analysis

New England Patriots Game Plan: AFC Championship vs. Colts

January 16, 2015 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots are set to take on the Colts for the right to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 49. The conference championships are my favorite games of the season, and with the Pats hosting their third in four years, it doesn’t get much better than this.

The Super Bowl is the big game of course, but its neutral site and over-the-top production give it almost more of an exhibition game feel. These two games on Sunday, with homefield advantage and the elements in full effect, are the two best games of real football in the NFL season.

By now, we’ve heard plenty about how the Patriots have manhandled Andrew Luck in his three games against them, including last year’s AFC Divisional game. In those three games, Luck has six touchdowns and eight interceptions, with a 53.8 completion percentage.

Can New England continue their recent dominance over Luck and the Colts? Or does Indy finally turn the tide? With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, the stakes don’t get much higher.

Here’s my game plan for the Pats to get back to their sixth Super Bowl in the last 14 seasons.

Offensive Game Plan

In the last three games agains the Colts, the Patriots have put up 595 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. This includes 201 yards and four touchdowns by Jonas Gray earlier this season and 166 yards and four touchdowns by LeGarrette Blount in last year’s divisional round.

What does this add up to? Until the Colts prove they can stop the run, there’s no reason not to come out pounding the rock at them once again, even if they’ve been much better against it since the Pats last saw them.

The return of Arthur Jones, Chandler’s big brother, should help the run-stopping effort, but it’s still worth testing early on.

With rainy conditions possible, this will put a huge priority on ball security. So it was no surprise to see Bill Belichick stressing this point earlier this week in practice. Nothing can shift a game quicker than turnovers.

And what if the Colts defense shows up with something to prove against the run, as they probably should? The focus shifts to the passing game where Rob Gronkowski (208 yards on 11 catches, 3 TDs) and Julian Edelman (192 yards on 16 catches and 1 TD) have also been very good against the Colts in the last three games (only two for Gronk, and two and change for Edelman after he last lost after bruising his thigh in Week 11).

The Colts mimicked the Seahawks defensive game plan against the Broncos last week, taking away the medium throws, forcing short passes, which they’d come down hard on, or long throws.

This has been an effective game plan against the Patriots offense in recent years, however the presence of Bradon LaFell and a healthy Gronk no longer makes it ideal. Tom Brady also won’t miss as many throws as Peyton Manning did last week. So the Colts have to pick their poison, and once they do, it’s up to the Pats to force the other down their throat.

The Colts were also the 31st ranked team in Football Outsiders’ DVOA when it came to covering running backs, so perhaps a surprise wrinkle will be some Shane Vereen-centric passing plays.

Defensive Game Plan

The Patriots were defensively dominant over the Colts earlier this season. Can they do it again, or was that just one of those games where one team was just on fire. I’d expect things to be a bit more balanced this time around.

Holding the Colts to just 19 rushing yards in the first meeting was an impressive effort, but the Colts have found more consistency in their ground game since with Dan Herron, though they still seems far from explosive. Herron also draws concern for his pass-catching ability. Expect a heavy dose of Dont’a Hightower on him.

Coby Fleener was one guy who had some success last time around, finishing with 7 catches for 144 yards. He saw some of Brandon Browner last time, and perhaps that makes sense again on certain downs, or maybe using Devin McCourty would be better as well. Fellow tight end threat Dwayne Allen left the last contest early, so the presence of two tight ends who can catch should be a concern for the Patriots.

The statistical weak link of the Patriots pass coverage has been against tight ends, and with dominant outside corners, Fleener and Allen should be a significant part of the gameplan. Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty and Jamie Collins should draw a fair amount of coverage responsibility on them.

What’s clear is that taking away T.Y. Hilton’s explosive over-the-top plays is priority one. Last time, Hilton had just 24 yards on three catches. Replicating that kind of performance might be a tall task, but Hilton has to be a major focus. That’s why it’s likely he sees a lot of Darrelle Revis in this one. Revis was on Reggie Wayne a good chunk of last game, but Wayne’s deteriorating skills no longer require that kind of attention.

