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Patriots vs. Dolphins All-22 Thoughts – Defense Edition

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Finally got to take a look at the All-22 after it posted a day late on Game Rewind and I started with the defense. Not a whole lot was revealed but some things were certainly reinforced.

First, a lot of the focus on the “new” 34 defense has focused on Chandler Jones but other than keeping him from pass drops I didn’t see a ton different than what he was doing last year schematically. He certainly did not have a great game, but I disagree with those who think he was being asked to play the Richard Seymour two-gap role.

34 or 43 or 25 doesn’t really tell you much anyway, it’s more important to see which guys are covering which gaps and I didn’t see Chandler two-gapping much at all, now he’s just being asked to face the tackle consistently like he would be in a run of the mill 43. I went back and looked at last year’s game in Miami to compare and the schematic changes as far as he was concerned were not monumental. It seems they wanted to avoid dropping him into coverage, at least in this one.

I think there hasn’t been enough commentary on WHY the Pats went with the front that they did, and where the real changes happened were with Ninkovich, Hightower, Mayo and Collins.

Collins playing strongside inside linebacker is a tough fit. He’s great in space, but coming downhill to make tackles does not seem to be his specialty and it’s one of the big risks of letting Spikes go. Essentially Collins is the anti-Spikes on the field in both the positive and negative ways. He needs to be better getting off blocks as well. Mayo isn’t much better coming downhill through traffic.

What we’re not seeing from this odd front is “building the wall” as they used to put it, to let the LBs run free. The nose is two-gapping, but the linebackers and defensive ends are keeping single gap responsibility with the help of the strong safety. 

Might be too early to say this for sure, but it would seem there’s an effort to get Hightower out there more than Ninkovich. And I really thought Hightower had a good game outside of a few bad plays. As much as we’ve all come to love Ninkovich it’s not that hard to believe that Hightower has the higher ceiling. But who knows, things could change up and have Ninkovich not coming off the field. Certainly could happen with Adrian Peterson on tap.

Vellano is overmatched and the sooner he’s replaced by any of the other DL the better. I think a four-man rotation of Wilfork-Siliga-Jones-Easley is fine for inside. 

Again I liked what I saw out of Easley. Good explosion and had some drive even when double teamed. There weren’t many third-and-longs in this one, but once the defense starts tackling on first and second down, then I think we’ll really see some special stuff from Easley.

Wilfork had some really solid plays and I continue to be amazed by how quickly he’s still getting off the ball. With some experience and a better rotation this season, he should be effective for a full 60 minutes.

As I’ve said a few times in the last few days, the mistakes of missed tackles just added up. Multiple times they had plays sniffed out in the backfield only to let the running back slip away and gain at least four yards. Wrap up, make those tackles, and it’s a totally different game. This kind of performance is not entirely shocking given all the elements in this one – weather, conditioning, lack of tackling/full pads in practice now, first game of the year against a divisional opponent.

My biggest concerns are Collins and Mayo on the inside and getting Vellano out of there. Otherwise it’s just about making the plays that they’re already in position to make.

Patriots Week 2 Kickoff: Minnesota Vikings

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Last Meeting: It’s been four long years since the Pats last saw the Vikings on Halloween 2010. The Patriots won 28-18, knocking Brett Favre from the game in the process. Adrian Peterson had just 92 yards on 25 carries, something the Patriots will hope to repeat this weekend.

Early Outlook: The Vikings won on the road in St. Louis last weekend and with two explosive playmakers in Adrian Peterson and Cordarrelle Patterson, but with old friend Matt Cassel at the helm they have their limitations.

Notes: It’s hard to get the stink of the Miami game off and the challenges that the Vikings present are the perfect opportunity to bounce back, but their tackling will be critical.

The Vikings had major success handing the ball off to Patterson, where his speed is on display. It will be on edge players Hightower and Ninkovich to keep him contained.

Mike Zimmer had success against the Pats as the defensive coordinator of the Bengals last year. Doesn’t look like they do anything too exotic which helps in preparation for playing them. I expect him to try to bring pressure up the middle at Brady, something that was a little easier when he had Geno Atkins though the Vikings front seven is still pretty good.

