analysis

Pats Posits: I’ll Miss Rex (Kind of, but not really)

December 23, 2014 by Mike Dussault

Waking up to another vacation day, with the Pats locking up homefield advantage and the best overall record in the NFL once again, well, it doesn’t get much better than this. In a way, the season is over and it’s been a successful one, on the level with the best seasons of Bill Belichick’s tenure.

I truly feel the Patriots have as good a shot at the Super Bowl this year as they’ve had. That excites me and scares me.

There will be plenty of time to worry though. For now, let’s wrap up some remaining thoughts from the Jets game. I expected that to be a tough game, but I didn’t think the Pats’ offense would look quite as bad as it did.

Sure, Rex has almost always given Brady problems and the Jets front four are definitely good and Dan Connolly was out, but still… it’s a little unnerving to see them be so ineffective. Their 231 yards was the lowest output of the season.

More on that and all the other takeaways in the Posits:

It was a pretty solid day for the defense, at least when it mattered. They seemed to be playing a little more zone as they’ve done the past two weeks, and without much pass rush, Geno was picking us apart for a good deal of the game.

But the Pats’ defense came through in the clutch, with another great performance (0-3) in the red zone. The Pats are 6th overall in opponent red zone TD percentage, and the best team in the league over the last three games.

They’re 16th overall in third down defense, but 5th in the last three games. So yes, it would seem the Pats’ defense is playing its best ball at the right time of year in the critical situations.

As for the offense, it’s understandable that there are some concerns but the offensive line isn’t a bigger problem to me now than it’s been all this season.

The struggles against the Jets were mostly communication, which is somewhat understandable with the Jets’ complicated blitzes and the inexperience at left guard and center. Connolly hasn’t been great physically, but he does ensure everyone will be on the same page and that is worth a lot.

This season has been a turning point for me, because I’ve ignored special teams too much. They’ve been one of the Patriots’ biggest strengths but I haven’t written enough about them. You look at the games the Pats have won by a thin margin and almost always it was a big special teams play, or even just consistency in the kicking game, that has made a big difference.

There’s no question – the Patriots are incredibly hard to beat at home, and their excellent road play this year has only helped prepare them to win the only road game they could possibly still play – the Super Bowl in Arizona.

I can’t quite wrap my brain around returning to the site of Super Bowl 42. The memory of that game is still burned in my brain and I can’t see that stadium without flashing to David Tyree. While it would be nice to have a shot to rewrite those memories, it’s a little scary too.

After last night, I sure don’t feel as scared of the Broncos as I once was. I don’t want to jump on the “Manning’s lost it” bandwagon, but I think Denver could struggle to get out of the first round, especially if the weather is bad.

We know the Pats can beat any time in the AFC at Gillette Stadium. As for the NFC, let’s just hope it’s a bloodbath.

Look for the Pats to do some resting of players this week against Buffalo. But I’d like to see the offensive line get their house in order against one of the best DLs in the NFL in the Bills.

Here’s to a great regular season! If you only determine your football satisfaction by how the team does in the playoffs you’re almost never going to be satisfied. But this regular season was incredibly satisfying. There were ups and downs, but as the season progressed we saw some of the best all-around football we’ve ever seen in New England.

There doesn’t seem to be that one critical flaw this year like in recent years past – the one thing the Pats were able to hide all year that could come back to bite them in January or February. They have their weaknesses in small specific areas, but this is a balanced team that can beat you any number of ways.

As a defense guy, just getting to watch a defense that can win games again was incredibly satisfying. They’ll have to keep it up in the playoffs, but for now we can relish another superlative season.

GIFs That Defined Patriots Win Over Jets

December 22, 2014 by Mike Dussault

This was a great game with a lot of turns, especially in the second half. The Jets always get up for the Patriots, especially at home, and did a good job of shutting down the Patriots offense.

The Pats won the special teams battle and were able to close it out on offense. That was pretty much the difference.

Here are the plays that defined the win and show the kind of the team the 2014 Patriots are.

