analysis

3 GIFs That Defined Patriots Win Over Broncos

November 4, 2014 by Mike Dussault

A lot of hard choices were made this week when choosing the three GIFs that defined this big win. What about Edelman’s punt return for TD? What about Gronk’s ridiculous catch? What about Ayer’s third down sack?

All of those were impressive plays, and while I think Edelman’s punt return should certainly be in there, I felt these three really were the ones that cemented the game in the Patriots’ favor.

First, we have Ninkovich’s interception which has been broken down all over the internet the last two days. When you look back at the classic Manning vs. Patriots defense games, this interception fits right in. This pick was one of those instant messages that the Patriots were fooling Manning, at least early on, with their coverage schemes. They’d take the lead for good four plays later on a touchdown pass to Edelman.

There’s nothing like extending a lead from 13 points to 20 points just before halftime. Of course, you always need touchdowns vs. Manning, but to pull out a touchdown on third down in the final seconds of the half, was a huge boost to a team that was already rolling. Of course it helps when three defenders follow Gronk, leaving Vereen wide open.

If the Broncos get a touchdown here on their second drive of the second half, things would’ve gotten interesting in a hurry. On their first possession they drive right through the Pats on a six-play, 57-yard touchdown drive. Instead McCourty delivers a knockout blow to Welker’s back and Browner was there to grab the ball as Welker coughed it up. The Pats would score a touchdown on the next play and the blowout was on.

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Pats Posits: Notes on a game experience that will be hard to top

November 4, 2014 by Mike Dussault

I always thought it would be hard to top the fan experience I had in 2006 when I saw the Pats upset the Chargers in the playoffs from about 15 rows in back of the New England bench, but it might’ve just happened on Sunday.

First, a huge thank to NRG who gave us a ton of swag bags and two pairs of tickets to give away. Walking through the lots with my sister Mary, Nick “Fitzy” Stevens, George “the other guy in those funny videos” Kippenhan, and the one and only Jerry Thornton, handing out free stuff, making people’s day and meeting many passionate Patriots fans, it was just awesome.

The Pats could’ve gotten blown out and it still would’ve been a legendary day, but obviously the game ended up topping the pregame.

What more could you ask for out of a game? A blow out of a long-time rival and arguably the best team in the NFL (coming in), interceptions, a punt return TD, multiple fourth-down stops and a ridiculous catch by Gronk. The entire day could not have been scripted better.

I’m still in the afterglow two days later. Glad it’s the bye week so I can draw out breaking down the game without having to turn the page to the next opponent immediately.

Now as for the game, it’s always amazing to me the difference between watching the game on TV and in person. In person you can really see the matchups and strategy unfold a little clearer because you can focus on what you want, like when I saw Chung manned up on Julius Thomas and called the coming touchdown to my sister.

So now everyone comes running back to the Patriots band wagon. Tom Brady for MVP! Pats #1 in the Power Rankings! Yay!

Around here we’ll do our best to Ignore the Noise. The Patriots are good enough to win the Super Bowl, we are assured of that now. But can they put together three perfect games where they get the bounces needed to win the Super Bowl? That’s still a big question mark.

For now let’s just enjoy seeing the team once again overcome significant injuries and turnover and start to round in to shape.

How good are these Patriots really? Offensively, if they stay healthy, they’re just going to keep getting harder to stop. Could the offensive line regress for another game or two and some point? Certainly. And as long as they get that out of their system before the playoffs, the Pats should make another Lombardi run.

What we saw Sunday was a team that is completely tuned in and, for lack of a better phrase “in the zone”. Are the Patriots really that good? Probably not. The game unfolded almost perfectly for them. But they’re certainly not as bad as they looked against the Chiefs either.

So now what do we hope for during the bye week? First and foremost is a chance for all the little nagging dings to heal up. It will also be a chance for Akeem Ayers, Alan Branch and Tim Wright to get even more caught up on the playbook.

It will be a chance to step back schematically and see what’s working and what’s not as well.

I will say this though, this Patriots team is more well-rounded than the’ve been since 2007. They have size and speed and a secondary that can be difference-makers. If they can continue to compensate for the losses of Chandler and Mayo, they could be in position for a bye.

But make no mistake, there’s little margin for error and the schedule is unrelenting. The win over the Broncos was a nice feather in the cap, but the biggest challenges are still coming.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 9 vs. Denver Broncos

October 31, 2014 by Mike Dussault

This one has been circled since the schedule came out in April, and now it’s finally time to enjoy a clash of the two best teams in the NFL. Many are betting the Patriots and Broncos will meet again on the way to the Super Bowl and this game might just decide where it’s played.