At some point, Andrew Luck is going to play a perfect game against the Pats. Even last week’s win over the Broncos featured two interceptions. The Pats cannot wait on a Luck mistake to give them the game. But they have a knack for making them happen in the big games, or at least they used to…

Points of Emphasis

1. Run Until They Stop Us: As mentioned above, the Pats have run wild over the Colts the last three games and until they prove they can stop it, why stop? LeGarrette Blount is now in the mix, which takes away some of the worry of relying on Jonas Gray again in a playoff game, where his ball security worries me. Still Blount can take a bit to get going, so Gray, or even Brandon Bolden could see some carries early. Can the offensive line get it done with Josh Kline in there? That’s a question, but would be a bigger concern if this was going to be a pass-heavy gameplan against some great interior guys. The Pats won’t hesitate to shift to a more pass-heavy approach if the Colts front plays inspired against the run. But until they stop it, run it down their throat. There isn’t a simpler game plan in the world than running at a team who can’t stop it. It drains the clock, opens up the play action game and generally demoralizes a defense. There’s no easier route to victory for New England if their ground game is firing on all cylinders.

2. Nickel Run Defense: The Patriots were in sub defense for most of the first matchup and anytime that is the case, stopping the run with only six in the box is key. With Sealver Siliga and Chandler Jones in the mix after missing the last tilt in Indy, the Pats front looks stronger on paper after playing a mix of Dominique Easley and Chris Jones next to Wilfork. If the Pats start getting gashed in nickel they’ll have to move to a heavier front and that will open them up against the pass. There’s little doubt the Pats best personnel is from the nickel defense. The more they can stay in that, the better off they’ll be. Of course, spying Luck on third downs should be another consideration.

3. Hold Onto the Ball: It was shocking and disgusting that the Patriots put the ball on the turf TWICE in the early going last week against the Ravens. That cannot happen this week, especially with a run-heavy approach. Nothing made me happier than to hear Belichick was out on the practice field trying to pry the ball loose himself this week. We saw last week how quickly a bad turnover can shift the scoreboard. Ball protection is huge.

4. Finish: The final score of the previous matchup this year skews things a bit, but it was a 28-20 game in the fourth quarter before the Pats pulled away. The Colts have plenty of recent history of great and seemingly impossible comebacks. This one won’t be over until it’s over and the Pats cannot get overconfident that they’re rolling to another blowout, even if they get a double-digit lead. 60 minutes to get to the Super Bowl. They’ll need their best effort for the entire length of the game.

5. Win: The Patriots are one game from the Super Bowl, a spot they’ve been in, and underperformed in two of the last three seasons. And even the one AFC Championship they did win, they were generally outplayed. It’s time for the Patriots to put together a dominant AFC Championship game of great football. They’re the better team on paper, but they have to prove it on the field. If they play with that kind of chip on their shoulder, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be headed to Arizona for a shot at ring number four.

GIFs That Defined Patriots AFC Divisional Win Over Ravens

January 13, 2015 by Mike Dussault

This was a back and forth game, with nearly constant swings in momentum. The Patriots dug themselves out of two fourteen point holes and we found ourselves in a tie game at the start of the fourth quarter.

So it’s no surprise that all of these GIFs come from that fourth quarter, with the game on the line. This is where the big plays had to be made, and these four are the ones that got the Patriots the win.

We begin with a third-and-goal early in the fourth, with the Patriots defense having yet to get a red zone stop the entire game. This was a strength of the defense this year, and here they came through in the clutch, which is all that matters.

It should’ve been no surprise that Flacco looked to his tight end in the middle of the field. The Ravens have scored a bunch of touchdowns on this route, including one earlier in the game that the Pats had pretty well-covered. Daniels’ stutter step is enough to open some space behind Collins, but Chung comes through, getting just enough of a hand in to break it up. Forcing a field goal here opened things up for the Pats to finally take their first lead of the game.

Next we have the Patriots on their very next drive after holding the Ravens to a field goal, facing a difficult third-and-6 outside of field goal range. Danny Amendola has gotten plenty of criticism this year, but this play, where he fights off two tacklers to pick up the first down is nothing short of amazing. He should’ve been stopped. The Pats should’ve been punting. But he wasn’t and the drive continued.

Now, after two plays that haven’t gotten much attention, we have two that have gotten plenty. First up is Brady’s game-winning touchdown to Brandon LaFell. I was excited for LaFell in this game all week but he was relatively quiet until this huge play. Just an absolute dime from Brady, who’s long distance accuracy has been fodder for criticism constantly the past five years. Just a money play to the best free agent outside wide receiver acquisition since Randy Moss.

