analysis

Pats Posits: The Patriots are Super Bowl Champions!

February 2, 2015 by Mike Dussault

This one means the most to me. Yes, I grew up a Patriots fan and spent plenty of time watching the old Patsies getting their asses handed to them in the old Foxboro Stadium, so the first Super Bowl win was special.

But it was after the 2005 AFC Divisional loss to the Broncos that I realized that Brady and Belichick had an unknown end date and a finite number of chances to win it all, that my Pats passion truly kicked into another gear.

Then, in 2007, when my real job slowed to a crawl due to a strike, I found an ad on Craigslist saying you could get paid to blog about your favorite sports team. After a trip back to see the ‘07 Pats beat the Steelers, when I saw a banner being flown over Gillette Stadium saying the Pats’ Super Bowl wins deserved asterisks, I decided to start blogging.

Since then I’ve written exclusively about the Patriots, analyzing their team building process and schemes, breaking down all the wins and losses, through thick and thin. It’s been over seven years, thousands of blog posts and millions of page views.

The disappointment of the season endings from 2006-2013 was ever-compounding. Maybe Patriots fans are spoiled, but to miss out on the playoffs is one kind of disappointment. To keep getting so close to the ultimate goal on the biggest stages and continually fall one play short is another kind.

Needless to say my bond to this team has grown exponentially since becoming a Patriots blogger. So to finally win the big one again and to be able to “celebrate” it with my online audience and fanmates, this is a new kind of special.

I want to thank every one of you that have supported this blog with your clicks, questions, conversations and t-shirt purchases. You’re the ones who make this incredibly fun, and why I keep doing it despite it not being even close to a money-making venture.

It’s still sinking in this morning. When it looked like the Patriots were going to lose another Super Bowl on another miracle catch I was beside myself, pacing in another room away from everyone, where I could just see the TV.

I always say you can’t truly appreciate a win unless you’ve accepted at some point there’s a good chance you’re going to lose. Well I don’t think I’ve ever accepted a loss more than I had last night as the Seahawks lined up for their final two plays.

To have Malcolm Butler come through and make a huge play – a play the Patriots defense couldn’t make in 2007 or 2012, well, I am not sure the words that do it justice other than poetic and perfect.

I can’t even look at the Kearse catch this morning without re-feeling the pit that was in my stomach when he came up with it. Truth be told, I didn’t even have my eyes on the screen when he caught it. I had half the TV blocked and only saw Wilson throw it up, then listened for the result.

So today, the Patriots are once again Super Bowl champions and the razor-thin margin of victory is every bit as thin as it was in their two Super Bowl losses.

The win embodied everything the 2014 Patriots were. Clutch red zone stops by the defense and a surgical and diverse passing attack, led by the greatest quarterback of all time.

I’m going to enjoy this one for a while, but inevitably we’ll be back at the bottom of the mountain once again, looking up at Super Bowl 50, one that will take place in Tom Brady’s hometown, with a chance for Brady and Belichick to break every Super Bowl record in the book.

Not that I’m on to 2015 just yet, but still…

Patriots Gameplan: Super Bowl vs. Seattle Seahawks

January 30, 2015 by Mike Dussault

It all comes down to this as the New England Patriots face the Seattle Seahawks in Glendale, Arizona for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy of Super Bowl 49. Good luck if you’re still looking for tickets for Super Bowl 49!

It’s been a full season of gameplans, and now there’s just one team to focus on. Despite this week’s distractions, the Seahawks pose a strong challenge for the Patriots – one that will test many of their weaknesses.

But with two weeks to prepare, there is no better coach that Bill Belichick and if the Patriots can execute the game plan that Belichick lays out, they’ll have a very strong chance of winning.

Here’s what I think they need to do.

Offensive Gameplan

We can take a look back to the 2012 matchup between these two teams to get a little bit of a sense how they might attack each other. As I laid out last week, the Patriots had plenty of success moving the ball, but their 1-6 performance in the red zone, including an end zone interception, was the difference.

