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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 4 at Kansas City Chiefs

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The Patriots conclude the first quarter of their season on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs in Arrowhead, in what should be a good test for a Patriots team that seems to be going in two different directions on either side of the ball.

Last season the Chiefs were one of the teams that scared me. Their controlled short passing game is just the kind that has given the Patriots defense fits in recent years, but the Pats defense is starting to look reborn after a strong start against three admittedly less-than-formidable offenses.

Offensively the talk all week has been focused on the offensive line, leading many to wonder if there will be some changes upfront for the Pats. Once New England gets their blocking solidified, we should expect to see a much-improved squad. But there’s no guarantee that the blocking is easily fixed, they’ll have to prove it on the field and all eyes will be on them in the hostile environment known as Arrowhead.

Offensive Strategy

The one constant through the first three games on offense has been Julian Edelman and he should once again be the go-to target to keep the chains moving. With star Chiefs safety Eric Berry nursing a high ankle sprain, the Pats should be tempted to attack the deep part of the field, something they’ve been less-than-effective with early in the season.

Their best deep threat Aaron Dobson was back on the bench last week after seeing his first action in Week 2. If ever there was a time to push the Dobson deep plan, this could be the week.

But the bigger question is whether or not Tom Brady will have the time. Even the most perfect gameplans are easily destroyed when the pass rush gets to Tom Brady and the Chiefs have two of the best edge rushers in the game in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. They will test Sebastian Vollmer and Nate Solder, the Patriots bookend tackles. Solder especially had one of the worst outings of his career against the Raiders and he will need to bounce back in a big way or Brady could be on his ass a lot.

Dontari Poe is a big space-eating defensive tackle who should test the Patriots interior line as well, whoever they roll out there.

Defensive Strategy

With Sealver Siliga unlikely to play, Vince Wilfork and the edges of the defense will have their work cut out for them. Electric running back Jamaal Charles is expected to play, while fellow Chiefs running back Kniles Davis brings a physical element. 

The Chiefs like to hit the edges of the defense hard, so there will be pressure on Rob Ninkovich, Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower to keep containment. 

The Pats run defense has been much better since the travesty that was Week 1 against the Dolphins, but this should be their toughest test since then. Joe Vellano held up far better against double teams vs. the Raiders than Chris Jones did, so Vellano could start next to Wilfork.

Donnie Avery and Dwayne Bowe should provide a good test for the Patriots pass defense but tight end Travis Kelce might be the most dangerous of them all. Patrick Chung has been effective in coverage thus far against tight ends and seems like the favorite to draw coverage on Kelce. If he’s ineffective, Jamie Collins could be called to action.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Block! – If you’ve read just about any intelligent analysis about the Patriots this week, you know that the offensive line is their biggest team issue right now. What’s frustrating is that the guys who have done it in the past – especially Solder and Vollmer – are not doing it now. They need to be the leaders. Regardless of what kind of personnel changes are made, the offensive line must communicate better and simply play at a higher level –  a level they are capable of. They have a great opportunity to right the ship in a tough place to play. That can make a statement.

2. Bombs Away – The Patriots have needed a vertical element to their passing game for going on five seasons. There’s no question the offense is built around Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski and they will move the ball with those two as the primary receivers. But for the offense to truly hit the next level, they need attack the perimeter of the defense. The chance is there this week, but only if the offensive line gives Brady the time to get off accurate throws. It’s all connected, but a couple shots down the field is just what this team needs.

3. First Down Execution – Part of the problems this year have been slow starts especially at the start of the game and the start of the second half. The play calling was over-thought and put the Patriots in yardage holes early. They need to start better in every sense of the word. On first down and early in each half, they need to set themselves up for success later in the game and on the set of downs.

4. Physicality on Defense – The Dolphins often overwhelmed the Chiefs in Week 3 with pure physicality and the Patriots have the personnel to do the same. Dont’a Hightower and Chandler Jones have had superb starts to their third seasons in the NFL and they’ll have to show that to a national audience on Monday night. The defense has shown that they are not the same old Patriots defense we became accustomed to from 2010-2013, and they must continue to build on the success that they have had against a legitimate NFL offense and probably the best quarterback they’ve seen yet this season.

5. Win: As always, what matters most is getting the win. We’re closing out the first quarter of the season, so the time for experimentation and wondering what the Patriots are good and bad at is coming to a close. This game will tell us a lot about the kind of team the 2014 Pats are, especially after a week where a win felt more like a loss. The entire NFL world will be watching to see if there really are any cracks in the Patriots empire. A convincing win on the road in Kansas City would answer that with a resounding “No”.