Lastly comes the final interception that all but sealed the game. Duron Harmon has shown great range in his first two seasons and it’s on display here. Credit also has to go to Jamie Collins, whose pass rush forces Flacco to throw off his back foot. That was the ball game.

Find all of the regular season GIFs The Defined… articles here.

Pats Posits: An Epic Game to Spark an Epic Playoff Run?

January 11, 2015 by Mike Dussault

Where do I begin? I guess by saying that this was one of the best football games I’ve ever watched and really, it was a lot closer than I thought it was going to be. Tip of the cap to the Ravens, who, despite being a different team than they were in 2009-2012, played the same way – fearless – and had a great gameplan to attack the Pats’ weaknesses.

But the Patriots did what they do, fought for 60 minutes and used every trick in the book to get the victory. There’s so much to break down, let’s get to it.

I never expected the Pats to come out so tight and get so dominated on defense. Thank Hoodie they recovered their two fumbles early in the game or this one would’ve started out even worse than 2009’s playoff game, as if any of us ever thought that would be possible.

Flacco went back to what worked in 2012 – attacking the middle of the field. Even when they stopped those passes, the run defense remained a problem. Most concerning is that even with their heavy front of Wilfork-Siliga-Branch, they were still getting pushed around by a patchwork Ravens offensive line. That is not good and will have to fixed immediately.

We talked about it all year, the Pats short yardage run defense on third and fourth down was near the bottom of the NFL, as they were stopping runs for a loss or no gain. Those problems continued yesterday and the Ravens knew to attack them there.

Early in the year when the run defense was struggling it was more about simple fundamentals, this time I’m not so sure. I need to take a better look once the All-22 comes out. But I think overall, without looking back yet, the entire defense was often just out-physicaled across the board and that’s a bit surprising/disheartening when I thought they had a chance to really set the tone.

Chandler Jones was not nearly as dominant as we were all hoping he would (and needed) to be. The pass rush with the bigger nickel front (with SIliga instead of Chris Jones) was non-existent. This is troubling, but it’s also part of what makes the Ravens so tough for the Patriots. The Pats can’t sell out for the pass by putting a DPR like Ayers in there so they get stuck in a middle ground where they had to force coverage sacks. And even with multiple defensive backs on the field, they still weren’t buying enough time for the rush to get there.

But this matchup is done with and the Pats coverage/rush will match up better with their next opponent. Still, the defensive ends have to be better.

Perhaps most interesting with the defense was that they flipped the script on their strengths and weaknesses. Red Zone defense, the hallmark of the defense in the second half of the season made just one stop (albeit a critical one that saved the game), going 4-5 on the day.

Meanwhile, their third down defense, a weakness for them this year, held the Ravens to 1-9. Some of that was mitigated by their 3-3 on fourth downs, but still, these two major statistical areas were anomalies when it comes to what we thought we knew about this Patriots defense.

Despite their up-and-down game, they came through in the clutch, almost with a nod to the shitty Patriots defenses of the past few years by sealing the game with a timely interception. The double 14-0 holes and game-saving turnovers felt like an uncomfortable tribute to 2009-2012.

Let’s turn to the offensive side of the ball, where outside of the awful interception, Brady had maybe his best playoff game against a tough opponent in some time. The fact that the game-winning touchdown came on a 20-plus pass, Brady’s greatest area of criticism, was nice. That was an absolute pinpoint pass.

The trick play and four offensive linemen wrinkle were classic touches from a coaching staff that is always looking for an edge. Great execution on both as Belichick and McDaniels broke out the chess board on the checkers players once again.

This game showed what the Pats lacked in past years to get the job done – multiple weapons. Every receiver – Edelman, Gronk, Amendola, LaFell, Vereen and even Hooman – came through with big catches. In years past, there was never that kind of depth and clutch play. That bodes well going forward.

Those who were calling for the Pats to “spread them out” certainly got their wish and the multiple point deficits certainly reinforced that. I’d have never thought the Pats could win a game where they could not and did not run, but that just shows how good Brady and the passing offense was.