This is what football is all about, and a loss will not be detrimental to either team. There’s still time for injuries and recoveries to play out, along with new hot or cold streaks. Both teams could have a far different complexion if they meet again in January.

But for now, at the start of the second half of the season, here’s the game plan.

Offensive Gameplan

Not to oversimplify a gameplan, but this one would seem to be all about the Patriots offensive line. More often than not we can make the case that that is always the biggest key for the Patriots – give Brady time and he’ll carve up any defense.

But if he can never find a rhythm, it could be a long night, just like the AFC Championship game was.

In that one it was Terrence Knighton who gave the interior of the Patriots offense line nightmares.

That was impetus for advocating a rehaul of the center and right guard positions in the offseason. That happened, but not in the way we thought it would. Now it will be two of the same three pieces and a rookie in the middle against the Broncos. Can they do better than they did with Mankins in there in January? It’s a huge question.

But the bigger problem this year has been the play of the tackles, especially Nate Solder, though he has settled down in recent weeks. Still, he and Sebastian Vollmer (and rotational tackle Marcus Cannon) are facing arguably the best one-two edge punch in the NFL this year with Demarcus Ware and Von Miller.

Solder had his problems with Miller last year and will need to bring his best game of the season. Being at home will certainly help him get off the ball, but short, quick pass rushers seem to always give him fits.

If the offensive line holds up, the rest doesn’t really matter. Brady will find whoever is open, whether Aqib Talib and Chris Harris are matching up on Gronk, LaFell or Edelman.

Perhaps the best course of action will be to take advantage of the Broncos interior linebackers with Shane Vereen in the passing game.

Regardless, just give Brady time and everything should fall into place on offense.

Defensive Gameplan

The big question this week is how will the Patriots matchup with the Broncos array of weaponry? This is New England’s best secondary since 2003, one that seems to have been specifically built with beating the Broncos in mind.

I believe that the Patriots will mix things up from down to down. There will be times where Browner and Revis stay on their sides, but I think there will also be third downs where they want to get the specific matchups. Let’s face it, Manning knows how to find the open receiver, so even if the Thomases are taken away, he’ll throw it to Sanders or Welker, or check into a run.

Do the Pats go with a light box and tempt Manning to hand the ball off like he did in last year’s regular season tilt? I’m sure they’ll pick their spots with that as well.

Ultimately there is no definitive matchups that the Pats will push every down. Mixing up against Manning is essential. I expect to see Kyle Arrington back in heavy rotation after being lightly used the last two weeks.

The spot I’m most unsure about is Brandon Browner on Julius Thomas. If Julius splits out wide, it’s a no-brainer. But you can’t expect Browner to go inside and expect him to cover him with every route option on the table.

So when Thomas is inside, expect a linebacker over him with strict orders to destroy him on the line of scrimmage. When he goes outside, he gets Browner.

Revis on Demaryius Thomas seems like a no-brainer for important downs. But I don’t expect Revis to follow Demaryius all over the field, every down.

Arrington has had good success against Welker, but Emmanuel Sanders is a problem. Alfonzo Dennard could be a good physical choice to cover him, but I’d like to see Duron Harmon over the top of him, while Devin McCourty plays a free safety role.

Does Patrick Chung play much in this one? That’s a big question I have. Him in coverage on just about anyone is a mismatch. Thus I’d expect a lot of McCourty-Harmon on the back end, only bringing Chung in if the Broncos run game is effective.

Or perhaps it plays out like the scenario that was discussed this offseason, with Browner and safety help on Demaryius, Revis on Emmanuel Sanders, and a similar plan inside.

But for all the talk of the secondary, this game will be won or lost by the Patriots front seven and how well they A) stop the run from their sub package and B) get enough pressure to disrupt Manning’s throws.

The initial coverage should be effective with the Pats ability to jam at the line of scrimmage. But after that initial disruption it will be up to the likes of Rob Ninovich, Dominique Easley, Akeem Ayers and any blitzing linebackers to get after Manning. No secondary can cover forever. It’s unlikely the Pats will get a bunch of sacks, but the disruption of the pocket and getting Manning just a bit uncomfortable is paramount.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Protect. Tom. Brady. : I don’t care if Peyton Manning puts up 40-plus points and torches our defense, if the offensive line protects Brady he could put up 40-plus as well. Brady has torched the Jack Del Rio defense numerous times in Foxboro. This isn’t Rex Ryan, where we can expect him to take Brady off his game schematically. The only way Brady doesn’t have a good game is if he’s running for his life. With this year’s offensive line that wouldn’t be a surprise. They need a huge game.