Everson Griffen should be a good challenge at defensive end, but Brian Robison might be the bigger problem.

Sharrif Floyd was one of my favorite players coming out a couple years ago, he was the pre-Easley Easley and he also went to Florida.

Cassel’s arm doesn’t scare me, but his ability to run does. This game should be won in the trenches, not downfield. Though Norv Turner’s offense relies on downfield shots, the back end will have to be ready.

Siliga and Wilfork look like the best combo at DT in this one. Try to prevent the Vikings from running it up the gut every play, which I’m sure they’ll be tempted to do after the Miami tape.

With fairer conditions I think the Pats can pull back on the heavy rotations on both sides of the ball. Would prefer to see them build some continuity with one group.

How about Solder-Cannon-Wendell-Connolly-Vollmer for the whole game and see how it goes?

It was reinforced for me last week that BB will only have Revis follow a receiver if he thinks shutting that one guy down is key. He’ll certainly pick his spots, but a good defense balances man and zone, and with the Vikings’ threats on the ground I think the CBs stay on their respective sides this week as they did in Miami.

This game seems out of the Pats’ comfort zone defensively as they’ve evolved to be more of a pass-stopping defense. Thus it’s a good test and good experience to balance their game.

It sounds simple but if they just tackle they should be fine. They are the more talented team.

3 GIFs That Defined Patriots’ Loss to Dolphins

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On Tuesdays this season I’ll feature a few GIFs that sum up how the game went. Whether they’re big plays or forgettable ones, I’ll try to capture the spirit of the thing.

This first one comes in the third quarter with the Pats holding a lead. Hoomanwanui whiffs as Cameron Wake explodes off the edge, Ridley can’t get over the pick him up and the late rusher makes sure Brady has nowhere to go. For all the criticism and focus on the interior of the line, they weren’t very good on the edges either.

photo hoomansack_zpse7c2d784.gif

On this next one the Pats are already in a hole on second down. 2nd-and-20 is never an easy down and distance but Devey and Solder are beaten cleanly right away and Brady doesn’t even know what happened.

photo sackmia_zps8fe51b89.gif

Finally, one play to sum up the defense’s struggles is this one. Wilfork and Siliga have him the backfield and a stop here would’ve given Brady the chance for a game-winning touchdown drive, but they can’t stop him and the game was effectively sealed.

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As much as I would’ve loved to include Brady’s TD pass to Gronk or the long pass to Edelman those were just quick glimpses of what this team is capable of. I’m sure there will be plenty more of those this season and I hope to be GIFfing all of them.

Stats

Sub: 42 of 74 (41 in nickel, 1 in dime) 
Base: 31 of 74 
Heavy: 1 of 74 

3 WR/1 TE/1 RB – 49 of 86 
2 WR/2 TE/1 RB – 14 of 86 
2 WR/1 TE/1 FB/1 RB – 13 of 86 
3 WR/2 RB – 6 of 86 
3 WR/1 FB/1 RB – 3 of 86 
1 WR/2 TE/1 FB/1 RB – 1 of 86 

Box Score

Pats Posits: September Stinker Now Out of Way?

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Like I usually do with a loss, I like to go back and take a closer look immediately and then put it behind us. What can you say about this game? It was pretty much like all season openers go, especially in the division.

We all remember wins over the Bills in 2009 and 2013 that were just about miracles, and 2009 was at home. Or how about the 2012 loss at home to the Cardinals who wouldn’t win another road game all year.

The month of September is always good for at least one Pats stinker and let’s hope this one was it. And really, this could’ve very well been the toughest divisional game they’ll play all year.

The September stinker might tell you where some of the team’s weaknesses are right now, but the result won’t tell you much about where this team will be at the end of the season.

One loss and a lot of the pundits want to change the scheme or criticize the moves of the offseason. The truth is this was just a sloppy football game in tough conditions, but there was plenty to like about this team and plenty to build on.

Give me sound tackling and a few less avoidable penalties and this is a different game. 