The offensive line wasn’t perfect, but they did enough within the scheme to get the job done. Losing Stork (not expecting to see him again this season based on the reports) is a blow, but the Pats have the pieces to make it work. Now we have to be happy that Josh Kline got some playing time at the end of the regular season. Wendell knows what he’s doing at center, but a potential re-match with Terrence Knighton and the Broncos could be concerning.

This game had so many momentum shifts – it was back and forth all game long and we were all on the edge of our seats the entire time I’m sure. It was the most stressful non-Super Bowl game I can ever recall.

Most of the close playoff games of the Patriots dynasty have had much longer sustained momentum on both sides of the ball, but this one was back-and-forth almost from snap to snap.

While it wasn’t their best game, the playoffs are only about winning and hopefully it will be a wake up call at just the right time. The defense can and will play a lot better, and there is plenty to build off coming out of this one. But also plenty to correct.

When was the last time the Pats had a huge win like this in the divisional round? Indy in 2004. Otherwise, beating the Jaguars, Jets, Broncos, Texans, and Colts have felt more obligatory than tough wins that could be built off of. Certainly none of those had the same effect this game should have on the team.

Confidence, not only in their own resiliency, but in that they can play much better, should be sky high.

Next week will be another stiff test, especially if it’s Peyton and the Broncos, and the Pats are well aware that this kind of performance, especially on defense, will not cut it.

But for the moment we can enjoy the best playoff win in Gillette Stadium playoff history. The crazy epicness of the Bill Belichick’s Patriots lives on for another game.

Patriots Playoff Gameplan: AFC Divisional Game vs. Ravens

January 9, 2015 by Mike Dussault

Here we go, another playoff run begins for Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s Patriots as time slowly runs out on their championship window, and it’s hard not to think this is the best shot the Pats have had at taking home the Lombardi Trophy since 2007.

First, the Ravens come to Foxborough, a team that needs no introduction. As I wrote two years ago, the Pats-Ravens rivalry has become the major piece of the second half of the Brady/Belichick reign.

Few will argue that the Ravens weren’t the better team in each of the last three playoff games, even though the Pats escaped with 2011’s AFC Championship. Chalk that one up to homefield advantage that was secured in the regular season, so it was more than just luck, as some have labelled that win.

Still, the Pats caught some major breaks, just like the Ravens did in 2012 with key injuries to Rob Gronkowski pre-playoffs and Aqib Talib in the first quarter of the game.

As I’ve hit on all week, these teams are much different now than they were two years ago, the last time they met in the playoffs. The Pats are more talented and healthier than they’ve been in the previous playoff clashes.

What do the Pats need to do to get a win and move on to their fourth-straight AFC Championship game? Here’s the gameplan:

Offensive Gameplan

We must start up front because the biggest key of the game will be to contain the Ravens pass rush, led by Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, while Pernell McPhee and Haloti Ngata can be problems in the middle.

The return of Dan Connolly should help after he missed time at the end of the season. The Pats have rookie Bryan Stork at center, and two former centers in Connolly and Wendell next to him. This kind of experience and ability to set the protections, along with Solder and Vollmer on the edges, should help decipher the Ravens’ pre-snap disguise.

Expect Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees to use similar tactics to Rex Ryan – overloading one side, then blitzing the other, dropping almost everyone into coverage, etc. throughout the game.

The Ravens’ number one goal will be to get Brady out of rhythm early. The offensive line must be on their game, because as I’ve mentioned endlessly, when the Pats lose in the playoffs it’s because Brady is under early and constant duress.

So how to attack the Ravens? Many have called for quick pace via the no huddle. There is certainly merit to this approach, especially against the Ravens.

NE has run no-huddle 7% of snaps in ‘14. BAL D has faced no-huddle 21% of snaps in ’14. NE has no run-huddle 28% of last 7 games vs. BAL.

— Christopher Price (@cpriceNFL)

January 8, 2015

However, trying to do this without establishing any kind of ground game would be a mistake in my opinion, and could get the Pats out of their comfort zone.

In 2013’s regular season matchup, the Patriots made a point to run LeGarrette Blount at the edges early to take some of the steam out of Suggs and Dumervil, before turning to Stevan Ridley up the middle.

While I expect the Pats will run their share of spread and no-huddle to take advantage of the suspect Baltimore secondary, they should still aim some runs at the edges, especially at the undersized Dumervil. Last year, the Patriots ran for 142 yards against this defense.