2. Find a Pass Rush: The Patriots hopes in this one took a serious blow when they lost their best pass rusher Chandler Jones. Jones was the only semi-consistent pass rushing threat on the Pats early in the season, now they’re going to have to find a consistent pass rush from those who were below him on the depth chart or replacements. Dominique Easley looked impressive early against the Bears as Jones’ replacement, he’ll have his work cut out for him this week. Perhaps Akeem Ayers can generate some pressure on Manning, or defensive tackle Chris Jones, who has shined with some interior rush at certain times. Somehow the Pats have to find some finishers this week. The secondary should give them an extra beat, but it can’t go any longer or else someone will get open.

3. Wilfork Must Dominate: It’s hard to believe the severity of the injury Vince Wilfork suffered last year, he’s bounced back like it never even happened. Wilfork is capable of dominating a game by himself (see 2011 AFCCG), and if he can rise to the occasion this week, especially against the run, the Pats defense will get a huge boost. Last year in the regular season matchup the Pats let the Broncos run all over them. This weekend figures to be similar with gusty winds expected to take some air out of the passing game. If the Pats six-man front in the sub-package gets run all over again, it will be tough to keep pace with the Broncos offense. Wilfork and his defensive tackle rotation must come up huge this week.

4. Balance: The Broncos have a ton of talent on defense in all areas and if the Patriots offense becomes one-dimensional, the Broncos will tee off on them. The key to this is maintaining balance in the running and passing game. Keeping guys like Miller and Ware on their heels is a priority. When they know the pass is coming, that’s when they’re at their best. Can Jonas Grey have a breakout day? That might be a pivotal question for Sunday.

5. Win: 7-2 and a tie breaker for homefield advantage over the Broncos in the playoffs is certainly a nice way to go into the bye, especially for a team that most considered dead and buried just a few weeks ago. You can never rule the Patriots out at home no matter how unstoppable their opponent has looked the last few weeks. We know the Patriots will fight down to the end, but will the injuries to Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo cost them? Or how about the changes on the offensive line? This is the game where we’ll find out.

Patriots vs. Bears All-22 Thoughts: Defense Edition

October 29, 2014 by Mike Dussault

Hard to read too much into this week’s defensive stuff too much with a blowout on for most of the game, but some interesting individual performances from guys like Brandon Browner, Dominique Easley and Darrelle Revis.

Here are my All 22 thoughts…

Deontae Skinner wasn’t even close to tackling Matt Forte on the second play of the game as he met him 1-v-1 in the hole. This play alone might’ve been what precipitated Tuesday’s trade for Jonathan Casillias.

If you’d told me Easley would be playing stand-up defensive end this year I would’ve thought you were crazy, but he was solid drawing a holding penalty after losing contain for a split second.

Early on this was as close to the double nose as you can get with Wilfork and Chris Jones in the middle. Easley’s ability to slide out to defensive end was unexpected and he made another great play, blowing up a screen to get off the field on third down.

Don’t know what it is with Ninkovich losing contain so much the last couple games, but it showed up again as Cutler scrambled for a first down on the second possession.

Loved Browner with the pass breakup against Bennett on third down. That play summed up everything the Pats need from Browner. Press across the board, nowhere for Cutler to go.

Kind of funny that Darrelle Revis’ finger-wagging pass breakup on Brandon Marshall came out of zone coverage. Looks like some additional zone out of three-safety looks for the Pats early in this one. Haven’t seen a lot of that until now, mostly cover 1 or cover 4.

Interesting front here with Chung in a linebacker role and Hightower slipping out to the edge. I like getting Hightower some time on the LOS, he really excels there and can be used for some pass rush.

On Matt Forte’s touchdown reception Collins had no chance. But there was no pressure either and that allowed the easy throw from Cutler.

Again, seeing more Cover-2, perhaps a function of being up 17-0.

Akeem Ayers might’ve gotten the sack, but it was Jamie Collins who threw Forte aside and caused all the problems for Cutler. Collins gets a lot of flack for being out of place as an inside linebacker against the run, but there has been some improvement from him there over the last few weeks. But he deserves credit for plays like this and they need to use him more for this kind of advantage, turning the tables and making running backs take him on.

On Ninkovich’s sack six it was an interesting front of Moore and Easley inside, Ninkovich and Ayers on the edges with Hightower coming on a blitz and making the initial pressure happen.

2nd Half

With a big lead the Pats went did went to 2 and 3 deep zones in the second half. The Bears had some success running against them on the first drive, but I don’t think the Pats really care too much at that point.

Big benefit of a blowout – getting Wilfork some rest and getting the new guys more experience.

