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Patriots Training Camp Preview: Defensive End

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The Patriots defensive end group starts and almost ends with Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. The two combined to play the most snaps by two defensive ends in the NFL.

Behind them the depth is either coming off injury or largely unproven. In a league where your defense lives or dies by their pass rush, do the Pats have enough horses to control the edges for five-plus months?

Here’s our take on the defensive end group.

Ninkovich and Jones are represent what the Patriots defensive end position has evolved into. Bill Belichick’s defensive ends used to look like Richard Seymour and Ty Warren. Now they’re more like outside linebackers in that old system, but playing mostly with their hands in the dirt.

Ninkovich plays primarily on the left side and is stout against the run. He’s also a timely playmaker and extremely durable. Jones has great length and has put up 17.5 sacks in his first two seasons. Jones’ length and athleticism are his biggest strengths.

Both can play every down, but they really shouldn’t be relied upon quite as heavily as they were in 2013, when combined to play 95 percent of the Patriots defensive snaps.

Michael Buchanan started the season off as the designated pass rusher but hit a rookie wall and was essentially replaced by veteran Andre Carter. Buchanan should develop with a full season under his belt and the Pats would love nothing more than if he retakes the DPR spot and becomes a passing-down terror. Whether or not he can hold up on early downs to spell NInkovich and Jones would be icing on the cake.

That job as the third early-down defensive end will likely go to veteran Will Smith, who had a down year in 2012, was moved to outside linebacker in 2013 and promptly tore his ACL before the regular season started.

Can Smith revive his career in New England? It’s certainly possible, but Buchanan obviously has more long term potential and comes at a bargain since he’s a 7th round pick.

If Smith recaptures the magic from earlier in his career, the Pats defense will be deadly and deep.

Jake Bequette enters his third season after two disappointing years. Bequette was a third-round draft pick and at 6’5", 274 pounds certainly has ideal size. He spent most of his time as a wide-9 pass rusher in college, but those skills have yet to translate to the NFL. The writing is on the wall for Bequette this summer, but the door isn’t quite entirely closed on him due to the lack of depth at defensive end. He just might be one injury away from a roster spot. He’s also one sub-par training camp from being out of a job.

Zach Moore was selected in the sixth round out of Division 2 Concordia where he set a school record for sacks (33). He’s raw, but demonstrated the kind of explosion numbers that intrigue. He might be at least a year away, but could be a dark horse in a wide open field behind Jones and Ninkovich.

Projection:

In a perfect world, the Pats wouldn’t have to run Jones and Ninkovich into the ground again this season. They should hope to find a reliable third option who can play base downs and get after the quarterback on passing downs. 

This might have to be done via committee with a likely scenario being Smith and Buchanan both working in. Ideally, one of them would emerge as a dual threat.

Jones could be primed to step into the spotlight as an NFL superstar this season with the improved secondary behind him. Ninkovich is no slouch either and is really the poster boy for Bill Belichick’s second defensive evolution with the Patriots.

But if injuries were to strike Jones or Ninkovich the Pats could be in big trouble. This is a position they must be wary of, whether it means adding another player via trade at the end of training camp, or throwing Moore immediately into the fire. Depth at defensive end is critical.

Previously:

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Offensive Line

Tight Ends

Defensive Tackle

Patriots Training Camp Preview: Defensive Tackle

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There were some major headlines this offseason for the Patriots at the defensive tackle position. The first was Vince Wilfork restructuring his contract after a somewhat acrimonious beginning in February. 

Tommy Kelly did the same and, along with the first-round selection of the explosive Dominique Easley in the first round of the draft, the Pats have some promise in the front middle of their front seven.

The Pats still have some questions at the position, but if everyone is healthy it might just be one of the deepest and most talented spots on the roster.

Here’s our defensive tackle preview.

Both Wilfork and Kelly appear headed in the right direction after OTAs. While both could open training camp on the PUP list, it seems plausible that both will be ready to go sooner than later.

Can both return to their previous level of play after major injuries? That’s one of the biggest questions facing the Pats defense. However, unlike last year, the Pats have built up some depth behind their projected starting two-some.

Chris Jones and Sealver Siliga were thrown into the fire last year, Jones sooner than Siliga, but by January both were solid players trending upward. The Pats have failed to develop any youth at the position, so Jones and Siliga’s 2013 seasons are reason for optimism regardless of Wilfork and Kelly.

