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The 2020 Patriots have a lot to overcome defensively

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Patriots: Dont'a Hightower, Marcus Cannon among opting out of 2020
Image: USA Today Sports

The Patriots had an offseason that resulted in a great deal of turnover, and the turnover has grown over the last couple of days. This offseason the Patriots lost Jamie Collins, Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Roberts, Danny Shelton, and of course Tom Brady in free agency. They traded Duron Harmon to the Lions. They lost James Develin to retirement, and now they notably have lost Branden Bolden Patrick Chung, Marcus Cannon, and Dont’a Hightower to COVID opt-outs.

So, that’s a total of 11 impact guys on the field as well as in the locker room. In total, those 11 players have a combined 30 Super Bowl rings. Losing Tom Brady would have been a monumental loss in itself, but losing all those pieces defensively sets up a difficult challenge ahead for Bill Belichick. On top of having a major roster turnover, the pandemic has forced the NFL to cancel the preseason, which will make it difficult for Bill Belichick to fully assess his roster. Training camp will surely look different this season with all of the COVID restrictions.

Bill Belichick has pulled rabbits out of his hat before, but overcoming all of this is a new challenge in itself. This season was supposed to be the season in which Belichick proves that he was not a product of Tom Brady. But, at this point, the loss of Tom Brady isn’t even Bill Belichick’s biggest concern moving forward. The Patriots of course added former MVP quarterback Cam Newton, and they still have Julian Edelman, James White, Mohamed Sanu, N’Keal Harry, Sony Michel, and are getting David Andrews back at center.

As crazy as it sounds, I think the offense is in decent shape heading into training camp. If Cam Newton is indeed healthy, the offense will look different, but it should still be effective.

But, when it comes to the defense, Bill Belichick will have work cut out for him.

The Patriots defense was one of the best units in the NFL last season. The defense was the dominate unit for them last season, but it’s unlikely that they can get the same level of production for the unit in 2020. Losing substantial talent on all three levels of the defense will make it really difficult for the Patriots to overcome.

Starting with the defensive line, the Patriots lost Danny Shelton in free agency, as he reunited with former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia in Detroit. One of the few weaknesses, the 2019 Patriots defense had was stopping the run. Everyone remembers how Derrick Henry ran all over them in the wild card round last season. Shelton was the best run defender the Patriots had, and I believe that they will in fact miss him.

The Patriots added former Tampa Bay Bucs nose tackle Beau Allen in free agency, and he is the logical replacement for Shelton. Belichick can even move Lawrence Guy inside as a run stopper. With Adam Butler being primarily used as a pass-rusher. Getting the run defense figured out should be one of the biggest concerns for Bill Belichick.

However, when it comes to the linebackers, it won’t be as simple. In particular, replacing Van Noy, Collins, and Hightower is something that is not realistic. According to Pro Football Reference, Kyle Van Noy has played more than 80% of the defensive snaps over the last two seasons. Collins played 81% of the defensive snaps in 2019, and Hightower has been a part of three Super Bowl teams, and has been an anchor on Bill Belichick’s defense for almost a decade. Hightower wears the green dot on defense and is often considered to be the quarterback of the defense. So, the Patriots are basically entering the 2020 season with a whole new group of linebackers. A group that will depend on the jump of second year linebacker Chase Winovich, the emergence of Ja’Whaun Bentley, the readiness of rookies Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings, and the hope that Brandon Copeland will pick up the Bill Belichick’s complex defensive system.

The linebackers will likely be the Patriots’ biggest weakness of defense, but the secondary which is considered to be the biggest strength of the team took a massive hit when Patrick Chung opted out of the 2020 season. Chung has been a staple for the Patriots’ defense since 2014, and is the most versatile player in that secondary. The Patriots drafted safety Kyle Dugger in the second round of the draft, and he seems to be the logical replacement for Chung on the defense. But, it is far from a perfect fit. Dugger’s potential is clearly unknown, but a jump from NCAA Division II football to a starting safety in the NFL doesn’t seem very plausible. The Patriots also signed safety Adrian Philips in the offseason, and still have Terrance Brooks on the roster. I could see a situation in which the Patriots convert a cornerback to safety. The Patriots are very deep at cornerback and maybe can move a guy like Joejuan Williams to safety. But, they will miss Chung’s leadership and his grit as being one of the toughest guys on the field.