Patriots vs. Raiders All 22 Thoughts: Offense Edition

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And now I jump into the All 22 review of the offense, something I’ve been putting off all day. Let’s see if it’s as ugly as I remember…

 Still bugs me that the offense would go shotgun on snap one. The Raiders run defense stunk. Running on the first play of the game is almost expected. How about some play action? At least I like the attempt to get LaFell going right off the bat.

Just a gross first possession and that’s disconcerting because they literally had all week to plan it.

And we’re going to the power run game in possession two, something they should’ve done off the bat. Pretty good success until a holding penalty and they can’t get out of the hole. This sums up their problems right now, one step forward, one step back…

 3rd-and-22 on the second possession, in the words of BB “not what we’re looking for.” And that’s it for the first quarter. No wonder there were boos.

Edelman slips a tackle and picks up a first down early in the second quarter. Nothing seems to be easy right now, just getting that first down required Edelman to make someone miss.

Quick WR screen to Edelman next play illustrates how the Pats can’t really run the same arsenal of screens with their four tackle OL. Cannon and Devey are not getting out in space like Mankins and Neal used to.

This lack of quickness is also generally apparent in the regular run game where Cannon/Devey just don’t get off blocks and into the second level fast enough to spring any big runs.

Again, 3rd-and-7 and Vereen has to break a tackle to pick up the first down. Because an 8 yard route is apparently asking too much right now.

This is called “not biting on play action”. Luckily Edelman draws the PI. First down. Yay.

Gronk being Gronk on his touchdown as he beats a pretty ugly attempt at a double team by Oakland. He’s certainly still the red zone weapon we need.

Gronk plowing into contact near the end of the half is a good sign. This has been a pretty good drive with some good throws by Brady. Glimpses here and there for the offense but it’s taken far too long to show something just now.

Goalline situation at the end of the half is totally FUBAR. Would’ve loved to see a power run right into the end zone but it’s not even close. Vollmer gets juked, allowing the LDE to close down. Hole’s there for a second but closes quickly as no one else gets any push.

Then the bad snap and we’re kicking a field goal. They made some plays in the first half, but nothing was easy except for Gronk’s TD.

Hard to come out of the locker room at the half much worse than this: 3 yard pass, run for 2 yard loss, false start, 5-yard loss on sack, Punt. Yikes. 

Here’s that sack:

It’s 4 Raiders rushing and 5 Patriots protecting, yet both Tuck (91 abusing Devey one-on-one) and Smith (94 taking advantage of poor communication by Solder/Cannon) get to Brady. Just awful. The worst part is how down the OL look after it goes down.

Then they come out and get a false start penalty on the first play of the next drive. That one was on Gronk.

Brady finds LaFell over the middle the next play and that’s something I like. That’s the start they were looking for on the first possession of the first half.

Solder gets pushed into the backfield with one hand by the defensive tackle and he looks as lost as I’ve ever seen him look, physically and mentally. See below for the next play where he’s beaten immediately, Brady hasn’t even handed off the ball yet:

As other All 22 reviews have mentioned Khalil Mack is legit. So quick off the ball and strong. Very much reminds me of Von Miller. He beats Solder cleanly on the next 3rd down for the sack.

Tim Wright makes a grab and it’s nice to see him get involved. Plays like this give me hope, but only if they can figure out how to protect the quarterback.

Pats get to the goal line and move Vollmer over to the left side with Solder to try to get some kind of push and they get none. Ridley might’ve been the better choice than Vereen there.

Gronk drops a TD. Oh well, that rarely happens. Just another example of how off they are right now.

And now Amendola misses a TD grab, the kind that Welker used to be money at. More signs of the times.

At this rate I am not sure if Brady or Edelman could make it through the season healthy. They’re getting killed out there.

Brady finds Gronk on 3rd-and-15 and that’s a nice play with nice protection. Wow, that took all game. Must be because Stork is in there.

Look out, Tommy!! Seriously, this kind of stuff will get Brady killed this year. Note the Solder olay.

Okay, 5:18 left with a chance to seal the game. Let’s see how this goes…

Ridley 1 yard run (at least Stork planted Antonio Smith, first OL aggression I’ve seen today), coverage sack loses 8 yards, LaFell grabs one for 15 yards but it’s not enough and we’re punting. Gross.

