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Pats Posits: Things starting to click against Rex and the Bills

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I didn’t quite enjoy this New England Patriots win one as much as I wanted to (highlights here). It looked like it was about to be a blowout until the Pats let the Bills back into the game, and their fans who had left early begging to get back into the stadium (only to see them lose finally). The fourth-down stop and then the strip that quickly gave the Bills some hope made us all clench after thinking it was already in the bag. 

The offense was then forced to put a long drive together and then the defense sealed the game with an interception – a theme in four of the last five games going back to the AFCDG vs. the Ravens. The defense has certainly been clutch in that time.

Offensively the Pats put up over 500 yards and allowed minimum pressure on Tom Brady. They threw it almost 60 times and largely ignored the run, but that’s just smart football.

Defensively, they forced Tyrod Taylor to be a pocket quarterback and he couldn’t complete a non-checkdown pass when the game was in question. The Pats gave up some long runs, but showed some improvement from last week as they continue to get back into real football shape and used to tackling again.

It wasn’t all perfect and there are certainly things to work on, but generally the Patriots showed a lot of potential on both sides of the ball.

Here are the Posits:


Protection – First, a hand for the oft-rotating offensive line who allowed just two sacks and five QBs on 59 dropbacks. Most impressive were the interior rookies who really did a great job all things considered. There were some brain farts like Solder’s missed cut block that led to the strip of Brady, but compared to last year the protection has been good.

The potential loss of Sebastian Vollmer, who left the game with a hand/finger injury, is surmountable with Marcus Cannon whose best fit is at right tackle.

The offense is awesome because Gronk and Edelman consistently make big plays. Now with Dion Lewis making some big ones too it really rounds things out. Add in LaFell and this is a pick-your-poison type sitch.

Jamie Collins – Collins was kind of blah last week, but he was on fire against the BIlls with 2.5 sacks, 2 tackles for loss and 3 QB hits. The way the Patriots are sending their front LB/DEs after the quarterback is a lot of fun and there’s no question Collins is now the best all-around linebacker on the team.

Pats defense allowed three TDs on three red zone trips, a number outside of the norm for them. They were 4-for-13 on third down, a stellar number, and again outside the norm, but this one in a good way.

Fouth down will be an area of focus going forward as they failed on both attempts and failed to steop the Bills’ only fourth-down attempt.

Dion Lewis – Yeah he fumbled for the second game in the row and Ridley would be in the doghouse if he had done that, but Lewis is so explosive and dynamic you can understand why the coaches are letting him work through the ball security issues, especially after two days off. Through two games he sure is making the decision to let Shane Vereen walk look like a good one. How was an electric playmaker like him out of the league last year?

Aaron Dobson had 7 catches on 8 targets for 87 yards for his first significant contribution since 2013 vs. the Steelers. This is just the kind of game Dobson needed to get something going and he should’ve earned some trust from Brady today. I still wish he could catch the ball on the run and pick up extra yards, but he made some tough catches in this one so I’ll take it.

Disciplined defense  – Let’s not get too excited about shutting down a run-first offense after we grabbed the lead, but we saw the many options Belichick has on defense in terms of who he sends, drops or rotates in or out. Collins and Hightower are still the straws stirring the drink as Mayo gets eased back in. But there are a ton of good pieces up front that can play whatever style they need to. 

In beating a dead horse news, Dominique Easley would really tie the defense together. I think they’ll give him through the bye to get healthy.

Chandler Jones gets some criticism for his run defense and that is something to focus on in the re-watch, but against the pass he had the perfect combination of pass rushing without overplaying Taylor. He had 3 sacks, 4 QB hits and 3 tackles-for-loss. Collins might be the team’s best blitzer but Chandler is their best pass rusher and he could be in line for a monster season (extend him asap).

What a catch by Danny Amendola! That guy isn’t a huge part of the offense but he finds ways to come through to help win games. They pay him more than they probably would like to but he’s hand a big hand in some clutch wins – Browns in 2013, Jets in 2014, Ravens/Seahawks in SB run. I’ll take him on my team any game.

Rufus Johnson got snaps as an interior rusher and though he didn’t make any splash plays it will be interesting to see how he did compared to Grissom, who played the role last week. Flowers will probably get his chance vs. the Jags.