They should also pick their spots with the no huddle, but I’d very much prefer to avoid it on third-and-shorts, a critical area that has been a weak point on offense this year. There are times to put the peddle down, but I believe the no huddle is best used in spurts when they’re gaining momentum.

Ravens middle linebackers CJ Mosely and Daryl Smith run well and could cause some problems in coverage on Rob Gronkowski, but Gronkowski is still Gronk and will make his share of plays.

In 2013, the Ravens had no answer for Julian Edelman, who had 7 catches for 77 yards and drew a couple of big penalties. He should be a focus of the Ravens’ gameplan, but can the Ravens afford to match receivers with their patchwork secondary? Against the Steelers they reverted to simply playing sides and the result was their best defensive performance of the year.

The focus on Edelman and Gronk should open things up for breakout receiver Brandon LaFell, who brings an element of size on the outside that Baltimore hasn’t had to deal with previously with the Patriots’ offense. I expect LaFell to be a key.

If the Patriots pass protection comes to play, the offense will make plays no matter how the Ravens choose to defend them, it’s really just a matter of the offensive line not laying an egg against the Baltimore pass rush.

Defensive Gameplan

It’s been fun this year watching how Belichick chooses to use his talented cornerbacks to match up with various receivers. There’s been plenty of speculation this week, with most generally feeling Darrelle Revis will draw Steve Smith.

As for Brandon Browner, some see him on Torrey Smith and I think there is some merit to this, despite Browner not having great recovery speed. Really what the Pats would need from Browner is to destroy Smith off the line, something Smith has trouble recovering from, then letting an over-the-top safety help on any deep shots.

The other benefit of this is keeping Browner from worrying about catching up to Smith downfield, a spot prime to draw a pass interference call on an underthrown ball – this is something Joe Flacco excels at.

The X-factor is Owen Daniels. The Pats have struggled covering tight ends this year, and while part of it is avoidance of Revis/Browner, Patrick Chung just doesn’t excel when asked to man-cover a guy that is significantly taller than him.

The second safety spot is an interesting one this week. Stopping the run is critical and that’s where Chung excels in Cover-1. He’s a physical tackler and sets the edge well. However the Pats played a lot of Cover-2 Man last time against the Ravens to take away the deep shots, so they’ll have a choice to make.

Perhaps what makes most sense is to play Chung early to keep their running game from getting going, then sub in Harmon on the back end for more Cover-2 looks in the second half.

Up front is where New England needs to win the game. Baltimore has injury issues on the offensive line that has required some juggling, including moving their best offensive lineman, Marshal Yanda to right tackle. Left tackle Eugene Monroe did practice this week so he could go, but even if he does, or if undrafted rookie James Hurts fills in again, Chandler Jones has a favorable matchup from his right end spot.

Vince Wilfork was absolutely dominant in 2011’s AFC Championship and has a good chance to be that player again on Saturday. As MMQB’s Andy Benoit pointed out this week, the Steelers made a concerted effort to eliminate Baltimore’s run game by lining their nose tackle up right over center Jeremy Zuttah. The Pats will do the same with Wilfork.

Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower have elevated to a new level this season, and their double A-gap pressures have been a key playcall since the Denver game. They could have a big day and will be used in their usual variety of ways – blitzing, dropping, covering – they do it all and do it all well.

Stopping the run and then the deep shots are the two big keys against Baltimore, but the Pats have better pieces to do so than they’ve had in many years. Winning in the trenches is key this week, and expect a rested and healthy Chandler Jones to show up early and often.

Points of Emphasis

1. Attack the OL -For all the talk about Suggs and Dumervil, the Pats talented front seven going against a suspect Baltimore offensive line hasn’t gotten much attention. But make no mistake, the Pats have the players who can exploit this weakness and will do so in a variety of creative ways, including linebackers blitzing the A-gaps and sliding Chandler Jones inside. The Pats must dictate with their front seven and put the pressure on Flacco early and often. Stopping the run is a priority but this game should come down to the passing aspect and letting Chandler, Big Vince, Ninkovich, Hightower and Collins feast on Flacco flakes.

2. Attack the Secondary – The Ravens defense played out of their mind last week against the Steelers to the surprise of just about everyone. Do they have another one of those games in them? The Patriots will give them a stiff test, filled with disguise and movement. Shane Vereen could be a huge X-factor in the passing game, but I believe it will Brandon LaFell who comes through in some clutch moments.