Thank Hoodie the defense got the stop at the end to avoid overtime because that really could’ve gone either way.

 This was awful start to finish and I have to say I feel a little worse about the long term outlook of the offensive line. Solder especially is depressing with how bad he played.

At least there were some flashes from some weapons and I think LaFell especially is headed in the right direction. But as I wrote on Monday everything starts with the offensive line and they were horrible in this game.

Patriots vs. Raiders All 22 Thoughts: Defense Edition

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Tuesday afternoon means All 22 review! You really haven’t watched the game until you’ve seen the whole field. I continue to be amazed by the thing I missed and what I pick up watching it. Here comes this weeks defense edition:

Dropping Easley out of rush and into coverage. Reward for his interception?

Seems like they’re getting a little more comfortable using Chung in Cover 2. Smart, can’t be in Cover 1 every time he’s on the field.

Really hope Siliga isn’t out for long, he and Wilfork are a tough combination inside to move. It’s really what makes the Pats run defense go. There’s been plenty of 34/43 talk as there is every year, but the overriding early down philosophy is have two space eaters inside with five athletic players around them who can make plays. 

On Oakland’s 3rd-and-7 conversation on their second possession I’d tally it up to great execution over Logan Ryan not having good coverage. Ryan is physical at the line but Carr gets the ball out on time and the receiver makes a great catch. Maybe Ryan could’ve been a little more physical, but he had the right idea.

Nate Ebner came on in the Pats’ dime defense and drew man coverage on tight end Rivera in the first quarter. Chandler Jones knocked down the pass intended for Rivera, but Ebner was right there and would’ve made the tackle.

Tavon Wilson with a good read and tackle early in the second quarter. Though I’m a bit surprised he isn’t at the Money dime LB spot over Ebner, it’s good they’re getting him involved. He’s a physical player and could be needed if Chung gets hurt.

When Duron Harmon comes on it seems like they like him as the deep safety with McCourty playing up a bit more. 

Another nice play by Ebner on another third down. Covering the running back as he comes out of the backfield, Ebner plants and makes a strong downhill tackle to force the punt. Seeing what they must see in him, though I’m curious if he stays in this role once Collins is fully healthy.

Chandler Jones gives the olay to the tight end trying to block him and makes a tackle in the backfield. What a start to the season by Jones.

I’m not sure Chris Jones can anchor vs. double teams like they’d need him to as a space eater inside. Again, hope Siliga isn’t out long. Jones probably a better fit against passing teams where he can one-gap.

Dont’a Hightower has had a great start to the season as well, but perhaps one of the bigger reasons why is Mayo’s return and his presence in coverage. It’s really freed Hightower up to do a bunch of different things.

Holy Hoodie, Joe Vellano just made a play against the Wildcat in the early third quarter – held his ground, got off the block and made the tackle. Maybe not all is lost with him just yet.

Revis may have given up a catch in the early third quarter on a quick out, but man is he strong. He just held on with one hand and didn’t let go.

Can’t say it enough – Vince Wilfork is a beast. He’s still quick off the ball and driving linemen into the backfield. So so impressive.

Third quarter, Logan Ryan comes on a corner blitz. Don’t see those too often from NE’s defense so it’s worth noting. Pass fell incomplete as the wide receiver didn’t recognize he needed to break off his route.

Three safety look with Harmon/Chung/McCourty in the late third, first time I think we’ve seen that today I think. Nice coverage by Chung on the fullback on a 9 route. Might be a gameplan thing as Oakland started targeting Reece more and more.

Another three safety look on third-and-long, with Ebner playing an underneath zone and Harmon deep. Ebner with the tackle. He does close hard.

Not a great rush from Easley on this play either, he was one on one with the center. He needs to win that matchup and I think he will as the season progresses.

Collins clearly not 100 percent at the start of the fourth quarter. Looking stiff as he read a screen but couldn’t break through the blockers to stop it. He comes off next snap.

Another solid play by Vellano on 3rd-and-1 holding his ground. Surprised that he played a lot better than I noticed during the game, albeit in limited duty.

Logan Ryan might’ve been picked on in this game, but I will say this, he’s right there on every completion he gives up and the tackles come immediately. Far cry from what we’ve seen in recent years from Pats DBs.

McFadden picks up 10 yards on the Raiders’ final drive as Chris Jones gets pummeled out of the way. These are the kind of plays that Jones isn’t the best to defend. Wilfork comes in for him next play, while Vellano gets in on the tackle. If Siliga is out Wilfork/Vellano double nose might be the way to go.

