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Valuing versatility over schematic fit in potential Patriots

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Yesterday we posted our Patriots big board which lists the draft prospects we like most for the Pats. I wanted to clarify some things as to what my thinking is when looking for guys who fit, mainly for the front seven on the defensive side of the ball.

This is the first year which I don’t feel beholden to specific schematic traits for personnel. This means I don’t have a 3-4 or 4-3 box that each prospect needs to fit neatly into. I never thought I’d be the one to do this but let’s declare the whole 3-4 vs. 4-3 debate dead, and useless to take into account.

Take this quote from Greg Cosell as evidence of why:

“With the Patriots, it’s complicated. You’ll see a three-technique. You’ll see a nose shade, not a nose tackle. Sure, there were snaps where they played a true 3-4 with a true nose tackle or a zero technique and two ends who are five techniques. But just because you have three down linemen, it doesn’t mean you are playing a 3-4.”

The number one thing that I want along the defensive line is versatility.  The quickness to get up the field, and also the strength to hold ground. Just behind that I’m looking for violent, physical players who can dominate in the trenches. And if they’re clean prospects who are football nerds who may have been captains even better. 

Gone are the days when we would specifically look for a five-technique 3-4 defensive end or a two-gapping nose tackle. I love Michael Brockers not because I think he’s a “Richard Seymour replacement”, but because he can do a number of different things that will give Belichick creative freedom like he has with Wilfork.

The other position I’d like to discuss is difficult-to-project DE/OLB. In years past we specifically were trying to fill a Willie McGinest or Rosevelt Colvin void, axing any player who didn’t fit the 6-04, 250 minimum framework.

Those benchmarks are nice, and there’s no doubt a tall prospect with long arms is better suited to battling offensive tackles, but ultimately it’s about the player and not the player’s dimensions.

Again, what I believe the Patriots need most right now at the OLB spot is athleticism. It’s not just about a pass rusher, it’s about finding someone who can make an impact in pass coverage as well. This is why I really like Shea McLellin over guys like Andre Branch and Melvin Ingram, and even Whitney Mercilus to some extent.

Branch and Ingram are talented prospects, but when you’re trying to run a amoeba defense that changes every week you need players who can do multiple things.

Rob Ninkovich is a good example of what I’m talking about here. Ninkopoop doesn’t have the prerequisite size that we always talk about, but he’s tough against the run, can put his hand down and rush the passer, and has grabbed a fair share of interceptions.

There’s a reason the Patriots have given him two (!) contract extensions. He’s a swiss army knife, and when I see guys like Branch and Ingram I see buck knives. Really good for one thing, but they’re always going to be doing that one thing game to game, snap to snap.

In the modern NFL if the good quarterback knows what defense is coming he’s going to torch it. Versatility enables unpredictability, that’s why I see it as a paramount trait when looking at potential Patriots picks for all defensive positions.

2012 Patriots Draft Big Board

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Here’s the 2012 Patriots Big Board. These are draft prospects I like and think fit the Patriots style of play, roughly in the order I value them.

All comments, criticism, advice welcome. I make no claims of being a scout. This is simply a fun exercise for myself to find quality applicants for the New England Football Machine. I’ll allow this list to go as high as 50, so I’m still looking, but the goal as it was last year is to nail as many Pats picks as possible. Hence slots won’t be wasted on positions that aren’t glaring needs.

Here is the 2011 Big Board.

Here is our 2012 Patriots-only mock draft.