Here are some things that stuck out to me on the rewatch:

Easley played up and down the left side of the defensive line, from 0-technique to 3- and 5- technique, including the only DT on pass rush third down package. At least until Buchanan comes back it seems like he’s their top DPR. Getting Chris Jones back should help manage some of his snaps. But I saw good explosion and disruption from him considering this was his first game action in over a year and first NFL game. I continue to be excited about what he’ll do.

Plenty of 34/43 talk today, but it’s all semantics and the same guys playing no matter if they are standing or have a hand in the dirt. The thing to analyze is where those guys are playing. Chandler Jones at 5-tech is questionable, but he showed he can get to the QB from that spot, he just can’t hit them in the head.

The schematic change was Ninkovich at SOLB and Hightower at WOLB in more of a pass rush role. Ninkovich was coming off in sub-packages and only played 35 of 74 snaps. Is this more a statement about Ninkovich or Hightower? I’m not sure. But Hightower flashed a few times in this new role despite some sizable errors as well.

Solder, Vollmer, Devey, Cannon – they were all bad and sometimes they were beat on simple stunts that should not be a problem to pick up. That goes to communication and experience, both of which were lacking with some many guys rotating and changing positions. They need to find what works and stick with it.

I don’t think there is any question Stork gets a shot at center once he’s healthy. All options must be on the table. I think Devey was out of his league yesterday.

I have my concerns that Mayo is going to struggle moving back inside like we saw in 2009. He seemed less effective having to get off blocks, something the entire defense struggled with. Again, that’s something that will be better as conditioning and experience improve.

I like Joe Vellano’s hustle but he cannot hold the point of attack. The Wilfork/Siliga combo inside is intriguing in base but they’re going to have to be better stopping the run from their sub defense.

Speaking of Siliga, I loved the burst and strength I saw out of him. Once he gets that cast off he should be even more effective, but I thought he was a bright spot.

There was a rotating door at safety, using Arrington and Ryan in over-the-top coverage. McCourty the FS. Harmon (4 snaps only), Chung (47 snaps) in box, even Wilson (22 snaps) all saw time. I think this is BB using his smarter corners in off coverage where they can pattern read and jump routes. The traditional strong safety is a dying breed.

Pats were in “base” 42% of the snaps. They’ve been between 31-40% the last four seasons. It would seem like they’re trying to go back toward more base, at least after one game (which admittedly could be an outlier).

Revis should’ve had a pass defended on the touchdown he gave up. Great play by receiver to hold on to ball. Revis was smooth and in position all afternoon. Hard to find much fault with him, sometime the other team just make great plays to beat great players.

Dennard/Butler gave up some catches, but were feisty and right there. It would appear that Dennard is now firmly over Arrington as an outside corner. Let’s hope he stays healthy.

There were blown tackles everywhere, a sign of how much less tackling there is in training camp. It’s something that will be fixed so I’m not too worried. It was just so frustrating to see guys almost stopped in the backfield only to squirm out of the tackle and pick up positive (and one time scoring) yardage.

LaFell had a bad game but it’s tough to be the new receiver when the QB isn’t trusting the protection. The Pats severely lacked what he and Dobson should be bringing to the party.

Where was Amendola? This is something to monitor. For whatever reason it seems like Brady just doesn’t find him. 

I thought the Pats hid Chung in coverage pretty well. Clearly he brings an attitude and some physicality. It seems almost an attempt to offset some of the loss of Brandon Spikes.

The simplest criticism: Get off blocks, make tackles. Everyone on defense struggled to disengage, especially in the run game. And even when they did, they tended to miss the tackle.

It’s not what anyone wants to hear because it’s not sexy, but everyone just needs to play better. They’re all capable of getting off blocks and wrapping up their tackles, they just weren’t prepared to do it in Miami for whatever reason.

The run defense down the middle will continue to be a spot to watch as Jamie Collins is athletic in space but is not a downhill presence in the run game. He also looked out of gas at the end of the game when the Pats gave up the last long touchdown drive.

As for the offense, the line has to be better. There’s still a lot of talent there and I expect this game to be a good kick in the pants that they need. 

