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Is Patriots’ Run Defense a Fatal Flaw? — Season Film Review

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While the Patriots defense has been trending up the last few games, I was surprised to see they had fallen from a mid-season 23rd-ranked run defense to 30th in Football Outsider’s DVOA, an analytic that weighs situation and opponent. This is of course about when Dont’a Hightower went on IR, so some drop-off should be expected but it hadn’t been all that glaring to me recently.

If they do have a bad run defense it hasn’t hurt them in the win column. Last week against the Bills they gave up their second-highest yardage total this season (183) and held them to three points. Opening night against the Chiefs (185) remains the highest and only time a team actually ran to victory over New England.

Yardage wise they’re 26th, yards-per-carry they’re 32nd.

So is this a real flaw for the Pats’ defense? Will LeVeon Bell be able to exploit it? Could the Steelers ride that to victory? Miami got a season-low 67 yards on the ground vs. New England and doesn’t look like they’ll do much more this Monday night.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the bigger running plays against and how much impact they had on the game.

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Two Key Plays: Patriots Defense at the end of the first half

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The Patriots’ third down defense is off to a strong start in 2017. After losing three key pass rushers this last offseason, the youngsters consisting of Trey Flowers, Adam Butler, Dietrich Wise and Cassius Marsh have shown consistent disruption getting after the quarterback early on.

After two games, the Patriots defense is tied for 10th on third down at a rate of 34.8 percent. Historically this is even better than the 2015 (37.3, ) and 2016 (36.9), defenses that finished ranked 10th and 7th respectively. Yes, it’s just two games, but it’s a good start and nice to see an injection of youth and promise at a critical area. One of need especially this year.

Let’s take a look at a two-down sequence to see how the third, and fourth-down defense allowed the Patriots to pull away toward victory.

As you can see below, the situation is that it’s the end of the first half and the Saints are just outside the redzone, down by two scores. Whether or not the game stays close depends on the Saints getting points here before getting the ball to start the second half. It’s a third and three, favorable distance for an offense, who can run or pass.

The Patriots appear to be in man defense, and with Elandon Roberts still in the game, they still have a pretty good run-defending linebacker behind a light front. Still, they’re clearing expecting pass.

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Patriots vs. Eagles Film Review

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Little late on my film review this week, usually I like to get these things over with after a loss. Still it was good to get a closer look at things and shockingly I started with the offensive side of the ball.

Here’s what stood out in the All-22.

– The Eagles rushed only three guys a lot in this one, often with four deep defenders and their other four in the middle zones. It was effective because the offense is just not as sharp as it was with Edelman and Gronk.

– Keshawn Martin is playing the Edelman role in the offense now, but he struggles to get open quickly and definitely doesn’t have the surest hands either. Another thing that stuck out with him was how he couldn’t quite run the rub routes like Edelman does. This is a fine line between doing it well and getting a penalty, he just doesn’t have the experience and savvy quite yet.

– Replacing Gronk was done by committee as expected, you can’t just plug Chandler into the Y-TE role and ask him to block like Gronk does so Watson and Williams had magnified roles. Chandler (at the 46 yard line) should’ve gotten the ball on the first third down of the game below, instead Brady tried to hit LaFell deep, a recurring theme in this one. Just seems like Brady doesn’t quite trust Chandler yet and when he does go to him Chandler’s been inconsistent. Still a work in progress there.

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– I’d like to see more of James White, or at least see him made more of a focal point in the offense rather than just a rotational guy, which he still seemed to be despite his best statistical game of his career. Each week he’s taking small steps, but if the Pats are going to make a Super Bowl run I believe they have to embrace White more.

– Always hate to be critical of Brady but this wasn’t a great game for him. I think part of it is just trying to do too much, looking too hard for kill shots. There are guys open but he’s not finding them and often when he is, they’re dropping the ball. They had 17 third downs against the Eagles and 11 of them were eight yards or longer. That’s not winning on first and second down, and when they really got away from the run in the second half, Brady missing the easy 4-6 yarders really started to hurt.

– Glad that Josh Kline was at practice on Wednesday, but Fletcher Cox pretty much had his way with him all game long.

– Nothing against the guy personally, but Brandon Bolden might be my least favorite Patriots running back of all time. Pretty much the opposite of dynamic. As I’ve said before, he gets what’s there and no more.

– Again, why they abandoned the run in the second half I have no idea. They ran it 8 times in the second half, four of which were Brady sneaks. In the first half they ran it 17 times and averaged over four yards-per-carry.