  • posted 4/2
  • updated 4/4
  • updated 4/8
  • updated 4/11
  • updated 4/12
  • updated 4/20
  • updated 4/23
  1. Morris Clayborne, CB, LSU: Devin McCwho?
  2. David Decastro, G, Stanford: I know we already have a mauler, what a dream it would be to have two.
  3. Fletcher Cox, DE, South Carolina: Versatile defensive lineman prospect who could contribute to the Pats immediately as an interior rusher while developing the strength and technique to play the other line spots. Reminds be somewhat of Cameron Jordan last year and that scares me, but I think Cox is the better prospect.
  4. Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia: Great size and length, good guard prospect with experience at tackle. Surprising agility for a big man, and would fit in well with the rest of the Monster Squad. A potential long term solution at right guard would be an excellent hole to fill this year.
  5. Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama: Long corner prospect, who could potentially be moved to safety. Would bring some needed talent, size and playmaking ability to the back end of the Pats defense.
  6. Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina: Gilmore intrigues me as a potential safety conversion guy, especially given the safety class this year. He has all kind of Pats potential factors (durable, hard working, soft spoken). If he doesn’t have the corner speed he could go to safety, but overall a solid and popular Pats mock draft pick and rightly so.
  7. Michael Brockers, DE, LSU: Brockers is still an ascending prospect, but in the exact mold of what the Patriots need most: versatile defensive lineman with the size and strength to do a number of different things. Brockers had a great year in 2011 as a Sophomore, and in the words of one scout “played with great passion”. If he puts that passion into being a professional football player he could be a dominant, versatile force. Plus he is a clean prospect off-field and injury-wise.
  8. Kendall Reyes, DT, UCONN: A popular Pats mock draft pick who’s a two-time captain who could develop the strength to two gap, but already has the speed for interior rush.
  9. Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska: Versatile corner described as “feisty”. Physical and tough, he can play inside or outside, and would give the Pats a solid man-coverage corner. The only question is does he have the FBI to play for BB.
  10. Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: Not the outside speed demon some might be hoping for, but has size/strength like Vincent Jackson, a known Patriots favorite. The Pats used to look for physical receivers like David Givens and Floyd seems like he could be in that mold, while also giving NE an outside receiving threat.
  11. Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama: On paper Upshaw doesn’t have the ideal size for a Patriots OLB nor does he have the measurables that will wow anyone, but when I watch him play he looks like a Patriot. He’s assignment sound, strong at the point of attack and can get after the passer enough to be a threat. I was consistently impressed by his discipline and instincts. He plays the way the Patriots want their defense to play, regardless of his measurables.
  12. Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State: Ideal Patriots-type when you look at intangibles, hard worker who’s versatile. 20.5 career sacks. Like Upshaw, he’s a slightly undersized tweener. Upshaw might be a little tougher than him, but McLellin is very athletic in a way that none of our current outside linebackers are. Let’s remember Ninkopoop isn’t exactly ideal size either, and he’s definitely not the kind of athlete McClellin is.
  13. Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin: Scrappy, intelligent and a hard worker. There are some injury concerns but Konz strikes me as a guy who could be tempting to the Pats if he falls to the late-20s. His value could be affected by how secure the Pats feel about Dan Connolly and his future at center. Reinforcing the interior offensive line has to be a priority this year.
  14. Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin: Tough, gritty interior lineman who will need some time to develop. Dependable and “no-nonsense”. I am always intrigued by these Badger offensive linemen. I wonder if this is the year BB grabs one of them.
  15. Brandon Boykin, CB, Georgia: Playmaker in the slot. Plays bigger than frame. Hobbs/Arrington mold. Won Hornung Award for most versatile player in college football. Kickoff returner.
  16. Mark Barron, S, Alabama: It’s a thin safety class this year, and while Barron isn’t an ideal free safety-type fit that could balance out Chung, he’s big and tough in the box,  and fairly instinctive on the back end. Yes, we have Chung, but Barron could allow him to play back a little more, and we all know how many games Chung has missed over the last two years. My gut feel is that a team looking for an answer to Gronkandez will snap him up a little higher than they should.
  17. Dontari Poe, DL, Memphis: Big, raw mass of a man that is willing to work. Never rule out the Pats on athletic freaks (see Solder/Cannon). Having a big inside presence like Poe would really make life difficult for opponents and force them to deal with two athletic forces inside. His production doesn’t overwhelm from a numbers standpoint, and I get a boom or bust feeling with him, but his ceiling under Wilfork’s wing would be amazingly high.
  18. Reuben Randle, WR, LSU: There’s a theme of big receivers in this year’s class and Randle is one of them. Another popular Pats mock draft pick Randle is described as a hard worker and savvy route runner. Could be a prime pick at the bottom of the first round.
  19. Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor: Wright is a tough, fast wide out who lacks size but has everything else you want. A four year starter, described as “top competitor who gives full effort on every snap”. I don’t know what it takes to mesh with TFB but this guy would give it everything he had, and he’s dripping with explosive talent. Yes please.
  20. Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers: Sanu’s savvy, and from a building a team perspective he’s the kind of pick you know exactly what you’re getting with. BB surely knows him well after scouting McCourty and being attached to Greg Schiano’s hip at the league meetings in Florida. He can be a threat in a number of different ways (in the backfield, in the slot, outside) and he’s 6-2, 215. Even with the Pats recent additions at WR they still lack size and Sanu is another big, athletic receiver that is prevalent in this year’s draft class.
