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Top 3 improvements of the Patriots off-season

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It’s hard to believe that training camp for the 2012 season opens in just six weeks. I haven’t even taken a voluntary look at any of the Super Bowl yet! Through free agency, the draft and now OTA’s the Patriots have made some positive moves that should pay dividends in the fall and winter.

As we close the book on another Pats off-season and enter the longest and worst football void of the year let’s take a look at the top 3 improvements the Patriots have made since the disappointment in Indy.

1. Defensive Versatility and Depth: By the end of last season injuries began to catch up with the Pats. That’s not something you can plan for but this year the Patriots re-stocked their defense with a number of versatile defenders who can do multiple things.

Free agents like Will Allen, Steve Gregory and Trevor Scott all have experience in multiple roles, as do rookies Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower and Tavon Wilson. What we’re left with is a defense that should be more “amoeba”-like than ever. This should give the Patriots the ability to keep offenses guessing, and constantly shift players into spots where they can be successful. The defense had to improve this off-season and there’s little doubt that they should be better despite losing 10-sack guy Mark Anderson.

2. Outside Wide Receiver Threats: Brandon Lloyd was the slam dunk move everyone expected the Pats to make, but what they didn’t expect was a 2007 receiver reunion outside of Randy Moss. Along with Lloyd the Patriots added Jabar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth, all of whom are well-versed in Josh McDaniels offensive system. With Deion Branch and Wes Welker also back, the Patriots should have a fierce competition at the position in training camp. Ultimately New England will challenge defenses outside the numbers in a way they were unable to in 2011. This should not only open things up for Wes Welker, but also make the match-up nightmares with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez even harder to deal with.

3. Shifting Offensive Backfield: While Joseph Addai could be a significant contributor the opportunity is there for second-year running backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen to become important parts of the offense. Danny Woodhead also should be a significant part. The Pats were content to let solid, if unspectacular Benjarvus Green-Ellis leave for the Bengals, replacing him with the lower priced Addai.

One of the less heralded moves of the off-season was the focus on finding fullbacks. Both Tony Fiametta and Spencer Larson were acquired, giving the Pats their first true fullbacks since Heath Evans in 2008. Just what the Pats are thinking with these fullbacks remains to be seen, but it’s another new twist on an offense that was already incredibly versatile.

Putting the Patriots defense in any kind of box is futile

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As Pats bloggers and pundits try to pull water from the rock that is the draft-training camp void you’ll find a lot of tire spinning over the Patriots defense.

Will Devin McCourty be at cornerback or safety? Is Steve Gregory the answer at starting safety? Will the Patriots run a 3-4 or 4-3 base defense?

Well we’ve hit the point where trying speculate anything about the Patriots defense is pointless, not only now in the dog days of the off-season, but even once we get to season itself.

Why? Because this is a Patriots defense that was built to do any and everything. McCourty will likely see time at cornerback AND safety. Gregory will be part of a safety rotation regardless.

And the 3-4 or 4-3 debate is now completely moot in terms of base defense. Nickel is the new base. The four defensive back packages  are now used when the Pats want to stop the run first and foremost. Those games will be in the minority, and if the Pats jump out to a lead it’s likely the opponent will abandon the run anyway.

The things that do matter are who wins the position battles and makes the roster. After that it’s pointless to speculate who will be playing where. It will not only change game to game, but play to play.

This is not by accident. In the modern NFL the offense has so many advantages that a defense can take some of that away by constantly morphing where their personnel line up and what their responsibilities are.

Take this video of Mangini talking about what they tried to do with Brady by not giving him pre-snap information. This is now what the Patriots are trying to do to every QB they face.

Patriots have a second dynasty defense in the making

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The biggest focus of my last five years of blogging about the Patriots has been Bill Belichick’s chance to rebuild his defense from scratch and with total authority. While Belichick deserves a great deal of credit for the Patriots defenses that won three Super Bowls, ultimately those defenses were not hand picked by him.

Sure, he took the draftees of the previous regime like Bruschi, McGinest and Milloy, along with a collection of castoffs from other teams like Vrabel, Phifer and Harrison, and put them in positions to succeed, but those years just proved his coaching genius. Those players were not going to play forever, and now Belichick has a chance to prove his scouting and development genius.

It’s rare that a coach has the kind of control and vision that he gets to construct a defense from scratch, but that’s exactly what Belichick began doing in 2008 with the selection of Jerod Mayo.

Thus, one of my most favorite times of year is the draft, especially when Belichick takes defensive players. So you can imagine my excitement after this year’s haul, and in fact it’s taken a few days for it all to actually sink in. It’s safe to say it left me speechless. Until now.

The Patriots struggles with pass defense over the past few seasons are well documented. It’s ironic that on the offensive side of the ball they were one of the teams leading the charge for the new pass-dominated NFL, but on the defensive side of the ball they’ve been continually lit up through the air.

