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analysis

Patriots up front with flexibility | Boston Herald

August 22, 2014 by Mike Dussault

Patriots up front with flexibility | Boston Herald

I feel obligated to post any defensive scheme article even if it’s kind of missing the forest for the trees. When I started writing about football it was the defensive schematics that really interested me. Watching how Bill Belichick would rebuild his defense post-2007 was a huge impetus for me to follow and study the team.

Now, seven years later, I feel like I have a pretty good handle on what Belichick does on defense. Around 2011 I realized that 3-4 or 4-3 is not really that big of a deal.

Here’s the simple facts…

1. From 2000 to 2009 the Patriots spent a good chunk of their defensive snaps in the Fairbanks-Bullough 3-4 defense. This 3-4 is a “read-and-react” defense, where the front three “build a wall” by two-gapping and allow the linebackers to make plays. (There are 3-4s like Wade Phillips’ and Dick LeBeau’s that are more “attacking”.)

2. As the game evolved, and passing offenses became more prevalent, the amount of time the Patriots spent in the 3-4 decreased. The pure Fairbanks-Bullough version of it slowly became a specialty package to stop the run. Since 2010 the Patriots are in “sub” defense, with five or more DBs, around 60-65% of the time.

In 2011, due to the lockout, there was limited time to teach the 3-4 defense, so Belichick just used the nickel front (which of course looks like a 4-3) as his teaching defense since that is what they would be in a majority of the snaps anyway.

3. However, the 3-4 remains Belichick’s teaching defense. So it’s what the Pats run in the preseason and training camp to help teach communication and responsibilities. The preseason defensive game plan is as vanilla as it can get, so seeing them in a 3-4 in the summer means little as to what we’re going to get in the fall.

4. The Pats will still run a 3-4 defense but it bears little resemblance to the Fairbanks-Bullough version. Instead of the three down linemen two-gapping, we now have a combination of guys playing single and double gaps. Read this article for more on this.

5. This current “base” defense (which really makes no sense now that we’re really talking only 30-40% of the snaps) is more of a 2-5. This is an effort to get more athletes on the field to stop the pass, instead of big bodies to build a wall and stop the run.

What matters most is gap responsibility, so whether you want to call Ninkovich and Chandler outside linebackers or defensive ends, it doesn’t really make a difference. They are end of the line players and their job remains basically the same whether they’re rushing the passer or dropping into coverage.

The ability to morph between fronts is where the Pats give themselves and advantage.

The game has evolved and so has Bill Belichick’s defense. What has been missing in my estimation is explosive one-gapping defensive tackles like Easley and Jerel Worthy. They had DT’s one-gapping, but often times they were more nose tackle-ish like Wilfork and Kyle Love or defensive end-ish like Tommy Kelly, Brandon Deaderick and Gerard Warren.

Now the Patriots defense has the personnel to literally play any front, or combination of fronts. Believe me when I say this is the first time they’ve EVER had this kind of flexibility. So there’s some truth to the linked Herald to the article.

But still wondering about the 3-4/4-3 debate is an extreme simplification about a minority of the defensive snaps.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: analysis, defense, patriots

Pats Posits: Thoughts on a solid preseason showing vs. Eagles

August 16, 2014 by Mike Dussault

The New England Patriots had a solid showing in their second preseason game of the 2014 summer as the roster battles continue to take shape. Here are some quick-hit thoughts on what stuck out to me.

– Brady is still Brady.

– Hard for a rookie quarterback to be much more impressive than Garoppolo has been in his first two starts. Yes, there’s still a ways for him to go, but his quick release and good decision making continue to shine. He’s an excellent fit for the Patriots’ offensive philosophy.

– All of the Pats’ running backs had their moments, and while I could see them using primarily a three-man rotation of Ridley-Vereen-White, Bolden, Finch and even Jonas Grey made cases for a roster spot with their skillsets.

– The offensive line was actually better than I expected and they weren’t even that consistent. But as we saw with Jordan Devey getting a long look at right guard that the mix-and-matching is still very much in effect. Connolly looks to be in the lead at center so that’s why they’re really trying to find out what they have at right guard. Josh Kline might be the favorite, but once Stork returns could he put Connolly back to guard?

– The advantage of having three really good versatile tackles is the ability to rotate them and use them as tight ends as we saw with Solder. I still think Solder catches a touchdown at some point in his career and if the Pats can’t find tight end depth it might be this season.

– Really like the progress out of LaFell and it will be interesting to see how his and Thompkins snaps get divided up next week, when we can expect to see starters for the first half at least. Dobson better not suffer a setback or it’s just going to get tougher for him to get on the field.