  21. Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame: I’m torn on Smith. He looked good at the combine and has impressive size and better than average speed at a position of Pats need. I just am not sold that he’s an instinctive difference-maker and might be limited in his effectiveness in the New England system. But there’s a lot to like. Again, a potential anti-Gronkandez for someone willing to reach.
  22. Jerel Worthy, DL, Michigan State: Worthy isn’t a class Pats fit, but he would bring some quickness and versatility to the interior line, both areas of need.
  23. Billy Winn, DL, Boise State: Winn interests me because he can play a number of spots on the line and has some interior power like Mike Wright had. May not be ideal at any position, but has the demeanor to fit in and do a number of things. Violent in the trenches, also a former wrestler/power lifter.
  24. DeQuan Menzie, CB, Alabama: Started 20 games for Alabama, but doesn’t have the measurables the NFL likes. Sound familiar? He’s physical and aggressive and could be a mid-to-late rounder with potential to play special teams and slot.
  25. Vinny Curry, DE/OLB, Marshall: Great measurables and his leadership qualities. Not completely sold he’s a fit at OLB, but he has the make up of a Patriot and his pass rush skills can’t be ignored. Might be a better 4-3 upfield DE, that drops his value for NE.
  26. Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia: An intriguing prospect with many connections to Belichick. Good tackler, and has a diverse football background in a lot of positions, including kick return ability. Has good length, somewhat reminds me of McCourty.
  27. Chandler Jones, DL/OLB, Syracuse: I like Jones’ length, and while I’m not convinced he has the athleticism to play OLB for the Pats, he’s an interesting prospect. Physically he has the tools, but could he put it all together to play the Elephant role? Maybe. Todd McShay really likes his upside.
  28. Bruce Irvin, OLB, West Virginia: Irvin has some off-the-field questions, but he seems like he has the personality to really flourish in New England. He’s undersized but the ferocity of his play makes up for it. A true athlete who could potentially make an immediate difference on passing downs.
  29. Jayron Hosely, CB, VT: Smart, feisty and aggressive with kick return/punt return potential. Came out early so under the radar early in the process. But a good overall Pats-type DB. Potential to contribute immediately as a slot corner.
  30. Mike Brewster, C, Ohio State: Seasoned, athletic and tenacious center. I really like his size given the Patriots struggles keeping the middle of the pocket intact for TFB to step up.
  31. Ben Jones, C, Georgia: Solid center prospect who played over 40 career starts in the SEC. Leader. Not flashy but a solid pick who would compete for time right away.
  32. Markelle Martin, Safety, Oklahoma State: I really like his physicality and closing ability on the back end. Could be a prime mid-round safety target in a weak safety class. In theory he has everything the Pats like and need if he could live up to his scouting reports.
  33. Derek Wolfe, DL, Cincinnati: Relentless worker and “the spark plug of the defense”, position in NFL tough to project, but could be a 5-technique if he improves his anchor. Still, a tough, highly competitive DL with a good first step.
  34. Brandon Taylor, S, LSU: Team captain and three-year SEC starter. More of a strong safety type, but great leadership qualities and tough player.
  35. Joe Adams, WR, Arkansas: Adams would bring some real explosiveness to the Pats return games, something they badly needed in 2011. If he could develop with Brady as a WR while earning a roster spot via special teams he could add a dynamic versatile presence on offense in coming years.
  36. Christian Thompson, FS, SC State: A favorite of Wes Bunting, Thompson has good speed and the athleticism to develop on the back end. NFP has him as their 2nd ranked free safety.
  37. Josh Chapman, NT, Alabama: Similar to the mold of Wilfork, Chapman can hold his ground against the best of them. Question is how versatile he is, can he be more than just a NT?
  38. Kheeston Randall, DT, Texas: Solid character prospect who’s “immoveable” by a single blocker. Projects to a 5-technique in the Patriots defense.
  39. Malik Jackson, DE, Tennesee: Developmental 5-tech, with some scheme versatility. Will need time to develop, but has the physical tools. Saw time all over the defensive line on passing downs. Has work to do, but has the frame to grow into a beast.
  40. Robert Turbin, RB, Utah State: Physical, aggressive and diverse. Definitely reminiscent of the Law Firm in both his dreads and running style.
  41. Tramain Thomas, S, Arkansas: A 3-year SEC starter who wasn’t invited to the combine? Pats alert! Undersized, and often over aggressive, but a smart back end player who has range and can make plays on the ball.
  42. Asa Jackson, CB, Cal Poly: Jackson fits the mold of Pats corners from yesteryear, with also some return ability.
  43. Trumaine Johnson, CB, Montana: Good size, long arms, ability to play press. Will need time coming from a small school, but looks like he would add a missing element to the Pats secondary.
  44. Cam Johnson, DL, Virgina: Relentless worker who plays with violence, he plays the way the Pats like, but it’s a struggle to project exactly where he would fit. Scouts feel he might be too stiff for OLB, but he can bring it as a pass rusher and could develop as a sub-rusher.
  45. Lucas Nix, OG, Pittsburgh: Good athlete with a mean streak. Consistent and durable, time at right guard.
  46. Ryan Miller, OL, Colorado: Miller is 6’7" but projects inside to guard. The Pats surely got a great look at him while scouting Solder. He’s played inside and outside at Colorado. Great size, athleticism.
  47. Kelcie McCray, S, Arkansas St.: Former high school QB with good size and range. Some questions about how physical he is, but a possible back end/special teams guy available in the mid rounds.
  48. Greg Childs, WR, Arkansas: Before tearing his patellar tendon Childs looked like a prime WR prospect. If he can get back to full health he could be an excellent value pick on Day 3. Tall and physical, but also understands his role in an offense that is similar to the Patriots. Doesn’t hurt that he had great chemistry with Ryan Mallett either.
  49. Buddy Jackson, CB, Pitt: Jackson never started at Pitt, but was an explosive kickoff returner who played some sub package defensive back.
  50. Desmond Wynn, G, Rutgers: Started 24 straight games at LG, also has experience at RG.

