denver broncos

New England Patriots Gameplan: AFC Championship at Denver Broncos

January 22, 2016 by Mike Dussault

This is the tenth AFC Championship the Patriots have gone to under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but for me this one feels different. I’ve touched a lot upon how many things would come full circle for TB/BB with a win this weekend, and maybe that’s why I’ve been grumpy and had trouble sleeping all week.

To send Manning off into the sunset, along with the disappointing previous playoff losses in Denver, would truly be poetic for the Brady/Belichick Dynasty. What else is really hanging over their head? And what better way to possibly end Manning’s career than the way it started in his first AFC Championship in 2003, losing to the Patriots?

The Pats are favored. They’re a totally different team than the one that had a 21-7 lead in the fourth-quarter before Harper’s Muff opened the door for a Brock Osweiler comeback. And the Broncos have some key pieces back as well, but the biggest focus is of course Peyton Manning. He’s torn my heart out far too many times to write him off, no matter how much of a shell of his former self he is.

Most of the Patriots confidence comes from how the two teams looked in the divisional round. The battered Steelers had little trouble moving the ball in Denver and once again it took a late-game turnover to give the Broncos new life. The Patriots looked healthy and formidable. But this is all about one game, where anything can happen on any given play.

There’s plenty to digest in this one, here’s my gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

Spread ‘em out and light ‘em up. We’re under no false impressions about what makes this offense go: 12/11/87. When those three are in sync the Pats are near-impossible to stop. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be flawlessly clicking for 60 minutes on Sunday and that’s where things get interesting.

When you look at what the Patriots have done in recent history against this Denver defense, it’s hard to think they’ll struggle to move the ball. They’ll have their moments where they sputter, but the biggest key is finishing in the red zone with touchdowns. That’s what got Pittsburgh beat last week.

You wonder if Wade Phillips will juggle some things up, such as putting Talib on Gronk as Greg Bedard suggested. Chris Harris is reportedly a gametime decision and he’s a huge piece to Denver’s secondary. Without him, there will be plenty to attack, especially with Edelman.

But once again the dark horse is James White, who still seems poised for a huge game. I thought that last week as well, and he did chip in a 29 yard catch and run, but had just three targets and one carry.

The scary thing is that it’s all right there for the taking, but the only thing that can stop the Patriots offense is the Patriots. We’ve licked our chops before games like this plenty of times – knowing the defense was there to be had, only to have a fluky early play that changes the course of the game or puts the Patriots on their heels for one reason or another.

So if this game is straightforward, the Pats should in all likelihood win. But if it gets weird – turnovers, strange deflections and bounces (things that have often happened in Denver to the Pats), the Broncos will be sitting and waiting to pounce on any mistake just as they have all season long.

Score early. Score often. And don’t stop scoring until the clock hits zero. If they hit 30 points I don’t think the Broncos can match, but it’s going to take clean and fearless play. That starts with a strong start.

Defensive Gameplan

Hightower and Collins. Those might be the only two guys I care about in this game. If they can suck it up and be effective for 60 minutes, I like the Pats’ chances to shut down the Broncos offense. Or at least hold them under 20 points.

If they’re ineffective or have to leave the game for Jonathan Freeny and Darius Fleming, the door will be wide open for the Broncos to start gashing us.

The defensive game plan isn’t all that different than last week, when the Pats could just focus on the run and the short zones and force the quarterback to hit long passes to have success. The bonus is no one needs to spy Peyton so that puts an extra body in the flat to destroy dump offs and crossers, or blitz. That player is likely Jamie Collins.

It’s strange that this is the exact opposite approach the Pats took against Peyton Manning as recently as last season. Now instead of daring the Broncos to run you’re daring them to pass.

I am okay with the same matchups we saw in pass coverage last time – Ryan on Thomas, Butler on Sanders. I know Ryan has had some struggles against bigger receivers recently, but honestly as long as he doesn’t give up any big gainers to Thomas, the Pats will be okay. He must tackle and not give up the yards-after-catch.

The small but important part are Denver’s third and fourth receivers matching up with Justin Coleman. Coleman was excellent last week against the Chiefs, but a poor performance this week and the Broncos could sneak out a couple big plays that help their cause.

Still I think it’s an eight-man box game, with Chung down low to help snuff out the run game. Having seen the zone blocking scheme once already is a good advantage for the defense, especially rookie Malcom Brown. That might be the only big takeaway from the first matchup.