– Defensively it’s hard not to be thrilled that Wilfork and Tommy Kelly look like they haven’t missed a beat. This is incredibly impressive and, with the injuries to Chris Jones and Siliga, incredibly necessary.

– What a summer by Malcolm Butler, who continues to make plays all over the place. Practice, games, it doesn’t matter, Butler is around the ball, picking off passes and forcing fumbles. Will be interesting to see the competition between him and Dennard in the coming weeks. One will likely start the seasons at RCB in place of Browner.

– I’m not reading too much into the safety rotation that featured a number of cornerbacks getting a look on the back end. I think it’s a way to build depth, but it will ultimately be McCourty and a rotating combination of Harmon and Chung depending on the gameplan. Tavon Wilson should still be in the mix as well when he returns, he’s one of the hardest hitters in the secondary. Still, this shows how the game has evolved and it’s more about covering than coming downhill for safeties now.

– There was major concern about tight end and safety coming into camp and the Pats still don’t have an answer in either spot yet.

– I think Will Smith is the top DPR and he’s been underrated by many pundits. Need to focus closer on him in the rewatch. Buchanan and Bequette haven’t impressed me enough to think they’re going to be impact players yet.

– Still not sure how the depth plays out at linebacker. After the starting three I have my concerns. Anderson needs to get healthy, but Fleming and the rest didn’t really stand out to me.

– The starting defense, even with the unknowns at safety, looks imposing. I can’t wait to see them with an actual game plan.

– Again, the 3-4 defense they’re running most of the time is vanilla ice cream. It’s all very straightforward, putting the focus on the player winning a physical battle, without the aid of disguise and misinformation that comes when there’s actually a game plan. If you see a 3-4 defense more than 10% of the snaps this year I’ll be surprised.

– Overall, a good effort with a lot of promising elements and no major concerns. There’s still some questions for sure, but that’s what the preseason is for, to answer them. Next week should be a great test and a prolonged look at the top units.

Filed Under: Pats Posits, Uncategorized Tagged With: 2014, analysis, new england patriots, training camp 2014

Iron Sharpens Iron: Will Revis’ biggest impact for Pats be on Brady?

August 1, 2014 by Mike Dussault

There’s no secret that the New England Patriots defense hasn’t been stellar in recent years.

They’ve certainly had their moments – 2011’s squad with a healthy Andre Carter and Mark Anderson generating the kind of pass rush the Pats have lacked since the late-2000’s. And in 2012/2013, Aqib Talib gave them their first shutdown man-to-man corner since Ty Law.

But the sum of those parts never quite added up to a top-10 defensive unit, usually due in part to injuries. They flash at times, but most often the Patriots won in spite of their defense, not because of them.

I’ve often joked that Tom Brady and the offense must just march up and down the field on the Patriots defense in practice. Especially when you consider the things the Pats defense wasn’t good at – defending the middle of the field, stopping tight ends and running backs – are very much the strengths of the Pats offense in recent years.

But this year the reports out of camp are that the defense is challenging Brady in a way not seen in a long time in Foxboro.

There’s been plenty of speculation of what the acquisitions of Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis, along with the maturation of various other young pieces like Chandler Jones, Devin McCourty and Dont’a Hightower, will mean for the Pats’ competition. But their biggest impact might be for the Patriots offense.

We wrote about it earlier this week and there’s little debate that Brady hasn’t quite had his best outings against the better defenses in the playoffs the last few years.

Could it be that the Patriots defense just hasn’t been able to provide enough of a challenge lately to force Brady to the absolute top of his game?

He certainly was pushed by the veteran dynasty defense in the early-2000’s, so perhaps this could result in more performances like we saw out of Brady in 2004’s AFC Championship, when he cut through a very tough Steelers defense in Pittsburgh like warm butter.

It might be a stretch, but early in camp it’s apparent that Brady hasn’t seen this kind of consistent challenge in practice day after day in a long time. 

Perhaps this is just what Brady and the Pats need to get over the hump against the best defenses.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2014, analysis, new england patriots, tom brady, training camp 2014

Regrouping after one week of Patriots training camp

July 31, 2014 by Mike Dussault

We’re one week into training camp for the New England Patriots, and just one week away from their first preseason game, so it’s time to take a look at what we’ve learned so far about this edition of the Pats.

It’s hard not to be excited, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where the Pats are as healthy as we could’ve hoped headed into camp. Vince Wilfork, Tommy Kelly and Will Smith, all coming off major injuries, appear to be on track for the start of the season.

