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PatsPosits: I heart defensive linemen picks

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As anyone who’s read this blog for a while now knows, I am always down to take a defensive tackle in the first round so I was excited when Malcom Brown was the pick.

In my mock I had them taking Eddie Goldman. Really it was almost a coin flip for me between Brown and Goldman, and the reason I went to Goldman instead was he was a little bigger and (I thought) a little more likely to still be around at 32.

So this is doubly good. Why? Because Brown was a lot better than the 32nd best player in this draft and the Pats added another player who can disrupt things up front.

Since 2010 I’ve almost worn out the interior pass rush drum from beating it so much. In today’s NFL, with so many good quarterbacks, you simply must have defensive tackles who can cause problems immediately off the snap and either get in the QB’s face or push one of his offensive linemen back into his lap. 

Now the Pats have Easley, Chris Jones and Brown who can all get off the ball. However, Brown’s greater size makes him an even more useful tool because he should be a good run deterrent on passing downs as well. That was a big role of Wilfork’s and while Siliga should see snaps there as well, Brown’s all around game should help him make some pass rush impact.

He won’t have to instantly play 80 percent of the snaps like Wilfork was doing, but I’d bet his playing time just keeps increasing as the season goes along.

Who’s Next?

As I’ve been saying here, this next pick looks like prime guard territory, and with the Jets adding Leonard Williams the need for a big mauling guard upfront has never been bigger.

AJ Cann and Tre Jackson are two names at the top of my list. Pats might have to trade up for Cann, which I think is reasonable. Otherwise a surprise cornerback could make sense as well.

With three picks today (one of which cannot be traded) they have the ammo to move up if they choose to.

PatsPosits: Counting down to more counting down

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The draft is here! Tonight! Probably. If not, tomorrow because you know the Pats are probably going to ditch 32 for a high second rounder.

I can’t let today pass without a brief lament for the old days when the entire draft was on s weekend and I’d just sit around eating and drinking all day enjoying it. I can still remember trying to figure out how to get Wifi hooked up in my old apartment so I could actually post things to the internet DURING the draft. 

Oh, how times have changed. Now I get to watch large chunks of the first two rounds from work, with a drive home sprinkled in in the middle. I might try to recreate the old weekend magic on Saturday but there just isn’t the same excitement for rounds 4-7.

Perhaps you’re like me and you’ve got draft fatigue by this point. The constant speculation of who could go where and whether or not the  team might trade up or down, it just gets tiresome.

Because in three days the Pats will have drafted a handful of guys, be in the process of signing a bunch of other rookie free agents and then we can cease the speculation and dive in on how these new players fit into the puzzle.

Until then we’ll just tough it out and try to enjoy it all. 

What will the Patriots do tonight? Of course, it’s impossible to predict, unless we’re talking about last year when there were quite a few of us who had a bead on Easley. 

This year it seems Eddie Goldman has a lot of Pats pundit support and I am on that train as well. I don’t think they can go wrong with a front seven defender pick tonight, whether it’s a big tackle like Goldman, or even an athletic DE/OLB.

The runner-up in a lot of mocks from guys I trust is Laken Tomlinson. He’s a good fit at an area of need but the question will be if they could get him 5-10 picks later.

All things being equal, it’s hard not to think there’s at least a 50 percent chance the Pats are trading out of today.

The value between 32 and 35-45 is not all that different, and if they can add another pick, maybe for next year, it would fit their past methodology of maximizing value.

Still, I can make a pretty good argument for trading up into the mid-20s. The Pats have nine picks and not a lot of front line holes on their roster. Outside of a guard is there really another position where they wouldn’t be at least solid to open training camp? 

Sure you want to maximize competition and there could easily be rookie starters at running back, cornerback and perhaps linebacker if the right players fall to the right spot.

But it shouldn’t be surprising that the most impactful draft moves of the past few years were the two trade ups to get Chandler and Hightower in 2012. Those two picks were key in this year’s Super Bowl win, and with okay depth almost everywhere on the roster, a trade up for an immediate impact player like those two guys would make a lot of sense.

The thing about the Patriots is they are completely unpredictable, unless you include Easley last year. That’s what makes them so much fun to follow, other than the winning. They’re could be trade ups, trade downs, trades for players, or a surprise pick that could go completely outside the schematic specifications we’ve come to understand.

I fully expect to have at least one shock moment in the next three days, with “who the hell is that guy they just drafted” being the most likely case.

Regardless of draft fatigue it will be a fun three days. Let’s hope the Pats fill some holes and bring in some players we can all be excited about.