Do the Patriots need a veteran running back?

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There have been rumors popping up ever since BenJarvus Green-Ellis signed with the Bengals that the Patriots are a potential landing spot for such veteran running backs as Matt Forte and Cedric Benson.

But with two second-round picks already on the roster in Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen does it make sense for the Pats to bring someone else in?

There’s some risk relying on Ridley and Vereen to make a jump, even with Danny Woodhead still in the mix, but if you’ve spent two second round picks on them you need to give them the ball to see what they can do.

Ridley showed a lot of flashes until coming down with severe fumblitis at the most important time of year and that put him on the bench. Vereen flashed in the Chiefs game, but otherwise battled injuries for most of the season which essentially made 2011 a red shirt year for him. Still, Vereen was the higher pick than Ridley and that has to say something about his potential.

But more confusing than relying on two second year backs is linking Forte and Benson to the Pats. Take this nugget from Rotoworld about Forte:

Forte has done his best to make the organization look bad in repeated ESPN appearances, complaining about his contract status. He was particularly displeased with the Bears’ signing of Michael Bush, even though shared rushing attempts could actually work to prolong Forte’s career.

In what universe does this sound like the kind of guy the Patriots would want to bring into their locker room? Not to mention the kind of money they’d have to give him. Doesn’t make much sense to me.

Benson turned things around after multiple off-field incidents early in his career. Still, is he really going to be worth the money and snaps you’d have to give him, which would come at the expense of two young backs who could both potentially be better than him?

Perhaps the easiest answer is to bring back Kevin Faulk for one more year. He’ll be a full two years removed from his ACL injury, and while he might not have the same explosion he once did, he will undoubtedly be a reliable leader and mentor for Vereen and Ridley. There should also be some options at running back in the draft for the Pats to protect themselves should Ridley or Vereen turn out to be a bust.

