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Tom Brady is Still Good at Football

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I’ve been getting some questions in regards to the ProFootballFocus.com/ESPN Insider report that Tom Brady is no longer a top five NFL quarterback. As much as I usually ignore articles like this, it’s the dead season so I might as well weigh in.

As readers of this blog might know, I generally ignore arbitrary rankings whether they’re of teams or players. There’s an endless quest by sports writers out there to rank everything. They’re great click bait and instantly inflammatory if a fan feels his team or player is ranked too low.

And when you piss off fans your work tends to spread like wildfire and you end up on WEEI talking to D&C.

Do these rankings really matter on any given Sunday? Nope. And how boring would sports be if every team and player was easily rankable and that’s how it always played out.

So generally, I could really care less what PFF has to say. A couple years ago they were killing Vince Wilfork to the point where they had to come out and explain why. They also had Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, and Tony Romo ranked ahead of Brady in 2010. You know, the year Brady was the first ever unanimous MVP of the NFL.

PFF certainly has made a good run out of telling everyone how the Patriots really aren’t that good.

I’ve always issued caution when referring to PFF’s grades in general. They are but one analyst’s opinion and not the end-all be-all of football grades. The fact that the grades for each game are available by Monday, before All-22 game film is made available has always bothered me.

Regardless, it’s impossible for ANYONE, even with All-22 to accurately grade every play. They don’t know the play call. They don’t know the defense. They don’t know the coverage. They don’t know if there was a missed adjustment call. They don’t know much of anything except who was closest to the ball when it was complete or incomplete, or who tackled the ball carrier.

We also have no idea who is grading these games, how consistent they are and exactly what their football backgrounds are. 

In general, I like PFF to run my own opinions against, but to take every stat and piece of information they pass on as indisputable truth is a stretch. They provide a little piece of the big picture.

Now, as for Brady, I’m not a blind homer. He’s in his late-30’s. It’s inevitable that he’s likely declined a bit in certain areas over the last few years, but to state that his decline is obvious is just hyperbole.

It’s also convenient to pile on Brady after what was unquestionably the most challenging year of his career. Not only for the receiver turnover but all the injuries (especially to Gronk) and that one big glaring arrest.

Is Brady still a Top 5 quarterback? I don’t really give a shit. All I know is that there is no other quarterback I’d rather have leading my team and what he did last year with the new receivers and all the injuries did nothing but cement in my mind that he’s one of the best of all time. 

Taking a closer look at Patriots’ backup linebackers

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One area of the New England Patriots’ roster that looks frighteningly thin is at linebacker. Starters Jerod Mayo, Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins are all very versatile and solid, but after them the dropoff is precipitous.

While the squad of back-up linebackers won’t have much effect on the odds on the first Patriots game of the season, an injury to one of the starters could be disastrous to a Super Bowl run.

There’s a very good chance that as many as three of these players could make the team, and while a couple of them will likely stick as special teamers-only, could any of them actually see significant time on defense?

The Pats lost middle linebackers Brandon Spikes and Dane Fletcher, both who played significant snaps. Here are the candidates to replace them:

Beauharnais looks the most intriguing on paper. He played a lot in the 2013 preseason and could have the most defensive upside of anyone.

White and Hull look primarily like special teamers and should have the inside track on a roster spot for that very reason being the most experienced veterans on this list.

Davis and Fleming projected to be primarily pass rushers when they were coming out of college. Fleming has had back-to-back seasons of tearing the same ACL, but if he can avoid tearing it again he could be a potential designated pass rusher option. He has solid size for that spot.

The rookies Gordon, Skinner and McCuller are all intriguing for their own reasons. McCuller is making the jump from division 2, where he was all-everything. 

Gordon and Skinner come from good college programs and have special teams potential. But neither were blue chip prospects.

My projection? Beauharnais wins the fourth linebacker spot and sees time both on special teams and on defense. White should also make it, while Gordon makes it for special teams as well.

The wild card? Fleming. He might not see much time at linebacker but could end up being a surprise pass rusher who sees time in sub-packages.

People talk about how the WRs and Jamie Collins will and need to have a breakout year but what about the people who need to take that final step like Solder, Chandler and Hightower

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Fair point. I think Solder had an okay year last year, but it would be nice to see him take that final step into an elite left tackle. I certainly think he’s capable of it, just has had some inconsistency.

As for Hightower, I’m not sure what his role will be this year. On one hand I thought he overcame a rough start when Mayo went down and really came into his own toward the end of the season. He was really thrust into the spotlight and even admitted he might’ve been trying to do too much when he was suddenly the defensive signal caller.

But what will 2014 hold for him? Could it be that with Mayo back and Collins’ emergence that Hightower might be relegated to a two-down linebacker role? It’s certainly a possibility. The key for him as I see it is proving his worth on passing downs. He might not have the speed of Mayo and Collins but perhaps there’s a pass rushing role he could carve out for himself.

As for Chandler I think he just has to keep balling like he did last year. The talent level along the rest of the defensive line should be much improved and that should take some of the attention away from Chandler, enabling him to be even more productive. Just stick Easley out there and watch how much easier it gets for Chandler while the guard and center are trying to account for an interior defensive lineman flying off the ball.

Most of all the Pats just need Chandler to stay healthy, because if he goes down the dropoff at defensive end is precipitous. 

Ranking the Threats to Patriots’ AFC Dominance

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All the best sportsbooks have the Patriots among the iron of the NFL, favored to once again be in the hunt for the Super Bowl. But much can change over the course of season and injuries, hot and cold streaks and other factors come into play.

