PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

analysis

Patriots Week 1 Kickoff: Miami Dolphins

by

Last Meeting(s): The Patriots and Dolphins had two closely-fought battles last season. In the first meeting in Week 8, the Dolphins raced out to a 17-3 halftime lead in Foxboro. The Patriots clawed their way back in to take a 27-17. The Dolphins had a comeback of their own in Week 15, intercepting Tom Brady in the end zone to preserve a 24-20 win.

Early Outlook: Between the heat in Miami, the usual closeness of Week 1 divisional games, and the history of close games last season between these two teams, it’s hard to think this game won’t go down to the very end.

Notes:

Miami is looking to push the pace on offense, something the Patriots defense should be well-versed in after facing their own offense and the Eagles’ this preseason.

The strength of the Dolphins pass rush is on the edges with Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon, and that matches up well with the Patriots’ strength at tackle. The interior of the Pats offensive line won’t get that stiff of an opening test.

Miami’s feisty cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan and Brent Grimes could be targets to attack with bigger receivers like Dobson, LaFell and Wright.

The Dolphins’ linebackers move well and should be a good matchup for Rob Gronkowski, assuming he plays as BB threw some cold water on that this morning. Getting those LBs matched up on Shane Vereen, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola will be a goal.

Miami’s receivers should put the Pats’ talented secondary to the test immediately. Mike Wallace, Brandon Gibson and Brian Hartline might get the man-on-man matchup throughout the game. Revis-on-Hartline, with Dennard-on-Wallace with McCourty help over top and Arrington-on-Gibson makes sense.

Rookie Ja’Juan James will start at right tackle for the Phins, expect him to get a rotating combination of pass rushers from Chandler Jones to Rob Ninkovich and perhaps even Dominique Easley. This will include the interior of Miami’s line as well. If there’s a recurring theme of Dolphins losses, it’s Tannehill taking a lot of sacks.

Charles Clay is a Patriots-esque weapon and I expect to see plenty of Jamie Collins in coverage on him. 

My five points of emphasis will be coming Friday and we’ll have more links to matchup articles throughout the week as other good takes pop up. 

Notes on the Patriots (initial) 53-Man Roster

by

There are sure to be some more moves coming over the next day or so, but the New England Patriots initial 53-man roster has taken shape with no major surprises (yet).

The biggest thing appears that the Pats wanted to protect 10 offensive linemen. Not all 10 will likely be on the roster by Tuesday, but the Pats prevented another team from swooping in an taking one of their guys at this point. Clearly with much uncertainty upfront, it makes sense to try and hang on to as many guys who are experienced in the system as possible.

Still, Barker or Devey is likely next to go once a long snapper is signed, but it will be easier to get them on the practice squad today/tomorrow than if they had been released on Saturday.

I’ve seen the reports on Sebastian Vollmer potentially moving to guard and I’m not really buying it considering the sole place the report came from and that Vollmer has never played guard before. We’ll see…

I am a little surprised the Pats played it cautious with Ryan Mallett and as Mike Reiss pointed out this morning, perhaps the comp pick they would get for him after he departs next season might’ve factored into it.

Jerel Worthy’s release points to Easley and Chris Jones being ready sooner than later I think. Schematically I think you’ll see Wilfork with Siliga or Jones depending on the game as the inside guys. Vellano rotates in, and Easley is the passing down specialist.

Big question will be who the top DPR (designated pass rusher) is. Might be Buchanan to start but I think it could be Easley before long.

I really hope Wilfork gets a more healthy rotation with Siliga looking primed for a breakout season. They just can’t go back to running Wilfork for 90%-plus of the snaps.

Still not positive how Hightower figures into everything. Yes, he’ll be in the run-stopping defense, but with Mayo and Collins in the mix I don’t know how much he’ll play on passing downs, at least as a linebacker.

Many in the media continue to talk about the 34 defense like it’s a big deal. We’re talking 15% of the snaps tops and I’m still pretty confident we’ll see the same hybrid defense we’ve seen since 2011, with one side playing a one-gapping attacking defense, and the other side of the defense playing a two-gap 34 principal. Chandler/Ninkovich are the edge guys whether they’re standing up or have a hand down. I’d love to stop beating this dead horse, but I guess a lot of observers are lured by simplicity.

Congrats to undrafted rookie Malcolm Butler for making the squad. Now the question is how much he actually plays? Is he above Ryan and Dennard on the depth chart to start opposite Revis? I have my doubts. He could be a gameday inactive until injuries strike, still an impressive story.