We begin with Danny Amendola ’s punt return that set up the Pats’ first touchdown of the game. Amendola needed to step up in Julian Edelman’s absence and he did so both as a receiver and returner.

Red Zone defense might be the defining characteristic of this Patriots defense. Here they face a 3rd-and-7 and are able to get the stop as Hightower correctly diagnosis the handoff and makes the play as the Jets get good push to the side they’re running to.

Here we are again, a third-down stop in the red zone. This time it’s the speed of Jamie Collins that sniffs out the swing pass. In the past, the Patriots did not have the kind of athletes that could make this play. Collins showing great range.

Later in the third quarter, it’s Collins again making the play with an interception 20 yards down the field.

We’re in the red zone again with the Jets inside the 10 yard line, mid-way through the fourth quarter. This time, it’s a relentless pass rush from Chandler Jones and good coverage that puts the Jets in a hole, and eventually leads to a field goal.

The Jets are in Patriots territory once again, posed to take the lead, late in the fourth quarter and it’s third-and-four. That’s as tough a down-and-distance as there is for a defense. The Pats disguise a blitz, but it’s the Jets runningback’s decision to help the tackle instead of blocking Dont’a Hightower that set up the sack. Hightower and Jones are making the big plays in the big moments.

There hasn’t been much offense shown here, because really, there isn’t much to show. But this is the kind of play that you might need in the playoffs. A third-and-1 with the game on the line. The Pats have struggled on third and fourth down short-yardage situations this season.

So to convert this one to seal the win should be a good confidence boost.

Previous Three GIFs:

Patriots Game Plan: Week 16 @ Jets

December 19, 2014 by Mike Dussault

If you haven’t heard, the Patriots are already being pencilled in to face the Packers in the Super Bowl. These last two games against the lowly Jets and Bills, who once again lost the division to the Pats, will have no impact on the Pats’ paper-thin grasp on the top seed in the AFC, so we don’t even really need to tune in. Or do we?

That’s how things probably look to most outside of New England, those who only remember the 45-3 stomping of the Jets in 2010 or the Buttfumble game of Thanksgiving 2012. But in reality, every game between Rex Ryan’s Jets and the Patriots is incredibly close.

The Jets would have beaten the Patriots in Foxboro in Week 7 had the final field goal not been blocked by Chris Jones. Throw out the Buttfumble game and the last four meetings between the two teams have been decided by 11 total points, with two of them going to overtime.

Yes, we can throw records out the window when these two teams meet. Say what you will about Rex Ryan as a head coach, but as a defensive game planner, no one is more adept at giving Tom Brady and the Pats’ offense problems.

This game concerns me and the Pats have a lot to lose. Here’s the gameplan for getting by a very tough road test that some are dubbing “meaningless”.

Offensive Game Plan

As I said in last week’s game plan, by now we know who we are and the strength of the Jets defense (run defense) only encourages the Pats to be who they are – a passing offense that throws to score and runs to win.

Now, there’s certainly something to be said for getting Jonas Grey more involved earlier this week and I’m all for that. But rarely is a game plan more obvious. The Pats should spread the Jets out, making them dig deep into the secondary depth to cover all of New England’s targets.

This means more Shane Vereen, Tim Wright and Danny Amendola, and less Hooman and Develin. And I’m sure no one will complain about that.

The biggest concern, as always, is along the interior of the offensive line where the weak link of the Pats’ offense faces the strength of the Jets’. As I write every week in these game plan articles, it all comes down to protecting Brady, but Sheldon Richardson owning Dan Connolly all game and ruining the Pats offensive game plan is a very-possible recipe for disaster.

Spread the Jets out, get the ball out quick and get an early lead to extinguish any energy they might bring early in this one and the Pats should roll.

Defensive Game Plan

Remember in Week 7, when Revis gave up three catches on four targets, including a 24-yarder to Eric Decker, as the hapless Pats couldn’t get off the field against the Jets and everyone started to question if Revis still had it?