2015 PatsPropaganda Patriots Mock Draft

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It’s time to unleash my one and only mock draft! You can check out my full Patriots-only big board here, where my Top 50 Pats prospects are listed. 

Not all the needs I see for the Patriots are easily filled. I find that’s often how national mock draft go – list team need, fill with best guy left at the position. But that’s never how it works.

Nearly all of these prospects have certain common threads – outstanding character and dedication to football, they play the game with intensity and aggression, and often feature superlative size, strength and quickness. 

Let me know what you think in the comments below. Here are my picks for the Pats…

1st Round (32nd Overall) – Eddie Goldman – DT – Florida State

I’ve often said if I were an NFL GM, I would never take anyone other than an offensive or defensive lineman in the first round, unless they were a can’t-miss slam dunk. There are almost never can’t-miss slam dunks at the end of the first round, and with no guard worth a first rounder, I’m sticking with the defensive tackle position and Eddie Goldman.

Last year, I was all over Dominique Easley and I’ve gone back to the position again as Goldman would be a perfect addition to the Pats’ rotation at DT. Despite the loss of Vince Wilfork, I wouldn’t call DT the biggest need in the draft, but I think Goldman would have the biggest impact.

Even with Wilfork playing at a high level last season, the Pats often struggled to win at the line of scrimmage with their defensive line. They were 32nd in Football Outsiders’ Power DVOA rankings and 28th in their Stuffed Ranking. 

So while there are some promising young players like Easley, Sealver Siliga, Chris Jones and even Antonio Johnson on the roster, along with veteran Alan Branch, I’m still not convinced they have the talent just yet to be a dominant front.

Goldman would give them more potential in that area. While there are other players in this DT class to consider, like Malcom Brown and Jordan Phillips, I think Goldman’s size and playing style best fit the Patriots.

His lack of pass rush doesn’t concern me given what he’ll be asked to do in New England – eat space and dominate blockers in the middle of the line. At 6′4″, 336 pounds he can be moved into a variety of spots on the DL just like Wilfork was. He’s not going to step in and replace Wilfork instantly, but he’ll provide insurance for Siliga, who dealt with multiple injuries last season, and raise the ceiling of just how good this front can be.

2nd Round (64th Overall) – Tre Jackson – G – Florida State

The second round seems like the sweet spot for the Patriots to find a guard who can immediately step in and start for them. Tre Jackson is the choice here as even though I like AJ Cann a little better, I think he goes early-to-mid second round. Laken Tomlinson could also garner consideration around here.

The Patriots need guards, that’s obvious and Jackson has the necessary temperament to step in next to his former Seminole teammate Bryan Stork right away at right guard.

Last year Stork mentioned how the Seminoles offensive line studied the Patriots offensive line extensively. That’s part of the reason Stork was an instant starter at center and there’s no reason to think Jackson wouldn’t excel in the same transition.

Some of the knock on Jackson is that his technique needs to be cleaned up and there’s no better place for that to happen than in Foxboro.

Perhaps the biggest question is how versatile Jackson is. If he can also play on the left side he becomes even more of a slam dunk. But even as a right-guard only, he’ll bring immediate value.

3rd Round (96th Overall) – Justin Coleman – CB – Tennesee

Some might have the Pats taking a cornerback before this, and while it’s certainly a possibility, I’m fine waiting on a player like Coleman in the third.

The biggest question surrounding the Pats taking a corner is do they go back toward more zone corners – guys who can pattern read, put their foot in the dirt and attack the ball/ballcarrier downhill – or do they want to find someone who can excel more in man coverage despite losing Revis and Browner?

Coleman has good size and superior quickness and strength – he was a top performer at the combine in bench press, three-cone drill, 20-yard shuttle and 60-yard shuttle.

His comfort in zone and ability to play special teams, along with an aggressive/physical play demeanor all make him a very good fit in a secondary that needs depth.

There are questions if he can play outside in the NFL, and I’m not sure how much his value would drop if he was deemed a slot-only guy. But overall, he checks almost every box the Patriots have traditionally liked in their secondary and he could compete to contribute immediately at least as a dime back.

3rd Round (97th Overall, Compensatory) – Daryl Williams – T/G – Oklahoma

I think the Pats have to double dip at guard and Daryl William is an excellent fit. He played mostly right tackle at Oklahoma but also had a stint at left tackle. His lack of athleticism prompts many to believe he’s headed to guard in the NFL.

Described as a powerful player with excellent football character and work ethic, Williams would give the Pats another potential starter on the inside of their offensive line along with Jackson. 

Balancing one of them at left guard and one at right guard will be the key to whichever guards the Pats select in the draft. I’d bet we definitely see one rookie starting inside this season, and I don’t think it’s entirely out of the question to see two, though that might not happen until well into the season.