Each week it’s becoming clearer that Malcolm Butler has the confidence and swagger of a starter and will not hesitate to get in opponent’s faces. After staying quiet as a rookie, Butler is showing some personality out there and it’s much needed for a secondary that had a lot of Pats fans worried heading into this season. Butler had one interception and almost had a second, one that just evaded his hands and went for a touchdown. Even when he’s beaten it’s not by much. Butler is for real

The one scary part of the defense has to be the target on Bradley Fletcher’s back for deep throws. Tarrell Brown has been good, but Fletcher scares me more than Arrington ever did.

While it made me cringe to see the Bills get back within five points, in the long term it’s a good thing that both the offense and defense had to make plays to win a game on the road. That’s great experience that will help down the road.

All-22 review coming up Tuesday afternoon.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 2 at Buffalo Bills

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This is what the NFL season is really all about – a tough divisional matchup on the road against an opponent who is gunning for you. It’s games like this that I live for because if you judge your football enjoyment solely on whether or not your team wins the Super Bowl you’re almost always going to be disappointed.

Rex and the Bills are flying high after their Week One domination of the Colts and they have every reason to be. Their young quarterback played a near-perfect game, their defense played like tough bullies and there’s plenty of reason for the team and their fans to believe they’re going to build on last season’s 9-7 record.

Let’s face it, early season divisional games are almost always close for the Patriots, especially when facing a Rex Ryan defense. This version of the Bills looks a lot like the Jets did when Rex first got there – an elite defense and an offense centered around the ground game and a quarterback who doesn’t make the critical mistakes.

Sometimes it works to beat the Patriots – like Week 2 in 2009 and 2010, the 2010 AFCDG, and the 2013 OT Week 7 one – and sometime it doesn’t, including 45-3 and the rest.

It should be a great game against a team that is ready to give us their best shot. Here’s the gameplan!

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Offensive Gameplan

The evolution that Bill Belichick engineered to his offense during the bye week of 2010 seemed in large part a reaction to Rex Ryan’s brand of physical press coverage and masterfully disguised blitzes. The long-developing deep routes run by Randy Moss were just unavailable, especially with Darrelle Revis on him. So instead Belichick fully embraced “the scalpel”, or as some might call it “dink-and-dunk”, by bringing back Deion Branch and employing an attack that could win quickly at the line of scrimmage with smarts.

That ideology is still largely in place with Edelman and Amendola, but the presence of Rob Gronkowski is what truly tips the scales for the Patriots because it allows them in large part to dictate the matchups.

But the biggest key is protecting Brady right out of the gate. Brady mentioned they had been working on complicated pass protection since the spring and it’s absolutely vital against Ryan’s defense. They will pretend everyone is blitzing only to drop everyone, they’ll overload one side then bring the blitz from the other, or, as we saw last week, move the defensive linemen behind the linebackers and then send them on a delayed blitz. All of this must be decoded at the line of scrimmage by Brady and his offensive line, and with three rookies in the middle (unless Wendell returns) things could get dicey.

It’s not like Brady needs a ton of time like he might’ve needed while waiting for Moss to get thirty yards downfield, but what we’ve seen in the games where Rex’s defense gets in Brady’s head is that the pressure gets to him early, and then often. 

Identifying when it’s man and when it’s zone will be important as well. In the 2010 playoff loss Brady seemed to have no read on the defense and they couldn’t move the ball. Once he knows, it goes.

A big part of this is winning on first and second down with no negative plays. If they get into third-and-long Rex is able to open his entire bag of tricks. So while I welcome LeGarrette Blount back, there have been games where he has trouble getting going. That can’t happen here and it’s why I think you could see more Dion Lewis (or maybe Travaris Cadet) than expected because he’s so quick he usually picks up positive yardage. At least in the limited amount we’ve seen him so far.

Defensive Gameplan

This has all the makings of one of those maddening games where the Patriots defense just tries to keep Tyrod Taylor in the pocket and he ends up completing a bunch of passes and going right down the field on them. That’s just the Belichick style, and the necessary ingredient, and one the Pats haven’t always been very good at in recent memory, is generating pressure with only four rushers.

