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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS| AFC Conference Championship Preview

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS| AFC Conference Championship Preview

If you only read one Patriots-Ravens preview make it this one.

Some interesting nuggets for those who don’t have the time or inclination to read this entire opus:

  • We know the Ravens like to use Ray Rice in the passing game, but the Patriots were very good against running backs in the passing game, ranking fourth in DVOA. That success is part of the reason why New England was actually pretty close to average on shorter passes, 15 yards or less through the air. Using the “defense vs. receivers” DVOA*, the Patriots come out with a -3.0% DVOA against these short passes. They allow an average of 6.47 yards per pass, slightly above the league average of 6.22 yards per pass.
  • Many people thought the Patriots pass rush was in trouble when defensive Andre Carter went down with an injury during the Week 13 game against Denver. But the Patriots’ Adjusted Sack Rate has actually improved since then. Including last week’s playoff game, the Patriots have gone from 5.9 percent ASR through Week 13 to 9.9 percent ASR in Weeks 14-19.
  • If you are a believer that teams develop over the course of the season, you’ve got to be a little extra worried about the Ravens in this game. The Ravens defense has simply not been the same since beginning of November. During the first nine weeks of the season, the Ravens defense ranked second against the pass, second against the run, and first overall. Since Week 10 (including the playoffs), the Ravens defense ranks fourth against the pass, 15th against the run, and seventh overall. Those ranks would be even worse if we didn’t include last week’s playoff game, as the Ravens did right the ship a bit against the Houston Texans.

  • Now, here’s a big difference between these two teams. The Patriots were one of the top teams in our special teams ratings this year. The Ravens, after a great year on special teams in 2010, plummeted all the way down to 30th.

  • This game is far from a slam dunk for the Patriots, but a lot of the matchups point their way. It’s not hard for offenses to gain passing yards on the Patriots defense, but the Ravens’ passing game just doesn’t seem to be particularly suited to picking on the Patriots’ greatest weaknesses unless Joe Flacco can hit a couple of deep bombs to Torrey Smith. Ray Rice should have a big day on the ground, but it is hard to outscore Tom Brady and this Patriots offense primarily with your running game.

Patriots vs. Ravens is a football purists’ dream

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If you’re a fan of pure football then this year’s AFC Championship is just the game for you.  The Patriots and Ravens don’t have much ill will off of the field. The superficial dramatics that the Pats share with teams like the Colts, Steelers and Jets are absent with the Ravens.

Instead, the battle between New England and Baltimore will be all about football. Both teams respect each other, and both teams feature Hall of Fame players who might be seeing one of their last chances to get a ring.

Neither team is a “cinderella”. This is the one seed vs. the two seed for the right to go to the Super Bowl. It’s far less about schematic surprises and twists than it is about pure and simple physical football. Both teams will line up and it will be a fist fight until the final whistle.

Even though I am an obsessive Patriots blogger, I’m still a football purist at heart, and a match-up like this is one I savor. Two well-constructed football teams, not without their weaknesses, but each with respectable strengths, competing at the highest level.

The Patriots have had their share of playoff games like this is the past, and have come out on top the majority of the time. The moment was never too big for the early-2000’s dynasty Pats, but will it be for this, the second generation of Belichick Patriots? We’ll find out in 48 hours.

2011 Patriots Defense was top five in one area that will be useful this weekend

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The Patriots defense has been hammered from a statistical perspective all year long, however there’s one statistical ranking that could be a positive sign for this weekend’s matchup against the Ravens.

Football Outsiders has the Pats ranked 4th overall in pass coverage on running backs.  Against the Ravens with Ray Rice as their leading receiver this could be a big factor.

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2010 Patriots vs. Ravens Box Score Flashback

This game was won in overtime by the Pats, 23-20. Biggest thing of note from this one is that Gronk wasn’t quite Gronk yet, and only caught one pass all game. The Pats had 2 interceptions and 9 penalties yet still overcame the Ravens because they kept their running in check (99 yards on 34 attempts for 2.9 avg), and had one of their best defensive games of the 2010 season, especially in crunch time.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/2010-patriots-vs-ravens-box-score-flashback-this/

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2009 Patriots – Ravens Playoff Box Score Flashback

These numbers just go to show if you can’t stop the run and turn the ball over four times it doesn’t really matter else you do, you’re going to lose.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/2009-patriots-ravens-playoff-box-score/

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2009 Ravens @ Patriots Box Score Flashback

This was the regular season game won by the Patriots 27-21

https://www.patspropaganda.com/2009-ravens-patriots-box-score-flashback-this/