Nice inside game from Wilfork and Ninkovich to set up Easley’s sack, as Nink went inside and Wilfork looped outside. Seems like they’ve been trying this and that’s where Ninkovich has been losing contain, because Wilfork doesn’t replace him on the edge. Not sure who to fault there, perhaps it’s a passing down only move.

Not surprising but Easley needs to work on his jams off the line of scrimmage – it’s definitely something he never did in college. But he whiffed on Martellus Bennett as Bennett picked up 34 yards. He was wide open.

Bennett’s touchdown catch a few plays later was impressive with Browner all over him (getting a penalty for it too). While Browner won’t follow a tight end inside, he certainly is a good weapon against big ones when they split out – if he doesn’t hold them of course.

Definitely seems like Logan Ryan has a target on his back when he’s out there. We haven’t seen the same ball skills and zone savvy we saw last year yet.

So hard to really analyze the defense in a blowout like this. They’re just playing soft zone now and keeping everything in front of them. Even the yards on the ground they give up don’t seem to bother them.

After a hot start I think Casey Walker has leveled off a bit. Not making many plays, struggling to get off blocks or split double teams. Getting Siliga back for Detroit (hopefully) will help.

Some more man coverage coming here in the fourth quarter, keeping Cutler on his toes. They had more success going to Bennett than I would like. That worries me a bit with Julius Thomas coming to town.

My take on Brady-Manning

October 28, 2014 by Mike Dussault

It’s Brady-Manning this week which means it will be non-stop “who’s the better quarterback” takes. At least we’re off the “Is Brady declining” discussion now.

I had to give my “hot take” on Brady-Manning last year when I was writing for Bleacher Report. How I really feel is far too simple to warrant an entire article trying antagonize people into clicking and commenting.

Here are my two takes on the current Brady items now.

1. Tom Brady is still good enough to lead his team to a Super Bowl.

2. If given the retroactive choice on whose career I’d want to watch and root for, I would pick Tom Brady’s over Peyton Manning’s.

Is Brady declining? Can Manning play in weather? Who’s the best QB of all-time? What matters more, stats or playoff wins? Who had more weapons? Who had a better defense? Who had better coaching?

You can throw all those arbitrary questions out the window as far as I’m concerned. Football is a team sport and extracting a single player out of the equation and judging how good they really are will never be an exact science, nor will there ever be a definitive answer, so I don’t really care to engage in pointless conversation trying to convince those who will never be convinced.

Being a Manning fan is now divided by two teams and really the story of his career isn’t all that new or interesting to me – bred to be a QB, drafted first, lived up to the hype, lit it up with the same small group of weapons during the regular seasons, but almost always got shut down in the playoffs.

Brady’s career, from a story standpoint, is just far more fascinating to me. We all know the specifics by now – drafted 199th overall, got one chance to be a starting quarterback and never let go of that chance and has developed into one of the best quarterbacks of all-time.

He’s had complete turnover around him multiple times, lost his “favorite” receiver multiple times. Somehow he’s always kept it going no matter what the pieces around him were. And his playoff flameouts were rarely as disappointing as Manning’s.

Both Brady and Manning’s careers are filled with ups and downs and I have a ton of respect for both players. Regardless of the specifics, the majority of their seasons have ended in disappointment, but I’d choose Brady’s disappointments over Manning’s. Along with his three Super Bowl wins of course.

It’s as simple as the underachiever vs. the overacheiver, and the overachiever is just a more interesting and fun story to follow.

Three GIFs That Defined Patriots Win over Bears

October 27, 2014 by Mike Dussault

Sometimes, like last week’s game against the Jets, the key plays come right at the very end of the game. Often is the case in divisional games.

But this week the game was defined in the first couple possessions, with the Pats coming out on fire on both sides of the ball, dictating to the Bears what kind of game this was going to be.

This is exactly what New England needed to do. It was one of my points of emphasis before the game, and even Brandon Browner said it was something the team talked about this week.

Here are the three plays that immediately defined the game.

First, we have the Pats facing a third-and-18 on the Bears first possession. Granted, there were some solid plays prior to this one, but third down has been the big problem for the Pats this year so getting off the field in this spot was a huge win.

The key to it is Dominique Easley, starting in place of Chandler Jones. Instead of just blindly rushing up field, Easley has the awareness to see Matt Forte trying to slip out to catch a screen pass. Easley is having none of that and blows the whole play up. Great start for the rookie and the defense.