Expect it to be a similar approach to what they did to Russell Wilson in the Super Bowl. A somewhat slow, but definitely deliberate rush, that forces Taylor to be a pocket passer.

When the Patriots last saw Greg Roman’s offense with the 49ers in 2012 they were in a base defense 71 percent of the time, easily a season high and a number they haven’t come close to topping in seasons since. Most interesting is that they reverted to the old 3-4 defense, which has evolved into their run-stopping specialty package now.

It’s very possible they’ll return to that with Brown-Siliga-Jones up front and Ninkovich-Collins-Mayo-Hightower at linebacker. Now this is a lighter version of the old 3-4, especially when you consider the swap of Seymour at RDE for Chandler, but it’s far more athletic.

But one advantage with that athleticism is how they’ll be able to disguise their rushers from Taylor. Belichick won’t send more than four very often, but which four comes will be constantly changing, forcing the young quarterback to identify who is coming for him.

If the controlled rush can keep Taylor contained, then collapse the pocket around him and finish him off it will be ideal. But the Patriots have won plenty of games with subpar pressure that is saved by their overall discipline that forces turnovers. 

Maybe Taylor has the perfect game in him like Mark Sanchez did a few times. If he does the Patriots could very well be headed home with a loss. But one thing is certain, the Pats won’t sell out with a ton of blitzes. They’ll force Taylor to beat them with a perfect game throwing the ball.

But I’m really praying we can finally see some consistent disruptive pressure out of our front four.

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Five Areas of Emphasis

1. Decode the Blitzes – As I mentioned above, getting the protections straight for the Bills’ complex blitzes is paramount. This is especially true along the interior of the line where we can expect to see some rotating combination of Josh Kline, Tre Jackson, Shaq Mason and (hopefully) Ryan Wendell. Having two veterans like Kline and Wendell in there could be a big plus. Buffalo’s front is no joke and they’ll make some plays, but it’s important to not let one bad play lead to another bad play. If Brady can find a comfort zone early he should tear the Bills apart just like he can tear any other defense apart.

2. Stay on Schedule – Nothing will get the Pats in a quicker hole than if their runs on first and second down go nowhere. Or worse yet if they try to pass horizontally and get stopped behind the line. The Patriots’ offensive conversion rate against Rex’s Jets plummets as the yardage gets longer: 3rd-and-6+ = 30.5%, 3rd-and-8+ = 20.7%, 3rd-and-10+ = 16.3%. These numbers are well below the Patriots’ averages against the rest of the NFL. Essentially their chances of converting a first down are cut in half going from 3rd-and-6 to 3rd-and-10, so positive plays on early downs are critical.

3. One-on-One Must Win – With a number of talented pass rushers the Pats should be able to dictate some matchups on the defensive side of the ball. The key is when guys like Chandler Jones or Jabaal Sheard get only one blocker they must win. This has long been a sore spot for the Patriots but they finally have a number of different guys who can win these kind of matchups. There’s no more direct route to victory than making Tyrod Taylor uncomfortable in the pocket.

4. Feed Gronk – Tom Brady is Tom Brady, but Gronk is the deadly weapon that makes Brady and the Patriots offense truly lethal. He’s in the prime of his career and the more times he touches the ball the better. More than that, Gronk’s ability to block is the true wild card in this game, especially if the Bills give him too much attention as a pass-catcher. Whether he’s the target or he’s just pulling the attention of three players, Gronkowski gives the Patriots a chance to win every game with his complete dominance.

5. Win – Maybe no one wants to admit it but the Bills needs this game more than the Patriots do. But taking the division crown from the Pats is never done via a home win in September. It’s done by beating the majority of the other teams that aren’t quite as easy to get fired up for and THEN beating the Patriots in Gillette Stadium. The Pats have lost plenty of road AFC East games early in the season over the years, but it’s never mattered and a loss this weekend probably won’t really matter either. Not that I’m trying to mail this one in, but we’ve seen so many stinkers from NE in Week 2 in recent years we should at least be prepared for it. Still, there would be no better feeling than taking the wind out of the sails of the Bills once again. This is in all likelihood the hardest road division game of the season as the ones in New York and Miami don’t come until the last two weeks of the season. So there’s no pressure really, the Pats can just go in there and let it fly and see what happens.