Zach Moore really snuck up on me this preseason. I had him pencilled in as a practice squad developmental defensive end, but it looks like he’s got more than that to offer. His dimensions are a lot thicker than someone like Buchanan and he looks a little more capable of (eventually) holding up in the run game. Maybe this is too lofty of a prediction but I don’t think it’s crazy to think we’ll see him get some snaps in relief of Ninkovich at times.

The depth at linebacker is a bit scary and we saw what happened last year when the depth was way thin at defensive tackle and injuries hit hard. Really hope that doesn’t happen this year.

Along those lines Darius Fleming is an interesting player to watch. I’d expect to mostly see him on special teams to start, and how much spelling will Hightower need. Also wondering how many LB spots Fleming can play? Maybe he’ll even be used as an edge rusher.

It’s a lean and mean team and if they can stay healthy they’re one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. But a lot can change from September to January. Can’t wait for the campaign to start next weekend.

New England Patriots 2014 Training Camp Superlatives and Awards

by

As another training camp for the New England Patriots comes to a close, it’s time to take a look back and hand out some awards for those who did or didn’t stand out for the right or wrong reasons.

Undrafted Rookie Star: An undrafted rookie makes the team almost every year and this year certainly won’t be an exception due to the exceptional play of cornerback Malcolm Butler. Rarely did a practice or game pass where Butler wasn’t making plays on the ball. Butler is a near-lock to make the roster.

Biggest Surprise(s): The immediate return to health of Vince Wilfork and Rob Gronkowski has been one of the nicest surprises of camp. Usually players coming off major injuries like a torn ACL or Achilles start out on the PUP list, but both of these major injury concerns appear to be on track for the season opener. Wilfork still shows great get-off and almost appears refreshed after the season off.

The “They are what they are” award: What can you say about Tom Brady and Darrelle Revis that hasn’t been said. They are two of the best players in the NFL today and they continued to prove it this summer. It should be a thrill to watch these two this fall.

The “Brady’s Window Storyline Killer” Award: I never really subscribed to Tom Brady’s window being a major impetus for the decisions the Patriots make. Now with Jimmy Garoppolo showing real promise it should put that angle to rest. Now it can just be about building the best team possible for now and the long term, regardless of when the Brady-to-Garoppolo transition happens (which is how it kind of always was anyways).

The “You’re Not Helping Yourself” Award: Stevan Ridley put the ball on the turf against the Eagles and though it may or may not have been a fumble, he’s certainly not helping himself to put his ball security questions behind him. Mike Reiss even speculated last week that Ridley could be cut. That’s a long shot, but Ridley really needs to hold on to the ball this season if he wants another contract from New England.

The “Will Someone Please Step Up” Award: Seems like heading into the regular season the door is still wide open for the safety spot next to McCourty. It seems to make sense that some combination of Duron Harmon/Patrick Chung/Tavon Wilson will rotate depending on circumstances, but right now this looks like the weak point in the Pats starting defense.

The “Buzz Kill” Award: Last year at this time Chris Jones and Sealver Siliga were not even on the roster, yet by January they were important cogs to the Patriots defense with long-term potential. Both sustained injuries that don’t appear to be serious, but they were pencilled in to be important parts of the Pats’ DL rotation. Siliga has been back at practice while Jones remains out. Once both are back up to speed the Pats defensive line will get a major boost.

The “Look Out NFL” Award: I’m giving this one to Jamie Collins and Dominique Easley because these two players are exactly what the Pats’ defense has been missing. They embody what every defense needs these days – athletic linebackers who can cover and explosive interior defensive linemen who can cause instant chaos in the quarterbacks lap. If both live up to their potential these two guys could be huge keys to the Pats’ fortunes.

The “It’s About Time, But Still Too Late” Award: Ryan Mallett hadn’t shown me much in his previous preseasons, but against the Eagles he finally showed the potential I’ve been looking for. He’s still not a great fit for the offense New England has built, but he certainly looks like he’ll get a shot somewhere else next season. Unfortunately it didn’t come sooner to help the Pats trade him while he still had value to them. I remain skeptical that Mallett will make the team.

The Giant Question Mark Award: We didn’t seen much out of Aaron Dobson after his breakout game against the Steelers just before the bye last season. Can he live up to his draft status? Rumors are that the Pats still have high hopes for him, but can he make a Year 2 jump? It’s still a huge unknown that will have great impact on the Pats’ offensive potential. He really needed that touchdown grab that he got against the Giants and looked strong and decisive. Opponents might not know what’s about to hit them with a new and improved Dobson.