The Seahawks are an excellent defense, but they are not a complex one. As Eric Mangini once said of Brady “if he knows it goes”, and that’s why the Patriots should feel comfortable with how to attack the Seahawks defense.

Executing and matching their physicality will be the challenges, but the Patriots are not a team that is often bullied on either side of the ball. They’ll take some licks and they’ll give some licks.

The 2012 attack was centered heavily on attacking the center of the field, the Pats’ bread and butter, and there’s no reason to think they’ll get away from that.

While some have called Rob Gronkowski the key player of the game, I believe it could be Julian Edelman, especially if he’s able to matchup in the slot against Jeremy Lane.

The physicality of Brandon LaFell on the outside is just what you want against the Seahawks’ corners. He should see plenty of Byron Maxwell. Given Brady’s strength throwing the ball to his left, LaFell could have a chance to shine as well.

A healthy Gronkowski is always an X-factor especially in the red zone. How the Seahawks choose to match Gronkowski will be one of the most interesting points to monitor as the game unfolds.

The Seahawks have given up over 130 yards rushing in each of their two playoff games so there’s good reason to stay balanced with LeGarrette Blount. If Blount gets rolling it could help the Patriots be far more balanced than they’ve been in the last two Super Bowls.

The Patriots must challenge Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas given their injuries. Tight formations that run to Sherman’s side would be a good way to test out his tackling with his injured elbow.

But most important is protecting Tom Brady up the middle. That’s where their gameplans were destroyed in the last two Super Bowls, namely by Justin Tuck. This will be a quick passing attack, so the edges are less of a concern.

Michael Bennett slides inside in the Seahawks nickel package, so that could be a concern. The Pats will know where he is at all times, and perhaps running at him in nickel with Shane Vereen will be something to consider.

The Pats received a boost with news on Wednesday that center Bryan Stork should be ready to go. Stork, Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell must play well. There’s no quicker way for things to unravel than if that trio is getting beat early and often.

Defensive Gameplan

This is the best secondary the Patriots have entered a Super Bowl with, at least since 2003. The Seahawks passing attack is fairly easy to decipher and the Pats match up well with them.

Conventional thinking is Darrelle Revis will take Doug Baldwin, while Brandon Browner will take the bigger deep threat in Jermaine Kearse. Kyle Arrington should see Ricardo Lockette in the slot, while Patrick Chung should get the majority of the coverage against tight end Luke Willson.

Of course, the Patriots will not be predictable and these coverages will shift at times, but in the important moments, those will likely be who’s covering who.

The problem for the Patriots will be Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson, for a variety of reasons. Lynch has had limited success against the Patriots (averages for 5 career games vs. Pats: 14 carries, 53 yards, 3.79 YPC. Never broken 100 yards), though that doesn’t mean much in a one game situation.

The read option and Russell Wilson’s mobility are two things the Patriots must concern themselves with. This area has been extensively covered this week because it’s obvious.

I believe the best route is to force the ball to Lynch and take away Wilson’s outside scrambles at all costs. Let Wilfork, Siliga and Branch stop Lynch.

Wilson’s bootlegs are another big concern as well so the focus for the edge players to maintain integrity is vital.

Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich must remain disciplined in their pass rush, while Vince Wilfork, Sealver Siliga and Alan Branch must maintain gap discipline. It’s likely Wilfork won’t try to overcommit to his pass rush and instead hold the top of the pocket to contain Wilson.

There are a number of ways the Pats can go to spy Wilson as well, with most thinking Jamie Collins is a good fit for the job, while Dont’a Hightower covers Lynch on passing routes.

Lynch was the third-leading receiver for the Seahawks this year, so Hightower’s work in coverage is critical. Hightower has the size and enough maneuverability that he’s a pretty good matchup.

Trusting that the secondary can take away the quick throws and buy them time for a slow pass rush is critical, especially on third down. If the Pats can’t keep Wilson in the pocket their entire gameplan will start to breakdown as receivers uncover downfield and Wilson scrambles for critical yardage.

Stopping Lynch on straight-forward run plays is only the beginning. Seattle’s misdirection and ability to extend plays must be snuffed out to stop them.