Well, safe to say those days are behind us, but I think Revis will play with something to prove in the Meadowlands. I do think we’ll see the Pats playing more sides in the secondary than staying with specific receivers.

We saw more Cover-3 last week and that should continue this week, especially with how the Pats were burned by Geno Smith tucking and running in the first matchup.

Up front, we gonna do what we do. The Pats now have a lethal dose of pass rushers and space-eaters. And it starts with stopping the run, since the Jets ran wild all over the Pats the first time around.

That shouldn’t be a problem with Wilfork/Branch/Siliga locking things down inside now. Without the running game to lean on, the Jets offense will struggle and that’s when the airtight coverage in the secondary comes into play. That is the strength of the Pats defense and forcing the Jets to play into it is priority one.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Build the Wall: Looking back at Week 7 and the stat that jumps off the page is the Jets’ 218 rushing yards. That led into them being 9-of-16 on third down, as they had manageable distances. This time around Sealver Siliga and Alan Branch are in the mix, along with a fully healthy Chris Jones. The edges are equally important with Ninkovich, Chandler, Ayers and Hightower all having that assignment throughout the game. Stop the run and the Jets offense will wilt.

2. Keep Offense On Time: Rex Ryan’s defense feasts on third-and-longs, where his deception and overloaded blitzes have extra time to get to Tom Brady. How do we avoid third-and-longs? By winning on first and second down. The Pats haven’t been good the last two weeks trying to run on first down, averaging 3.3 yards-per-rush. I’d be fine if they go pass-heavy, but if they do try to “establish the run” Jonas Gray has been far better than Blount running against a base defense, averaging 6.3 yards per first down carry. Whether it’s the quick passing offense or runs with Gray, winning on early downs will be key to mounting scoring drives.

3. Make Geno Throw: The last thing we need is for the Pats’ pass rush to get overzealous, opening up running lanes for Geno Smith. Smith converted three third downs in Week 7 by scrambling. Those kind of drive-extending plays are the worst. I don’t think anyone believes Geno has the kind of accuracy to pick the Pats’ secondary apart. Keep him in the pocket, only rush two if you have to, but make him beat us through the air.

4. 60 Minutes: We’d all love it if the Pats could just turn in two average, injury-free performances and sew up the top seed in the AFC, but neither the Jets nor Buffalo are going to let us off easy. And really, that might be a good thing for the Super Bowl prospects of the Pats. They can’t ease up or their road to Arizona will get much tougher. They’ll have to have all their focus and competitiveness for a full 60 minutes this weekend. Rex will not go down without a fight and his players will want to send him out with a win over their hated rival. The Patriots must be ready for a motivated football team, at least for the first half.

5. Win – This is what it all boils down to. This could be the last time the Pats play a road game until they potentially go to Arizona. That in and of itself is motivation to put a strong exclamation point on this season’s road wins. New England has won against some very good teams on the road this year, and in convincing fashion in Indy. A win puts them one game away from a very advantageous road. That should be all the motivation they need.

Patriots vs. Dolphins All-22 Thoughts: Defense Edition

December 18, 2014 by Mike Dussault

It’s been a crazy week, wrapping up at the real job and getting everything in order for a nice long two-week break. Finally got a chance to look at the All-22 for the Pats defense and they continue to impress me on every level.

The high-round draft picks and high-price free agents are finally all coming together. They have the spectrum of speed and athleticism to physicality and toughness completely covered on all levels and it’s been a lot of fun watching a defense that can dictate, not just hold on.

Here’s what stood out in the All-22 review, defense edition…

Never want to start the game with a 50-yard bomb, but not that surprising given Malcolm Butler was so isolated against Wallace on the left side of the field. Butler misses any jam, then stutter steps again playing the Dig/Out. A better throw and Wallace might’ve been gone.

Zone running plays just weren’t there for the Phins like they were in Week 1, with Vince Wilfork dominating inside to stop the first one.