On the back end, the secondary has been as expected with Revis and Browner leading the way. Browner’s attitude and Revis’ high level of play have already seemed to bring a new swagger to the Pats defense that has been missing for a long time.

There have been reports that the Pats have shown a lot of 3-4 looks but I am not reading too much into that. Remember 3-4 vs. 4-3 is really just semantics and the 3-4 has always been Belichick’s teaching base defense of choice.

While the Pats might run some odd fronts (aka three-man lines) it’s not the same defense we saw in the 00’s where all three will be two-gapping. This will remain a hybrid defense and whether or not Rob Ninkovich is standing up or has his hand in the dirt doesn’t make much of a difference.

Really, it’s more of a 2-5 the Pats run anyway.

What really matters most is the sub-package anyway, as the Pats spent 67 percent of their defensive snaps with five-plus defensive backs in 2013. Reports of a Ninkovich-Will Smith-Wilfork-Chandler front are intriguing, but more intriguing will be when Dominique Easley returns. He should make an instant impact and could be a secret weapon should the Pats decide to take their time, keep him on the PUP list and unleash him after Week 6.

Offensively there are still some reasons for concern. Julian Edelman has picked up where he left off in 2013, making spectacular catches and setting the tone on offense. Facing Revis in camp should only push him to be even better.

Kenbrell Thompkins has also had a good start to camp despite some inconsistency in Wednesday’s practice. Danny Amendola has also looked explosive and it seems like these three will be the go-to guys on the outside. Brandon LaFell had a slow start to camp but has picked it up in recent days. We continue to wait for Aaron Dobson to make his return.

Rob Gronkowski should be ready to go by the start of the season, but the Pats are wisely taking their time with him. How much dropoff (if any) can we expect with Gronk returning from multiple injuries? That remains to be seen. But so far it seems like Gronk is still Gronk and should be ready for real contact by mid-August.

The offensive line has been seeing a lot of rotation and with so many versatile guys, the Pats will have a lot of options and flexibility. However it will also making for some tough decisions. Bryan Stork left practice Tuesday and has missed two practices since. His absence could put a magnifying glass on the center competition between 2011 starter Dan Connolly and 2012/13 starter Ryan Wendell.

Perhaps most exciting on offense has been the performance of the running backs, especially rookie James White, who has stood out with explosiveness and pass-catching savvy. He could make a devastation combination with Shane Vereen should the Pats look to employ a two-back passing set.

So far the Pats have seemed to have good luck on the health front and it’s vital that that continues. Stork has been the only significant injury issue, though we are still in the dark as to the severity.

Overall, the defense seems on track to be the best unit we’ve seen since 2007, and probably even better than that older squad. The offense seems to have taken strides since 2013, but questions will remain until the regular season starts. They do seem to have some additional weapons this year that they lacked last year. Can Thompkins keep up his high level of offseason play during the regular season? That’s still a question mark.

Next week’s preseason game will tell us even more about where the Pats are at, but so far, they look primed to make another run at Super Bowl number four. There’s plenty to be excited about once again in Foxboro.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2014, analysis, new england patriots, patriots, pats, training camp 2014

Patriots Training Camp Preview: Safety

July 23, 2014 by Mike Dussault

The New England Patriots finally found an answer at safety in 2013 in Devin McCourty, after years of instability and inconsistency at the position. McCourty became just the third player to be named an All Pro at two different positions.

But with the release of Steve Gregory, McCourty will have a new starter next to him in 2014, with second-year player Duron Harmon the favorite to land the role.

But how do the rest of the safeties match up should injuries strike? Here’s our final training camp positional preview with the safeties.

Devin McCourty is one of the top young safeties in the game. Now entering the final year of his rookie deal, the Patriots have reportedly entered into contract talks and for good reason.

McCourty could only get more expensive as he reaps the benefit of having Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner at cornerback.

Duron Harmon was a surprising third-round pick in 2013, but showed consistency and strong tackling skills as a rookie. While he’s not one of the prototypical strong safeties of a past era, Harmon can play on the back end or in the box.

Is he the proverbial “enforcer” that many Patriots fans have been clamoring for since Rodney Harrison retired? No, but the Patriots prefer a balanced back end approach anyway. Harmon has good range and seems like a good fit for Belichick’s style. That’s probably why he drafted him so high, right?

The Pats also brought back Patrick Chung, who spent 2013 with the Eagles. Chung should contribute on special teams and has the demeanor to make an impact in the box as a safety if necessary. Chung gets into trouble when asked to play man-to-man or on the back end. But let him come downhill and make tackles and he’ll deliver some heavy hits. He’s also the perfect kind of off-the-field citizen the Pats love.

