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A Closer Look at Patriots Defensive Personnel and Roles

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Each year the Patriots defensive schemes slowly evolve over the course of the year and each year is unique. I always pray that people can get past the simplistic 3-4 vs. 4-3 debate which is archaic and meaningless now.

The Patriots trend of heavily using sub defense continued this season, as did their evolution to incorporating more Cover-2 Zone as the season progressed. The line between defensive ends and outside linebackers continues to blur, while the importance of having three good safeties and three good corners has become more imperative.

Here’s a look at some of the formations the Patriots utilized in the Super Bowl and what they might be able to tell us about their offseason plan of attack.

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Pats Posits: Patriots 2017 Offseason Primer

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It is time to turn the page to the Patriots 2017 offseason, the relaxed portion of the football cycle where it’s all about team building. I reserve the right to dive back into 2016 without notice, but now the door to 2017 is fully open and there’s plenty of work to do.

Many blogs jump right into the draft but over the years I’ve tried to keep focused on the task at hand,  so I will start with internal free agents, then external free agents and then finally, the draft.

I’m going to avoid getting too analytical in this kickoff post. This will just be more of a general overview of what’s to come in the next few months. It’s about information gathering and getting a feel for where the holes are and, most importantly, how the Pats can stay ahead of the curve. That often means making hard decisions on players we all love.

First, let’s start with the depth chart, with all the free agents (restricted and unrestricted) removed. Those highlighted in light red are entering the last years of their deals and could be extension candidates. Those highlighted in green are possible cut/restructure candidates. Those in red are dealing with injuries from the season. Starters are bolded.

Note – Sebastian Vollmer spent the season on the PUP list so he should still be under contract, though it’s expected he could retire.

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5 Possible Shocking Patriots Cuts

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Patriots shocking cutLabor Day weekend can be one of the craziest times of the football year for Patriots fans. There’s always at least one bombshell that Bill Belichick drops on us, cutting or trading a player we all thought would play a significant part in a season that starts in mere days.

It puts many of us in a tailspin. What does it mean? Are they not “all in” this year? Was that guy a bad dude? Are they cheap? Do they not want to win the Super Bowl this year. What. Is. Happening.

Now before you let any of these drive you insane, remember two things. 1) None of them will probably happen, but… B) That’s what we would’ve thought about Lawyer Milloy, Richard Seymour, Logan Mankins, Brandon Meriweather and even Jonas Gray to name a few. And the tailspin described above is more or less what happened with each of those releases.

The formula is pretty simple really. Either guys aren’t as good as we thought they were or, they’re entering the final year of a deal and on the backside of their career. That’s a prime time to move them and get some value in return. It might be one year too early, but that’s how BB rolls. Better than one year too late.

We already got one kind of surprising (but not for me) trades this offseason that fit this mold with Chandler Jones getting moved. Maybe BB already hit his quota with that one.

Here’s my five (realistic) potential shockers.

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Patriots Keep Branch, Stage Set for Free Agency

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The 2016 NFL league year starts in just hours now and with it will come a flurry of free agency moves mostly made by the bottom third of the league trying to climb back into relevance. As for the Patriots, things have been pretty quiet thus far in the “legal tampering period.” If the last 15 years tell us anything about Bill Belichick and free agency it’s that this time is used to fill holes with at least temporary fixes, most often with castoffs or under-the-radar types who will either blossom in New England or get beaten out by someone else and end up on the side of the road.

There were only two bits of Pats news on Tuesday, that the team had picked up Alan Branch‘s option while also trying to actively retain Akiem Hicks. Reports were that Hicks had as many as 10 other suitors, giving the impression that he’d likely get a more lucrative offer elsewhere.

It seemed like Hicks and Branch were very much connected as they’d be competing for a similar if not the same exact role — starting next to Malcom Brown on the interior. Hicks is younger and has a higher ceiling, but Branch had an excellent year in New England in 2015 and should be expected to do the same in 2016 now that he’s on board. It would still be great to land Hicks as well, but this is a deep year in the draft for defensive tackles so the Pats should ultimately be okay.