Joe Vellano also did a good job in relief duty in 2013, but with the addition of Easley and the return of Wilfork and Kelly, he could be pushed off the roster. He was the least impressive of the 2013 fill-ins and just lacks the size necessary to hold up and the speed to make an impact on passing downs.

The addition of Easley is one of the most exciting developments for the defense in recent seasons. Easley has rare explosion and despite coming off a second ACL tear, should be ready to go early in the season.

Easley should make an instant impact on third downs, a place where the Patriots have been worst in the NFL over the last four seasons. He is outside the mold of the kind of defensive tackles Bill Belichick tends to like and this points to the evolution of the game as well as Belichick’s thinking.

Marcus Forston and Seali’i Espenesa round out the depth at nose tackle, while Armond Armstead’s disappointing retirement thins out the depth a bit behind Jones and Easley for a pass rusher.

Projection: If everyone is healthy the Patriots will be able to play any front with perfect personnel. A penetrating 4-3? Easley and Jones have you covered inside. A two-gapping 3-4? Wilfork and Kelly can play any spot up front.

Most likely Belichick will mix and match his defensive tackles, with one attacking and another taking away multiple gaps. Who will be where on any given play in any given game is anyone’s guess.

And that’s just the way Belichick likes it.

Previously:

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Offensive Line

Tight Ends

Patriots Training Camp Preview: Tight End

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With Rob Gronkowski ending the 2013 season on IR once again, most prognosticators figured the Pats would make a move on a tight end, either in free agency, the draft, or both this offseason.

The Pats re-signed Michael Hoomanawanui, but didn’t spend a single draft pick at the position, when most mocks gave them one of Jace Amaro, Troy Niklas, CJ Fiedorowicz or Austin Seferian Jenkins.

The Pats did kick the tires on a few of the injured free agent tight ends but never made a move. What can we expect to see from a lighter-than-expected tight end group this season?

Here’s our preview of a sparse tight end group.

First, the good news. Rob Gronkowski seems on track to be ready to go week one. If Gronk can stay healthy this year (granted a big if given his size and the hits/tackles he takes) the Pats’ need for another impact tight end is significantly less.

You can throw Michael Hoomanawanui out there for your two-tight set, or even James Develin who saw time at tight end in OTAs and you’ll be fine. Or maybe DJ Williams lives up to the potential he demonstrated when he won the 2010 John Mackey Award as the best tight end in college football.

Will it be the Gronk/Hernando show of 2011? No, but that was rare and not the kind of offense you can easily manufacture.

But if Dustin Keller is healthy, he’d make a lot of sense to shore up the F-receiver spot and with Gronk they’d be a potent pairing.

However, there is a lot of pressure on Gronk this year, especially given that he’s coming off an ACL surgery and usually it takes a full season to get back to normal. 

If Gronk once again ends the year on IR, it might make sense for the Pats to not pick up his contract option, as hard as that is to believe. Would anyone object to putting that money toward Darrelle Revis?

But if Gronk does go down again this year, the Pats are right back where they ended last season, without a true threat or blocking force at tight end. Not even Keller would fully fix that problem.

Perhaps one of the two undrafted rookies – Asa Watson or Justin Jones could emerge. Watson is more of an F-tight end who is coming off heart surgery (never a great thing), while Jones has monstrous size at 6’8", 274 pounds, but looked extremely slow in OTAs. 

It’s hard to think either will have an impact as rookies, especially after we were burned so badly by Zach Sudfeld last preseason.

Projection:

No secret here, it’s all about Gronk. If he starts week one and is standing on the field as the final gun sounds for the Pats last playoff game, there’s a very good chance the Pats will be playing in the Super Bowl. If Gronk sustains another major injury, or one of the previous major injuries to his back, arm or knee return, the Pats offense will struggle to replace him and take a big step backwards.

This is a feast-or-famine way to enter a season. There’s a ton on the line for both the player and the team. It will be one of, if not the biggest, storyline to monitor this season.

But with three roster spots open as of this posting, the Pats might still have another move or two to make at the position.

Previously:

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Offensive Line

Patriots Training Camp Preview: Offensive Line

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The offensive line has long been a point of pride for the New England Patriots. But recent years have brought transition, and they will be further put to the test with this offseason’s departure of legendary offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia.

The Pats were able to reinforce their line in the draft this year, and with the return of Sebastian Vollmer, the Pats should once again be able to give Tom Brady top-notch protection.

Here’s our preview of the offensive line.