I’ve often joked that I can’t imagine what it has looked like when Tom Brady went up against the Pats defense in practice, but quite frankly it was frustrating. Belichick knows football evolution, and usually he’s ahead of the curve, but on defense they just couldn’t seem to solve the problems that have haunted them for the last two seasons.

We can talk about how they still won a lot of games and didn’t allow a lot of points despite giving up a lot of yards and third down conversions, but the simple truth is this: The Patriots have not had a dominant defense since the dynasty years. They didn’t have a defense that could take over games. They didn’t have a defense that made quarterbacks uncomfortable. They made some big plays at times, got some key stops at times, but consistently week in and week out they were at best an average defense that needed more talent, specifically more game breakers in their front seven especially.

In that regard the 2012 draft was the one we were all waiting for. At least on paper. The Patriots traded up to take two front seven players and spent three more picks on defensive backs, leaving just a single offensive selection with their last pick.

As we’ve been saying this whole off-season the great 3-4 vs. 4-3 debate is moot. The nickel defense is the new base. If you cannot pressure the quarterback with four rushers in today’s NFL you are going to get torched. If you have trouble stopping the run well…you’ll probably still be able to outscore them so who cares. Pondering the 3-4 vs. 4-3 is like pondering what their goal line defense will look like. It really doesn’t matter.

This Patriots draft could be best summed up as “Defensive Diversity”. Every player they selected specifically for their defense can do a number of things, meaning the days of over-specialization are done. Remember 2010 where there would be whole-sale substitutions on defense whether they were playing pass or run? There will be no more of that.

First and foremost this will be a defense with a number of new players who can get after the passer, but also with enough athleticism to play in space, in zone or man-to-man, or anything else that Belichick wants to do to exploit an offense. It also means that opposing quarterbacks are going to have a lot harder time deciphering pre-snap what the Patriots defensive intentions are.

It’s impossible to predict how everything will flush out in training camp this summer. And even then we’ll still have no idea who will be where on a week to week basis. But there’s reason to be excited that the Pats not only replaced the 20 sacks they lost with Mark Anderson’s departure and Andre Carter’s uncertain future in the short term, but that they have diverse pass rush and coverage solutions lined up for the long term.

The Patriots have gotten off the “one year and done” cycle with pass rushers. They now have quite a few edge players that they can develop and nurture within the system, who also aren’t restricted to being one-trick ponies.

I’ve always had a long term view on the defensive rebuild. While it was somewhat of a surprise to get back to the Super Bowl in 2011, I think the real story to be told is how the major elements are in place for this to be a dominant defense until 2020.

And one day I think we’ll look back and see the 2012 draft as the one that was the final major piece in the second Patriots dynasty defense.

Patriots draft day two thoughts

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Although the Pats had a universally-praised day one of draft picks there’s still work to be done today and tomorrow. While they only have two second-round picks remaining in the draft, I expect they’ll try to work the trade downs as much as possible to pick up some additional selections. I wouldn’t rule out a potential Brian Hoyer trade as to add some picks as well.

What positions do I see as needs still? Well I think there are a lot of defensive backs that will be available in the next two rounds who could be impact players like Brandon Boykin, DeQuan Menzie and Trumaine Johnson. There are also some running backs that might interest the Pats as well like Robert Turbin.

I also still have quite a few wide receivers that I like who are still available like Mohamed Sanu and Joe Adams.

We’ll see how it all plays out but if I had to bet, I’d go something like this.

  • 48th overall: Defensive Back (with return potential perhaps)
  • 62nd overall: TRADE DOWN (3rd & 4th round picks acquired)
  • 3rd round: Wide Receiver (with return potential if not from previous pick)

12 notes on Patriots draft eve

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I always find the draft somewhat anti-climactic. You have three months of build-up with endless possibilities to who your team could add, but by Sunday the Patriots will have a handful of players and all the speculation of who fits and who doesn’t will be dead and buried.

Here are some final quick hit thoughts as we await the Commish taking the stage.