Points of Emphasis

1. Keep Wilson in the Pocket – Whether they spy him with a linebacker or just “mush rush” him, stopping Wilson from making big plays on the ground is a huge priority. No quarterback is better at making plays after things break down, so being patient is key, especially when the initial timing of the play is stopped. If Wilson is forced to stay in the pocket and throw the ball, the Patriots will have taken away a major piece of what makes the Seahawks go. This of course goes hand in hand with…

2. Gang Tackle Lynch – The defensive tackles must wrap and tackle Lynch, because he lives of yards-after-contact. The Patriots have been pretty good at this in the past with Lynch but that will mean little on Sunday. Alan Branch knows firsthand from his time in Seattle what it’s like to see Lynch on a daily basis and his presence should help. If Chandler/Ninkovich/Collins form a triangle trap to contain Wilson, it will be up to the Wilfork/Siliga/Hightower/Chung to hold Lynch in check.

3. Protect Brady Up The Middle – This is the Super Bowl credo. Don’t let the interior rushers throw off the quick-passes. Michael Bennett is certainly one player to be concerned with, but the offensive line will need their best game of the season if the Pats are going to get the job done.

4. 60 Minutes- Everyone one of the five Super Bowls Brady and Belichick have gone to have gone down to the final possession and is there really any reason to think this one would be any different? There’s no question these are the two best teams in football and the one who makes the fewest mistakes and puts together the best game on this particular day

5. Win – The Patriots will feel things out early, testing how the Seahawks want to play them. As Michael Lombardi once said, the start of the game is a race for Belichick to see how you want to play them. An early three-and-out or sustained Seahawks drive is not cause for major concern, though a fast start would be nice, and it’s something the Pats have lacked in the last two Super Bowls. What matters most is winning no matter how the ups-and-downs of the games go. To see them raise the Lombardi Trophy once again after all the controversies of not only the last two weeks, but of the last seven years, would truly be something special for Patriots fans.

It all comes down to this.

4 Things Patriots Should Have Learned From Giant Super Bowl Losses

January 23, 2015 by Mike Dussault

I’m not really sure which Super Bowl loss to the Giants shocked me more.

In 2007, it seemed inconceivable that Eli Manning would be the one quarterback to hand the Patriots a loss, much less that the Giants defense would hold one of the most prolific offenses in history to a mere 14 points.

In 2012, it seemed like everything had lined up for the Patriots revenge tour. They dispatched the Broncos, the team that ended their season in 2005, the Ravens, the team that had ended their season in 2009, and now had another crack at Eli and the Giants.

Different year, same result. The Pats clung to a fourth-quarter lead, only to see Eli lead a miraculous final drive for the win.

So what should the Patriots have learned from those two losses? Here are four things that stand out:

1. Get Offense Going Early: In 2007, the Giants held the ball for a whopping 16-play, 10 minute opening drive. Yes, it ended in a field goal, but that seemed to set a tone early on. In 2012, the Giants opened with a 10-play, six-minute drive, then, after punting, the Pats gave it right back with a safety.

In both Super Bowls, it was nearly the end of the first quarter before the Patriots put together any kind of a sustained drive. A fast start would be a welcome change this time around and we know how devastating the Patriots can be with an early lead.

2. Protect Brady Up The Gut: This isn’t a news flash, the Patriots offensive line got dominated in both Super Bowl, especially up the gut, which is essentially kryptonite to the Pats favored quick-passing offense. Justin Tuck was at the center of it, combining for 4 sacks in the two Super Bowls, along with 3 QB hits in 2012.

Bryan Stork’s return to practice this week was a good sign for the Pats. They’ll need him, Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell to have solid games if the Pats offense is to find its stride. Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer will be tested as well, but it’s the quick pressure up the middle that is most worrisome.

3. Stay Balanced: In the two Super Bowl losses, the Patriots run/pass balance was 28 percent run, 72 percent pass. This only fed into a Giants pass rush pinning back their ears and getting after Brady. In 2012, the Pats only had the ball for 22:55, and had only one drive that lasted more than five minutes. Running the ball is key to controlling the game and burning the clock.