– The play before Brady’s goal line pick six the Eagles got instant pressure while Cannon/Jackson/Stork and White were trying to block just two guys. Just gross. See below…

– Incredible how smooth Brady was on the trick play where he caught the ball for 36 yards. But right after that came his second interception which I’d say should not have been thrown even if LaFell broke off the route. Too many chuck-it-ups in this one and I feel like Brady was again going for a kill shot when they just needed a score on this drive more than a big play.

– The furious comeback fell just short, but credit to the Pats for hanging in there. Always a good sign and the biggest silver lining that can be taken from this loss. But the other silver lining has to be James White. He earned more trust in this one and is the only new guy showing consistent separation and ability to make defenders miss. We could look back as this being the game that the offense started to return to form with White being a big piece going forward.

Patriots vs. Broncos All-22 Review: Defense Edition

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Had a chance to go back through the All-22 and as always, it was informative. In a lot of ways I don’t feel like I’ve truly seen the game until I watch the All-22, as you can see exactly who the personnel is at all times, what the formations are and what the coverages are.

Little bit more mixing coverages in this one, but on third downs it was all Cover-1 Man. Still plenty of zone throughout the game. In terms of fronts they were so varied, 4-3 under, 3-4. Little of everything.

I know it’s been a popular refrain this week to mention how many rushing yards the Broncos had when Hightower went out, but honestly he wasn’t overly impactful in run defense before he went out with the injury. I was expecting to see him at the center of most of the run tackles, but he was more often playing strong side linebacker where he did a good job setting the edge, or he was more concerned with coverage. 

No, the problem with the run defense is that Freeny and Mayo aren’t that good. Both just lack any pop to make an impact and all of the significant runs the Broncos put together in the first half were often because Freeny was late to fill, went to the wrong hole or simply wasn’t strong enough to physically close a hole. So you put Collins back in there (with Hightower at some point) and they’ll be okay. But if I was attacking this Patriots defense I’d run right at Freeny. Mayo has been better in recent weeks but still lacks that pop he had before the injury. His missed tackle at the end of the first half on the touchdown run was a prime example.

I already wrote about him earlier but Malcom Brown continues to jump off the screen to me. So athletic inside, he consistently splits double teams and makes plays in the run game. He won’t pile on stats at his position but he’s as good a rookie defensive tackle as you’re going to find. Earlier in the third quarter Brown absolutely owned Evan Mathis on a run stop.

Jabaal Sheard is also having a great season and is the perfect fit we all thought he would be. Funny when things work out like that. But he was causing problems all night. Quick and strong off the ball, he’s a beast to deal with and this three-man rotation they have with him, Nink and Chan has been long-needed. He has such a shiftiness to him that makes it tough for blockers to know his intentions. Often it sets them up for a bull rush that they’re not prepared for.

The delayed middle linebacker blitz was a go-to in this one, but it just doesn’t have the same kind of effectiveness when it’s Mayo/Freeny instead of Hightower/Collins. 

13:54 4th Quarter, Pats up 21-7, Broncos at the Pats’ 31 facing third-and-five after the Chris Harper muffed punt. This was the turning point of the game and it’s interesting that here is where the Pats sent a six-man blitz, a rarity for BB. Nobody found a rushing lane and Osweiler had the poise to find Emmanuel Sanders for 17 yards. The next play they’d score and it was a ball game. This is why being aggressive on defense can bite you on the ass.

McCourty’s missed tackle in the backfield on the second Broncos touchdown was pretty bad. How the running back got outside of Ryan and Butler too was a head scratcher. But again, not really a play Hightower would’ve had an effect on.

Nice goal line stand in the fourth quarter to force a field goal by the Broncos. Who would have ever though Logan Ryan would own Demaryius Thomas?

The three-and-out the defense forced with just under 5 minutes left in the fourth quarter is what I’ll prefer to remember about this game. Physical possession from Alan Branch and Tavon Wilson who both forced incomplete passes with pressure. Wilson drilled Osweiler. Didn’t remember that in the broadcast.

Now comes the last possession of regulation:

36 yard pass to Thomas: This was just a let it go and let your big receiver go up and get it. Could there have been some disruption to prevent Osweiler from stepping into it? Sure. But it’s hard to stop this play when everything clicks.

39 yard pass to Sanders: Flawless pass, barely any time for any rush to get to Osweiler. Just like the last big one to Thomas he just let it go. But perfect placement. Bravo Brock.

