defense

Patriots Super Bowl 52 Film Review: Defense Edition

February 8, 2018 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots’ defense is correctly in everyone’s crosshairs after Super Bowl 52, but don’t lose sight of the fact that the defense faced a 4th-and-1 with 5:39 left in the game from the Eagles 45-yard line with a 33-32 lead. That’s the game right there.

Trey Flowers bursts through the line but was pushed off course just enough the he couldn’t quite get the quarterback. Instead, Foles made an excellent slide to his left and made a clutch off-balance throw to pick up two yards to Zach Ertz. Conversion. Game-winning touchdown scored seven plays later.

A stop right there and the Patriots are most likely Super Bowl champs and we’re sweeping the defensive shortcomings under the rug just like the Eagles defense, who gave up 600 yards, are doing right now. Both defenses were systematically shredded for most of the game, but one clutch play determines which got blamed for the loss and which got credited for the win.

Philadelphia’s gameplan was a greatest hits of everything the Patriots defense struggled with this season. Bunch sets, toss sweeps, some run-pass options… for an inexperienced front they just had no anticipation for what the Eagles were doing. The second level and edge players were where they wanted to target but they didn’t fear the Patriots pass rush when it came time to take some deep shots as well.

Here’s what stood out to me:

How Does Pats’ 2017 Bend-Don’t-Break Defense Stack Up Historically?

January 4, 2018 by Mike Dussault

For the last few years I’ve quantified the Patriots maddening-yet-effective Bend-Don’t-Break style of defense as such: Points-per-drive and Turnovers-per-drive measure the “Break” element, while Yards-per-drive and Plays-per-drive measure the “Bend” element. It’s not perfect, but it at least gives me the ability to get a sense of how bendy and breaky each defense of the Bill Belichick era has been.

How does 2017 stack up? Let’s take a look.

The 2017 Patriots Defense: Can Patchwork Front, Inconsistent Back Get It Done?

December 26, 2017 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots defense turned in another signature effort against the Bills that we’ve seen in recent weeks — early struggles on third down, some big plays allowed, only to see them tighten up in the second half and allow the offense to pull away.

I’m not here to sugar coat it guys, this defense is a shell of what we’ve seen in recent years and obviously injuries are a huge part of it. The other part of it is that the secondary, which is healthy, needed to step up and lead the way for the decimated front seven. At best, they’ve been inconsistent. At worst they’ve been lit up repeatedly no matter who they’re facing. But again, they’ve made the plays they needed to to win games.

But as I look around at the personnel up front I wonder how many stop gaps there are and how many actual building blocks there are.

I’d break it down like so:

Is Patriots’ Run Defense a Fatal Flaw? — Season Film Review

December 6, 2017 by Mike Dussault

While the Patriots defense has been trending up the last few games, I was surprised to see they had fallen from a mid-season 23rd-ranked run defense to 30th in Football Outsider’s DVOA, an analytic that weighs situation and opponent. This is of course about when Dont’a Hightower went on IR, so some drop-off should be expected but it hadn’t been all that glaring to me recently.

If they do have a bad run defense it hasn’t hurt them in the win column. Last week against the Bills they gave up their second-highest yardage total this season (183) and held them to three points. Opening night against the Chiefs (185) remains the highest and only time a team actually ran to victory over New England.

Yardage wise they’re 26th, yards-per-carry they’re 32nd.

So is this a real flaw for the Pats’ defense? Will LeVeon Bell be able to exploit it? Could the Steelers ride that to victory? Miami got a season-low 67 yards on the ground vs. New England and doesn’t look like they’ll do much more this Monday night.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the bigger running plays against and how much impact they had on the game.

Bend Don’t Break Report: How 2017 Pats D Stacks Up

November 29, 2017 by Mike Dussault

Bend Don’t Break is what frustrated fans know as the Patriots’ favored style of defensive strategy. They don’t sell out by sending a ton of pressure, instead they preach not getting beat deep and good tackling. That forces opposing offenses to continually execute, something most of them can’t do for any sustained period without mistakes, whether it’s third-down red-zone stops, takeaways or missed field goals.

Sometimes, often on the first drive of the game, opponents seem to move the ball right down the field, only to stall out and have to settle for a field goal or worse. From there the Patriots’ constriction begins, often aided by turnovers, and that simply gives Tom Brady and the Patriots’ offense enough margin to win the game.

But the BDB leaves a bad taste in many dismissive minds. That’s because the Pats always tend to give up yards. In nine of the last 16 seasons they were in the bottom half of the league in yards-per-drive. The last two seasons saw dramatic improvement, with them finishing 7th in 2015 and 8th in 2016, their best back-to-back seasons under Belichick. Only once (2003) were they inside the top five at 4th.

Your eyes are not deceiving you. Teams consistently move the ball on New England’s defense. They just don’t score, and that’s the Bend Don’t Break.

So how does the 2017 team stack up so far? It’s developed from a total Bend AND Break edition early in the season to one far more typical of the last 16 years of Patriots defenses. Let’s take a look:

First Down Problems for Pats Defense Continue

October 18, 2017 by Mike Dussault

After the first game of the 2017 season, a blowout loss to the Chiefs, I pointed out that it was first down where the Chiefs did most of their damage and prescribed simple improvement on first down as a key for a defensive turnaround.

Checking back in on first down now, after six weeks, there hasn’t been much improvement. In fact, for a defense mired near the bottom of the league in almost every category, their poor work on first down is some of the most glaring.

Here are the numbers from the past four years:

Bending and Breaking: A Historical B-D-B Look at the 2017 Pats Defense

October 11, 2017 by Mike Dussault

It’s driven you insane hundreds of times at this point. The Patriots defense is picked apart by a supposedly mediocre offense until miraculously stopping them in the red zone and forcing a field goal. Some seasons it feels like it happens on the first drive of every single game.

Yes, this is the Bend-Don’t-Break, a mantra muttered by football-philes like myself who have bought into Bill Belichick’s philosophy that sound coverage and tackling can make up for not attacking a quarterback with blitzers on every down. The Patriots certainly pick their spots to blitz defensive backs, but generally their philosophy is about 11 guys all doing their jobs and it’s hard to argue with the results even if the stats don’t rank them near the top of the league.

What matters most of course is points, and the Patriots have ranked below 13th in the league in points-per-drive just twice before this season.

My statistical way to breakdown the Bend Don’t Break is to rank plays- and yards-per-drive (BEND) and points- and turnovers-per-drive (BREAK). While the results in 2017 are expectedly putrid they’re not exactly in uncharted territory and there’s still plenty of time to turn things around.

Here’s a look at the Bend-Don’t-Break chart to see how the 2017 Pats stack up after five games.