And honestly, I thought Hicks was good last year, but the majority opinion now seems to be that he was great. Integral even? I don’t know. He had 1 solo tackle in the playoffs. No sacks. I mean, I get it, he’s 26 has great size and is good against the pass and run. But he’s still not as good as Malcom Brown was as a rookie so all this buzz is just for DT #2 and with Easley back (and hopefully putting together his first healthy season) the pass rushing DT role isn’t empty either. So yeah, they’ll be fine if he walks. And if they keep him, it could make Branch expendable if he comes to camp out of shape, which is always possible.

So that’s all we get on the eve of Free Agency, and really, it shouldn’t be all that surprising. This is what the Patriots do. Play it cool and under the radar, until all of sudden… SPLASH.

I think the Pats should add a running back, wide receiver and middle linebacker as priorities in free agency. Matt Forte seems to be more and more a pipe dream the more I think about him, and I just don’t see an ideal X-WR to replace Brandon LaFell. At MLB I think they could look at a veteran and preserve him in a two-down run-stopping role.

Put it this way, they must get better at those positions, and expecting a rookie who won’t come until 60th overall to step in and start at those spots is foolish. At the very least they’ll put a vet in those positions and make the rookie win the role.

Things will get interesting quickly tomorrow, and nowhere will that be more true that here on the blog where I’m relaunching the Prop Shop with a collection of t-shirts I hope you all like. Let the 2016 journey begin!

Regrouping After Two Patriots Signings and an Injury

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Yesterday was a little hectic on the real job front so not only didn’t I get a chance to discuss all the Patriots news that broke, I also didn’t get to the All-22 offense review.

Here’s the first part of that equation. As you probably know by now, Chandler Jones is out a month with a hip injury. The good news is that the bye should be included in that month so optimistically he misses the Bears, Broncos and then the Colts. 

Of course those last two will have playoff implications and that’s where it hurts most. 

To compensate for both the loss of Chandler, as well as Jerod Mayo, the Pats signed Akeem Ayers and are expected to sign DL Alan Branch. How both will fit and how they’ll force an evolution in scheme is anyone’s guess right now.

But my biggest concern right now is what it’s always been for the Patriots defense since 2010 – third down defense. Chandler was one of the only guys getting consistent pressure, and even he wasn’t as consistent as we would’ve liked.

You criticize the Patriots however you want, but at the end of the day, third down defense has been what has killed this team. And despite their best secondary in years, along with the first-round drafting of a pass rushing specialist, their problems have continued this year. In fact they’ve regressed so far.

Now without their best pass rusher and on the verge of facing three very good quarterbacks, including that Peyton Manning guy, the Pats have a huge challenge in front of them.

Branch has been out of football a while. Considering his size I don’t think we’re seeing him much if at all until after the bye week. He’ll likely be used as a defensive end, mostly on early downs.

As for Ayers he does have some versatility and some pass rush ability. But he was buried on the Titans’ depth chart, so to expect him to come in and be the kind of pass rusher the Pats need might be a little too lofty an expectation.

It’s the subpackages that concern me, not how this impacts the 34 or 43. Ayers should allow some flexibility to move Hightower and Collins around. But can he come in and bring pressure from the right defensive end spot like Jones did?

I’d expect against the Broncos and Colts they would be almost entirely in sub-packages, so Ayers could step in immediately with a significant role.

There’s no question, Rob NInkovich and Dominique Easley must elevate their game, especially getting after the quarterback. Easley looked okay at defensive end filling in for Chandler against the Bengals, but I don’t think he’s ready to be an every down player in that spot. 

Zach Moore has only played 27 snaps so far this season, but that would seem very likely to increase substantially this weekend.

Most likely is that we’ll see a steady rotation at the defensive end and outside linebacker spots until the Pats (hopefully) find something that works. It’s only three games, but they really must find a way to at least split with Denver and Indy to keep their chances of a playoff bye. That’s obviously a tall order, since both teams are firing on all cylinders on both sides of the ball.

In the long run, losing Chandler for a period of time could be a positive in a similar way to how the Pats got to find and develop Chris Jones and Sealver Siliga after last year’s injury to Vince Wilfork. 

They had no depth at defensive end and linebacker as it was, so this is a chance to get some of the unproven guys some experience. Maybe once Chandler returns we’ll have an even better front seven with Ayers and Branch in the mix to take some of the load off of him.

Ultimately the Pats have no one to blame but themselves for these problems. They played with fire having no depth behind their starting linebackers and defensive ends and now they will pay a price for it. 

How much it hurts them in January will remain to be seen, but no one circles the wagons like New England.