Finally the game winning touchdown in overtime was another toss sweep. You’ll notice the Pats have Sheard and Nink on the left side and no true defensive end on the right. But the key block comes on Chung, which effectively blocks not only Chung, but Freeny and Mayo too. There’s simply no defensive end to set the edge and that’s what springs Anderson because he only had to beat Branch in pursuit, McCourty, who can’t get off his block, and Harmon, who just whiffs in the open field.

So yeah, that sucks. Had Chandler Jones been in at his RDE spot, he very well would’ve blown this play up, so I think part of this has to fall on the coaches because the Broncos kept going to this toss sweep with success.

But overall I feel better now after reviewing the defense. Really it comes does to Collins/Hightower > Freeny/Mayo. Generally the run defense was good except for a few big runs, but I think generally it was because the linebackers were just not impact players. The defensive line played well, but once runs got past them there wasn’t anyone to clean it up like Collins and Hightower usually do.

The Broncos made some big key plays, but I think this is a much different game if Collins and Hightower were in there the whole time. Not to make excuses, but I just hope that’s what we have in any January rematch.

Patriots vs. Giants All-22 Review: Defense Edition

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There are plenty of specifics I’ll dive into a bit later this week, but for now the All-22 viewing is allowing me to process the minutiae of this game a bit better without all the nerves involved.

I think this game was better than a lot of us want to admit, with it really just boiling down to poor third down defense. The imminent return of Jamie Collins will help that.

Otherwise the run defense was stout, the tackle was good and the edge setters did their jobs. The pass rush just couldn’t cause enough problems to get Eli into bad throws on third down. 

Here are my thoughts on the defense after review:

– As usual it was a mix of mostly single high safety man coverage, with some Cover-2 Man mixed in. They went right at Eli which is a nice change from 2011.

– I don’t think the biggest talent problem on the defense is at cornerback, it’s at linebacker after Hightower and Collins. The Giants made a number of plays picking on Jonathan Freeny, especially in the first half. Neither Jerod Mayo nor Jonathan Bostic can do much either. Mayo looked a little better in this one, but overall he still lacks any pop in his game. If Hightower and Collins are healthy and on the field through the playoffs the defense will be a lot better than they were in this one.

– Justin Coleman was clearly playing with one hand, but I’m still not sure if he got yanked because of that or because he had a growing target on his back throughout the first half.

– Even the All-DE pass rush front was failing to generate much disruption. Eli was getting the ball out quick, but he had a good feel for the pocket and even when they flushed him out of it he was able to complete easy checkdowns.

– The run defense was excellent, as the Giants averaged just over 3.5 yards-per-rush on first and second down. The longest run they gave up was 10 yards on the day. 20 runs went for five yards or less, just three went more than five yards. This bodes well for the Bills game. One that went for six yards only had Easley in as a down linemen. Easley should’ve had him in the backfield too.

– The crazy thing to me is that I continue to feel like Easley makes more plays against the run with his burst than he does against the pass. He pushes back his blocker into the backfield and that forces the running back to make an early cut. But on many passing downs he just doesn’t cause the same kind of disruption.

– Interesting to see Chung effectively playing WILB in the 34 above. 

– Couple pressure plays by Hightower and Ninkovich that I missed live and picked up this time. Part of hold their opening second half drive to a field goal.

– PI calls on Chung and Butler on the first drive of the second half were head scratchers. Especially Butler’s where it looks like he didn’t even touch Beckham.

– Sheard just rotated in at defensive end, in the first half, then got some pass rushing snaps in the second half. Didn’t seem like the ankle was an issue, but he wasn’t quite back to where he was early this season. He should make a splash on MNF I’d bet.

– In a lot of ways this felt like last year’s defense, where the outside corners were doing a great job but the slot guys and linebackers were the ones getting picked on. Getting Collins back should help on both fronts due to trickle down and just how much ground he can cover.

– There’s nowhere to go:

– I know a lot of people were running to McCourty’s defense after this one but he missed a few plays in this one. Once he was doubling Rueben Randle under the route and still got beat. Just want to see him make more plays that he should make and has made in the past.

– Seeing more pressure than I remember again, this time Easley forcing Eli off the spot but Eli does a great job with a subtle slide then throwing a strike.

– Yes, this was a blah defensive performance overall but there were some impressive moments, none more than the defense forcing a punt after Brady fumbled on their own 34-yard line. Game was hanging by a thread.

– Ninkovich’s sack that moved the ball back 13 yards was a big part of this, but that sack was helped by great coverage as Eli had to pull it down on two reads before Nink got there.