3. Protect Brady – Yup, it’s the key pretty much every week, but moreso than ever for these playoff games. The Patriots offensive line isn’t as bad as many are making them out to be this week and all of them, outside of Stork, have plenty of experience against the Ravens. They must must must be on their game if the Pats are to win this game, or any other one going forward. Three games, guys. Three games. Block like your million-dollar job depends on it, because it does.

4. Get the Lead – This is vital. A lead keeps the offense unpredictable, with all play options on the table, but an early hole will push them to become more one-dimensional, right into the hands of the Ravens’ pass rush. The Pats must have some balance and an early lead will only help them establish that.

5. Win – It’s the playoffs. Winning is the only thing that matters and putting down a tough Ravens team would be the kind of boost the Pats haven’t gotten from a divisional round victory since dsipatching Peyton Manning and the Colts in 2004. Despite their flaws, the Ravens are a similar team to the Patriots – tough and physical and unrelenting. It won’t be easy. But the 2014 Pats have the kind of team that should be able to pull it off.

A glance back at the schemes and strategy from Patriots 41-7 win over the Ravens in 2013

January 6, 2015 by Mike Dussault

Two sides of thought have emerged this week in breaking down the Patriots-Ravens playoff game. The first is the usual trolly Boston mediot take that the Ravens have the Patriots number and that simply, the Pats are afraid of them.

Then there’s what those who are paying attention think – that those Ravens teams of 2009-2012 are gone, and while they are still a solid team who will fight hard, the Patriots deserve to be favored and are the better team at least on paper. I am not sure we could say that from 2009-2012, when the Ravens simply had more depth and talent. Not anymore though.

All that talk doesn’t really interest me anyway, and honestly, this week the Boston mediot take is probably best to help lock the Patriots in even more, as maddening as it is to listen to (if you’re one to actually listen to it).

I went back and took a look at last year’s game in which the Pats got 4 turnovers from the Ravens and rolled to a dominant 41-7 win. I could spin it that the Pats effectively beat the Ravens with a shadow team of who they are now, or that the Ravens just can’t stop the Patriots without Ed Reed or Ray Lewis, but that’s a homer take not even I can really believe.

The Patriots are better now, but the Ravens are better than that performance as well. This will be a good game, but I believe the Pats have the pieces to really exploit the Ravens’ weaknesses.

The Patriots offensive gameplan seemed focused early on attacking the edges of the Ravens defense with Blount, running right at Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. Blount didn’t run wild, but he had enough success to keep those pass rushers from teeing off on passing downs.

The passing game was essentially Julian Edelman and Julian Edelman. The Ravens tried a number of different guys covering him but no one had much success. Jimmy Smith racked up two penalties trying to cover Edelman.

Edelman finished with 7 catches for 77 yards but his impact was greater than those stats indicate.

Once the defense was loosed up a bit the Patriots started using Ridley up the middle and had okay success. Blount and Ridley combined for 130 yards.

Blount should once again get a similar role in the attack this time around, but will Jonas Gray take over Ridley’s up-the-gut carries? He must hold on to the ball if so.

Defensively the Patriots played a lot of Cover-2 Man, which makes a lot of sense. It gives over the top protection, but also utilizes the cornerback’s strength at the line of scrimmage.

However, the Pats were in sub defense for all but six snaps, which puts a heavy emphasis on stopping the staple of the Ravens offense – zone runs – with just six in the box.

There might not be a bigger key this weekend than doing that again, however you’d think the Pats are better prepared now with Wilfork and Branch in the mix to go with Jones and Siliga (who played almost every snap in last year’s matchup).

Cover-2 Man will also put a focus on Patrick Chung this week. Steve Gregory was probably a little better in deep coverage than Chung, but if the Pats go Cover-2 Man heavy again this time, we could see more of Duron Harmon on the back end than Chung.

We also saw more Brandon Spikes than Jamie Collins last year, but a similar amount of showing presnap A-gap pressure whether they brought it or not. Collins and Hightower are a lot better at their blitzing or bailing on the A gaps this year, a true staple of the Pats defense. They could play a huge role this weekend, because getting pressure in Flacco’s face is vital.