The “Don’t Get Hurt” Award: Gotta split this one up five ways between defensive ends Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones and linebackers Jerod Mayo, Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower. Depth behind all five is pretty thin, especially at defensive end and losing any one of these five will be cause for concern. It’s frighteningly similar to the defensive tackle spot last year and the unthinkable happened there. Hopefully that won’t happen for a second year in a row.

The “Boyce Brigade” Award: This goes to all the huge Josh Boyce fans out there who are assured he’ll make the team. I have no horse in the race. I’d love for him to be good, but I just haven’t seen anything out of him in the last year that gets me excited about him in any role on offense. But he certainly has his fans out there, so this one’s for you.

The Underdog Award: Roy Finch joins an illustrious group of undersized but explosive playmakers trying to carve out a role in the preseason. It’s hard not to root for Finch, but is he ready for an NFL-size pounding? A year on the practice squad might be best for him, but he could use a big performance in the last two preseason games.

The “Stop Teasing Us” Award: This one goes to Kenbrell Thompkins, who had plenty of buzz once again this offseason, yet continues to be inconsistent. Thompkins needs to put it all together and start playing with confidence. If he does that he could be a breakout star on offense. But his inconsistencies might hold him back just enough to let Dobson or Brandon LaFell pass him on the depth chart. 

The “No Idea” Award: I just have no idea what to expect out of Michael Buchanan this season. He could play significant snaps and be a rotational third defensive end, or he could be stuck in a special teams fill-in role once again. Haven’t seen a ton out of him this preseason to get me excited, but there’s really no one to challenge him. Zach Moore seems a year away to me despite a solid showing last night. Jake Bequette is a close second for this award. 

Who to watch in Patriots’ preseason finale

by

The last preseason game is upon us and once again another training camp is behind us. The most important pieces of the Patriots roster should see limited, if any, time in this one, softening our injury concerns.

But there will still be plenty to watch on Thursday night, with Jimmy Garoppolo getting the start for the first time in his young career. Garoppolo is a lock to make the team, but there are plenty others still on the bubble who will want to pop against the Giants.

Here’s our list of who needs the biggest games to avoid the next cut when 22 players currently on the roster must go.

First, the long shots who are likely just on the roster for depth because somebody has to play in the game.

Long Shots (ala likely cuts): Chris Martin (PUP), Braxton Cave, L.T. Tuipulotu, Eathyn Manumaleuna, Shamiel Gary.

Middle of the pack (uphill battle for roster spot, but needs could allow them to slip on): Chris Barker, Steve Maneri, Taylor McCuller, Kanorris Davis.

The Bubble Battles:

Running Back

Brandon Bolden-Roy Finch-Jonas Grey: One of these guys will probably make the team, but who is the best compliment to Ridley-Vereen-White? We’ve likely seen Bolden’s ceiling, but he is fairly solid. Finch could be useful as a kick returner, but is he too much like White/Vereen? Grey is the wild card, a powerful back who we can’t quite put our finger on yet. He will be one to focus on.

Linebacker

Darius Fleming looks like a lock, but that doesn’t always mean he is. After him things are unclear – Steve Beauharnais has been solid this summer and Chris White did a good job last season. James Morris and Ja’Gared Davis got long looks last week and will likely play a lot once again. Two of these guys will probably go, but all could be practice squad candidates, especially Morris and Davis. It would be fascinating if one of them snuck on the team.

Safety

Patrick Chung has played a ton this preseason and conventional wisdom tells us he and Duron Harmon will rotate for run and pass downs during the regular season. I also think Chung might not see the field against the better passing teams. But perhaps this was just a long look to see if Chung is better than Tavon Wilson. I’m just not convinced they’re ready to give up on Wilson just yet, and a scenario where Wilson makes the team and Chung does not still seems plausible, or maybe both do. Perhaps Kanorris Davis is a bit of a wild card. Hopefully Wilson plays after sitting last week.

Defensive End

Jake Bequette vs. rookie Zach Moore. Michael Buchanan seems to be a lock, though bringing in an outside DE after cutdowns seems like a very real possibility. Moore could use a year to develop while Bequette has already had two of them. There might be a roster spot for one of them, though both getting cut could also be a very real possibility. Moore has shown promise and would likely make it to the practice squad. The key to making it? Special teams and pass rush.

The offense is pretty close to set, outside of knowing who will be the starting five offensive lineman – my pick Solder-Kline-Wendell-Connolly-Vollmer, but we won’t get any insight into that on Thursday night.

Aaron Dobson could see his first action of the preseason and he’ll want to show something. Regardless, he’s a roster lock.

At this point I’ve seen enough of Garoppolo and Mallett to believe Garoppolo is ready to be the sole back up. Even if Mallett lights it up in limited duty, it won’t change my view. If Garoppolo moves the offense against the Giants top defense it will only cement my thinking even more.

