog in the next few weeks due to my impending move back to Boston, especially in the first two weeks of June. Between packing up my entire house to be shipped across the country and this quiet portion of the NFL offseason, I just can’t bring myself to concoct fluff pieces just in the name of posting new content.

You know, random nebulous rankings, or barely-Patriots-related off field stuff like “Guess what Tom Brady posted on Instagram? (Don’t just go to his Instagram, read my post with his Instagram post embedded in it for maximum insight!)” or the like.

As I always say, this is a football blog and there’s not a whole lot of real football stuff going on so I’m not going to force it. I will drop my third annual season preview book with blurbs about all 90 Patriots training camp players, depth charts, statistical analysis and game-by-game breakdown plus plenty more by June 1st, when I’m due to hit the road and drive across this wonderful country, including a stop at the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Until then here’s some Pats Posits on things I’ve been kicking around.

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Pats Posits: We’re Back in the AFCCG!

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The Patriots overcame three giveaways, pulling away late to close out the Houston Texans 34-16 in the AFC Divisional round, just as american football betting thought they would. The Pats now await the winner of the Steelers and Chiefs as they head to their record sixth-straight AFC Championship game.

The Patriots struggled to find a rhythm on offense, but Dion Lewis was a standout, setting an NFL Playoff record by scoring touchdowns rushing, receiving and on a kickoff return. The Patriots have been managing Lewis since the summer with this moment in mind. Now, when it all counted most, Lewis was the go-to playmaker out of the backfield.

The defense was every bit as suffocating as we expected it to be against an impotent Houston offense, holding the slim Patriots lead throughout the game and coming up with three interceptions of Brock Osweiler. Logan Ryan had the game of his career, recording three passes defensed, an interception, a sack, a QB hit, a tackle-for-loss and seven tackles.

There’s plenty to dissect, but most importantly, the Patriots are one game away from the Super Bowl.

More on it all in the Posits…

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Patriots Tuesday 10 Pack

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Plenty to kick around this week as the hardest part of the Patriots’ schedule is over and we have a near-complete picture of who the 2016 team is. Once again they’re playing their best football in December and must survive two games before turning all their attention to the playoffs.

Do the Patriots have a fatal flaw? Only if the early season defense returns and they stop getting takeaways, red zone and third down stops. Offensively, it’s no longer all Gronk and Edelman. You have to stop the run, and while they will stay dedicated to pounding it up the middle, their stable of backs are just as capable in the passing game.

And as I mentioned in the Posits, all their receivers can play each receiver position. Then there’s Bennett, who might not be as dominant as Gronk, but is close to being as dangerous, especially when teams get caught up figuring out where the receivers and backs are lining up.

The fact that their special teams are playing dominant football is only the icing on the unstoppability cake.

Put them all together and there’s no question it’s Super Bowl or bust once again.

Here’s a 10 pack of thoughts…

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 11 at San Francisco 49ers

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Brady returns home.

The Patriots take a much-needed trip to the west coast this weekend to face the 1-8 San Francisco 49ers, and your faithful Minister of PatsPropaganda will be there to cheer them on.

In many ways I think this is just what the team needs, and not just because they’ll get a full dose of Duss cheering. They’re coming off a disappointing loss to a great team, but coming off a bye week where everyone went their separate ways they looked like a team that could use a little time to bond. They’ll leave on Friday and get some extra time together, which will hopefully translate in a similar way to their 2014 trip to San Diego when they traveled straight from a loss to Green Bay.

The 49ers, despite their record, should give the Patriots plenty of problems. Well, with the way the defense has been playing just about any team would give them problems. Still, the Patriots defense is far better than they looked against the Seahawks, and here’s hoping a road trip will help them hit the reset button and start playing like they should. All the media attention that’s been focused on them should certainly help with motivation.

Offensively, the Pats will be more than fine. They likely won’t have Rob Gronkowski, but they’ve never been more prepared to handle a week without Gronk than they are now with Martellus Bennett. Throw in a potential debut of Dion Lewis and there’s plenty of reasons to be excited beyond Tom Brady and Julian Edelman’s first game in their hometown.

What the Pats need to do to get back on track with a win over the 49ers in the gameplan!

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Examining Dion Lewis’s Role in the Patriots Offense

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With reports that the Patriots are holding out hope that Dion Lewis will be able to return in a limited fashion this Sunday against Seattle, I thought I would examine his role in the offense last season and the difference in usage between Lewis and his replacement, James White. The Patriots have until next Thursday to take Lewis off the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list in order for him to be able to play at all this season.

In Lewis’s absence, James White has done a more than admirable job filling in as the receiving back. Last season, in nine games without Lewis, White had 40 catches for 410 yards, good for 10.3 yards per catch, and added four touchdowns through the air. While Lewis had nine more catches in two fewer games, White’s average yards per catch was just a half yard behind Lewis’s 10.8 mark. He even had Pro Football Focus’s third-best receiving grade by running backs last season, trailing only former Patriot Danny Woodhead and the Lions Theo Riddick.

While White’s numbers in the running game were far worse than Lewis’s (22 carries for just 56 yards last season, and averaged a paltry 2.5 yard per carry following Lewis’s injury), he was not really asked to fill the void Lewis’s injury left in the running game (as evident by the fact he averaged only 2.4 carries a game). White is a back who thrives in one area, the passing game, but is unable to shoulder the type of load Lewis was able to take on because Lewis is simply the more well-rounded back with a higher talent level. White is tremendous at what he is asked to do, and remains near the top of PFF’s receiving grades for running backs (he ranks 3rd again this season), but Lewis still has a far greater influence on the offense as a whole.

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