– The Pats then forced two three and outs with impressive play from Malcolm Butler along with a timely blitz from Patrick Chung. The defense picked the right time to wake up on those two drives with the game in balance, but then came the final drive.

– Pats started rushing three on the first third down. On the second third down with just one yard to go Easley and Brown didn’t give an inch inside, but the Giants still found the yard. Good stoutness up front anyway.

– On the next third down the Giants got 30 yards with the Pats rushing just three again. The rotation on this drive was apparent to keep the pass rush fresh but even that couldn’t get three guys home. Eli easily slid and threw a strike as Melvin got beat in coverage.

– This is what bugs me. Three third downs and they couldn’t get a stop on any of them. I don’t love the rushing three guys here and it killed them on two of them.

– Still the goal line stand was impressive and once again the Pats were prepared for what the Giants were doing down there.

Was this the ‘85 Bears D? No. But this is what the Patriots do. Really what it boils down to was that the pass rush just wasn’t quite firing like it should be. How much can you complain about bad calls, your slot receiver getting picked on or incredible throw-and-catches? We’ve see this before this season against the Jets. When the third down defense doesn’t get off the field they’re in trouble. But in almost every other facet they played well.

And if you can’t be excited about Malcolm Butler after this one I got nothing for you.

Patriots vs. Dolphins All-22 Review: 3rd Down Defense

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Last week in my All-22 review I took a look at the atrocious 3rd down defense against the Jets, so this week I’m following that up looking at how the defense turned things around against the Dolphins on the money down, giving up conversions on just 2-of-11.

The headline is of course pass rush, which was non-existent against the Jets but suddenly great against Miami. If they play like that consistently in the playoffs if won’t matter who’s in the secondary.

Also want to focus on how Collins and Hightower are used on each down.

Here’s a look at all 11 third downs and what the Pats did.

1. 1Q, Pats 7-0, 3rd-and-11,  Matthews 15-yard catch. FIRST DOWN!

The first third down of the day was the worst one as the Pats defense picked up where they had left off against the Jets, giving up a third-and-long.

Pats show Cover-2, but it’s actually Cover-1 with McCourty coming down as the “Robber”. Hightower blitzes off the edge, Collins is in man on the running back. Easley is double teamed and can’t split it. Chandler tries a move back inside but is stood up, while Ninkovich soft rushes and appears to be spying Tannehill. Ryan does get a hand on Matthews, but it’s a good route and a perfect throw. Here you just need Hightower or Jones to win and neither did.

2. 1Q, Pats 7-0, 3rd-and-8, Chandler Jones SACK!

Pats are in Cover-1, Collins in man on the RB, McCourty on the TE. Hightower is off for a three safety/three corner, speed front with Grissom and Easley inside.

This was a designed screen that was blown up by Chung reading it perfectly and Grissom getting after Tannehill with his hair on fire. But it’s Chung that makes Tannehill pull it down. Chandler gets the sack but the play was completely broken down by that point so it’s hard to really say it was all him.

3. 2Q, Pats 7-0, 3rd-and-10, BAD SNAP SAFETY!

Same three-safety/three-corner package as before without Hightower. Cover-1 Robber, with Chung on the TE and McCourty coming down. Collins on the RB. Bad snap makes it easy.

4. 2Q, Pats 9-0, 3rd-and-10, INCOMPLETE!

This time we’ve got three-safety/three-corner but Hightower on for Grissom. Cover-1 Man, Ryan is in off-man coverage and is in perfect position for when the ball has to come out due to the pressure. This time it’s McCourty in coverage on the running back as the Pats rush five. Both Chandler and Ninkovich win inside and Tannehill just has to chuck it. Full credit here to Chandler Jones for a great move.

5. 2Q, Pats 9-0, 3rd-and-10, Chandler Jones SACK!

Interesting package here with four safeties, three corners, two LBs and two DEs. Harmon took the deep middle, while McCourty and Richards played an underneath zone. Chung had the TE (who stayed in to block) while Collins took the RB. But this was all Chandler Jones as he splits the TE/LT double team and gets the sack.

6. 2Q, Pats 12-0, 3rd-and-13, INCOMPLETE (Chung pass defended)

Same four-safety/three-corner look from the last third down with no defensive tackles. Collins is on the RB leaving just 50/54/95 to rush the passer. Was a pretty quick throw, but neither Chandler or Ninkovich made much of an impact on it. Chung plays it perfectly, and Richards helps from his under-zone coverage spot. Really he probably could pick this one.