If you add up all the departures on defense, it’s obvious that this defense will go through a serious makeover. With a plethora of question marks, it’s tough to project who will even be on the field come week 1. Bill Belichick has certainly dealt with adversity when it comes to building a defense, but losing all of this talent days ahead of training camp is setting up a great challenge for him.

The hoodie will have his hands full when he begins to craft this Patriots defense…

Projecting Roles on Patriots Defense

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Despite losing Trey Flowers and Malcom Brown, the Patriots brought in enough free agents and rookies, and have enough young veterans returning, that the 2019 squad shouldn’t miss a beat. The 2018 champs were as shutdown as any defense under Bill Belichick down the stretch, but this edition is more talented and deep.

The ability to morph in and out of different fronts and coverages defined the second dynasty defenses. How might this deep and versatile squad get deployed by Bill Belichick and the defensive staff (with unknown playcaller)? Let’s play.

The Additions

Michael Bennett has been a problematic pass rusher that Bill Belichick long coveted. Now that the Hoodie has him, expect Bennett to play to his strengths, which means getting after the quarterback from a variety of spots. The key with Bennett will be trying not to get him beat up in the run game early on in the year. If he’s still fresh in January he could produce the kind of game-changing plays Flowers has for the last three seasons.

John Simon was brought back after carving out a pass rusher role last season. If Simon can develop from there as Rob Ninkovich did he might seize a big role.

Rookie Chase Winovich could be an early contributor who can ease the early-down snaps for Bennett. Bringing an aggressive edge-setting mentality will really lock down a job for Winovich, but there’s also a good amount of competition for him.

Jamie Collins‘ return was unexpected and it sounds like Collins is right back to his old tricks within the Patriots defense. With Kyle Van Noy mastering the defense, the Patriots now have two really athletic linebackers. And that’s not including Ja’whaun Bentley, who showed a ton of promise last year before getting hurt.

Mike Pennel was one of the best run stoppers in the league last season and is a perfect fit to replace what Malcom Brown did. With Lawrence Guy coming off a career year and Danny Shelton also brought back, the middle of the defense looks solid.

Rookie Byron Cowart is another really good defensive tackle fit and could unseat Shelton.

On the back end it’s one of the most proven and deepest groups Belichick has ever had. Only rookie JoeJuan Williams would appear to have a shot at making the roster unless injuries strike.

So how will it all come together?

Run Downs/Regular

Guy and Pennel should anchor things inside when stopping the run is the priority. Behind them Elandon Roberts and Bentley should see plenty of action as the middle linebacker.

Deatrich Wise‘s development in year three is an area to watch. If Wise can emerge into an every-down edge-setting/pass-rushing end, the trickle-down effect will be immense.

The other edge spot is up for grabs after Bennett, who really should be saved from playing in the regular package. Ideally, Simon, Winovich or Derek Rivers wins the job in August. Those three should all see significant snaps early in the season at one time or another.

The outside linebackers finally have some depth, with Hightower, Van Noy and Collins all top-flight NFL players and edge setters in the run game. Collins’ return is great news for Hightower, who won’t have to play every snap right out of the gate.

The secondary core four has one question, who is CB2? J.C. Jackson? JoeJuan Williams? Jason McCourty? That will be determined in camp and the competition will only make a great secondary better.

Passing Downs/Sub

This is where the fun begins. The featured pieces upfront, Michael Bennett and Adam Butler on the line, with Hightower, Van Noy and Collins playing all kind of games behind them.

The versatility of those three linebackers is what will make the Patriots even better prepared to deal with the Chiefs this year.

After those five players, the Pats can search for the most effective combination, with Wise, Simon, Winovich and Rivers all getting opportunities. At least one should make some splash plays with the attention the linebackers will draw.

In sub, the Pats already go six deep with NFL experience and that doesn’t include the stud rookie Williams or last year’s top pick Duke Dawson. They have size, experience and an elite cornerback in Stephon Gilmore.