Third-and-six and the Pats go with a pass rush front, with Chandler at DE and Hightower at OLB. Dolphins go toss left but Hightower is strong on the edge, blowing up the play.

Dolphins have to settle for the field goal, which is blocked by Collins and returned for a TD by Arrington. Such a classic Patriots defense start – give up a big play, then force a turnover for six.

The Chris Jones-Siliga-Wilfork front is a new look for the 34 regular. More zone reads with no success. Pats were ready for those, but also for the play action that came off of them.

Two possessions into the game and we’ve already seen Chandler Jones standing as the edge player, hand down at defensive end and inside as a defensive tackle. They threw him right into the fire and he was clearly ready to go. With the development of Ayers now, the Pats have a lot of athletic options. This just might be the most athletic and versatile the front seven has been since 2005.

Third-and-15, you tell me who’s coming and who’s dropping…

Correct answer is Nink and Ayers dropping on the edges with Collins/Hightower rushing up the gut. Phins actually do a good job picking it up, but Tannehill’s deep shot falls incomplete.

After Brady’s interception, Miami takes over at their own 34, then 29 after a false start.

Best drive of the day by the Dolphins as they had a good mix of runs and passes that found the soft spots in the Pats’ defense. Once again the Patriots stiffened in the red zone, led by a dominant stop for no gain by Siliga on first down.

The Pats swarmed to a bubble screen on second down, that’s the kind of pursuit and aggressiveness that is becoming a trade mark for them.

On third down, Tannehill looked for Clay in the back of the end zone, but he was perfectly covered by McCourty.

Ninkovich got run out of his hole on second down of the next possession, we’ve seen this frequently this year. I think it’s somewhat of a function of the stunts they like to run with him, but they get burned on running plays, often losing the edge.

The Pats are one of the lowest-ranked defenses covering tight ends this year, and as we’ve gone along we’ve seen more of McCourty manning them up. He’s seeing plenty of off-coverage on Charles Clay in this one.

On Harmon’s interception, the Pats showed Cover-1 presnap, but dropped into Cover-2 Man post-snap. Just a too-high throw by Tannehill that Gibson couldn’t corral.

Pats plated a lot more zone in this one it seems, specifically Cover-3, with elements of press bail. This is similar to what the Seahawks did and I think it’s function of not necessarily needing to matchup on the receivers like they did when Revis/Browner fit receiver styles better.

Dont’a Hightower is so fast for his size and so strong. He seems to grow on me every game. Reminder – I’m the guy who left him off my big board because we already had Brandon Spikes. Swing and a miss there, Duss.

Third-and-9, with the Pats up 14-3 and the ball on the Pats’ 35. Pats play pure Cover-2 Man, sending 4 on pass rush. Collins goes out wide to cover Williams out of the backfield, then bites on his double move leaving him with a ton of separation. Williams drops the pass but it was wide open. Some might want to kill Collins for this but it’s about the hardest thing you can ask a linebacker to do, especially when the double move comes right at the stick. Collins has been great this year but let’s not expect him to suddenly be playing perfect cornerback too.

Phins get the ball back just before the 2 minute warning and we all remember what a nightmare the last two minutes of this half were. But this possession was fine, forcing a punt with :47 left.

Miami did take a shot to Matthews in this series, but Butler showed a good ability to flip his hips and run with him. Pass was off but it was a marked improvement from the first play of the game.

After three runs by Vereen that went for a total of 2 yards, the Pats punt back to Miami and a great return by Landry gets them to the New England 35 with :11 seconds left. It was right here that I tweeted “just not a TD”, but of course that’s what happens.

Butler is playing off and does an okay job of flipping and running again, but the throw is dead on and the catch is even better. Great sequence from the Phins before half time that made it seem like this would be a close game.

Second Half

Pats defense puts the clamps down now. Get ready for a bunch of three-and-outs.

First third down – third-and-three – Miami tries a zone run, but Hightower throws the center into the backfield and there’s just nowhere to go.