The Patriots have seen plenty of Gary Kubiak’s zone run offense in recent years while he was with the Texans. They know what it takes to stop it.

There are no secrets with his Ravens incarnation of offense – zone runs and play action deep shots are what it’s all about. But with a deep secondary and a number of front seven players, all who can blitz or drop, the Pats have the pieces they did not in 2009-2012.

But perhaps what it boils down to most is simply turnovers. In the 2009-2012 playoff games the Ravens had just 3 turnovers to the Patriots’ 10.

Pats Posits: Bring On The Ravens

January 4, 2015 by Mike Dussault

In Bill Belichick’s episode of A Football Life, which had inside access to the Patriots’ 2009 season, he told his team before their regular season matchup with the Ravens that this was a team that was “in it for the long haul. I know it. You know it. They know it”.

Belichick probably didn’t realize how true his words were. This will be the fourth time the Ravens have come to Foxboro in the last six playoff seasons, and really, they’ve outplayed the Patriots in all of them despite having lost the 2011 AFC Championship.

In 2009, the Ravens hit the Patriots in the mouth on the first play, as Ray Rice went 80-plus yards for a touchdown on a carry right up the middle.

In 2012, the Patriots simply had no answer for Joe Flacco in the second half as he marched right down the field on them, outscoring the home team 21-0 in the last two quarters.

The Patriots broke up a potential Ravens game-winning touchdown in the end zone in 2011, and got a huge break when the game-tying field goal was missed. That was New England’s only win and it was far from convincing that the Pats were the better team.

This is what has a lot of Patriots fans skittish about the Ravens coming to Gillette this Saturday. The main points of concern are Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs matching up with the Patriots’ tackles – Nate Solder, who has regressed in his fourth season, and Sebastian Vollmer, who recovered after a rough start to have a solid season.

The Patriots’ offensive line is always a huge focus of a playoff run, because let’s face it, every time New England has bowed out of the playoffs, it’s been a leaky line, usually in the middle, that is the culprit.

The way I see it, Solder and Vollmer are going to have to have great games at some point if the Pats are going to win the Super Bowl. Whether it’s this week against the Ravens or next week against the Broncos (hopefully), there will be no free passes.

Otherwise, this playoff matchup really flips the script on what we saw from 2009-2012 when these two teams played.

The biggest difference for Tom Brady is Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are no longer around. I think a lot of Baltimore’s “fearlessness” we hear being talked about with them coming to Foxboro, was from Reed and Lewis.

Reed was the best free safety in the history of the game in Belichick’s view. A player he and Brady would dedicate entire meetings to. The lack of that kind of player, and the time needed to focus on him, is an immediate bonus for New England.

Baltimore has a good defense, led by their front seven, but it’s not the kind of Hall of Fame defense we saw two years ago that was ready to meet Brady head on. Pats O vs. Ravens D was a push back then, now the advantage is on the Patriots side.

We saw a taste of this in 2013’s Patriots blowout of the Ravens in Baltimore. And that was with Logan Mankins playing left tackle and no Rob Gronkowski, not to mention Brandon LaFell or Tim Wright.

On the other side of the ball, there is no comparison to this Patriots defense now and the patchwork squad they were putting on the field from 2009-2012. This is now a defense with one of the best secondaries in the game and a front seven that is just hitting its prime.

Can anyone really argue that the Ravens’ offense now is better than it was with Ray Rice, Anquan Bolden and even Dennis Pita in their prime?

I love that the Patriots will get a shot at ending the Ravens season and putting an end to the Ravens’ dominance over them of late in the playoffs. There’s something about the Ravens that will immediately get the Patriots attention and that’s a good thing.

Not that the Pats wouldn’t be locked in on another opponent, but with the Ravens there’s just a little something extra.

As much as some might want an easier first playoff game, it’s going to take three great games from the Patriots, regardless of their opponent. They’ve been up for every challenge the last two months and this game will be no different.

It will be a fun week of hype, but remember, this isn’t 2009-2012.

Pats Posits: If Not Now, When?

December 29, 2014 by Mike Dussault

I’m not sure how much we really need to talk about yesterday’s game against the Bills. The only thing that really matters is that the Pats got out of it without a catastrophic injury. Yeah, a couple guys limped off but I’d think with the bye week, everyone should be ready to go for January 10th’s playoff opener.

