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PatsProp Preview – Heading Out West

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(Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

It’s Week 8 already! The Patriots are over in sunny LA as they look to go 4-4 on the year and keep their 100% win record over Justin Herbert intact. Here’s your preview of tomorrow’s game!

One’s To Watch

Mac Jones

Mac Jones’ improvements have been increasing every week so far this season, with his best game coming in the mauling of the Jets. Tomorrow will be a new test for the rookie, the first long away trip, big stadium, expectations increased of a demanding fan base, but, I love what I’ve seen so far, I back him to continue his good play and have a solid game, watch him closely tomorrow.

Damien Harris

After I put Stevenson on my watch list in Week 7, I’ve decided to just stick with Damien Harris this week, and for good reason. The Chargers have the worst record against the run in the league, and Harris has been on a hot streak of late. If the team can establish the run like they did last week, the passing game should open up nicely for Mac.

Secondary

This position could turn out to be the team’s achilles heel tomorrow. The Pats will be without Jon Jones, who’s now on IR for at least three games and Jalen Mills doesn’t give me a lot of confidence as a replacement. Bill has been working through depth replacements, which is an indication he’s concerned as well.

J.C. Jackson will lead the cornerback group, but they will have their work cut out from the off as the Chargers have some great weapons in the receiving core, not to mention Austin Ekeler, who can be a difference-maker if he’s fit to play.

Matt Judon

After a hot start, Matt Judon has had a few quiet weeks, he’s not been playing badly by any means, but he hasn’t stood out to me as he did through the first few games. In last year’s 45-0 demolition of the Chargers, Herbert was made uncomfortable all day by the Patriots defense, and whilst Herbert has shown considerable improvement in most areas of his game, I think the Patriots can do the same again tomorrow, with Judon being a big part of that.

Electrical Charge ⚡

Who for LA could potentially cause problems for the Patriots?

Justin Herbert

Herbert is a big, athletic quarterback who has definitely made the year-two jump in LA. His rookie season was impressive, and now with a new head coach in Brandon Staley, Herbert has led the team to 4-2 record so far this year. Herbert played the worst game of his career so far against the Patriots last December, so he’ll be itching to prove a point.

Keenan Allen

Allen hasn’t found the endzone much this season, but boy has he helped them move the chains. He is such a terrific pass-catcher and will be a handful for the Pats secondary to cover tomorrow. I think J.C. Jackson will match up against him in all likely hood, but as mentioned above, the secondary is an issue for the team, and having to cover Keenan Allen, let alone the rest of the offensive threats isn’t ideal.

Austin Ekeler

Bill Belichick likened Ekeler to James White this week in his pre-game chat with Scott Zolak, and for good reason, the former UDFA has been dominant for the Chargers over the last few years. Injuries have been a problem for the star running back, Ekeler has been banged up this week and is questionable to play tomorrow, but if he does, it’s a massive weapon for the Chargers, and could be the difference over 60 minutes.

Patriots Fantasy Starter PPR

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Hunter Henry

Gotta be big 85 this week! If you’re in a bind and need to start fresh at your TE position, throw Hunter in there! He’s looking to have his fifth-straight touchdown game and is averaging 10.63 points so far each week.

Prediction Corner

@ShawMellors – Patriots 38 – Chargers 28

The Patriots continue on from their dominating performance over the Jets last week, Mac throws for 3 touchdowns and Damien Harris continues his dominance on the ground. Patriots 38 Chargers 28

@clazzyclare – Patriots 30 – Chargers 21

Hopefully the weakness of the LAC run defence can be exploited and the Patriots can rack up some points and make a game of it. Patriots 30 LAC 21

Patriots Preview: Week 13 vs Los Angeles Chargers

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Credit- DAZN

On Sunday the 5-6 New England Patriots travel to SOFI Stadium to take on the 3-8 LA Chargers.

Date: Sunday, December 6, 2020
Game Time: 4:25 PM EST
Venue: SOFI Stadium, LA
Network: CBS
All-time record: Patriots lead series 25-15-2 (including playoffs)

When They Last Met…

Chargers 28-41 Patriots
January 13, 2019

(AP Photo/Steven Senne)

In the first game of their 2018 season playoff run, the Patriots hosted the Chargers at Gillette Stadium.

The first quarter saw 21 points scored in what was an exciting encounter. On the game’s first possession, the Patriots roared downfield with ease to allow Sony Michel to walk in the ball for the opening score.

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Pats Posits: Back in the AFCCG!

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The Patriots are back in the AFC Championship game for the eighth-straight time after walloping the Chargers 41-28 in the Divisional Round. This was a game against an early-dynasty rival and it felt like the kind of head-turning wins that those Patriots had to deliver.