It’s hard not to think this game will come down to the defense needing a stop as much as every Pats fan would love a stress-free blow out. The Pats got two game-ending interceptions last year on their way to the Super Bowl title and they very well could need one this weekend. But the bigger the lead the bigger the pressure on Peyton Manning to start throwing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pats race out to double digits to see Brock Osweiler make an appearance.

But again, Hightower and Collins are the key. If they’re in, the Broncos will struggle to run and that is the engine of their offense. But what is of most concern is the defense’s ability to continue to stop the run in the fourth quarter when the Denver air starts to play a factor. By that point there must be a significant lead. Because if there isn’t, and Hightower/Collins are running out of steam or not on the field, the momentum could take a serious turn in the Broncos’ favor.

Playing Peyton is not about fooling him. He’s going to know what you’re trying to do. Now, the Pats can show their hand and make Peyton beat them with hard throws. This is why man defense is so vital against him and why the Pats were trounced in 2013 once Talib went down. Reading zones, throwing to open areas, that’s what Manning can still do. But force him to throw into a tight window, where it will be contested, is the perfect thing for this Denver passing offense.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Collins and Hightower: They are the Gronk and Edelman of the defense and with the way the matchup is lining up, they might even be the more important duo when it comes to getting a win this weekend. Both are battling injuries, but if they can suck it up for this game they’ll have two weeks to rest. There’s nothing more important than keeping the Broncos’ run game in check. Collins could be a big factor with his pass rush. Think about it, we want Peyton Manning to throw on us!! Strange days.

2. Brady be Brady: If Brady is on in this game it’s hard to see the Patriots losing. Can’t imagine a 3TD, 0 INT performance where the Broncos magically go toe-to-toe with the Pats’ offense. Now how does Brady get off his game traditionally? By getting away from what he does best. That shouldn’t be a problem this week. There’s nothing to overthink. And unless the Broncos have some special new defensive twists, the Pats will move the ball. This is a legacy game for Brady and Belichick and I hope/expect they’ll both be at their best.

3. Offensive Balance: The Steelers had more success on the ground than we expected last week, and it’s vital that the Pats, in their desire to let Brady be Brady, don’t become one-dimensional. If the Pats can get a lead, they must start to shorten the game to strangle the Broncos chances. That’s why a Steven Jackson-led ground attack in the second half is just what we need. Jackson has shown good burst but just hasn’t found the holes just yet. If the Pats are to get to the Super Bowl Jackson will be vital in finishing off Denver.

4. Tackle: A simple fundamental thing the Patriots usually excel at, as demonstrated against the Chiefs last week. Wrap up and tackle the backs and receivers. Don’t give them YAC. Punish them, especially Thomas and Sanders and their mistakes will only compound. Make them earn every yard. Because no one is convinced this Broncos team can win a tight game that isn’t handed to them with a turnover. They’ve lived on the edge all season long and pulled out more than they lost. The more they’re hit, the more they have to earn, the more I see them deflating from the moment.

5. 60 Minutes: This is always a key to a playoff game. We’ve seen far too many Patriots games that don’t go exactly as expected. Ones that come down to the last play and take everything the Pats got. But we know the Patriots never flinch and are incredibly patient. If only their fans could be as well. There have been plenty of fluky moments over the years in Denver… bad bounces, bad calls, bad decisions. The Pats must keep the hammer down regardless and we know they will. We can’t just expect them to show up and be handed the conference championship. They’re going to have to earn every first down and point.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Broncos 17

Patriots vs. Broncos All 22 Thoughts: Defense Edition

November 6, 2014 by Mike Dussault

There’s nothing more fun that taking an All-22 look at a Bill Belichick defense against Peyton Manning. The Patriots did what they often have done against Manning – make him look mortal with a mix of disguise and pressure.

There wasn’t anything overly exotic or new, but there were some new faces stepping to the forefront in roles we’ve never seen them in before. That bodes well for the versatility of this defense going forward.

Here’s what I saw on the All-22 rewatch…

Jamie Collins was a standout on the first possession for the Broncos, a three-and-out. He came downhill with a strong fill against the run on second down, then ran the crosser stride-for-stride with Emmanuel Sanders and tackled him short of the first down.

The mix-and-match was apparent from the first three plays, most surprising was Browner going inside on Julius Thomas. I didn’t think we would see that but the Patriots declared it was part of the game plan immediately.

On the second possession Vince Wilfork set the tone, exploding into the backfield and blowing up the run. Wilfork is always an X-factor when he has games like this. He looked explosive here.

Brandon Browner threw an arm back and broke up Manning’s third down pass to Demaryius Thomas. That’s what 6’4" corners can do. Pats fans used to having 5’8" corners might be surprised.