I’m all for turning over the running back position and giving Vereen and Ridley a full chance to show what they can do. Sometimes you have to go with a youth movement. There will be growing pains, but in the long term you could be setting the stage for two dynamic players that could be the kind of threats out of the backfield that the Pats have not had before.

Veteran runningbacks are expensive and already have a fair share of wear and tear, making them a financial risk the Patriots don’t truly need to make.

AFC East thoughts from a Patriots perspective

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I’ve resisted commenting on the goings on (or lack of goings ons… cough Dolphins) around the rest of the AFC East until now but it seems like a good point to review the moves made thus far by the Patriots main opposition, and by that I mean Bills and Jets since I have no idea what the Dolphins are doing.

The road to the playoffs goes through the division, and the Patriots have won the division nine of the last eleven years. So what have the Jets and Bills been doing to close the gap?

Let’s start with the Bills. By now everyone knows they’ve signed the big fish Mario Williams, adding him to a defensive line with Marcel Dareus and Kyle Williams. Then they added Mark Anderson as the other bookend.

I have mixed feeling about Anderson. He’s like that guy you let stay in your castle and he’s a valued warrior in a couple battles, then the next thing you know he’s taking a buttload of money to go fight for one of your direct rivals. (I’ve been watching a lot of Game of Thrones lately if you can’t tell). So whatever Mark Anderson, you got paid and that’s fine. Just keep any celebrating you do at the Pats expense to a subdued minimum. You owe us.

On paper, and with a pending 10th overall draft pick, the Bills look formidable. Seems like they’ve seen what the Giants have been able to do to the Patriots and are trying to replicate it, to their credit.

The problem however is the same problem they had last year, and that is lack of depth. The Bills were off to a great start until the injury bug hit them, and then they finished 6-10.

The Patriots off-season has illustrated yet again why they value the middle of their roster as much as the top, and there has yet to be an injury, no matter how major that the Patriots haven’t overcome in the last decade.

So the question is, can the Bills stay healthy? If they’re the rare team that escapes the injury bug they should surely challenge the Patriots. If they can’t keep Anderson, Dareus, K. and M. Williams on the field it could be lights out just like it was last year. And by lights out I mean Sean Merriman who hasn’t quite turned all the lights out since 2007.

I like Ryan Fitzpatrick but it’s all going to have to line up perfectly for him. If the Bills defense stays healthy they should be able to keep Fitzpatrick in a good position. If they don’t, and Fitz is forced to play from behind or “keep up” he will struggle.

The other question is can Fred Jackson continue the kind of dominant performance he turned in last year before getting hurt. He’s a huge key to everything they do on offense and they need a full year from him.

I expect the Bills to get off to a good start, how long they stay on that course will directly relate to how healthy they stay. But for the first time in a long time the Bills games will be ones that Patriots fans circle before the season.

And then there’s the Jets.

Look, I’m a Patriots fan. My general feeling toward our main rivals is well known. But all bias aside, I don’t know WTF the Jets are doing.

If you’re not building your team to specifically take down the Patriots what are you doing? The Jets holes are well documented. Safety, Right Tackle, and Pass Rush are three major needs for them, and what have they done to address any of them? Took a gamble on Laron Landry and signed Tim Tebow.

If Landry is healthy it’s a good move. They absolutely needed someone to help deal with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez because Eric Smith and Jim Leonhard were not getting it done in 2011. Landry could be an answer there.

But the Tebow move does nothing to attack a Patriots weakness (they shut him down twice last year) and it also undermines the quarterback you just extended. We all know Jets fans. Does anyone doubt there will be chants for Tebow, even just mockingly, at the first mistake Mark Sanchez makes? Tebow is another whole sideshow for a circus that has been full of sideshows over the past couple seasons.

To be honest I like being a Patriots fan even more when the Jets are making moves that concern me. Moves that make me think this could be the year they actually win the AFC East. But I’ve seen none of those kind of moves this off-season.