Heading into the draft, I felt it was critical that the Patriots used multiple picks to solidify the interior of their offensive line. Center Ryan Wendell and right guard Dan Connolly had inconsistent years in 2013, casting doubt on whether either of them are long-term solutions at their respective positions.

Wendell was re-signed for a low money deal, further reinforcing that he’ll have to win his starting spot in 2014. Connolly was thought to be a potential cap casualty, with a cap hit in excess of $4 million this season, but so far he’s remained on the roster. 

But he shouldn’t get too comfortable, especially with rookie Jon Halapio in the mix. Bryan Stork is another rookie who should compete directly with Wendell for immediate playing time, though he had his fair share of botched snap penalty laps in OTAs.

Stork (6’4", 313) and Halapio (6’3", 323) have better size than Wendell (6’2", 300) and Connolly (6’4", 305). If they don’t see significant time early in the season, they should figure in to the long-term plans of the team.

Of course, the tone-setter of the line is Logan Mankins, who, despite a reputation of being the premiere mauler in the NFL, still had his fair share of bad plays in 2013. He’s due for an $11 million cap hit in 2015, and if he’s not back on top of his game in 2014, he could be a cap casualty next offseason. A restructure might be in his future regardless.

At tackle, the Pats will return bookends Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer, one of the best starting duos in the NFL. Solder battled some inconsistency in his second full year as the starting left tackle, but his size and athleticism are second to none and he should continue to develop.

Marcus Cannon did an admirable job filling in at right tackle after Vollmer, was lost for the 2013 with a broken leg. He also has some versatility to play guard and that helps his roster chances. While there was a time when many thought Cannon’s best fit was at guard, it’s our view that he can simply fill in there if necessary, but he’s best served as a tackle.

Rookie tackle Cameron Fleming adds depth at the position, though the scouting reports felt he was primarily a right tackle. This could be good insurance for Vollmer, who has battled injuries and will account for a $6 million cap hit in 2015. Cannon also is in the last year of his rookie deal, so the selection of Fleming seems very much focused on protecting the Pats for this coming offseason more than it’s about 2014.

Josh Kline is a guard who showed some promise last season in spot duty. Braxton Cave, Chris Barker, Chris Martin and Jordan Devey round out the training camp roster, and will likely need injuries to make the squad.

Projection: Wendell is only a center, while Connolly’s cap hit is certainly not in his favor. Would the Pats be willing to cut loose two of their veteran interior offensive linemen in a move to save money and go with a youth movement? They’d likely take some lumps early if they do.

Perhaps keeping Connolly around, because he started 2011 at center as well, is the safest play while Stork and Halapio develop. 

The Pats are well-stocked at tackle and prepared for the future. An extension for Solder would make sense this season, as he’d likely be a hot commodity if he hits free agency next spring.

If Mankins returns to form and Stork/Halapio are able to solidify the interior problems, the Pats could be on track to restore the level of protection Tom Brady was used to for most of the last decade. 

And as Brady enters his late-30’s he’ll certainly need it.

Previously:

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Patriots Training Camp Preview: Wide Receiver

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2013 was a year of transition at the Wide Receiver position for the Patriots. They weathered injuries to almost every receiver, save Julian Edelman, who came through as a breakout go-to star of the offense.

Things should be better for the Pats’ aerial assault in 2014, especially if they can stay healthy. With a year of development under their belt, the Pats collection of second-year pass catchers must be counted on to take significant steps forward.

Here’s our preview of the receivers.

We must begin with Julian Edelman, who turned in his first fully healthy season and snagged 105 catches for 1,056 yards, and six touchdowns. The Pats were wise to re-sign Edelman to a four-year deal.

Edelman became one of the few homegrown receivers to blossom in New England, joining the ranks of Deion Branch, David Givens and not really anyone else. It’s all the more impressive considering Edelman was a quarterback in college.

There’s little reason to think that Edelman won’t have another 100-catch, 1,000-yard season if he can stay healthy, but that’s never a given for a fearless competitor like Edelman who makes plays all over the field and in the punt return game.

What would make life even more easy for Edelman is if the other receivers around him progress and draw some attention away from him. Danny Amendola battled a groin injury for all but the first half of the first game of the season, but could be poised to blossom in his second year in the Patriots’ offense.

While many were frustrated that Amendola was hit by the injury bug, he had flashes of brilliance even with a torn groin, including catching the game-winning touchdown against the Browns. Still, zero catches on one target in the AFC Championship was disappointing.