Defensively, there are still some roles to be won in the back end rotation at safety, linebacker and defensive end.

Though the big names likely won’t see much, if any, time, there will still be plenty to watch for.

Patriots Annual Shocker: Logan Mankins sent to Tampa Bay for TE Tim Wright

by

If you’ve been following the Patriots for long, you might be familiar with their penchant for stunning trades during the last week of preseason, usually over Labor Day weekend. The most famous example came in 2009 when they sent Richard Seymour to Oakland.

The trend continued today with the Pats sending starting guard and captain Logan Mankins to the Tamp Bay Buccaneers for move tight end Tim Wright and a fourth-round draft pick.

The move also opens up a bunch of cap space for the Pats.

As that tweet speculates, this could very well be a precursor to an extension for Revis, but the Pats were going to have to deal with Mankins’ contract at some point and they tend to cut ties a year too early rather than a year too late.

The Pats were razor-thin at tight end and really had no move “F” tight end on their roster. Wright should provide another weapon for Tom Brady after picking up 54 catches and five touchdowns as a rookie in 2013.

There is definitely a role for Wright on the Pats.

As for the offensive line, my bet would be that they stick with Connolly at right guard and Ryan Wendell at center as they have the last two seasons, while Josh Kline slips into Makins’ left guard spot. Kline did well there in 2013 against the Ravens and the Pats have never been shy about getting their young offensive linemen in the lineup.

Bryan Stork, Jon Halapio and Jordan Devey should continue to develop and could challenge for starting spots not too far down the line.

Shocking trades and personnel moves are nothing new to Bill Belichick. The first was the famous release of Lawyer Milloy in 2003 and this move with Mankins fits the mold of those that came before – high-priced veterans whose play and value don’t quite match what they’re making.

All eyes should be on Wright this Thursday against the Giants, as well as what the offensive line looks like.

Pats Posits: Notes on the rewatch of a Patriots team that looks primed

by

Had a chance to go back and look at last nights game on an actual TV instead of a jumpy internet feed and I liked what saw even more. 

Here’s some random reflection on what I liked and what’s concerning heading into the season. It’s hard to be too critical, this team is stacked.

Offense

Brady is still Brady. Yay.

Brandon Bolden missed this one, I’m so back and forth on him. One day you’re reading how he’s a core special teams guy, the next he might be injured again. I think the Pats will be fine with Ridley/White/Vereen and it seems like Bolden is what he is.

Hard to believe the offense was this good while completely ignoring the tight end spot. The White-Vereen backfield set will be tough to defend.

I’m 90 percent sure Kenbrell Thompkins is going to have a breakout season. I’m 100 percent sure he’ll have some drops.

The scary part is we don’t even know what Dobson can do. At worst they’ve added a sizable red zone target in LaFell and if Dobson turns out to be be as advertised all the better. Throw Gronk in there too and this is a tough team to defend.

Really have no clue how the offensive line is going to play out. With the injuries it might just make the most sense to start the year off with the line that has started the last two seasons. They have their flaws but they’re pretty reliable. Hopefully one of the young guys elevates in-season and pushing for playing time.

Defense

Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones are two players to be excited about. Both had impressive games. I really can’t wait to see the creative ways Collins is deployed.

Amazing that Wilfork and Tommy Kelly don’t even look like they were injured. So impressed with how they’ve bounced back and it’s a huge relief considering the injuries to Siliga and Jones.

It’s incredible how good Revis is. I am going to enjoy watching him play football this season.

I will not be surprised to see Butler see immediate time in sub-packages.

Chung and Harmon will likely rotate but I could see games (vs. Broncos esp.) where Chung doesn’t see the field. But he’ll be useful against the more physical teams like the Jets.

Small sample size but I liked what I briefly saw of Worthy. I have a roster spot for him, at least until Easley and Chris Jones are back up to speed.

Vellano probably sneaks on too, but just until Siliga is back. Seeing a Wilfork-Kelly-Vellano rotation with Worthy on passing downs to start the season, smattering of Easley and the Siliga and Jones’ returns should be a real boost.

The backup linebackers showed up to me last night – James Morris looked good in space, not taking a lot of false steps, Ja’Gared Davis delivered a big hit, and Darius Fleming looked strong on the end of the line. Steve Beauharnais had an interception and looked solid.

James Anderson seems like a lock, but had another missed tackle in space. But with Collins and Mayo there might not be much chance for him to see the field.

What can we say? The Patriots are once again very good, and how far they go will depend on how healthy they stay. Now let’s just get through the final game without any injuries and get started on the 2014 campaign!