4th Round (101st Overall, Via TB – Logan Mankins) – Lorenzo Mauldin – LB – Louisville

My flip-flopping between offense and defense continues as the Pats reinforce their linebacking corps with Lorenzo Mauldin in the fourth round. 

Mauldin has one of those stories that make you root for him – he grew up in 16 different foster homes and lost a scholarship to South Carolina, being told they no longer had room. The Pats always seem to bring guys like Mauldin, who have overcome a lot, into their program.

Mauldin played mostly a stand-up linebacker role at Louisville and while I’m projecting him to a similar spot on the Pats, he’ll have less edge responsibility in their system.

He’s a closer fit to Dont’a Hightower than Jamie Collins, despite being closer in frame to Collins. It’s his physicality that puts him more likely on the strongside, which could allow Hightower some more flexibility on the inside.

His pass rush skills would be a good asset off the edge, especially next to Ninkovich. While his biggest adjustment will be playing in space more than the straightforward approach he had at Louisiville. 

In time he would develop into a great compliment to the Mayo/Hightower/Collins linebacker grouping.

4th Round (131st Overall) – Obum Gwachum – DE – Oregon St.

The Pats also seem to have a soft spot for physical freak projections and that’s just what Gwachum is. Just a year removed from switching positions from receiver to defensive end, Gwachum will need time to develop in the Pats system.

At 6′5″, 246 pounds, there’s some uncertainty where he might end up. Can he add 20 pounds? Because then he could be a defensive end. He has the necessary fight to hold the edge, but having the strength to do so is something else entirely.

If he can’t put on that much weight he could project to a weakside linebacker spot, or at worst a designated pass rusher off the edge. He could immediately play special teams and that is critical to his value and sticking on the 53-man roster in his first season.

All these positions will require significant development, but Gwachum is an explosive player and has the right mental makeup to make the leap. Belichick would have some fun with him.

6th Round (177th Overall, Via TB – Jonathan Casillas) –  Bobby McCain – CB – Memphis

McCain embodies a lot of what I see in this year’s cornerback class – some good Patriots fits, but they’re undersized. Still, there’s always a need for defensive backs and McCain is the kind of quick-twitch ballhawk that fits well in the Patriots’ system.

He was a top performer at the combine in the long jump, three cone drill and both shuttles. He played both inside and outside at Memphis and returned kicks, so he could contribute in a number of different ways.

We can’t get too caught up in how it will all come together, that’s for competition and (unfortunately) injuries to decide.

7th Round (219th Overall, Via TEN – Akeem Ayers) – AJ Derby – TE – Arkansas

Derby is just one of those guys that screams Patriots to me. He played both quarterback and linebacker prior to moving to tight end, but he instantly became a weapon who could line up all over the field.

His experience in a similar offense at Arkansas would help his transition to the pros as well.

He’ll need time to develop like everyone taken on Day Three, but he’s just the kind of physical and versatile playmaker the Pats love to plug in and see where he fits.

7th Round (253rd Overall, Compensatory) – John Crockett – RB – North Dakota St.

If there was an area of debate based on this mock draft, it would almost certainly be not taking a running back until this last slot. I could easily see them taking one in the third or fourth round, but I’ve put it off here simply because I see more impact players elsewhere earlier.

Crockett has good size and comes from a pro style offense, and he was a top performer at the combine in both vertical and broad jump. That signals explosiveness. 

He can do a little of everything and while he’ll need time to develop, he has the kind of style that could really fit what the Patriots ask of their running backs. The fact that his nickname is Taz only adds to how much I like him.

Pats Posits: The 2015 Campaign

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Here it is, your 2015 Patriots schedule. So what are the takeaways?

The road to San Francisco isn’t exactly treacherous, but it certainly will provide plenty of challenges, so it might be a little early to start looking for tickets for Super Bowl 50.

Bye Week is Week 3 – Always would prefer it be later rather than just a few short weeks after they break training camp. But having two big road games coming out of the week off should give BB a good chance to plan for Romo and Luck back-to-back. Of course this includes 10 days off after their opener as well, so it will be a slow start to the season before things really kick in in October.

Divisional Games – The road to the playoffs always starts through the division and I like how they’re spread out – one in early September, then two at home back-to-back in late October, then one in November, then finish off the season with two away games. Hopefully those last two are meaningless because if the division is still in question at the end, things could get a little dicey.

Primetime – Two Thursday Night national games including the opener, two Sunday Night national games and one Monday nighter.