Wilfork seals it with the interception. What a game for him!

Three GIFs That Defined Patriots win over Raiders

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It was (looking like) the best of times and the worst of times after the Patriots squeaker win over the Raiders last Sunday.

On defense there were quite a few different options of plays that defined the game, though one choice was infinitely obvious. Defensively I continue to think things are really coming together and again, defense wins championships. If nothing else I’m ready for a Patriots team that is better on the defensive side of the ball. I mean it’s been a decade since the last time that was true.

Offensively, the Pats can’t get much going and look like the same unit that lacked the necessary dynamics to truly take them to the next level. Things still look just a step off up and down the offense, but given the level of compete on this team, I expect we’ll see them take positive strides forward this coming week.

Here are the three plays that defined the game:

photo gronktd_zps256aba7a.gif

A Gronk TD. Why not? It was just about the only really positive play we saw from the offense, not to mention it saw Gronk beat a double team. That’s a positive sign and as Gronk slowly eases into more and more snaps he should become even more of a factor. Three healthy games down, 16 to go!

photo radiersstop_zps35bbcb56.gif

Possibly my favorite play of the game comes on this 3rd-and-1 in the fourth quarter with the Pats clinging to a four-point lead. I love the number o f hard hits that keep the Raiders from picking up the first down. That kind of swarming defense is just what we need.

photo wilforkint_zps9043f8b9.gif

Finally, and most obviously, comes Vince Wilfork’s interception. I can’t say it enough – it’s just unreal how Wilfork has come off such a major injury and looks just as good as he was before it. If anything it appears the year off did the rest of Wilfork’s body some good. Let’s just hope they can keep him this way for the rest of the season.

Personnel

Offense

3 WR/1 TE/1 RB – 32 of 73 
2 WR/2 TE/1 RB – 30 of 73 
2 WR/1 TE/1 FB/1 RB – 6 of 73 
2 WR/1 TE/2 RB – 2 of 73 
3 WR/1 FB/1 RB – 1 of 73 
3 WR/2 RB – 1 of 73 
3 TE/1 FB/1 RB – 1 of 73 

Defense

Base: 30 of 60 

Sub: 30 of 60 (20 in nickel/10 in dime) 

2 WR/1 TE/1 FB/ 1 RB – base 4-3 
2 WR/2 TE/1 RB – base 4-3 
3 WR/1 TE/1 RB – nickel – Arrington (short yardage); dime (longer yardage) 
1 WR/2 TE/1 FB/1 RB – base 5-2 
3 WR/1 FB/1 RB – base 4-3 and big nickel

Previous Three GIFs:

@ Minnesota Vikings

@ Miami Dolphins

Pats Posits: Offense’s start is carbon copy of 2013

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I was about to write some snap reactions last night, but maybe because I was sick or maybe because I just didn’t feel like writing about such an annoying game, I put it off until this morning.

So now everyone has an opinion and a lot of them are valid, while some are not – looking at you ‘the 3-4 doesn’t work’ guy. I really try to reserve judgement until after the first quarter of the season, so while we’re certainly close to that, I don’t want to be a chicken little just yet.

Let’s start with the positive – the defense. Was it perfect yesterday? Nope. Did Revis look like a guy we should back up the money truck for this offseason? Nope. Was there enough pass rush? Not even close. But is this still the most promising defense since the mid-2000s? Absolutely.

Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower are playing off the charts right now. Vince Wilfork hasn’t missed a beat. The run defense has solidified after looking non-existent in week one. They’re not giving up big plays. They’re tackling much better.

Things are trending upward and I think once we get Revis against the top wide receivers he’ll face in the coming weeks, we’ll have a better sense of his worth.

The Siliga injury hurts and puts more pressure on Wilfork, which we certainly don’t need. I thought Chris Jones looked pretty good playing just under half the defensive snaps. Easley is still coming along, but it’s clear the Pats drafted a designated pass rusher in the first round and I’m glad. It’s just a matter of time before he starts making impact plays, I really believe it.

Get Dennard and Browner back and then let’s see what this defense looks like, but again, I think they’re headed in the right direction.

Okay, let’s turn the page to everyone’s favorite topic today – the offense.

First, a little perspective – things are really not that different than what we saw last year. Check out the stats from 2013 vs. 2014. The area that stands out to me is the difference in yards-per-play, 4.54 in 2013, down to 4.27 this year. 