Tavon Wilson had some promise as a rookie in 2012 after being thrown into the fire early after Steve Gregory was hurt, but Wilson was relegated to special teams-only in 2013. He’s likely facing a make-or-break season.

Nate Ebner has been solid as a special teams player in his first two seasons, even being asked to occasionally fill in on defense. But that’s not his specialty and he should once again be a special teams mainstay.

Ebner’s most direct competition might come from Kanorris Davis, who saw spot duty in three games as an undrafted rookie who kicked around from the practice squad to the active roster throughout the 2013 season.

There are some promising rookies looking to make an impact as well, including seventh-round pick Jemea Thomas who has good versatility to play a number of different spots in the secondary.

Shamiel Gary and Travis Hawkins were signed as undrafted rookies and will likely need an injury to make the roster. Both are practice squad candidates. Hawkins is out of Delaware but had an impressive pro day.

Projection:

McCourty is the only lock, while most assume Harmon will get the first shot playing next to him. But if Harmon falters or there’s an injury at the top of the depth chart, things could get dicey rather quickly.

Chung is a good third safety, but if he’s thrust into the starting job he would be a target in coverage. 

There’s interesting unknowns who will likely get long looks. The competition between Wilson, Davis, Gary and Hawkins could be competing for one roster spot. Special teams performance might be what matters most.

If Harmon takes a solid step forward in his sophomore season, he and McCourty might make for the best Patriots safety tandem since the Super Bowl years. And their jobs will only be made easier by the high-quality cornerbacks on the roster.

And really, how much does it matter who plays next to McCourty given the talent in the secondary? But as always, the proven depth is only so thick.

Previously:

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Offensive Line

Tight Ends

Defensive Tackle

Defensive Ends

Linebackers

Cornerbacks

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2014, analysis, devin mccourty, duron harmon, new england patriots, safety, training camp 2014

Patriots Training Camp Preview: Cornerback

July 22, 2014 by Mike Dussault

No other position got the makeover that cornerback did for the New England Patriots this offseason. Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner headlines the 2014 free agent class and instantly give the Pats their best secondary since the dynasty years.

But how will the trickle down effect play out for talented young corners like Logan Ryan and Alfonzo Dennard? And where does Kyle Arrington fit in?

Our training camp preview series continues with a look at a reloaded cornerback group.

Starting with Darrelle Revis, arguably the best cornerback in the NFL, seems like a good place to begin. The Patriots had plenty of battles with Revis from 2007 to 2012, with him being a big part of the Jets going 3-2 against the Pats from 2009-2010.

Revis enters 2014 with something to prove after spending 2013 getting fully comfortable  post-ACL tear. Some think Revis was a little misused in Tampa Bay as well.

Bill Belichick won’t misuse Revis. Now, a full two years removed from his ACL injury, Revis should lay claim to being the top cover corner in the NFL once again and that’s a very good thing for the Patriots.

Revis can effectively take any receiver out of the game and we can expect Bill Belichick will move him around to take away the opposing offense’s strength.

Brandon Browner coming to New England was somewhat unexpected, as Browner will miss the first four games of the season due to suspension. Together, he and Revis give the Pats their most physically imposing cornerback tandem perhaps ever. 

Browner’s superlative height makes him a good tool for the ever-growing array of big X-receivers. This year the Pats will face AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall and Demaryius Thomas among others. Browner and Revis will have their work cut out for them, however Belichick divides responsibilities up.

Kyle Arrington will once again return to man the slot, known on the Patriots as the “Star” position, one that has effectively grown into a starter’s role. Arrington is durable and physical and, though oft-maligned, did hold Wes Welker to just 8 catches for 69 yards in two games last season.

Alfonzo Dennard has put his legal problems behind him, however offseason shoulder surgery caused him to miss OTAs. Dennard is a tough pest, but with his lack of size he was powerless to stop Demaryius Thomas in the AFC Championship after Aqib Talib went down.

Dennard could be looking at more of a role in the slot, though he hasn’t seen any time there in his first two seasons. It’s possible he could even be part of a rotation with Browner on the outside depending on the matchups. Most pencil him in as the starter until Browner returns in Week 5.

Logan Ryan might have something to say about that. He led the team with five interceptions in 2013, and showed good awareness playing numerous roles in the secondary. He’s also spent some time studying the safety position this offseason, only further building the value he brings.

