Yesterday was a little hectic on the real job front so not only didn’t I get a chance to discuss all the Patriots news that broke, I also didn’t get to the All-22 offense review.
Here’s the first part of that equation. As you probably know by now, Chandler Jones is out a month with a hip injury. The good news is that the bye should be included in that month so optimistically he misses the Bears, Broncos and then the Colts.
Of course those last two will have playoff implications and that’s where it hurts most.
To compensate for both the loss of Chandler, as well as Jerod Mayo, the Pats signed Akeem Ayers and are expected to sign DL Alan Branch. How both will fit and how they’ll force an evolution in scheme is anyone’s guess right now.
But my biggest concern right now is what it’s always been for the Patriots defense since 2010 – third down defense. Chandler was one of the only guys getting consistent pressure, and even he wasn’t as consistent as we would’ve liked.
You criticize the Patriots however you want, but at the end of the day, third down defense has been what has killed this team. And despite their best secondary in years, along with the first-round drafting of a pass rushing specialist, their problems have continued this year. In fact they’ve regressed so far.
Now without their best pass rusher and on the verge of facing three very good quarterbacks, including that Peyton Manning guy, the Pats have a huge challenge in front of them.
Branch has been out of football a while. Considering his size I don’t think we’re seeing him much if at all until after the bye week. He’ll likely be used as a defensive end, mostly on early downs.
As for Ayers he does have some versatility and some pass rush ability. But he was buried on the Titans’ depth chart, so to expect him to come in and be the kind of pass rusher the Pats need might be a little too lofty an expectation.
It’s the subpackages that concern me, not how this impacts the 34 or 43. Ayers should allow some flexibility to move Hightower and Collins around. But can he come in and bring pressure from the right defensive end spot like Jones did?
I’d expect against the Broncos and Colts they would be almost entirely in sub-packages, so Ayers could step in immediately with a significant role.
There’s no question, Rob NInkovich and Dominique Easley must elevate their game, especially getting after the quarterback. Easley looked okay at defensive end filling in for Chandler against the Bengals, but I don’t think he’s ready to be an every down player in that spot.
Zach Moore has only played 27 snaps so far this season, but that would seem very likely to increase substantially this weekend.
Most likely is that we’ll see a steady rotation at the defensive end and outside linebacker spots until the Pats (hopefully) find something that works. It’s only three games, but they really must find a way to at least split with Denver and Indy to keep their chances of a playoff bye. That’s obviously a tall order, since both teams are firing on all cylinders on both sides of the ball.
In the long run, losing Chandler for a period of time could be a positive in a similar way to how the Pats got to find and develop Chris Jones and Sealver Siliga after last year’s injury to Vince Wilfork.
They had no depth at defensive end and linebacker as it was, so this is a chance to get some of the unproven guys some experience. Maybe once Chandler returns we’ll have an even better front seven with Ayers and Branch in the mix to take some of the load off of him.
Ultimately the Pats have no one to blame but themselves for these problems. They played with fire having no depth behind their starting linebackers and defensive ends and now they will pay a price for it.
How much it hurts them in January will remain to be seen, but no one circles the wagons like New England.