This 2018 win over the Chargers is probably as close to a perfect game as you could ask for. In that regard, it’s like the 2007 AFCDG against the Jaguars. But these kinds of occasional explosions of football perfection have not often popped up in the playoffs, especially in games that many were questioning if the Patriots were done.

So now the question looms – can the 2018 Patriots win on the road to get to the Super Bowl?

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Patriots Gameplan: AFC Divisional Game vs. Los Angeles Chargers

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At this stage of the Patriots dynasty, the regular season is prologue. After a week off to rest up, the real season starts now, against the Chargers in the Divisional Round.

The Patriots have mostly owned the Chargers for the past decade-plus. There were notable losses in 2005 and 2008 with Matt Cassel at the helm, but outside of those the Patriots have dominated Phillip Rivers’ team, including ending their season twice, in 2006 and 2007.

It’s been a long time since then and the Chargers have remade themselves and stayed healthy for the first time in a long time, making them a viable threat to the Patriots hopes of getting to their eighth-straight (!) AFC Championship game.

What do the Pats have to do to give Everything They’ve Got and Beat LA? Here’s the gameplan!

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Forget Brady vs. Rivers, It’s RBs vs RBs

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I jumped back and watched last year’s Patriots defeat of the Chargers and was left thinking that if you’re betting on Super Bowl 53 and the playoffs this one might simply boil down to which stable of running backs has the better game.

While the 2018 Patriots offense is most effective with Sony Michel having early-down success, running him right into the teeth of the Chargers defense isn’t probably the smartest attack. Last year, Dion Lewis and Mike Gillislee combined for 78 yards on the ground. But it was Rex Burkhead and James White‘s combined 12 catches for 153 yards that gave the Chargers the most problems.

Here’s some more great info from Kevin Duffy of the Boston Herald:

The Chargers backfield trio of Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson combined for 138 targets this season, or 27.2 percent of Rivers’ throws. Oddly enough, Brady looked for James White, Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel on 27.7 percent of his passes, too. That’s a higher target share than Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram received in New Orleans.

What makes the dynamic especially intriguing: As prolific as Gordon and Ekeler can be in the passing game, the Chargers defense is abysmal at containing pass-catchers out of the backfield. They allowed a league-worst 973 receiving yards to running backs. According to Pro Football Reference, it’s the second-highest total allowed by a defense in the past decade. Only the 2015 Rams surrendered more receiving yards to running backs.

For the Patriots’ defense it’s clear that everything will key off of Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen. Those are the two pieces that Bill Belichick will do his best to take away.

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Can Rivers or Roethlisberger Finally Knock Off Brady Just Once in Playoffs?

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Philip Rivers and Ben Roethsliberger were both drafted in 2004 and both have gone on to Hall of Fame-worthy careers. But they’re a combined 2-14 against Tom Brady in their respected careers. With the Chargers surging and the Steelers atop the AFC it looks like Brady is on a collision course with one or maybe both of these veteran quarterbacks.

Whether or not Rivers or Roethelisberger can finally knock off Brady should be the defining story of the AFC playoffs. And it might be now or never for both.

Let’s take a closer look at how these two great quarterbacks have fared against the Patriots, and, perhaps more importantly, how Tom Brady has fared against their teams.

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Pats Posits: 6-2 at the halfway break

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The Patriots had a strong team win over the Chargers on Sunday. It wasn’t perfect but it was enough to get them to 6-2 as they hit the halfway bye week. The glaring problems and untimely struggles are slowly being eliminated. There’s still work to be done, but the stage for a strong second half is set, if the Pats can just stop losing key players to injury.

The offense moved the ball but stumbled in the red zone, making the game closer than it seemed. The Pats held the ball for 37 minutes on seven drives that lasted seven or more plays but had just one touchdown in four trips inside the Chargers’ 20. They make it look easy sometimes, especially when Dion Lewis is twisting and surging through would-be tacklers, but they’ve needed to rely too much on Stephen Gostkowski who hit four of six field goal attempts. Yes, those misses hurt and it will be a long two weeks for Gost, but SIX FG attempts shouldn’t happen! The offense needs to find their finish.

Aside from a huge blown run defense that allowed an 87-yard touchdown run by Melvin Gordon and a three-play touchdown drive aided by a 30-yard Johnson Bademosi PI penalty, the overall defense was mostly solid.  They forced three punts and grabbed the game-sealing interception in the second half, preserving what was at one point just a five-point game. This is definitely a far cry from the worst defense in football. They’re solidified the last few weeks and should get a few players back who can help make them even better.

The quietest storyline will be how, aside from Gostkowski’s misses, the special teams units were a huge part of the victory. These kinds of hidden points and yardage really add up to a lot in a close game against a good opponent. Belichick is almost too obsessed with special teams players, but there are games like this one every year where they play a huge role in a needed win.

More on it all in the Posits.

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