Patriots lose opener in Miami, fall to 0-1 for first time since 2003

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The Patriots dropped their season opener in Miami to the Dolphins, in a game that saw them take nine penalties for 100 yards and give up 200 yards on the ground.

The Pats looked good in the first half, with two sustained touchdown-scoring drives. But they never came out of the locker room in the second half. This drive chart shows how dead they were offensively.

It was fitting that there was a problem with a long snap that started the Pats’ problems. After cutting Danny Aiken last weekend, only to re-sign him Friday wasn’t the best thing for the player and it came back to cost them.

As expected there were a bunch of penalties and missed tackles, those can be cleaned up, but it was still disappointing to see the Patriots play so undisciplined. Miami figured it out and overcame the turnover problems they had in the first half. New England fell apart.

If Miami doesn’t have three giveaways in the first quarter is this game even close?

The run defense up the middle scared me coming into this one, and it looks like I was right to worry. Without Spikes and limited size/depth at defensive tackle, the Pats were gashed over and over in the second half. 

The concerns about the offensive line’s protection were valid and the whole offensive line looked overwhelmed in the second half. Rotating players didn’t seem to help.

Still, it’s just the first game of the season and things are never quite as bad as they may seem. The Pats have a tall task with Adrian Peterson next week though and they’ll have to fix their problems.

But take out the penalties and the missed tackles and there are the makings for a good defense, if only they can stop the run.

Offensively they were off their rhythm in this one for sure, but they’ll find it. They always do.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 1 at Miami

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The New England Patriots open their 2014 season on the road in Miami against the Dolphins, and as all divisional matchups in Week 1 go, this one will be down to the wire.

Season openers are always filled with mistakes, turnovers and general sloppiness. Teams don’t know exactly what to expect, they haven’t been tackling much, and with gameplans that have been in incubation since April, there are always some surprises.

Offensive Strategy: Picking a method of attack is even tougher this season because the Patriots have a great “inventory” (as Brady puts it) of offensive firepower… at least here in Week 1 it looks that way. 

I’m going with what I think will be the bread-and-butter of 2014, 11 personnel as the primary package. Edelman is a constant but the surprise could be a combination of using both LaFell and Dobson on the outside, with Vereen in the backfield. Hooman should be the primary tight end until the red zone, when Gronk (assuming he plays) enters the game.

The key – attacking their undersized corners with the Pats’ big weapons, including Wright. Their linebackers are fast and need to be worn down using the third tackle-as-tight end package.

I’m not worried about pushing the pace of the offense at this point in the season, though I’m sure they’ll hurry up at select moments. But it’s more about execution, especially being on the road and in physically-demanding conditions. 

Defensive Strategy: Expecting a hybrid 34/43 with Wilfork/Vellano in the middle and Ninkovich/Chandler on the edges. Collins/Hightower are the OLBs and should be tasked with Charles Clay, Collins especially. With Mayo in the middle he’ll have an eye on Tannehill.

Man-to-man defense is the easiest coverage to run when there might be some unexpected wrinkles from the Dolphins offense, so let’s put Revis on Wallace, Dennard on Hartline and Arrington on Gibson. Though they’ll rotate, I’d bet Harmon plays more snaps than Chung.

Miami will definitely push the pace so it will be important to keep substitutions to a minimum. Easing Siliga/Easley will be an important rotation on the DL, as will Buchanan/Moore at DE.

Rotating players to stay fresh in the heat might be challenging.

If Revis can neutralize Wallace, the Pats have a numbers advantage against Hartline, Gibson and Clay. That’s what Revis Island brings to the party.

The Dolphins should test the Patriots run defense. I would. No more Brandon Spikes, Hightower likely on the edge and Wilfork coming off an injury should tempt the Dolphins to  really attack the middle of the defense with their ground game. 

Keep Brady off the field. Chew clock. Hang on to the ball. It’s a good game plan vs. 12 if you can do it the entire game. 

Points of Emphasis

1. Clean Football – In a tight game, the mistakes often make the difference and a season opener in tough conditions is prime territory for a sloppy game. We all know the Patriots’ reliance on winning the turnover battle – with a better defense that could change this year – but this week it doesn’t. Playing safe with the ball and being aware of the situation are paramount in a game like this.