The third possession got moving with a crosser to Sanders. Hightower probably would’ve laid him out but got pulled a bit out of position jamming another guy. Pressure could’ve been better.

Really blown away by how involved Chung was in this game. In my gameplan I wondered if he’d take a back seat to Harmon for more coverage ability. Instead Chung was saw plenty of man coverage against a variety of receivers. He’s gotten plenty of attention this week for it.

Seems like this coverage scheme (here in Cover 3) was a big part of the gameplan. You have 2 LBs and 2 DBs forming a four-man zone area, waiting for the crossers to come. It worked well and forced a lot of checkdowns.

Jamie Collins continued to show up in the run game on this drive. He’s getting better at managing his speed to get around tackle but not overpursue. If he keeps improving vs. the run look out.

I thought Arrington would return to prominence in this one to cover Welker, and not only did he, but Chung did too. One of the advantages of having guys who got plenty of reps in practice vs. Welker is they are comfortable covering him.

Still didn’t think Browner’s PI penalty was overt but that’s the NFL today.

Yet Chung getting spun around on the touchdown play because he was held so badly goes unnoticed.

Nink’s interception has gotten plenty of love in the analysis this week and really he almost had one the play before if he had widened out a little more.

Collins hasn’t gotten enough credit on the Nink interception. It was his pressure that forced the throw a bit. It was really the first pressure Manning saw in the game up to this point. That’s something that I wish had been better so far.

On the next possession Manning went to Demaryius on a crosser from the slot as he was manned up by Browner – again, something we haven’t really seen Browner do. But Browner ran with him and made the tackle.

Stopping the run from the nickel defense was so so huge in this one. Everything was clicking on defense (and the Broncos still made some plays, credit to them).

The Pats threatened Double A pressure by Hightower and Collins a lot more than they actually sent it. Here in the second quarter they sent both and it forced a hurried throw that fell incomplete. The defensive gameplan was simple and complex at the same time. The initial looks were almost always the same, but the coverages and blitzers were constantly rotating.

Good coverage by Malcolm Butler, running stride for stride with Emmanual Sanders on third-and-20. Never thought he’d be such a big part in this game.

It’s amazing how hard it is to get pressure on Manning (and Brady too). A defender has to win at the LOS immediately to have any chance, otherwise the ball is already out.

Continue to be impressed with Jamie Collins. If last year’s playoff game against the Colts was his coming out party, this was nearly as impressive. He’s all over the place.

Pressure started to cause problems for Manning at the end of the second half,culminating with Ayers fourth-down sack. Hightower is quite a load coming up the middle for a running back to block.

Ayers sack was part Wilfork walking the left guard into the backfield and good coverage to take away the quick throw. Overall I thought Ayers was okay. Hasn’t blown me away with anything special but was generally solid in the first half and I’ll take that.

SECOND HALF

Check out this look on the first Broncos offensive possession of the second half – now Nink and Ayers are showing interior pressure.

Just a perfect throw and catch on Julius Thomas’ touchdown. Browner might’ve been able to defend it due to his size but Chung was screwed from the moment he lined up on an island with the big tight end.

Even McCourty looked shaken up after hitting Welker on the Browner interception. Welker really should’ve caught it and gotten down.

There was no consistency to who New England was matching up with. The interior guys (Chung/Arrington/Hightower/Collins) all were switched around. I’m kind of left wondering why we only save this stuff for Peyton Manning.

There were some big passing plays on first down, culminating with a 41-yarder to Demaryius Thomas in the fourth quarter, which was really somewhat lucky as Manning just threw is up and it managed to find Thomas through a crowd.

As if this one didn’t already have enough good stuff, here comes a four-down stand inside the ten yard line. Things like this only build a defense’s confidence.

For as bad as this defense has looked at times this year, it was amazing to see them put it all together in this one. Guys were setting the edge, getting off blocks and tackling. When you do those simple things it’s amazing how much better a defense can look.

3 GIFs That Defined Patriots Win Over Broncos

November 4, 2014 by Mike Dussault

A lot of hard choices were made this week when choosing the three GIFs that defined this big win. What about Edelman’s punt return for TD? What about Gronk’s ridiculous catch? What about Ayer’s third down sack?

All of those were impressive plays, and while I think Edelman’s punt return should certainly be in there, I felt these three really were the ones that cemented the game in the Patriots’ favor.

First, we have Ninkovich’s interception which has been broken down all over the internet the last two days. When you look back at the classic Manning vs. Patriots defense games, this interception fits right in. This pick was one of those instant messages that the Patriots were fooling Manning, at least early on, with their coverage schemes. They’d take the lead for good four plays later on a touchdown pass to Edelman.