Miami now down 24-13 as they get the ball back, only for a tipped ball interception by Chung. Chung faked Cover-1 presnap then dropped into Cover-2, but it was Browner’s hit as the ball arrived that sent it into the air for Chung to snag.

Pats score another TD on the next play, now Miami gets it back down 31-13. Chung probably should’ve picked Tannehill’s first pass too.

Third-and-12 now, Miami tries to hit the crosser to Landry but Logan Ryan sticks with him and makes the tackle short of the first down. Good example of a team targeting the guy not named Revis/Browner, but that player making the play.

Pats blitz Ryan on the first play of the next possession, but Tannehill sees it and finds the open Landry for 8 yards. At least they’re still sending blitzers now, like the aggressiveness.

Jamie Collins slices through the line and stops a run for a loss of 4, timing it perfectly and showing the explosiveness he has. Collins and Hightower are such a good 1-2 punch together. I had concerns about them when Mayo went down, but not anymore.

Collins brings the heat on the next play too, handing Siliga a sack in the process.

Miami now in desperation mode and the Pats bust out a 0 DT, 4 Safety look. Don’t see that one very often.

Pats snuff out a 4th-and-18 and this one is pretty much done.

The Patriots defense is as good as it’s been since 2007. Seems like anything they give up is just a perfect (or broken play) by the other team where they hit on it. But once the Pats gets a lock on what the opponent is doing, they are shutting it down in the second half every week.

The coverages are varying more than earlier in the season, as are the usage of pass rushers and droppers. With Chandler back it gives even more options but teams are still being overwhelmed by the strength/speed combo of Hightower and Collins.

As Logan Ryan, Patrick Chung and Malcolm Butler, along with Duron Harmon, play better in coverage, the ceiling for the defense is limitless. They have talent and athleticism at every level and can play any kind of game, mixing and matching their front seven to create advantages.

3 GIFs That Defined Patriots Division-Clinching Win Over Dolphins

December 15, 2014 by Mike Dussault

After a barren first half, there were plenty of plays to choose from in the second half that came to define this game. Had the result gone Miami’s way, the sequence at the end of the first half would have certainly been included in all of its awfulness.

But the Pats came out guns blazing in the second half, and the narrative of the game shifted from what was shaping up to be another down-to-the-wire divisional matchup.

While Brady’s 17-yard scramble was a key moment in the game, it’s already been GIF’d here so we’ll stick to some lesser-shown plays that stood out. But Brady’s run really sparked the team in this one and deserves a lot of credit.

We begin with the first play of the second half. Gronk had no catches in the first half? Well here he is off of play action going for 34 yards, putting him over 1,000 for the season. This play was an immediate message that the Pats weren’t messing around anymore. They kept this momentum going for the rest of the game.

Another thing that changed in the second half was Belichick listening to the pleas on Twitter (I think) and putting Jonas Gray back in the game. Gray finished the game with 11 carries for 62 yards and this was his longest, a gain of 14. Gray just seems to have a strength and burst about him that seems to counter some of the Pats’ OL struggles in the run game. Let’s hope he continues to get more carries, he’s done nothing but play well

Finally, instead of one GIF you get three! All of these play demonstrate the dominance of the Patriots’ front seven, led by the return of Chandler Jones. The Pats can blitz or drop so many guys, all of whom cause different kinds of problems for opposing blockers.

Here the Pats have just one DT and the Dolphins try to run. Chandler Jones shows total dominance over Pouncey, pushing him into the backfield and making the tackle. This pass rush package could be deadly in the playoffs, especially if they can stop the run like this.

This time Chandler has a pure edge rush, getting the sack and forcing the fumble. Chandler was so good in this game I’m left wondering if he even really was hurt, or were they just saving him to unleash him now?

Finally comes a “meet at the quarterback” sack and this one shows what this defense is capable of in terms of disguise. Chandler drops into coverage and Collins blitzes, while Ninkovich wins cleanly off the edge. This demonstrates both winning pass rush via scheme and via pure physicality. All of this is vital to the Patriots’ Super Bowl chances.