So let’s talk a bit about 2014 with today’s Posits, a season where the Patriots returned to a level of dominance not seen since 2007. As I’ve said before, the Patriots’ teams of 2010-2013 always felt flawed on the defensive side of the ball with a dash of limitations on offense.

2010 was the best example of this – a defense that had to rely on turnovers to preserve wins and an offense that was almost entirely based on the short passing attack.

The 2014 Patriots finally turned the page to a defense that can win simply with their red zone prowess, while their offense can challenge all levels of defense. They still have the deadly “scalpel” (aka dink and dunk) that they can run at a devastating pace, but the health of Gronk, emergence of Brandon LaFell and rotating backfield have given the Pats some new dimensions.

2013 was about overcoming injuries. We knew the Pats were on borrowed time, so when they lost in the AFC Championship in Denver, no one was overly disappointed. The 2013 team took things as far as they could.

But now our expectations are high and it’s hard to to think “if not now, when?”.

The 2014 Pats are not without their weaknesses, but short yardage situations on both sides of the ball are hardly glaring problems. They also appear to be susceptible to tight ends, and can have periods of ineffectiveness on offense, but overall this Patriots team is as strong going into the playoffs as we’ve seen under Bill Belichick.

Some quick hit thoughts on the players and schemes of 2014 before we jump into the playoffs.

The emergence of Hightower and Collins as legitimate NFL stars will be somewhat overshadowed by the Revis and Browner of it all. They came of age against the Broncos where the Pats started really employing double A gap pressure (or at least faking it) with their linebackers. I’m left wondering how the rotations would’ve worked if Mayo hadn’t gotten hurt, because I can’t imagine taking Collins or Hightower off the field. Mayo will be a major storyline this offseason, but I’d be fine to turn the page to Hightower being the full-time defensive leader. He might not be as fast as Mayo but his physical strength makes more of an impact than Mayo’s speed. I also think Hightower just has a better feel in coverage that makes up for that extra step Mayo might have.

Collins is right there with Hightower, and learning to be patient might be the best advancement of his game this year. He has the speed and athleticism that allow him to diagnose in that split second post-snap, then fly to the ball. Collins can do it all and he’ll need to be an impact player this next month for the Pats to make the Super Bowl.

They have to re-sign Revis. Belichick and Brady don’t have forever and when you have a corner like Revis in house, one who can be the center of an entire defensive game plan, you have to keep him.

Sealver Siliga and Chris Jones built on their 2013 seasons and both seem like long-term building blocks on the DL. Siliga especially is a great find and he should be able to ease the inevitable transition from Wilfork.

For Wilfork to come back from an Achilles tear like he did was amazing. And now, with a solid DT rotation around him, he should be fresher for the playoffs than he was from 2010-2012, when the Pats effectively ran him into the ground.

Chandler Jones’ injury was unfortunate, but how the Pats got by with Akeem Ayers without him was pretty amazing too. Ayers has seen his role subside since Chandler’s return, but he’ll be a big part of the playoffs against heavy passing teams.

The offensive line might be the headline weakness of the 2014 season, led by Nate Solder’s regression Dan Connolly should hopefully be healthy for the playoffs and his presence is much-needed. But after center, I don’t think any OL spot is off the table this offseason.

Between Edelman/Gronk/LaFell/Wright, the major pieces for the Pats offensive weaponry is in good shape, but the running back position will be one to watch this offseason. I really have no clue how that will all play out. Do Ridley/Vereen come back? Is Jonas Gray a building block? How much of a role can Blount play? Great questions, and maybe the answer lies in the draft.

Upgrading the SS spot will be another area to look at this offseason. Chung started strong and is good against the run, but he was exposed in pass coverage more and more as the season went along. Tavon Wilson seemed to be getting more and more looks as well. Maybe he’s an option. But someone with size who can cover would be ideal, not that those guys grow on trees.

Still, Revis will be the first chip to fall this offseason, followed closely by McCourty. Both are vital in my view.

Heading out of town for an overnight trip, then I’ll be back later this week with the final three GIFs of the season and some early playoff thoughts.

Here’s to a great 2014, with more big wins, especially on the road, than we’ve had in a while around here. Expectations are sky high now, but I know the Pats will bring it.