A trio of rookie receivers all flashed at times in 2013. Aaron Dobson was the highest draft pick and has the highest ceiling. His season was derailed just as it looked like he was “getting it” with a five-catch, 130-yard, two touchdown performance against the Steelers.

Dobson would catch just six balls the rest of the season after sustaining a foot injury that would require offseason surgery and keep him out of OTAs. Dobson’s potential as the X-receiver in the offense in undeniable. He has good size and brings a much-needed vertical element. For Dobson it’s just a matter of getting healthy and picking up where he left off against the Steelers. The sooner that happens, the better, but if he continues to miss time he could get left behind.

Kenbrell Thompkins was an undrafted rookie who was one of the standouts of training camp last season. Thompkins has good size and is shifty enough at the line of scrimmage to beat press coverage. Once the regular season started Thompkins looked like a rookie. 

Like Dobson, he still flashed some potential, including the game-winning touchdown catch against the Saints. He also put up six catches for 127 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons in Week Four.

Also like Dobson, he faded as the season progressed and was a non-factor by the playoffs, due at least in part to his own injury. Thompkins has once against emerged in OTAs this spring. This is a positive sign that Thompkins is a legitimate player, and just needs to get more game experience that will slow the game down for him. He’ll push Dobson for the starting X spot in training camp.

Josh Boyce was a fourth round draft pick last season with elite speed, but he didn’t flash quite as much potential as Dobson and Thompkins did. He had just nine catches for 121 yards on the season, catching a pass in just four games. His season ended on IR. His best route to a roster spot might be as a kick returner where he saw time this spring.

The Patriots added veteran free agent Brandon LaFell as well this offseason. LaFell is a superlative blocker and has the kind of size the Pats need outside of Dobson. LaFell has been consistent in his first four seasons and the great unknown is how he will respond playing with Tom Brady. LaFell could end up starting at the X-receiver spot, or cut at the end of training camp – neither would be a surprise.

Behind the main group are seventh-round pick Jeremy Gallon, who is undersized but an explosive playmaker. He could sneak on to the roster, especially if injuries strike at the receiver position. He’ll be exciting to watch in the preseason and should be a fan favorite. If Edelman, Amendola and Boyce avoid injury, Gallon could be headed to the practice squad.

Reese Wiggins, Wilson Van Hooser and Jeremy Johnson round out the group.

Projection:

With depth extremely thin at the tight end position, the Pats could look to more 11 personnel this year, which means multiple wide receivers will see a lot of snaps.

Edelman and Amendola should help keep the Pats offense on time, but for them to truly hit the next level, they need Dobson, Thompkins or LaFell to be an outside and vertical threat.

Doesn’t really matter which of them does it, though Dobson seems to have the most potential on paper and Thompkins has put together two of the best offseasons by a receiver in memory. LaFell might be the fallback option, but his size is certainly a welcome addition.

For the other receivers to get into the mix they’ll have to rely on injuries, which seems likely given the respective track records of those atop the depth chart.

Previously:

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Patriots Training Camp Preview: Running Backs

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Running back is one of the most intriguing positions on the New England Patriots’ roster this training camp. The headline of the offseason was the loss of breakout player LeGarrette Blount, but the Pats didn’t make a veteran addition to replace Blount, leaving the spotlight on fourth-year veterans Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, both of whom enter contract years.

With a diverse set of rookies also on the roster, this could be one of the most competitive position battles in training camp.

Our Training Camp Preview series continues with a look at the running backs.

It would be easy to pencil in Stevan Ridley as the early-down starter and Shane Vereen as the passing-down starter, with Brandon Bolden spelling both. But things are never that simple with Bill Belichick’s Patriots.

Both Ridley and Vereen have their respective baggage. For Ridley, it’s fumbles and for Vereen it’s injuries. Ridley has had four fumbles in each of his last two seasons, and while that total isn’t egregious, Belichick does not take kindly to “error repeaters”.

Vereen played just eight games in 2013, but continues to brim with potential. The effects of a first-game wrist injury in 2013 haunted him for the rest of the season, yet he still possesses elite pass-catching skills. 

Surrounding their top two options there are a lot of “ifs”. IF Ridley can hang on to the ball… IF Vereen can stay healthy… Both are good players, but the NFL is loaded with good players and if they can’t stay on the field the Patriots will move on to find running backs who can.

Brandon Bolden returns for his third season after nearly-identical stats in his first two years. Bolden is a better fit as a base-down running back, but doesn’t get many yards-after-contact and was miscast filling in as a receiving back for Vereen. 