The key for the back-end are the safeties, especially Patrick Chung, who makes things work with his versatility. If there’s an Achilles Heel to this Patriots’ defense it might be losing Chung to injury. Having good linebacker depth is some insurance.

McCourty’s also versatile as Harmon has spent his career taking care of the back end and allowing D-Mac to move around. As a trio, there isn’t a better safety group in the NFL.

The Patriots have a veteran core that has led them to three Super Bowls and if they stay healthy there’s good reason to project this team back in the big game.

But there are still roles to be won and chances for new players to emerge. The team has a lot of really interesting depth which should make training camp fun.

As Tom Brady embarks on one of his final seasons, it’s nice to know the other side of the ball looks ready to carry things, if/when they have to and are set up to do so for a while.

Pats Posits: How The 2nd Dynasty Defense Was Made

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5llGT42P8Mg&app=desktop

I took the last few days off from blogging Pats to just let the sixth Super Bowl win sink in and enjoy some of the various delights like the above episode of NFL Turning Point, my favorite of them all…so far.

Of course, Three Games to Glory VI will be on its way later this spring and as the proud owner of I-V, I’m excited to add to my collection.

As I’ve meditated on the win I’ve found myself more and more impressed with the defense. The turnover from the original dynasty defense is what got me started on this blog. Could Belichick replace Milloy, Law, McGinest, Samuel, Harrison, Vrabel, and Seymour with a second dynasty defense that could get Tom Brady another Super Bowl (or more)? I blogged and blogged wondering.

Well it’s clear now — Belichick did in fact build a second dynasty defense that matched the trio of the original core.

How did he do it? There isn’t a better topic to jump into in the Posits!

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Bend Don’t Break Defense Analytics Update

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It was just a couple weeks ago when the Bend Don’t Break Defense Analytic had the Patriots ranking as one of the top five defenses under Belichick. Two games later, things have planed off a bit as you might expect, but there’s one consistent factor that gives the Pats’ defense hope for the playoffs.

Let’s dive into the changes in the four key areas:

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Patriots Film Review: Defense Edition

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The Patriots defense was gashed on the ground against the Dolphins, long before the final miracle play. It was another road game where the front seven was pushed around and the secondary was out of sync for some key plays.

I hoped to make this as quick and painless as possible because I knew which play was waiting for me at the end. It went how I thought. It’s just amazing how inconsistent the defense is, from game to game and especially here, from drive to drive.

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Bend Don’t Break Update: ’18 Pats D Hits Top 5

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTKKjGeraFE

The cat is out of the bag on the 2018 Patriots defense, they’re actually pretty good. Their defining trait not a dominating front seven like the 2001-2007 defenses, but a shutdown secondary and a coordinated front that all work together.

At his core, Bill Belichick is a conservative defensive coach. He wants a defense that tackles well and doesn’t get beat deep. He’ll be aggressive in key spots and disguise plenty but generally, it’s a four-man rush with seven in coverage. When that four-man rush contains and constricts the quarterback they’re extremely effective. When they’re six-man rush stunts do the same they’re dominant.

On the road, they’ve been guilty of being out of sync. In each of the first three months, they had a defensive stinker on the road. Even the win over Kansas City wasn’t great. They were probably a little lucky to escape Chicago with a win.

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Film Review: Pats Defense All In Sync vs. Vikings

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The Patriots defense didn’t quite turn in the near-perfect performance that I saw against Miami earlier in the year, but they were pretty close against the Vikings. Despite their road inconsistencies, no one can argue this isn’t a top-10 defense at home.

The addition of some murkiness to the third-and-longs was fun to see, as was some aggressive strategy (Cover 0 blitz!?), but those twists aren’t really what defines why these Patriots are good. They’re good because they’re once again fundamentally sound and all playing in sync. A defense that doesn’t give up big plays and doesn’t beat itself is hard to score more than 20 points. On this day they held Minnesota to just 10.

Now that we’re into December it’s not too much to expect the Pats to put their days of playing down to the competition on the road behind them. That starts with the defense, who showed perfect symmetry between coverage and pass rush to negate a talented Viking offense.

Here’s a bunch of rapid-fire thoughts on what I saw on the All-22.

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