It’s seeming more and more like the only real talent on their roster was either brought in by Mangini or with Rex from Baltimore. Is there a single elite player that’s been added by the Rex Ryan regime? I can list off quite a few Patriots that have been added since 2009 that are impact players, who are on their way to elite if not there already. The Jets cupboards are starting to run bare and I’m not sure where the plan is to restock and build a team that can beat the Patriots.

Not that I’m complaining about it, but come on Jets. The NFL is better when you’re a tough ground and pound team, not a bunch of attention-seeking, contract-misreading, buffoons with no real plan to get back to those AFC Championship games you lost two of.

The Bills sure look like they’ll be ready to give the Pats a run for their money, at least in the early part of the season. While the Jets seem like they’re still trying to figure out what they’re doing. The Jets should have huge concerns about the Bills, especially with the pass rushers they’ve added. The Jets offensive line needs to be a lot better this season or it won’t matter who’s playing quarterback.

I’ll write something about the Dolphins when we know who their quarterback is. Until then, they don’t concern me.

Trevor Scott a versatile fit for Patriots

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With Andre Carter still recovering from a torn quad and Mark Anderson a new member of the Bills, the pass rush solutions the Patriots found in 2011 won’t be back in the same capacity in 2012.

While I expect Carter to re-sign once he can prove his health, the loss of Anderson leaves the Pats with a hole at designated pass rusher, and while Markell Carter should be an interesting player to keep an eye on, I believe that newly signed Trevor Scott could be an even better fit for the Patriots than Anderson.

Scott isn’t one of the heralded Patriots signings. He signed a one-year deal which means he will have a lot to prove if he wants to stick around this season, much less into 2013 and beyond.

Scott entered the NFL in 2008 with the Raiders and demonstrated some solid pass rush skills playing as a sub at both left and right defensive end. He finished the year with five sacks and nine QB pressures in just 233 snaps, including two sacks of Matt Cassel against the Patriots in week 15.

In 2009 Scott started the season off again as a sub player at right end. In week 12 he was moved to a full time starter at linebacker where he racked up 15 of his 28 total tackles in just 5 games. He finished the year with seven sacks and ten QB pressures.

In 2010 the Raiders began to use Scott in different spots every week. Before tearing his ACL in his tenth game of the season he had already racked up 19 QB pressures. He played left and right end and weakside linebacker, and was generally solid in both run defense and pass rush no matter where he was playing.

Upon his return from injury in 2011 it seems like Scot was no longer a significant part of the Raiders plan. He was used solely as a sub defensive left end and his statistics fell of a cliff. Patriots fans are well aware of the drop off a player can have in his first year back from an ACL injury (see Brady, Welker), so it’s safe to say that played a part in Scott’s drop off. But  the coaching staff also no longer used him in a variety of roles which seemed to benefit his play most.

When you look at Mark Anderson’s numbers before coming to the Patriots they are very similar to what we’ve laid out for Trevor Scott, however never before had Anderson played linebacker like Scott. In a perfect world I’d love to have both Anderson and Scott on the Pats in 2012, but if Anderson does walk Scott seems like he’d be a good candidate to replace what Anderson did, and perhaps do it even better in some spots.

This is not to say that I expect Scott to come in and put up ten plus sacks with the Pats right off the bat. But what I do see is a versatile player who played well in a number of different roles for the Raiders, and at 6-05, 255 he’s the ideal size for a Patriots outside linebacker. He should also be back to form being two full years removed from his ACL injury, and he’ll have something to prove with the Patriots being on just a one-year deal.

Scott will surely be a player to keep an eye on when training camp rolls around.

What I look for in Patriots prospects

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Forgive me for not posting much by way of original content the last week or so. It’s not because I don’t care, nor have I given up being an uber Pats blogger, I’ve just been buried in draft research and before I come out and write a post like this one from four years ago (ignore me fawning over Vernon Gholston please) I like to really have a good sense of the prospects before I start commenting on them.

This will be the fifth draft that I’ve blogged about exclusively from a Patriots perspective. I don’t do mock drafts because I don’t know enough about the other 31 teams needs, and ultimately the only thing I really care about when I see a mock draft is who they have the Pats taking. What I do instead is a Patriots-only big board that lists prospects that I think fit what the Pats do (here is last years), ranked in order of value to the Pats and the Pats only. We’ll also do one final Pats-only mock draft the week before the draft.