Could he be due for a breakout year in 2014 where he challenges Ridley for early-down carries? That might be expecting too much.

Behind Ridley, Vereen and Bolden are a group of rookies who cover the spectrum. 

Stephen Houston is 6’, 230-pound power back. James White is a fourth-round draft pick much in the same mold of Vereen as a pass-catching threat. Roy Finch is a 5’7", 180-pound scatback who turned heads in OTAS. Jonas Grey rounds out the group as another power back after spending his rookie season on Baltimore’s practice squad.

Projection:

There’s at least one open spot on the roster for a running back to replace Blount – Houston or Grey would seem to be the favorites for the short yardage/change-of-pace duties behind Ridley, but nothing is set in stone.

With the evolution of the game toward more passing offense, there’s certainly an argument to be made for the kind of value that White and Finch could bring as well.

Finch especially should be a preseason fan-favorite. He’ll get plenty of carries and likely splash some shifty explosion.

If Ridley or Vereen falter, the Pats could have an entire new look in their offensive backfield this season but they’ve got some promising talent that should do fine running behind a veteran offensive line and lighter boxes that are respecting Tom Brady’s passing game.

Previously:

Quarterbacks

Patriots Training Camp Preview: Quarterbacks

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Welcome to part one of our Patriots Training Camp preview that will feature an in-depth look at each position on the roster and what we’ll be looking for in training camp along with our expectations going into the season.

Another Patriots season is upon us, here we go!

The New England Patriots’ offense underwent changes and injuries in 2013. With multiple weapons in their second seasons with Tom Brady, as well as their two top running backs entering contract years, the Pats’ attack is primed be better in 2014. 

Tom Brady has gone through multiple phases of offense during his Patriots career. There was the efficiency years of 2001-2006, the Randy Moss years of 2007-2009, then the high-speed blitzkreig of 2010-2012 with Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Deion Branch and Wes Welker.

Now Brady enters the twilight of his career with two highly-drafted young quarterbacks behind him. Brady should have a few more sure-fire seasons left in him, but what can we expect to see out of Ryan Mallett and Jimmy Garoppolo?

Our training camp preview series kicks off with the quarterbacks.

Quarterback

Of course, this is where we get to talk about Tom Brady. As always, there was plenty of media fodder surrounding Brady this offseason. From reports saying he was on the decline, to others saying he had the most impressive year of his career, there is never a lack of discussion surrounding the future Hall of Famer.

At this point in his career some decline if inevitable. But Brady’s strengths – reading defenses and making quick throws to the open receiver, should give him a chance to play possibly into his forties. But Those waiting for Brady to suddenly start throwing bombs downfield left and right will be waiting until Brady retires. That’s not Brady’s game, but that doesn’t matter.

With another year to develop chemistry with his young weaponry, including Danny Amendola, Brady should have a better year statistically in 2014 than he did in 2013. Expect another season of Brady being Brady – sound quarterbacking, some last-minute wins, and another appearance in the playoffs.

The real intrigue at the quarterback position will be between backups Ryan Mallett, entering the final year of his rookie deal, and rookie second-round pick Jimmy Garoppolo.

Garoppolo is the ideal fit to execute the Tom-Brady-version of the New England offense. He’s probably not going to beat out Mallett this summer, but in the long term, as he gets more comfortable playing under center, Garoppolo could very well be a legitimate challenge to Brady by his third year.

Mallett has a superlative arm, but he’s shown lackluster development in the preseason. He just can’t seem to find the touch necessary to make the easy underneath throws that good NFL quarterbacks have to make.

If something were to happen to Brady, the New England offense would have to be tailored to Mallett, with Josh Boyce and Aaron Dobson running Go routes every play.

Garoppolo has a superlative trait of his own – his release. With minimal wind-up and compact power to go with his ability to read defenses, Garoppolo should develop into the kind of quarterback who can excel with receivers like Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola.

The “dink-and-dunk” method of offense can carry a negative connotation, but it’s extremely effective, especially when run at a brisk pace.

Projection:

Brady will see limited time in the preseason, with Ryan Mallett giving the Patriots and 31 other teams a long look.

Mallett can’t sleep on Garoppolo, though it’s still too soon for the rookie to have a legitimate shot at winning the back-up role. Expect the Pats to carry three quarterbacks this season, with Mallett moving on after the season.

Garoppolo fits the Pats’ offensive philosophy better than Mallett does, but Mallett’s experience is too valuable should the unthinkable (cough 2008) happen for this season.