2. Attack the Middle of the OL – The Pats finally have the makings of a team whose pass rush must be respected and this is their debut. Expect a rotating number of faces lining up and down the defensive line to attack the interior of the Phins’ OL. Dominique Easley is expected to play and could have an impressive debut even in limited action.

3. Keep Their Heads Spinning on Defense – Tom Brady has a number of unique weapons at his disposal and it will be important to never let Miami get a bead on what they’re trying to do. This will be done by a constantly rotating set of personnel at receiver, tight end and running back. Imagine the difficulty of covering Edelman one snap, Tim Wright the next, then Kenbrell Thompkins the next.

4. Hold the (middle of the) Fort – Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer will have to be at their best against Miami’s talented edge rushers, but they should be up to the task. There have been plenty of questions surrounding the interior of the Pats’ line this offseason and there are even more now after Logan Mankins was dealt. Now is the time for Josh Kline, Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly (and whoever else) to answer those questions.

And can the defense get back to stopping the run like they did before last year? Mayo moving back to middle linebacker is something to watch. 

5. Win – Getting the W is all that matters, no matter how ugly, you’ll take them however you can get them at this time of year. This could be the toughest divisional game of the season and if the Pats can come out of it 1-0 it would a great (and record-tying) start to the season.

Which ten patriots need/will have a breakout season and why did you pick then

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Ten’s a lot but let’s take a stab at it because there are certainly a handful of players that need big years to take the Pats to the next level. 

1. Jamie Collins – Let’s just get him out of the way first because he’s everyone’s breakout player this year. Collins is what every current NFL team needs, super athletic linebackers who can deal with the ever-growing array of big tight ends and slot receivers (usually outside receivers lining up in the slot). Collins very well could find himself a prototype the rest of the league tries to fill this year. I expect him to do just about everything – coverage, blitzing, stopping the run.

2. Dominique Easley – Simply put, the Patriots haven’t had an interior rusher close to Easley since Mike Wright circa early 2010. This is another necessary player for a modern NFL team – chaos causer inside. You can get by with space eaters but if you can’t collapse the pocket just about every QB in the league will step up and complete a pass. Easley has the chance to make the entire front seven better on passing downs, something they desperately need, especially on third down.

3.Devin McCourty – Some might say he broke out last year, but now with this deep secondary around him and quality pass rushers in front of him, McCourty should cement his place as a top back end safety this season.

4. Sealver Siliga – Maybe this is a little too bold, but I think there’s a chance that Siliga eats into a lot of Wilfork’s traditional snaps this year. He really needs to if we’re going to get a few more years out of Wilfork. Siliga was impressive in camp before getting injured. But he has the perfect body type for the middle of this defense and I think he will prove he’s Wilfork’s heir apparent this season.

5. Alfonzo Dennard – Despite the presence of Brandon Browner I still think Dennard will see plenty of snaps this year, and with Revis/Browner/Arrington/McCourty in the secondary, Dennard should be a frequent target of the opposition. He’s my favorite to lead the team in interceptions this season.

6. Bryan Stork – Maybe this is a pick made more with my heart than my head but Stork could singlehandedly improve the offensive line in the middle – something it badly needs. Stork has the size, strength and tenacity to deal with the bevy of interior rushers the Pats will face this season. I think he overtakes Ryan Wendell by November and doesn’t give up the position for the next 5-10 years.

7. Aaron Dobson – It was a small sample size but seeing Dobson’s size and speed in the final preseason game has me excited about his prospects this season. If he can truly become the field-stretch (aka deeeeeep threat) the Pats need, the Pats offense could hit 2007 level.

8. Shane Vereen – It’s all about health. If he stays healthy Vereen will enter the conversation as the top pass-catching back in the NFL.

9. Tim Wright – Wright is a perfect fit for this offense and it was immediately clear why the Pats coveted him. Defenses will have to pick their poison with the Pats’ offense, but I think Wright could be the guy that causes the most matchup problems, just like Hernandez did.

10. Tom Brady – He wasn’t elite last year, right? This year he’ll be elite.