Last year we had a pretty good year as far as predicting which prospects had Pats potential. Here were our stats:

  • Patriots-Only Mock: 2 of 9 draftees correct
  • Patriots-Only Big Board: 4 of 9 draftees ranked
  • Positions Drafted: 5 of 9 correctly projected (missed TE, QB, 2nd DB, 2nd RB)

I can say now that I highly doubt I can match hitting 2 of the Pats picks this year (Nate Solder & Ras-I Dowling), but that won’t stop me from trying!

Here’s some of the nuggets that I’ve learned over the years of studying the Pats drafts.

Never discount a player based on a combine number

I see a lot of my fellow amateur draft pundits discount a player based solely on random stats like their 40 time, or 3-cone time, or their arm length, or anything else that gets measured in Indy. Ultimately I don’t think any stats you’ll find, especially at the combine, are the key to unlocking the secret code to a Belichick draft. They are pieces of the puzzle, but smaller ones on the periphery. For every “a player needs to be X, Y and Z to be drafted by the Pats at that position” there’s an exception, and if there hasn’t been one yet it doesn’t mean it’s set in stone.

Versatility/Football intelligence are prime factors

There’s no place for a one trick pony on the draft board. Receivers/Defensive Backs with return ability get a big check. Linemen who can play multiple spots do as well. The Patriots run thinking-man schemes on both sides of the ball. If the player doesn’t have the FBI to keep up he’s going to bust, no matter how talented he is physically.

Remember where Belichick comes from

Bill Belichick is the son of the guy who literally wrote the book on football scouting. Ultimately game film and production during the season are the most important factors. Also remember the kind of players Belichick grew up around at Navy. Those type of guys are the originators of the now cliched “Patriot Way”.

This all feeds back into the infamous Scott Pioli quote, “we’re building a team, not collecting talent”. There’s no set formula for building a resilient team like the 2011 Pats were, but we all know the kind of positive, hard working guys that fit best. I won’t necessarily take a guy off the board if he’s made some bad decisions in the past, but it’s usually apparent when a guy is a consistent meatball.

Be on the look out for freaks

Belichick has such a sense of history with the game of football, I believe he truly enjoys finding players who are freakish in one way or another. Just having that one unique skill gives Belichick something to play with and use to his advantage, so when a player has unique size/movement skills (Marcus Cannon) or unique ways of reading/reacting (Brandon Spikes) I believe BB finds himself intrigued.

Know exactly how the prospect fits on the Patriots

This nugget originally comes from Michael Holley’s book “War Room”, where this factor is hit on multiple times as something Pioli/Belichick demand. If you like a prospect you must know exactly how they fit in on the current Patriots and how they stack up. This why things like “pass rusher” or “safety” are too general when talking about the Patriots needs. 

What kind of safety would work best next to Patrick Chung? Or James Ihedigbo? Would they compliment each other? Would playing to the prospect’s strengths adversely affect the other DBs? Or would his strengths fill a need seamlessly?

How would this OLB conversion project be worked into a rotation with Rob Ninkovich and Mark Anderson (hopefully)? And how does that guy stack up against Markell Carter? How will they contribute in year one and is that a necessary missing ingredient for the team?

This year I find this is a big issue for those who project corners that they like. Not enough time is spent telling how the corner would fit in on the 2012 Pats. I can say right now that I have McCourty and Dowling penciled in on the outside, with Arrington in the slot. So will this corner compete to take one of their jobs? And if so does that reduce the value of the pick or even hurt the development of a guy like Dowling who was a high pick himself and might just need playing time to blossom?

So, as you can see a lot of thought needs to go into these projections and that is why I’m building my knowledge base before I start saying who I like or don’t like. Of course I only focus on the draft for three months per year. There are plenty of year-rounders out there that know their stuff, but very few know the Patriots depth and needs as well as they really should to make projections.