I think all the problems we’re seeing on offense start (but don’t necessarily end) with the offensive line. Do I still think they can pull it together? Yes. Do I think they had a good enough plan in place this offseason there? No.

One of the major themes of last offseason for me was improving the interior of the offensive line. I thought we were headed in the right direction with the selection of Bryan Stork and Jon Halapio. Then Halapio didn’t even make the practice squad and Mankins was sent packing.

What we’ve been left with is a line with four tackles and a swing interior guy playing center. And the guys who are actually playing the right positions -Solder and Vollmer – haven’t been the stalwart leaders we’ve needed.

By PFF’s count the Pats starting offensive line has given up 8 sacks, 10 QB hits and 20 QB hurries in three games. Yikes.

As the cliche goes, it all starts up front and the Pats have very little getting started up front. Their running game is pedestrian and that just sets up long yardage on second and third. 

Their drives are plodding, fighting for every inch and nothing has been easy. Still they keep fighting like they always do, and that is a testament to the kind of guys this team is loaded with.

The potential is there, but as Tom Brady himself pointed out this morning, Julian Edelman is the only guy on offense playing well.

Now it has looked dreadful to this point but can this group of OL get them back to at least where they were last year? I think so. But the question that is bugging serious Patriots fans right now is can this OL get to and win a Super Bowl? Because let’s face it, that’s what a team that has been to three-straight AFC championships has to do. I’m not so sure right now, but I’m not ready to issue a final verdict just yet.

I think there really should be a trickle-down effect on all the other issues once the offensive line starts building trust with Brady and the rest of the offense. The running game will ease the pass rush and lessen the number of third and longs, which by the way, there were 14 third-and-10-plus in 2013, and there have been 16 this year.

When under duress, it’s hard to fault Brady and the offensive system for sticking with Edelman and Gronk, though I found receptions by LaFell, Wright and Thompkins to be a bit encouraging.

The other problem, and as those who have read this blog for very long know, I’m not one to get on the “play calling” but I think it’s time for the Patriots to adjust to the fact that this isn’t 2011 anymore. 

I can’t say it enough – the hurry-up to a quick run no longer works. They need to focus on execution not speed. And starting the game with three-straight passes, all of which looked mistimed, was ugly.

The 2013 Patriots looked very similar on offense to what we’ve seen through three weeks this season and really, it was injuries that derailed that team just as they were starting to show what an explosive offense they were capable of being. I still have high expectations for this group, but the offensive line must be better.

Maybe that starts with shifting to Solder-Cannon-Stork-Conolly-Vollmer.

Once they fall into place, the rest of the offense will as well.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 3 vs. Oakland Raiders

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The Patriots finally have their home opener Sunday against the 0-2 Raiders! While on paper this might look to be a Pats’ blowout, we’ve seen far too many ugly early-season losses to write in a “W” just yet. Let’s remember this is a Patriots team that lost to the Cardinals at home in 2012. The Cardinals wouldn’t win another road game all year. Figure that one out.

The Pats have been saying all the right things this week – what a legend Charles Woodson is, how good Oakland’s pass defense is, that Derek Carr can make every throw. You know the drill.

But who the opponent is doesn’t really matter, it’s all about focusing on the Patriots and improving. The team has shown glimpses on both sides of the ball, but the consistency has been lacking especially on offense. 

Here’s my strategy and points of emphasis that will hopefully get the Pats to 2-1.

Offensive Strategy

Let’s just start with penalties since the Pats are the second-most penalized team in the NFL. Of course this applies to both sides of the ball, but things were especially ugly on the offensive side of the ball. So many great plays were negated by penalties against the Vikings, it was almost laughable.

But those plays show what this offense is capable of, and if they can play “clean”, they’ll be able to establish some kind of rhythm and momentum. That’s what we haven’t see yet from the offense.

Oakland is giving up 200 rushing yards a game, so that’s a good place to start for a variety reasons. The Pats had a similar game plan last week. Establishing the run allows the offensive line to get comfortable, it puts the defense on their toes and opens them up to play action, and it just sets the physical tone for the game.

While we’d all like to see Tom Brady show some kind of chemistry with one of his newer receivers, ultimately scoring points is what matters most. Chemistry will come as the season progresses and expecting Dobson/LaFell/Thompkins/Wright to suddenly steal the spotlight might be a little too lofty.


Defensive Strategy

Usually, Bill Belichick’s philosophy against young quarterbacks is to play coverage and force continuous execution. Almost always this leads to multiple game-changing turnovers, but sometimes it can backfire. See 2009 vs. Mark Sanchez, 2010 vs. Colt McCoy or even 2011 vs. Dan Orlovsky and the Colts.