The Pats must try to do a better job of staying committed to the run. It’s not always easy, but they cannot forget about LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen getting their share of carries, even if they’re not having success or behind.

4. Make the Last Stop: In spite of everything I just laid out, the Patriots were two defensive stops at the end of both Super Bowls from winning. We saw the defense come through against the Ravens with an interception and it’s a good bet they’ll need to come through in the clutch once again since this Seahawks team has a knack for late comebacks.

Put a Pin In Deflategate

January 22, 2015 by Mike Dussault

Today we heard from Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and in a nutshell, their response to the ongoing “Deflategate” controversy, is that they don’t know how 11 of 12 footballs lost some pressure.

Belichick didn’t care one bit about the PSI of any footballs and seemed to go out of his way to mention he forces his team to play with much worse balls than are ever used in games.

This almost seemed a shot at the Colts for being crybabies, because no one is arguing that a slightly deflated football had any impact whatsoever on the AFC Championship.

As you might expect, I tend to take Belichick and Brady at their word because the way the facts are adding up, I don’t see a huge case against them. And at this point, they are the only ones who have come forward and talked to the media about this situation.

As for the other side, I don’t know what to believe of the accusations anymore and neither the Colts, nor the Ravens (who either voluntarily or involuntarily have joined this goat rodeo) will come forward.

First, we heard D-Quell Jackson alerted his team to this problem. NOPE.

Then we heard the Ravens tipped the Colts off about the Patriots using under inflated balls. NOPE.

So what do we know as fact? Not much. And I’m really starting to question how well the refs tested the balls before the game.

This reddit thread (take it for what it’s worth) uses science (oooooh!) to prove it’s possible the balls could simply lose this kind of pressure given the elements. And let’s remember the difference between legal and illegal is imperceptible.

The rain had more effect on the ball than losing that bit of air would’ve.

The original timeline (sorry to dip into Serial mode here) had the balls being checked pregame, then somehow losing PSI before being switched out at halftime.

The conspiracy theorists say the Patriots must’ve deflated them somehow before the game. A former ballboy said it would be “very difficult” to secretly deflate 11 balls in that time.

Why would the Patriots run a full covert operation for something that would make no noticeable difference? I know they like to push the line, but that borders on the absurd.

Outside of a smoking gun video of a Patriots employee willfully letting air out of the balls, I’m not sure how the NFL can do much more than levy a fine in the $25,000-$50,000 range. And even then, if the atmosphere was responsible and not a human Patriot employee, even that seems excessive.

Maybe there’s more inside info to come out since the league hasn’t even spoken to Brady yet, but right now, there’s not much of a case against the Pats.

It’s fun to go into outrage mode, but this story seems to be quickly losing the grand controversy steam it’s had for the last three days.

The final chip to fall will be when the NFL finally hands down their punishment, if there even is any.

At this point, I’m really starting to wonder. And maybe in the end this will just be a charade of outrage that does nothing but give the Pats a legitimate “us against the world” mentality for the Super Bowl.

Maybe Deflategate will be the best gift Patriots fans have gotten in the last 10 years.

Patriots vs. Seahawks: Look Back at 2012

January 21, 2015 by Mike Dussault

I was in Seattle for the 2012 matchup between the Patriots and the Seahawks, the second time I had been to a game there. It’s a fantastic atmosphere and I have to say I admire the energy the fans bring. Might be a little over-hyped now with all the attention they’ve gotten but they’ve earned every bit of it.

Even in 2008, with the Hawks well out of the playoff picture and Matt Cassel under center for the Pats, they brought impressive enthusiasm, cheering through the Patriots huddle as if it were a playoff game.

The Patriots won the game in 2008 on a forced fumble by Brandon Meriweather and, in looking back at the 2012 game, the Pats really should’ve won that one too.

Had it not been for an end zone interception in the fourth quarter, with the Pats already up 20-10, it might’ve even gone into “blowout” territory.

The keys to the late Seahawks comeback? A 51-yard pass to Golden Tate that set up their first touchdown that closed the score to 23-17. Then the game-winning 46-yard strike to Sidney Rice.