7. 3Q, Pats 22-7, 3rd-and-1, Miller -2 rush!

Finally a third-and-short and the Pats go to their regular package with 4 DL/3 LB. Nothing technical here, simply Siliga exploding into the seam between the blockers and making the play in the backfield. Hicks also does a good job on his side, as does Freeny who fills well. This is the kind of short yardage play the Patriots have not made enough of in the last two years. Positive sign.

8. 3Q, Pats 22-7, 3rd-and-3, Matthews 4 yard catch FIRST DOWN!

Patriots break out a new look here at the end of the third quarter with Collins and Hightower on the edges, Easley/Grissom in the B gaps and Chandler Jones head-up on the center. Nink comes on a delayed blitz but the Miami OL does a good job pushing the entire pass rush to Tannehill’s right. Matthews gets just enough separation on the drag route and converts the second third-down of the day.

9. 4Q, Pats 29-7, 3rd-and-28, Gray 3-yard catch.

After back to back sacks Miami is in a huge hole. Dolphins just concede with the checkdown and the Pats snuff it out.

10. 4Q, Pats 36-7, 3rd-and-10, Matthews 5-yard catch.

Pats are working in their backups at this point (Hi Jerod Mayo!). Quick throw by Tannehill but good toughness by the defense to fight off blocks and hold him to just 5 yards off the WR screen that Matthews look less than enthusiastic about running.

11. 4Q, Pats 36-7, 3rd-and-23, Incomplete

Last one of the game and the pass rush isn’t exactly rushing like it’s the Super Bowl anymore. Ryan is in off man and plays the in cut well, although I don’t think he got a hand on the ball.

Final Thoughts: It was interesting to see Hightower come off the field on third down in a couple situations. The 4 safety/3 cornerback package was a new twist I don’t recall before, but in tracking all the third downs you can see how they throw new curves in each quarter to keep things fresh. This was a great game for Chandler Jones, and I’d love to see him put three games in Jan/Feb together like this. If he can, the Pats could win the Super Bowl. He’s such a big key because they can scheme him to get one-on-one matchups. Same thing for Sheard once he returns.

Patriots vs. Jets All-22 Review: Defense Edition

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Third down defense was obviously the headline in this one so today we’re just going to take a closer look at some of the more interesting ones. The Jets converted 8-of-14 third downs and really, that’s why this was a ballgame. 

It was frustrating because they executed the early-down gameplan so well. The run defense was truly impressive and that bodes well for the defense long term. But really, pass rush on third down is vital and in this game it was virtually non-existent.

Couple that with some softer man coverage and the Jets were picking up first downs on numerous 3rd-and-longs.

Let’s review the damage…

1. 1Q, Pats 3-0, Jets 3rd & 10, Decker 24 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover 2 Man. Decker motions across formation then runs an in cut across the open flat. Pats rush 3, with Hightower spying Fitzpatrick. Throw comes in rhythm as Easley/Nink are held up. If Hightower drops a bit he might’ve take this throw away, as the MOF is wide open. Butler stumbles at Decker’s stem, and can’t recover.

VERDICT: Quick play, Butler needed better patience as Decker reached the stem of his route. But knowing the MOF was open he should’ve anticipated it was an in cut.

2. 1Q, Pats 3-0, Jets 3rd & 10, Decker 11 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover 1 Man. Butler is off Decker but steps toward him at the snap to get a jam but misses and is in recovery mode the rest of the down. Decker stops and turns, blocking Butler out with his size. This time it’s a traditional pass rush with Collins/Hightower dropping into the flat.  Pocket holds just long enough.

VERDICT: Needed more disruption from one of the front four as Collins/Hightower dropping out did nothing to confuse anyone. That’s where you need Easley to truck someone. Still, Butler was sloppy with his technique and couldn’t recover. Tough gamble on the jam, if he had gotten a hand on Decker the timing might’ve been thrown off.

3. 1Q, Pats 3-0, Jets 3rd & 2 at the Pats 2. Incomplete. STOP!!

Pats in goalline, the Jets try to iso Chung on tight end Cumberland. Probably a touchdown most times, but Chung might’ve gotten a hand in there. Tough to tell from the All-22 view. Pats hold for a field goal.

VERDICT: Get ready for more of these kind of targets, Chung.

4. 1Q, Tied 3-3, Jets 3rd & 4, Decker 17 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover-1 Man. Butler is playing off and this time Decker beats him with an out route. Pats send 6 this time but everyone is picked up and Fitzpatrick makes a quick and perfect throw. 