Next up we have the first two plays from scrimmage that the Pats ran. First comes a play that essentially told the Bears what they were in for – a whole lot of Brandon LaFell racking up YAC. Then comes a 19-yard run by Jonas Grey that put the Pats inside the red zone. Starting a game off with a big gain in the passing game, then one in the running game is hard to top. Two plays into the game and Bears are already on their heels, exactly as we hoped.

Finally comes a third down stop on the Bears second possession. These are the stops the Pats have not been getting early in the year. They’d be in position to make this play, but would miss the tackle and allow the drive to keep going. Brandon Browner made a handful of plays that made a difference yesterday. If he can continue to make them on third down, we’ll finally see the kind of elite defense we expect.

Previous Three GIFs:

Pats Posits: The Bears are Buried, Bring on the Broncos

October 27, 2014 by Mike Dussault

Just like the yearly September loss to an inferior opponent, the October blowout is another annual tradition for the Patriots. Yesterday’s victim were the Bears, a team that we all knew would close up shop if the Pats got off to a good start.

The Pats got off to a great start and never looked back, proving how an offense can take time to come together – just because they were out of sync last month didn’t mean they weren’t going to put it together.

Now, the ceiling has been set, and that couldn’t have happened at a better time. Had the Pats squeaked one out over the Bears like the did the Jets, nobody would be giving them a chance this weekend.

Suddenly Julian Edelman can disappear for a game and they don’t even miss him. I’ll be interested to see what the Bears did to keep him a non-factor. But I’m really not concerned outside of the drops that continued in this game. Edelman’s is too good to fall off a cliff production-wise. But it’s great to know he’s not the entire offense anymore.

Of course the biggest damage was done by Rob Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell who each had off-the-chart games.

For all the talk of Emmanuel Sanders, give me LaFell for the Patriots every time. His size and run-after-catch ability make him such a perfect fit for the offense. Brady’s been a lot better throwing deep in recent weeks, but I’m not sure he would truly be able to maximize Sanders’ skillset. With LaFell it’s a dream combination.

Gronk’s blocking is catching up with his route running and the rest of the NFL should be on notice – the best tight end in the game is back to reclaim his crown. It’s not surprising that the Pats offensive rise to excellence has coincided with Gronkowksi getting back to his old self.

Jonas Grey ran hard and looked capable yesterday. While injuries always stink, it is fun to see new guys get their shots and especially fun when they take advantage of them. The run blocking still isn’t great, but given what he had to work with, Grey looks like he earned another chance vs. Denver.

Three penalties on Stork… just going to put my fingers in my ears and “alalalalala I can’t hear you he had a concussion alalalalala…”

I thought Dominique Easley finally looked like a first round pick starting at defensive end in place of Chandler Jones. Easley was strong on the edge and picked up his first sack (thanks to Vince) as well. He gave me a lot of reasons for optimism that he could be an effective edge player which is really remarkable considering I was a huge fan of his in the draft but only really projected him as a sub-package interior rusher. Easley seems like he’s so much more than that and he’s only scratching the surface.

Part of me can’t help but feel like the Jerod Mayo era on defense is over and now it will be the Dont’a Hightower era, and I’m actually okay with it. There’s a lot to love about Mayo, and I really don’t want to minimize his value to the team or how good of a player he was, but I’m kind of enjoying the Hightower feel to the defense. He’s just so strong, and even if he’s not as fast as Mayo, he’s a playmaker.

Not sure if there are auditions at slot corner going on right now or if Arrington and Dennard have not been practicing well. Nothing I’ve seen in games has warranted a benching of Arrington. Though with Dennard I love a lot of what he brings but the penalties and untimely catches allowed were consistent problems. Perhaps this was a message to step back and play more consistently and cleaner.

The pass rush wasn’t great yesterday but the coverage came through, including Browner’s two plays on the first two third downs to force punts. Those were game-defining plays and you’ll see one of them pop up in our Three Plays piece later today. As I’ve said, third down is what it’s all about for this defense and yesterday they were really good on third down (4-of-11).

I don’t use the word elite unless absolutely necessary but Brady and Revis are elite. If those guys keep playing at their respective levels, the Pats are going to be a very hard out in the playoffs. If the pass rush comes alive that’s what will put them over the top as a Super Bowl favorite.

Looks like the offensive line is finally settling in, but they’ll have a huge test this weekend. The tackles get Demarcus Ware and Von Miller. The interior gets a chance to prove they won’t get owned by Terrence Knighton like they did in the playoffs.

Finally, I’ll headed to Foxboro for the game this weekend, ready to cross Brady-Manning off my bucket list, but also to throw a tailgate party with tons of giveaways from NRG. Hope to see anyone who’s there stop by. Keep an eye on twitter as we give clues to our location. Those who find us get stuff.