As a Patriots blogger I have a pretty good sense of the teams that are on the right track to beat the Patriots. Here’s my list of the AFC teams that scare me most.

5. Baltimore Ravens: I’m not sure how much bearing we can put into the Patriots 2013 dismantling of the Ravens in Baltimore. Every game going back to 2007 had been fairly close until then, but I believed the Ravens would not be able to play the Patriots the same way without Ed Reed and Ray Lewis and I still think that is the case. The Ravens were one of the few teams that were never afraid of the Patriots, but without Lewis and Reed, they lost some of that. Still, the Ravens are well-run and will emerge from their defensive overhaul as the Pats did. The Ravens are similarly constructed and the result is (almost) always a physical contest that comes down to the end.

4. Miami Dolphins: Miami pulled out a win over the Pats last season, but, like the rest of the division, just can’t seem to pull off the upset in New England. Still, they have a promising young quarterback in Ryan Tannehill and with a re-built offensive line, New England won’t be able to get as blitz-happy against them this year.

3. New York Jets: Outside of a few Patriots blowouts, the Jets and Patriots almost always have close ones. The Pats are 2-3 in New York since 2009, though all anyone remembers is the ButtFumble. Rex Ryan’s defense was rebuilt on the fly and now has as promising of a front seven as any team in the NFL. They are another team unafraid of the Pats’ mystique. If their revamped offense can find it’s stride by the time the head to Foxboro in mid-October they could be primed to pull off an upset. They haven’t won in New England since the 2010 playoffs though they came within overtime of doing it in 2012.

2. Indianapolis Colts: It hasn’t looked like the Pats have much to fear from Andrew Luck in the first two times they faced him, including last year’s playoff game, but both contests were in Foxboro. Now the Pats must travel to Indianapolis, where the Colts are a different team.  Hakeem Nicks should help improve the offense with Reggie Wayne and if their offensive line fixes its problems, Luck should make some throws, even against the revamped Patriots secondary. This November 16th matchup could determine where the playoff rematch is played. The Pats will have their work cut out for them against a Colts team that will be looking to make a statement against them.

1. Denver Broncos: Who else would be number one? The Broncos handles the Pats in the AFC Championship and both teams had notable offseasons. However I think the Pats have the edge, or at least will have the edge by January. The Broncos depth is frightening, especially on defense. They have little margin for error and if Peyton Manning’s game declines (along with Wes Welker’s), the Broncos could be going the “old and slow” route to another disappointing playoff run. The Pats do have depth concerns of their own, but their ability to overcome injuries was well-documented in 2013, and there’s little chance New England sees that kind of attrition for a second season in a row.

An Early Preview of Patriots’ Training Camp Position Battles

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Training camp is just over two months away, and while we’ll get a brief reprieve in mid-June with mini-camp, for the most part this will be one of the quietest times of years. (Unless someone gets arrested for a homicide again this year…)

With the majority of the roster set, here’s an early preview of some of the biggest positional battles we’ll have an eye on.

1. Defensive Line vs. Health: Last year the Pats finished the season with Sealver Siliga, Chris Jones and Joe Vellano as their top three defensive linemen. Now, four new players enter the fold who are coming off significant injuries. Vince Wilfork (torn Achilles), Tommy Kelly (ACL), Armond Armstead (infection) and first-round pick Dominique Easley (ACL) could end up anywhere from the top of the depth chart to the PUP list. There are plenty of questions at this spot, but if most of those returning are healthy and able to go, it will be interesting to see how it shakes out.

2. Interior OL: Incumbents Ryan Wendell © and Dan Connolly (RG/C) vs. rookies Bryan Stork (C/OG) and Jon Halapio (G). Wendell received a new contract but it wasn’t the kind of deal that makes you think he’s set in stone for the long term. Connolly is taking a sizable cap hit as well, but he has started a full season at center, so that versatility is a plus for him. Both Stork and Halapio have potential to start right out of the gate and that could be a badly-needed upgrade of size and talent to the interior OL.

3. X Wide Receiver: 2013 2nd-round pick Aaron Dobson could have the inside track but he’s still recovering from offseason foot surgery and that could hurt his progress. Kenbrell Thompkins showed promise early in 2013, but faded down the stretch. Can he bounce back? Newly acquired free agent Brandon LaFell was a versatile threat in Carolina but saw limited time at X due to Steve Smith’s presence. He could really blossom with a player like Brady. Second-year player Mark Harrison missed all of his rookie year recovering from injuries, he has the size and measurables. If he can live up to them he could be the wild card here.

4. Running back: Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen are roster locks, but behind them Brandon Bolden will have competition from rookies James White, Stephen Houston, Roy Finch and Jonas Grey for two, and possibly three, spots. White should be a lock as well, while the most direct competition could be Houston vs. Bolden for the short-yardage situations.

5. Designated Pass Rusher: The Pats are extremely thin at defensive end and who will step into the DPR role remains a question. They signed Will Smith who is still recovering from an ACL tear. Who knows if he still has the gas needed to consistently get after the quarterback. That then leaves second-year player Michael Buchanan, who started in the DPR role early in 2013 before being replaced. Jake Bequette hasn’t done much of anything in his first two seasons and will need to take a huge step forward to keep his job this year. Rookie Zach Moore is coming out of a small school and will likely need time to develop a full array of pass rush moves.