But now it would appear the Patriots defense has enough talent to actually cause some disruption with only four rushers. Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Dont’a Hightower should be key, as should Dominique Easley and Chris Jones on passing downs. If those guys are making Derek Carr uncomfortable, it will be nearly impossible for Oakland to win. If Carr has time and establishes a level of comfort an upset is very much possible.

Carr has been fairly balanced in the receivers he’s targeted, with James Jones leading the way so there probably isn’t a need for Revis to shadow anyone. Just playing sound coverage, a strength thus far of the defensive backs, will be key.

Darren McFadden could be a problem if he gets going. I expect the Pats to once again start with Wilfork and Siliga inside for their standard double nose 4-3 run stopping defense. Finally the Pats get a chance to prove they can stop a good NFL running back after the atrocity in Miami.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Ridley Unleashed

With a bottom-ranked Oakland run defense and the way Stevan Ridley ran last week, this could be a career day for the running back in a contract year. Expect some Shane Vereen mixed in as well, and preferably not much Brandon Bolden. If Ridley gets going early it will only help the passing game as well.

2. Play Action Deep Shots

If the ground game is established early, the Patriots could do huge damage with their play action game. Tom Brady is one of the best ball fake quarterbacks ever to play. If Oakland gets too geared up to stop the run, the Pats should take some deep shots, especially at the expense of strong safety Tyvon Branch.

3. Double Nose Run Stoppage

As is the case with most Patriots opponents, their gameplan will likely be focused on keeping the clock moving with their running game and keeping Brady off the field. The focus will be on the Patriots front seven to stop the run and force difficult down-and-distances for Derek Carr.

4. Make Carr go thru progressions

What cannot be allowed to happen is for Carr to find a rhythm with quick completions to his primary targets. Carr can make any throw despite this being his rookie year. If a receiver is open and Carr has time, he’ll make the throw. As mentioned above, the Pats need to bring pressure with four, but they also cannot allow easy completions by playing soft zones. Expect plenty of press man to force Carr to decide who will get off the line of scrimmage and who won’t.

5. Win

There are few easy games on an NFL schedule and this is as close as the Pats will get to an easy one until the end of the year, if/when the playoff positions have already been decided. From after this game until December it’s all divisional rivals and playoff teams, with the explosive offenses of Chicago and Detroit sprinkled in, and there will surely be a couple losses in there. That’s why the Patriots cannot afford to take this one lightly. 

Patriots Week 3 Kickoff: Oakland Raiders

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Last meeting: In 2011, the Patriots gave up 504 yards of offense yet still won 31-19. Wes Welker had 9 catches for 158 yards as the Pats moved to 3-1, en route to a season that would see them lose to the Giants in the Super Bowl. This was prime territory for a pass defense that couldn’t stop a nose bleed. Put it this way – Sergio Brown was the 5th leading tackler on the day.

Early Outlook: The Raiders are 0-2 after losses to the Jets and Texans. It’s the Patriots home opener, and with the Pats offense on the verge of breaking out, the Raiders should have their hands full. It will be hard to not to be overconfident heading into this one.

Notes: Old friend Justin Tuck is back, not that he’s the same player he once was, but it will be interesting seeing how he does against our new-look interior OL.

LB Miles Burris is the lowest ranked defender on the Raiders by PFF, and Andy Benoit of MMQB called him a “liability”. Expect the Pats to attack the weak link.

On paper the Raiders have some big names like Tuck, Carlos Rogers, Antonio Smith and Lamarr Woodley but all are in the red for PFF’s ratings.

PFF has Derek Carr under pressure 33 of 78 dropbacks.

I’d bet BB will be content to rush four. Between Ninkovich, Hightower and Chandler, they should generate pressure. And seven in coverage will likely force Carr into a couple interceptions.

The whole Tony Sparano of it all is slightly concerning because you know, he dropped that whole Wildcat bomb on us in 2008, but really the defense is fine to handle that gimmick now.

Happy it’s the home opener because I think that will help the Pats not look past the Raiders. Every NFL team is dangerous if you don’t take them seriously. Remember losing to the Cardinals in 2012?

Pats are on national TV back-to-back after this one against two pretty good teams. They really need to get the penalties fixed and the offense on track in this one. 

If the Pats take more penalties than the Raiders in this one I will be concerned.