Now I don’t claim to be an expert. I have no formal scouting experience. All I can claim is that I’ve been paying attention and I love the challenge of trying to crack the BB code on draft day. I welcome all feedback during the draft process, whether you agree or not with my rankings and thoughts. Too many bloggers get overly offended if you disagree with them, but in the end none of us really know anything about what the true Patriots big board inside Gillette Stadium looks like, so let’s all just get along and have fun with it.

Patriots-only Big Board will be unveiled in 10 days!

Preliminary Patriots draft notes and thoughts on “value drafting”

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We’ve jumped head-first into draft prep over the last week and it’s been exciting getting to know this year’s prospects. As we slowly compose our Patriots Big Board we have some general draft thoughts to share after our initial impression of what’s out there.

This will be our fourth Patriots draft that we’ve extensively blogged about. Each year I think I learn a little bit more about scouting and specifically the Patriots process in how they pick their players, because unlike most draft pundits out there I only focus on the Pats.

What I think a lot of draft pundits fail to understand is how the Patriots style of “value drafting” really works. Most mocks are simple, paint by numbers, “the Patriots are up, here are their needs, and here’s the top ranked player of those needs.

This is not value drafting. Sure, sometimes it works out that way, but ultimately only the Patriots know the true value of each player to their specific system.

A player could seem like a great fit for one of the Patriots first round slots to us outsiders, but if they have a second round grade on the player they will not select him there. Doesn’t mean they don’t like the player or that the player couldn’t help them. They’d just rather take him in the second round while everyone else thinks he’s a first rounder.

Last year’s situation with Mark Ingram is a great example. He seemed like a great fit in an area of need, coming from a Belichick-connected coach. Yet the Patriots saw far better value with Ridley and Vereen later in the draft, who together cost as much as Ingram did. That’s value drafting. That’s how you protect your team against injuries, failed expectations and the salary cap.

This is why I believe perhaps the most important thing to look at when considering the Patriots draft is which positions have the greatest depth and how those positions relate to the Patriots needs.

In 2010, it was tight ends. The Patriots took two of them in the early rounds. In 2011, it was running backs, and again the Pats took two of them in the early rounds.

My early impression of the 2012 draft is that the greatest depth is along the interior line, centers and guards, both positions of long term need for the Patriots.

So while we can all hope the Pats take a potential star at one of the bigger areas of need with their first pick, one thing I can see coming together is using multiple high picks on interior lineman.

There is no question that need affects value. So by that token Patriots fans should be cheering for all tackle and quarterback selections prior to the Pats’ picks. These are areas of lesser need for New England, thus driving more value down the board to the Pats slots.

Notes on Needs

X WR: There should also be some value in the second round for potential X receivers. If the Pats did take a WR with a first round pick he’d likely have to have "The Great Deep Threat Hope” tattooed on his forehead.

Safety: Barron is an easy pick to make in a mock draft, but there should be some safety value in the 2nd/3rd round as well. My initial instinct is that this is an area they’ll address after the first round. Personally I’d prefer more of a coverage safety with range to get over the top as opposed to an ‘in the box’ type. Patriots safeties need to do both, but someone who excels more at the back end is my preference. Will be interested to get a better idea of how Barron moves at the combine.

Center/Guard: Lots of good prospects who fit the Patriots style. If a lot of tackles go early the Pats could be in prime position to get one of the best Centers or Guards in the draft at 27. A lot of people will cry about this. I will not.

DL: Fletcher Cox is the current Pats favorite on the majority of mock drafts, however the Pats-type DL depth isn’t great. I am on board with Cox, but if they miss out on him they might have to wait until the later rounds to get a more developmental guy. Lots of potential 5-techniques out there and I see that as a significant need, but not as big as a Mike Wright-type who can play numerous positions, most importantly interior rusher on passing downs. That’s a need Cox would fill, but there’s no guarantee he falls to 27, and if he doesn’t there isn’t another guy with value in that spot that I see after my initial research.

OLB: The hardest position to project for the Patriots is always the most debated. So many factors this year: will they go back to a 3-4, can the prospect convert to play in space, will Mark Anderson/Andre Carter be back, is Jermaine Cunningham still a factor, how will Markell Carter factor in? Lots to wonder and debate about. So far there do seem like some guys who would fit well, narrowing them down will be one of my toughest tasks over the next two months.