Marcell Dareus, Aaron Williams of Buffalo Bills take jab at New England Patriots ahead of showdown

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Marcell Dareus, Aaron Williams of Buffalo Bills take jab at New England Patriots ahead of showdown

I’m very excited for this weekend’s game and it’s clear to see the players are too. Rex always has his defense ready to face the Patriots and more often than not his young unproven quarterback seems to play well against us. The Bills have very much taken on the bravado of Rex and his disdain for the Patriots. That’s fine. It’s what makes the regular season fun, but let’s pump the brakes a little here.

The Patriots have lost at AFC East game in September in four of the last six seasons. In 2013 they squeaked out wins over the Bills and Jets by a combined five points. So let’s not make this game to be more than we should. The Bills need this game more than the Patriots do, because they’re at home. But even a decisive Bills win this weekend doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot.

Winning in September is one thing, but if you really want to prove something about your season Bills, you’ll have to beat New England in New England on November 23rd. And not just that, you have to hold serve against teams that aren’t as easy to get fired up for. 

Beating the Patriots on the road hasn’t been some impossible task for the AFC East. All three of the other teams have done it in the last six seasons. But the big difference is none of them have won a meaningful regular season game in Foxboro since the Wildcat game of 2008. 

I’d say Sunday’s game is a 50-50 coin toss and will likely come down to the last possession, but make no mistake, the pressure is on the Bills not the Patriots.

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The Patriots will be tested by the Bills. Buffalo’s defense surged to the top of our Pressure Points rankings for the season with a dominant performance last week against the Dolphins (see below for all of Week 16′s pressure rankings). The Patriots have a much better line, but the Bills are just that good under defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, who knows a few tricks for slowing Tom Brady down from his time with the Jets. Still, expect the Patriots’ defense to come up with a few key plays to give the offense some short fields and New England to win an important game for seeding.

Philadelphia Eagles’ turnaround being led by thriving young defense | The MMQB with Peter 

How can we not agree with Bedard? Almost every game, regardless of opponent, has gone down to the wire. Last week’s blowout of the Ravens was easily then exception, so expect another near-heart attack today. Can’t even imagine how I’m going to make it through a playoff game with this team, though I guess I should be used to it.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/the-patriots-will-be-tested-by-the-bills/

The Playbook: Previewing Packers-49ers, Redskins-Eagles, other Week 1 games | Audibles – SI.com

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The Playbook: Previewing Packers-49ers, Redskins-Eagles, other Week 1 games | Audibles – SI.com

New England at Buffalo (1 p.m. ET, CBS): Look for a no-huddle vs. no-huddle matchup here. The Patriots are on the vanguard of today’s speed offenses, and they’ll want to keep Buffalo’s multi-tiered defense in base nickel coverage. The Bills are starting rookie quarterback EJ Manuel, who will benefit from quicker action and timing passes to his targets. Running backs could be the key — Bill Belichick knows how dangerous C.J. Spiller is, and Pats back Shane Vereen can line up all along the formation. – DF

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I give a lot of credit to the Patriots. They play as one unit. … They’re aggressive. It’s going to be a test. It’s going to be a challenge,” he said. “But I still think we can take advantage of their defense. … I’ll still ride with my boys over their guys.

Stevie Johnson of Buffalo Bills boasts New England Patriots D cannot stop me – ESPN

https://www.patspropaganda.com/i-give-a-lot-of-credit-to-the-patriots-they-play/

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Did Brandon Spikes get a finger on this ball? After reviewing the film the Patriots thought he did, and thus the pass interference call on Sergio in the End Zone should’ve not been called.

You can literally see the difference in inches between winning and losing in the NFL here. If Sergio doesn’t get that penalty, Barrett’s interception stands and the Pats most likely win. Oh well.

Of course the Bills winning this game in week three totally ensures that when the two teams meet again in week seventeen that the Pats won’t be resting starters and the Bills getting their golf clubs ready, right?

https://www.patspropaganda.com/did-brandon-spikes-get-a-finger-on-this-ball/