General posits:

It’s a forgiving September which is a good thing since the Pats usually have at least a couple where they’re flat and one all-out stinker around then. That at Buffalo Week 2 has always been a close one and with Rex there now I don’t expect anything different.

October might very well define the season with big away games at Dallas and Indy, then hitting the Jets and Dolphins back-to-back. Having those games at home is a big plus.

After a MNF game vs. the Bills they’ll have a short turnaround to get out to Denver to play the Broncos on Sunday Night Football.

The potential gimme games are spread out nicely. Jaguars in September, Redskins in early November, Titans in late December. No game is a true gimme in the NFL, but at least on paper their easier games come at good times.

However their long Thursday Night – Sunday mini-bye week comes leading up the Redskins. But that will be a welcome 10-day break in early November.

Overall it’s not quite the bear than 2014′s schedule was, but there are plenty of challenges just like there always is. The meaningfulness of those last two divisional road games is what will be most interesting to see play out.

Once again, the rest of the AFC East must beat the Patriots in Foxboro if they’re to have any chance at all.

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I’ve kept relatively quiet on Aaron Hernandez since his arrest, but with today’s guilty verdict I felt like it was appropriate to make one last post. The above GIFset is from 2011, when Gronk and Hernandez were the toast of the football world as the Pats’ two tight end offense destroyed the rest of the NFL.

It’s hard to believe now that the two were linked so closely in those early few years, now things couldn’t be much different. 

Justice won today and really, everyone else lost. Odin Lloyd’s family, Hernandez, the Patriots, the NFL, the fans… it’s just sad all the way around. The Lloyd family gets closure and we can all close the book on Aaron Hernandez, but there are no winners.

The lasting image in my mind is that of Hernandez celebrating after scoring a touchdown in Super Bowl 46. Someday he’ll be an old man in jail telling some other young inmate about that moment, that he had a huge contract and the world on a string and he threw it all away.

I can understand the Patriots taking a chance on someone like Hernandez. When he was coming out it appeared his only issue was marijuana which is common and probably not that far off from being legalized. 

Perhaps they could’ve done more to investigate some of the covered-up violent episodes that slowly came out after his arrest, but still, this is the NFL, where violent alpha males try to kill each other once a week. Those kind of people aren’t always model citizens.

But being drafted by a team so close to his home is probably the worst thing that could’ve happened to Hernandez. He would’ve been best served far, far away from Connecticut.

Still, the murder of Odin Lloyd didn’t have much to do with Hernandez’s past in Connecticut. It was Hernandez’s short temper and paranoia that likely would’ve gotten him into trouble no matter where he landed.

Having a couple hometown friends who would do anything asked of them so close by just enabled Hernandez to think he could get away with anything, even a sloppy murder just a short distance from his home.

Hernandez’s three seasons will always be a grim footnote in Patriots history, but also a sad one of lives lost and talent wasted.

Hernandez’s past and demons are well-chronicled, but he had a chance to put that all behind him, to have a successful career on a team that wanted him around long-term. But like so many young athletes who are given so much so soon, Hernandez never truly grew up and only become more entitled with success.

Now he’ll have the rest of his life behind bars to consider just how close he was to having it all, instead of being a murderer who once caught a touchdown in the Super Bowl.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/ive-kept-relatively-quiet-on-aaron-hernandez/

Pats Posits on Preseason Schedule

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Today is the day of the most anticlimactic news of the offseason – the release of the preseason opponents. Not the dates or the times, just whose mostly scrubs will play whose mostly scrubs this summer.

Of course this pales in comparison to the real schedule that will be out in a couple weeks and the Pats opening night opponent which could come as soon as next week, but for now we’ll take it.

The things I look for in preseason games are a variety of challenges. Different types of offenses and defenses that will give our team some experience facing schematic departures from what they’ll be seeing when practicing against themselves.

Opening with Green Bay is a nice way to kick things off, especially since they’re a well-coached and established team with an excellent quarterback. That will help as we cycle in the new cornerbacks.

Traveling to New Orleans in Week 2 also provides a top quarterback/coach tandem to go against, but also some experience in a dome. Also Rob Ryan’s defense should provide some good challenges for an offensive line that could very well have some new faces.

Week 3 is usually when we see the most of the starters and going against Carolina on the road will be a great tuneup for Tom Brady and the offense. Cam Newton certainly will present some unique mobile quarterback challenges for the defense as well, something they’ll value after facing two pocket QBs the first two weeks.

Finally, we wrap up with the Giants, per usual. This game is usually a scrub fest so it’s hard to take much out of it other than getting to see Eli Manning’s dumb mug sitting on the sideline in a hat.