It’s worth noting, and not surprising, that the Pats had rookie Tavon Wilson, now an “in-the-box” safety, and special teamer Nate Ebner, playing as their deep free safeties. Devin McCourty was still playing cornerback then.

The Pats held Marshawn Lynch to just 41 yards on 15 carries, with a long of just 7 yards. New England seemed well-prepared to shut down Lynch with a gang-tackling style.

What stands out on the Pats offensive side of the ball is how pass-heavy they went from the get-go. Brady ended the day 36-of-58 with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

26 rushing attempts yielded just 87 yards, a 3.3 average, but most of the time those runs almost felt obligatory. For the most part, the Pats seemed intent on spreading the Seahawks out and throwing it at the middle of the field.

36 of Brady’s 58 attempts we aimed 0-10 yards from the LOS, with 23 of them being right in the middle of the field. Wes Welker ended the day with 138 yards, including a 46 yard touchdown.

Brady had success on every Seahawk defensive back except Richard Sherman, where he was just 2-of-7 with an interception.

Perhaps most telling is that New England was just 1-for-6 in the red zone. The chances were there, but they couldn’t finish.

While many of the players are now different, I think there’s something to be said from how the Pats attacked the Seahawks defensive scheme. Seattle is not a complex defense based on disguise and mix-and-match coverage. They do what they do, but they do it with aggression and speed and that’s why they’re so good.

Beating Brady has always been about deception and taking away his quick throws. This was not how Seattle chose to defend him in 2012 and he moved the ball fairly well.

Seattle may try a similar game plan to last year’s Super Bowl, with heavy press man, or they may allow the short throws and try to punish the receivers after the catch.

Either way, I think New England has good threats across the board to challenge the Seahawks defensive style. The easy guess is that Julian Edelman will be a big factor in the middle of the field like Welker was in 2012.

Still, as we saw last week, the Seahawks run defense can be had with a big physical runner, so perhaps LeGarrette Blount will see more work than Ridley et al. did in 2012.

One thing is for sure, the Patriots have options on offense that they didn’t have in 2012. Especially at X-receiver, where trading up from Brandon Lloyd to Brandon LaFell is about as good as you could hope for in a physical matchup like this.

Defensively, it’s night and day for the Patriots, with a deep and versatile secondary that can match up with anyone and shouldn’t be as likely to give up those over-the-top bombs that won the game for the Hawks last time.

Can the Pats still stop Lynch like they did last time? Brandon Spikes was a big factor and they’ll need a similar performance from Dont’a Hightower.

Russell Wilson also had some success running outside the pocket in 2012, and that’s another area the Patriots will have to be very conscious of.

Still, it’s encouraging to see the Patriots move the ball in an environment like Seattle and it’s a good sign they’ll be comfortable attacking Pete Carroll’s scheme in Glendale.

Patriots vs. Colts AFC Championship All-22 Thoughts: Defense Edition

January 20, 2015 by Mike Dussault

Lost in the blowout of this game was how the Patriots defense put in perhaps their best defensive effort of the season against Andrew Luck and the Colts. The only scoring drive the Colts put together was one that got two key penalties and a miraculous catch by TY Hilton. Otherwise it was shut down city and that bodes well for a team that will face another huge challenge in Russell Wilson and the Seahawks.

Here’s the drive chart:

Pats counter the Colts 12 personnel with their base nickel, and the same CB-WR matchups from the first game (24-87, 39-80, 25-13). Strong interior play to stop the run on first down, then get penetration with Collins on a second down blitz, set up a third-and-long.

Colts go to 3WR/2TE on third down, with an 87-10-80 bunch formation in the right slot. Hilton (25 cover) is iso X on the backside, while Allen (91 cover) is sent out far right.

The Pats bring in Ayers on the defensive right edge, shifting Chandler to the left edge with Nikovich sliding inside. Jones/Nink run a stunt, with Nink looping to the outside and getting just enough pressure to force an off throw from Luck. Defer, three-and-out, no better way to start a game.

After the botched punt return, the Colts are now in a 0-7 hole and put together a 12-play drive.