There’s nothing like extending a lead from 13 points to 20 points just before halftime. Of course, you always need touchdowns vs. Manning, but to pull out a touchdown on third down in the final seconds of the half, was a huge boost to a team that was already rolling. Of course it helps when three defenders follow Gronk, leaving Vereen wide open.

If the Broncos get a touchdown here on their second drive of the second half, things would’ve gotten interesting in a hurry. On their first possession they drive right through the Pats on a six-play, 57-yard touchdown drive. Instead McCourty delivers a knockout blow to Welker’s back and Browner was there to grab the ball as Welker coughed it up. The Pats would score a touchdown on the next play and the blowout was on.

Previous Three GIFs:

October 24, 2014 by Mike Dussault

I’ve been teasing this for a while but now is the time to finally make the grand announcement. We’re having a big tailgate giveaway extravaganza before the Patriots-Broncos game featuring not only yours truly, but two of the best Patriots pundit personalities around – Jerry Thornton and the man, the myth, the legend… Fitzy!

It’s the Patriots Super Secret Tailgate Party!

Where will we be exactly? That’s the secret. All I can tell you is that it will be in a lot close to the stadium. We’ll start giving clues to our location a few hours before game time (watch our twitter feeds and the #PatriotsNRG tag).

We hope that you’ll come find us – not only to prepare for the biggest game of the season with us, but because we’ll have a bunch of awesome stuff to give away courtesy of NRG!

We’ll have tickets to the Pats-Bills game, swag bags, signed memorabilia and even some of our own t-shirts to give away! So watch for the clues, because those who find us first will be rewarded!

What better way to pregame for the latest epic chapter of Brady-Manning than with some of the biggest Patriots fans on the planet.

We hope to see you all there!!

https://www.patspropaganda.com/ive-been-teasing-this-for-a-while-but-now-is-the/

Aqib Talib signs huge deal with Denver Broncos

March 12, 2014 by Mike Dussault

The unthinkable has happened. The Denver Broncos, fresh off of signing safety TJ Ward earlier in the day, signed Aqib Talib to a six-year, $57 million deal with $26 million guaranteed, the highest guaranteed total ever given to a cornerback.

What can I say? The Patriots were never going to give Talib that kind of money. I don’t think there’s a Patriot fan out there who can honestly say he was worthy of that title, as good as he was.

I don’t want to be the Patriots fan who suddenly turns on a player as soon as they leave town, but the risks with Talib were significant.

Talib was an elite corner at the start of 2013. Then he hurt his hip for the second time in two seasons with the Pats and was not the same player again last season. Giving Talib that kind of contract is extremely risky and puts a lot of faith that the injury problems that have haunted him will not continue to do so… for six more years.

The hip continued to be an issue with him and while he was a model citizen since his arrival in 2013, we’ll see how this kind of money affects him. I still have bad memories of him going off the reservation against Steve Smith and the Panthers.

I viewed Talib as the most important internal free agent this offseason and now that he’s gone the Pats could potentially take a look at Darrelle Revis. Despite some positive reports, I find it a stretch to think the Pats will be willing to pay Revis what he will want to be paid.

Everything I’ve heard is that Revis would love to be a Patriot, above any other option. Still ample time for that to happen

— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) March 12, 2014

We can hope that that deal can get done, but I’m not holding my breath. I wrote last week that if given the choice I’d prefer Revis to Talib and as a fan of the game in general have always loved watching Revis play the game. He’s special, no question. I’d be ecstatic if the Pats could figure it out with him.

I liked Talib and the trickle-down effect he had on the secondary really improved things, but there are still plenty of front seven names on the market who could improve the defense as well. Let’s not forget, an elite front seven can cover up a lot of problems you may have in your secondary.

Now we’ll get plenty of love for the Broncos from the national media which should make the rest of the offseason AWESOME. Especially if they sign Demarcus Ware as they’re rumored to. But let’s remember, it’s a long road to the Super Bowl and nothing is won in March. And it’s also refreshing to think of the Broncos in cap hell in a couple years, without Manning, trying to rebuild while cutting guys and having to watch players like Von Miller walk because they can’t afford to re-sign them.

That will be for another season. For now, WOW THE BRONCOS LOOK AMAZING ON PAPER! YAY!

The Patriots will move on and continue to do what they’ve always done. Build a complete team, not just try to collect talent, and be ready to withstand the injuries and issues that are bound to pop up in one form or another between now and February.