VERDICT: Every pass rusher is blocked one-on-one and Butler’s coverage is just soft enough for Fitz to throw it in there.

5. 1Q, Tied 3-3, Jets 3rd & 10, Kerley 11 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover-1 Man as Jets run a sort of screen pass into the middle of the defense. Kerley cuts in, Coleman gets picked (probably illegally) and then Fitzpatrick sidearms it to Kerley who makes his way through the middle of the field avoiding tackles from Flowers and Chandler Jones.

VERDICT: Nice play design by the Jets to attack the vacated middle of the field. Perhaps a little better awareness from the defensive line could’ve stopped him short, but no one had a clean shot.

I’d just like to pause here to point out we just ended the first quarter and the Jets have already picked up four of five third downs and three of those were from 3rd&10. Unacceptable and really set a crappy tone for the game.

6. 2Q, Jets 10-3, Jets 3rd & 2, Incomplete.

The Pats are in Cover-1 Man and have six in the box, rushing four then dropping out Ninkovich and Hightower. It looks like Jamie Collins gets a hand on the pass, but Logan Ryan has a solid jam and Marshall can never get going anyway.

VERDICT: Keep up the solid jams.

7. 2Q, Tied at 10, Jets 3rd & 8, Decker 7 yards. PUNT!

Pats in Cover-2 Man as the Jets have a bunch formation to the right. Butler seems leans the wrong way and that’s more than enough for Decker on the out route. Pressure is right there should the throw not be there but it is.

VERDICT: Butler just didn’t seem to close ground as quickly as we’ve seen in the past and took some false steps that he couldn’t recover from. Still, he tackled well enough and held the Jets a yard short.

8. 2Q, Pats 13-10, Jets 3rd & 3, Fitzpatrick sacked by Collins. PUNT!

Pats in Cover 1-Man with the Jets having two stacked receivers on either side of the formation. Hightower makes this play by blitzing from his off-line linebacker spot and pancaking Mangold into Fitzpatrick’s feet just as he sets. Collins shows good patience and finishes Fitz off as he tried to scramble.

VERDICT: Someone made a play on third down and they’re off the field. Shocker.

9. 3Q, Pats 16-10, Jets 3rd & 7, Smith 7 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover-2 Man as Smith runs a drag across the field and Fitzpatrick finds him off his back foot at the last second. This one was close as you can see from the pic below. Easley does a good job and that in turn opens things up for Ninkovich as well. Just a half a second too slow or else this one is a sack, and an ugly one.

VERDICT: Almost doesn’t count in pass rushing. Tough play for Coleman navigating all the traffic.

10. 3Q, Pats 16-10, Jets 3rd & 5, Marshall 13 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover-2 Man, Jets motion Marshall out of the backfield, Ryan gets hands on him but doesn’t disrupt him. No pressure on Fitzpatrick.

VERDICT: Jets could make this all day with that kind of pocket and he could’ve throw to Kerley as well in the flat.

11. 3Q, Pats 16-10, Jets 3rd & 7, Decker 23 yards. FIRST DOWN!

Pats in Cover-1 Man, Decker goes in motion and gets knocked off course by both Butler and Chandler Jones off the snap. Still he recovers and runs a post. Fitzpatrick is unpressured (Pats only rushed 3) and sticks a perfect pass in there. Huge play.

VERDICT: Even with Hightower and Chandler lurking in passing zones Fitzpatrick still found Decker who got back on course quicker than Butler did after the jam at the line.

12. 4Q, Jets 17-16, Jets 3rd & 7 from NE12, INCOMPLETE! 

The third down stop that saved the game, this was a critical one. Pats are in a Cover-2 Man and rush 4. Marshall seemed to push Logan Ryan away and that in turn seemed to unsettle him for the back shoulder throw. Probably should’ve been a touchdown, but there was a bit of pressure coming with Hightower.

VERDICT: Not great, but the Pats kept the points gap manageable. 

Overall I think the headline for all these third down mostly-failures was just no one making plays up front. The only disruption caused by anyone was one Hightower blitz. Otherwise there was limited disruption. 

Coverage-wise Butler seemed to lack his usual anticipation and burst. I think this might’ve been his flattest game this season and he paid the price for it. 

Still, the Pats won the war and their gameplan was generally effective. If they could’ve just gotten off the field on a couple more third downs their margin of victory would’ve been certainly higher.