Ryan could be a real wild card, not only this season but going forward, especially with Revis on what could essentially be a one-year deal. Is there a world where Ryan’s development and rookie contract allow the Pats to let Revis walk in 2015 instead of giving him a monster deal? Perhaps.

Justin Green saw some time in 2013 but will be hard-pressed to find a roster spot this year. First-year player Daxton Swanson and rookie free agent Malcolm Butler stood out in OTAs but might need an injury to strike at the top of the depth chart to make the squad.

Projection:

Expectations for this group are through the roof and understandably so. The press man coverage the Pats have tried to employ the last two seasons now could be truly special in 2014.

Talib had his injury issues, while Dennard was undersized and those two elements held the Pats defense back from hitting the next level. Sure, when both were healthy on, the Pats shut down some good offenses.

But with Revis and Browner in the fold, that now becomes the weekly expectation.  

The Pats have never had this much talented cornerback depth. Yes, they can play press man, but perhaps more importantly they can mix-and-match coverages and responsibilities to their favor. This is when Bill Belichick is at his best.

Previously:

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Offensive Line

Tight Ends

Defensive Tackle

Defensive Ends

Linebackers

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2014, analysis, brandon browner, darrelle revis, new england patriots, training camp 2014

Patriots Training Camp Preview: Linebacker

July 21, 2014 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots lost two linebackers this offseason – Brandon Spikes and Dane Fletcher, and though they didn’t make a splashy addition to replace them this offseason, they still have a promising starting trio remaining. The headline is that defensive signal caller Jerod Mayo returns from a pectoral tear that ended his 2013 season early.

But the depth behind Mayo, Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins is still largely an unknown. With a collection of rookie and veteran free agents, the Pats could find themselves with some new faces at the linebacker position making an impact.

Here’s our preview of the linebackers.

We have to start with Mayo, whose return to the lineup should be a big boost, especially for the pass defense. Mayo makes all the calls and is the leader of the defense. It was surprising the Pats defense was able to hold the fort as well as they did without their captain, but selling out on the pass hurt their run defense.

image

Dont’a Hightower was somewhat overwhelmed early on after Mayo went down, but late in the season Hightower settled in and started making plays.

Speaking of making plays, Jamie Collins was all over the place against the Colts in the divisional round. Collins had shown some potential in the regular season, but burst onto the scene in the playoffs.

Almost everyone is projecting Collins to be a breakout star of 2014. At this point it would almost be more surprising if he wasn’t playing almost every down next to Mayo.

The bigger question is how the Collins-Mayo-Hightower trio will fit together schematically. Mayo had been playing the Will linebacker spot since the 2011 switch to a 4-3 base.

While Hightower seems the best fit to slide to Brandon Spikes’ vacated middle linebacker spot, there were rumors from OTAs that it was Mayo manning the middle with Collins on the weakside and Hightower on the strongside.

How well will the Pats will defend runs up the middle with that personnel? Mayo is at his best in space, and the move would certainly help the pass defense up the seam, but can they hold up without a downhill physical presence like Spikes inside?

Regardless, the Pats have a trio of talented linebackers to start, but behind them are where the real questions come.

The Pats signed veteran James Anderson, a passing down specialist. He should fill some of Dane Fletcher’s former responsibilities and is good insurance for Mayo.

image

Second-year player Steve Beauharnais was one of the many Rutgers rookies last season and showed some promise in the 2013 preseason. He will be under the microscope in training camp and could have an inside track for a bigger role in 2013.

Chris White and Josh Hill are experienced NFL special teamers and there’s always a spot for at least one of those kind of guys.

Ja’Gared Davis and Darius Fleming have pass rush skills and the Pats always have a need for those kind of guys. With some thin depth at defensive end and designated pass rusher, one of them could find a roster spot if they’re able to consistently get after quarterbacks this summer.

Cameron Gordon, Deontae Skinner and Taylor McCuller all have an uphill battle but there always seems to be an undrafted rookie linebacker like Fletcher or Gary Guyton who make the roster. 

Projection:

It will be interesting to see how Mayo, Collins and Hightower are split up situationally. Our best guess is that Mayo and Collins rarely leave the field. Hightower has some pass rush potential and could be used as a blitzer as well.

Behind them there’s a lot of question marks and there’s plenty of room for a couple unknowns to emerge and make an impact.

It will be an interesting area to focus on this summer.

Previously:

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Offensive Line

Tight Ends

Defensive Tackle

Defensive Ends

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: analysis, donta hightower, jamie collins, jerod mayo, linebackers, new england patriots

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