Previous Three GIFs:

Pats Posits: Primed Pats Seal Another AFC East

December 15, 2014 by Mike Dussault

Maybe we should’ve expected the Pats to come out flat yesterday given the roller coaster of cross-country flights and big games over the last two weeks. Settling back in against the Dolphins should’ve been motivating after the Week 1 loss, but it’s understandable that the team didn’t have that same fire right out of the gate.

Still, they found their game in the locker room at half time and never looked back, turning what looked like a divisional game that would go down to the wire into a hat-and-t-shirt clinching domination.

The 2014 Patriots are AFC East champions and now there are just two games left to stay healthy and maintain the top seed in the AFC.

Here are my thoughts on yesterday’s win…

Chandler Jones cam back and played a surprising 55 of 78 snaps. As I thought might happen, the Pats used both Chandler and Ayers in a pass rush front, with Chandler shifting inside. I never thought Chandler would be so dominating after an extended injury break, but he showed that while Ayers was a solid fill-in, Chandler is capable of wrecking a game on his own. The rest should put him in position to cause havoc in the playoffs.

Jonas Gray once again sparked the team with his running, showing a burst out of the backfield that neither Blount or Vereen were showing. Still don’t love the run blocking right now, but Gray has an unmistakable ability to get something out of nothing and that’s just what the Pats needed yesterday. Let’s hope we see plenty more of him the next two weeks.

Once again it was the Edelman, Gronk and LaFell show, the best trio of weapons the Pats have had at once since Hernandez/Gronk/Welker in 2011 and 2012. But this group feels even tougher to defense because they challenge a defense on all levels. I continue to hope Wright/Vereen/Amendola can take advantage of the lessened attention, there should be a chance to get those guys a little more involved the next couple weeks.

I don’t know how else to put it – the defense looks primed for a Super Bowl run. The only key is to avoid a major injury in the next two games. Yes, this scares the crap out of me, especially with Rex Ryan facing the Pats for the last time. I don’t want him to give us one last parting “gift” on his way out in the form of an injury. Fingers crossed, but with our luck at the end of the season with injuries the last few years, I’m trying to not think about it.

The defense has given up just 3 points in the second halves of the last three games combined. I think that tells you everything you need to know – that this defense is “elite”. Once they see what is being thrown at them, they adjust and shut it down. This is the best defense since 2004. Period.

The versatility and dynamic use of Hightower/Collins/Ayers/Chandler/Ninkovich has taken the Pats pass rush to the next level. In the old days of the 34, the advantage was you never knew who would blitz. That advantage is back, but now it can come from anywhere, from anyone. The front seven is dripping with a combination of size, strength and athleticism. They will give every offense in the NFL problems.

The Boston Herald reported that Arrington’s injury doesn’t appear to be serious. That’s good. I’m not sure why Malcolm Butler/Logan Ryan/Alfonzo Dennard keep getting sudden starts at the nickel spot, but Arrington is clearly the best and needs to be in there full time for the playoffs.

On to the Jets…

New England Patriots Game Plan: Week 15 vs. Miami Dolphins

December 12, 2014 by Mike Dussault

Sunday is a “hat and t-shirt game”, what more is there to say? With the top seed and the AFC East championship on the line, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots won’t be ready to go for this one.

But divisional games are always interesting, because the teams know each other so well. This game is Miami’s season. Plenty of times AFC East opponents have beaten the Belichick-Brady Pats in September on the road, but beating them in December, in Foxboro when we’re down to the nitty gritty of the season, has been near-impossible.

It might be the last shot for this Miami regime.

This is when the Patriots are at their best and nearly unbeatable without a perfect game. Do the Dolphins have a perfect game in them to sweep the season series against the Pats? I’m not so sure.

Here’s the Pats’ gameplan to sew up their 12th AFC East title in the last 14 seasons.

