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10 notes on the Patriots/Broncos first tilt

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Like most Pats bloggers and writers I re-watched the Patriots and Broncos week fifteen game  to try and glean some insight into what things might stay the same and what things might be different this time around with everything on the line. My notes below…

  1. A lot was made after the game (especially by me) how the switch to a 3-4 front on the fly was the reason for the Patriots defense turning it around after looking like swiss cheese early on. I don’t stand by this any more. The only real difference was turnovers and better tackling.
  2. Yes, the Patriots looked better after the fourth drive, but the difference was not the scheme, it was that the Patriots built a lead and that affected how the Broncos had to play.
  3. The Broncos still got a number of big yards on the ground and through the air after the Pats went to the 3-4.
  4. I expect the Pats to go back to the normal 4-3 base they’ve used this year to start to the game. If they can just tackle and keep contain they won’t have to  switch it up to the 3-4 that they have less experience in.
  5. HUGE KEY PATRIOT #1 = Rob Ninkovich. Ninkpoop had one of his worst games in Denver, that cannot happen again. I expect him to play with something to prove this time around. His missed tackles were embarrassing and despite coming away with a sack at the end, I still expect Ninkovich would like to make up for his performance early.
  6. HUGE KEY PATRIOT #2 = Brandon Spikes. It’s elementary football that you want your biggest meanest middle linebacker when you’re playing the league’s best rushing team. The fact that Spikes played with and practiced against Tebow is just an added bonus. I know Spikes had been out a while, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays a ton this weekend.
  7. HUGE KEY PATRIOT #3 = Patrick Chung. Chung’s tackling and aggressiveness will add a whole new dimension to the Patriots defense that the Broncos did not see last time. And the fact that he’s the only drafted safety on the roster won’t hurt either.
  8. Say what you will about the “bend don’t break” but I don’t think we’ll see the Patriots give up the number of long bombs the Steelers. Of course Patriots fans know that long bombs completed on the Steelers in the playoffs are pretty much how they do it.
  9. The Pats couldn’t get much going on the ground early on vs. the Broncos with Benjarvus Green-Ellis struggling mightily to find any running holes. Once the Pats switched it up with some Woodhead and Ridley things started to open up. By the second half the Pats were having good success on the ground, with Law Firm leading the way.
  10. I expect this game to be reminiscent of the 05, 06, 07 divisional games with the Pats rolling. It’s just a perfect storm between the re-match, the Broncos short week, McDaniels, and the lack of a Pats playoff win since January 2008. The signs are pointing to a big Pats victory to me.

Patriots to face Broncos in AFC Divisional game

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Tim Tebow and the Broncos pulled off an overtime upset of the Steelers and will now travel to New England on a quick turnaround for a Saturday night tilt.

The most obvious storyline is that Josh McDaniels will now face the quarterback he drafted just two short seasons ago. Having McDaniels in the fold this time around should give the Patriots a little more insight into their personnel, but I don’t think it provides any overwhelming new advantage.

The Pats saw the Broncos firsthand and know what they can do, while also having a sense of how they might attack the Patriots defense. The systems and philosophies have changed since McDaniels was there, but he does know Tebow and a lot of the young personnel there. That can help, but as always it will come down to execution.

Defensively, the first question that comes to mind is do the Patriots open in the 3-4 defense that helped them shut down the Broncos after they were getting gashed early. Or will they go with the heavy four man front we’ve seen since Andre Carter went down in Ellis-Wilfork-Love-Deaderick.

Having Brandon Spikes and Patrick Chung back in the mix this time should be biggest new advantage that either team has, and with McDaniels’ new input the Pats should be strong favorites to end their playoff win drought.

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As predicted…

Thanks to Jeremiah Lucas for the pic!

https://www.patspropaganda.com/as-predicted-thanks-to-jeremiah-lucas-for-the/

Tim about to get Teblown out by Patriots

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You’ll rarely find me making serious predictions or power rankings here on the blog, but this weekend’s Patriots-Broncos game seems like a ripe opportunity to break the trend.

I’m not one of the people who is sick of all the Tebow storylines because I don’t watch Sportscenter. And I’m not going to try and tell you whether or not Tebow is a long term solution for the Broncos. Nor am I going to make any commentary on his faith, though it’s clear he talks the talk and walks the walk in that department.

For me it just comes down to football and I think this is the week Tebow and the his disciples falls back to earth. Let’s lay out the ingredients…

  • A still-angry Tom Brady who has something to prove after how his last pass ended against the Redskins.
  • A Patriots defense that might not be great against the pass, but are excellent in the simple fundamentals and “doing their job”, especially when it comes to staying within the system.
  • An entire Patriots team that has something to prove on the home field of the Broncos moreso than any other home field in the NFL.

Let’s start with Tebow. It doesn’t take a football genius to figure out the secret to ending his current run. Put him in an early hole. Force him to have to abandon the run game and throw the ball to catch up. The golden number is a 17-point lead.

The only possible model for success for the Broncos is what the Browns did last year. Get an early lead. Pound the ball on the ground and keep Brady off the field. Run a couple successful trick plays. Force the Patriots to be one dimensional and allow Elvis Dumerville and Von Miller to pin their ears back and get after Brady.

Where the Patriots can get into trouble defensively is when offenses run multiple shifts, forcing the Pats to communicate and adjust to each one. The Broncos should be able to mimic this Mangini-esque game plan to get the Pats defense on their heels. But with what the Broncos have shown this is one week the Pats should be ready to be attacked as such.

So for the Patriots defense it will be all about discipline. Ideally the Pats would like to mimic what the Bears were successful with for three quarters last week. Play man to man, put eight in the box, and make sure everyone maintains their gap and doesn’t overpursue or fall for the myriad of misdirectional plays the Broncos thrive on. Playing sound fundamental defense

The Broncos have a respectable defense but it’s about to be tested like it hasn’t since the Lions mauled them. In the big picture the Broncos D is a very solid road test for the Patriots to handle. It’s still very possible they’d have to travel to Baltimore, Pittsburgh or Houston should they make the AFC Championship.

I expect a full 60 minutes from New England on both sides of the ball. Their defense has literally been laughed at all week, and the storyline that was second to that was Brady’s endzone interception and the argument that followed.

When I look at all these factors the result seems obvious to me.

Patriots 37, Broncos 10