Revis slides to Moncrief on this drive but that’s because Wayne isn’t out there. Otherwise the matchups and personnel remain the same. Colts have some success early running the ball, but the Pats recover after they get 12 yards on an off-tackle on first down.

Third-and-3, Ayers comes on, Chandler slides inside. Malcolm Butler makes his first appearance on the outside with Revis out and does a good job on Moncrief, while they double Reggie Wayne with Ryan and Ayers, who dropped. Would’ve been a stop but BROWNER HOLDING!

Colts roll out their 3 TE set and the Pats counter with their regular 4-3 defense with Casillas at LB. Ninkovich tips the Luck pass to force a third down. So far Nink has been balling.

Colts convert a 3rd-and-5 to Fleener as he gets a free release and doesn’t have Browner on him for what seems like the first time this game. Collins tackles him immediately, but it’s a case where the pressure and coverage are just a moment too slow.

Two drops by Herron and an incomplete to Wayne and the Colts have to try a field goal that they miss. Targets going at Collins downfield and Logan Ryan are not surprising.

Another deep shot on Ryan covering Nicks is overthrown. Small window there, but the ball had to be on the money and it wasn’t. Colts generally sloppy as the Pats are rotating guys in and out and not giving anything away matchup wise.

I think part of what the Pats learned in games like Green Bay is that if your CB-WR matchups are predictable it’s easy to gameplan. Packers knew they were going after Ryan and had seemed to be ready to throw heavy to his one receiver all game. With a constant rotation from almost down-to-down, it makes the offense figure it out at the line. This should be a similar plan against Seattle.

Now comes the best drive of the day for the Colts. Let’s see what went right besides some penalty calls.

Colts go back to their 3-TE set then try to spread the field and have some success, coupled with Wilfork’s kinda dumb penalty.

Just an absolute sick throw-and-catch on Hilton’s 36 yarder. Pretty much unstoppable. Look at the coverage by Arrington.

Colts get another break on a third down with a hold on Collins. Which I couldn’t really see.

Another two broken-down play completions to Fleener sets the Colts up for their only touchdown of the game.

From here on out in the second half they don’t have another possession longer than 6 plays, for the most part in this early going, the tone was set as was the defensive gameplan.

Nothing was easy for the Colts, most of their big plays were either one-time things or came off penalties. Even some of the 10+ completions were on breakdowns where the guy just got open late after the coverage had held.

The physicality has been impressive to watch, the Patriots defense was dictating for the first time in the playoffs in a long time.

Patriots On To Face Seattle in the Super Bowl

January 19, 2015 by Mike Dussault

Deep in the back of any New England Patriots fan’s mind headed into the AFC Championship, was the feeling that the Pats should probably blow out the Colts. Not many had the confidence to come out and say it, or perhaps we were just too superstitious, but given the results of the last three matchups, it seemed clear the Pats should roll.

And that’s just what New England did, rolling over the Colts just as they had the previous three times, and they’re now headed to their sixth Super Bowl in the last 14 seasons.

It’s obvious what Bill Belichick thinks of the Colts – that the simple key was running all over them and the Pats had no problem doing it once again, racking up 177 rushing yards.

The Colts had one touchdown drive, aided by two penalties and a spectacular catch by T.Y. Hilton, but otherwise, they were completely shut down.

Some crazy good Pats stats:

Offense 12-for-18 on third down.
Defense 3-for-11 on third down.
Offense 6-for-7 in the red zone.

As we talked about this week, it had been a while since New England came out with an “A” performance in the AFC championship, well this was the one we’ve been waiting for since 2004.

Given the nature of the game, it’s hard not to go total lovefest on every player and coach. Is there really anything to criticize coming out of this one?

Yeah, another bad Tom Brady interception that led to a significant momentum shift. But outside of that the team played inspired football from start to finish. It was an impressive culmination to watch. Hopefully they have one more game like this in them, but it certainly won’t be easy.

So now the Pats are on to the Super Bowl and there will be plenty to breakdown on this great matchup in the next two weeks. For now, it’s time to celebrate the Pats are once again headed to the big one.