Offensive Game Plan

Miami is the top-ranked team defending passes to tight ends per Football Outsiders’ DVOA. But they haven’t faced the real Gronk yet, so they’ll be put to the test on Sunday. The Patriots want to be a team that can play any kind of a game, and against teams that struggle to stop the run they can be. But let’s be honest with ourselves, the Patriots are best when they’re throwing the ball, with Brady getting it out quickly.

Against the Chargers they tried to stick with their power run game even when it wasn’t working. There’s no need to try that against an even-better Miami defense.

Offensively, the Pats should go pass/spread-heavy early to loosen up the front seven. The trio of Edelman/Gronk/LaFell are deadly once they get going. The sooner that happens the better. Then, if they can establish a lead, they can work in Blount and Gray. I’d like to see more Jonas Gray this week especially, but in the second half.

Defensive Game Plan

Jarvis Landry didn’t have a catch in week one against the Patriots, but has since emerged as Tannehill’s go-to target. While Revis was on Mike Wallace then, it might make sense to shift him to Landry now. The Pats also didn’t have Brandon Browner the first time, so the question is does he matchup on the bigger Charles Clay, or the faster Wallace with over-the-top help? The Past used linebackers and safeties on Clay last time.

The discipline of edge players Ninkovich and Ayers (and maybe Chandler Jones) is essential to keeping Tannehill beat them from the pocket. The Pats will also look to test the interior of Miami’s line with their Double A Gap blitz looks. The Dolphins should be a good test for what has become a staple of the Pats’ defensive game plans.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Protect Brady: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, because as I’ve said many times, this could effectively be the only key each week. Give Brady time and there’s a very good chance the Pats win. I’m going back to the well on this one because of the problems Miami’s rushers gave New England the first time around.

Granted, that was still in the experimental portion of the season, when our starting guards were Marcus Cannon and Jordan Devey, but the OL hasn’t exactly been lights out as of late. And a poor performance by Nate Solder or Sebastian Vollmer could swing this game heavily in favor of the Dolphins. There might not be a more intriguing matchup that on the edges of the Patriots defense. But all five of them must have their best game of the season.

2. Say Hello to Our New Run Defense: In the first meeting, the Dolphins ran all over the Patriots, piling up 191 yards on the ground. The Pats certainly had their problems stopping the run early in the season, but over the last couple months they’ve settled down. Throw in the fact that Knowshon Moreno is out for the season and the signs seem clear that Miami won’t be able to rely on their running attack to keep the chains moving like they did the first time around. That puts more pressure on Ryan Tannehill to win the game with his arm.

3. Say Hello to Our Fully-Functional Offense: The Patriots had about as bad of second half as a team can have against the Dolphins in Week 1. Rob Gronkowski played just 38 of 86 snaps. Brandon LaFell had zero catches on six targets. Kenbrell Thompkins was tied with Edelman with nine targets for most on the team. So yeah, this is a much different team now, one that shouldn’t have a second half that looks like this:

4. Spy Tannehill: It seems like quarterbacks who can run have given the Patriots defense their biggest problems this year. Pocket passers like Peyton Manning or Phillip Rivers? No problem. Guys who can move like Aarond Rodgers and even Geno Smith, have been able to extend drives against a Patriots front seven who lose contain or an open running lane. Playing quarterbacks like that require the ultimate discipline, with a delicate balance between pass rushing and maintaining lane integrity. Tannehill cannot be allowed to run for first downs on third down. It sounds simple but this will be a challenge.

5. Win: This will be just the fourth AFC East game of the season for the Pats, yet it’s a chance to win the division. That goes to show how poorly the rest of the AFC East has played outside the division. Everyone’s focusing on catching the Patriots, yet it’s always the outside games that doom the Dolphins/Jets/Bills’ seasons.

The lead in the conference is also just a half game, so there is no margin for error. This is without question the hardest remaining game on the schedule. There’s nothing to hold back for, it’s time for the 2014 Patriots to collect their first championship of the season.