  1. As much as I see them pop up on various mock drafts I just don’t see it with Nick Perry and Whitney Mercilus. I could be wrong on them, and I’d actually be happy if I am, but right now I’m just not convinced they can do enough to warrant a first round selection.
  2. I am not however questioning my decision to avoid Janoris Jenkins and Dont’e Hightower on the big board. I don’t think Jenkins is worth the risk until the 3rd round, and Hightower just has too much overlap with Spikes and while he might’ve rushed with his hand down in college, (so did Spikes) I don’t see him as an impact pass rusher in the NFL.
  3. Both Frenz and I had the Pats addressing DL, Guard, WR, CB, OLB and Safety in our respective mocks. If there’s a position I think we’ll miss on it’s running back.
  4. I’d love to see an impact interior rusher picked somewhere. I went with Jerel Worthy in my mock, but even if they don’t take him I think a quick-off-the-ball defensive lineman could make a huge impact.
  5. As I mentioned on the podcast if I’m the Jets (or any other AFC East team) I’m targetting Mark Barron and having him prepare to take on Gronk twice a year for his entire first contract. If you want to beat the Patriots you have to have a plan to deal with Gronk.
  6. I don’t know who the Bills are going to take at 10th overall, but whoever it is they’ll only add to the hype in Buffalo this off-season. If they get another impact defender I’ll be concerned.
  7. I would not rule out a Mallet/Hoyer trade in the next few days. I’d prefer it’s Hoyer.
  8. I think the Patriots are more likely to trade out of the first round completely before trading up. But if they did trade up I’d bet it’s to the early 20’s for an impact defensive lineman, maybe Brockers if he’s dropping.
  9. No Pats fans want an offensive lineman but I bet we’d be glad we took one heading into the 2013 season with Brian Waters almost certainly gone.
  10. There aren’t many things I’m sure of for this weekend, but one is that we’ll add a wide receiver or cornerback with kick and/or punt return potential.
  11. One under the radar player type I could regret not looking into more thoroughly is a pass coverage middle linebacker. Someone in the 6-01, 230 range to compete with Dane Fletcher and Tracy White. That could be a break-the-mold pick.
  12. I think I’m most looking forward to the Pats head-scratcher selection of some guy that wasn’t at the combine, wasn’t on any big boards and doesn’t even have a highlights package for the networks to show after the pick.

PatsPropaganda’s 2012 Patriots-only Mock Draft

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As we did last year, here’s our Patriots-only mock draft. Below you’ll find my favorite players that fill what I see as the biggest needs for the Pats. I don’t project trades though obviously there will be some, especially to round out their picks in the 5th/6th/7th rounds this year. Some of these guys might be reaches, but even with the trade downs I see them as fits.

The players I select are based on what I see as the biggest needs and the approximate value at the selection spot. I describe the immediate and specific role on the team in detail, and I believe each of the six players below would make the Patriots a better team.

While I might’ve been able to see potential for a trade up with last year’s class (Aldon Smith, JJ Watt), this year I just don’t see an available player in the 10-20 range that would be worth the cost of two first round selections. If anything I see them trading out of the first round completely before doing that, though a move from the late 20s to the early 20s cannot be completely ruled out, especially if the price tag is a first and a third.

Before we begin I must say that the biggest need for the Patriots overall is pass defense and all of the defenders I have selected would make an impact there. When was the last time the Patriots got grounded and pounded to a loss? 2009 against the Ravens maybe?

I’m no longer concerned with finding 5-techinique defensive ends who can two gap. It’s time to start upgrading the important positions of the modern NFL: the interior rush, the nickel and dime backs, the back end/over-the-top safety, and even a couple designated pass rushers. Unlike the old NFL, being able to play passing downs is paramount and far more definitive of a three-down player. In simple terms, give me aggressive guys who pose problems in the passing game first and foremost.

Our Patriots-only mock comes after the jump:

1/27: JEREL WORTHY, DL, MICHIGAN STATE (NFL.com Profile)

In years past I would’ve written off Worthy since he seems better suited for a 4-3 defense, but as I’ve written over the past couple months I’m done with just trying to fill out a 3-4 depth chart when projecting needs. In 2010 and 2011 the Patriots went through two seasons completely missing any kind of true interior rusher. Mike Wright and Myron Pryor were both absent most of both years and I believe that is the biggest cause of the pass rush problems rather than the lack of a outside linebacker.

Worthy flies off the ball, and is always a handful for opposing offensive lines and he has the size, strength and thickness to hold up inside in a variety of roles. But his bread and butter would be immediately of huge use to the Patriots. It would allow them to not have to use Vince Wilfork on passing downs as much as they have the past couple seasons as well. If Pryor returns along with the addition of Jonathan Fanene the Pats will have multiple disruptors inside that would make life difficult for quick passing teams like the Bills and Jets especially.

Worthy is also known to have great awareness, calling out hot receivers pre-snap like Wilfork does. With more coveted defensive linemen like Brockers and Cox likely long gone, Worthy should be available late in the first, and his impact on passing downs would be immediate.

Lower Round Value Option: Billy Winn, DL, Boise State

1/31: KEVIN ZEITLER, OG, WISCONSIN (NFL.com Profile)

Pretty much every Pats pundit out there has this pick getting traded away and I understand why, but  I see the late-20s as an area to get a top ranked prospect who have been pushed down the board. I don’t see guard as a 1A (or even 1B) need, but tackle wasn’t either last year and now the selection of Nate Solder is a real life saver with Matt Light almost certainly retiring.

Between Logan Mankins’ ACL recovery and Brian Waters likely in his last year of service there’s no question a need for some more young talent along the interior line for Dante Scarneccia to work with.

Zeitler plays that mean and gritty style that we all love Mankins for, and described his biggest strength as his work off the field and in the film room. I’m intrigued by Wisconsin’s offensive linemen every year and it seems to me this might a good slot to finally nab one of them. Cordy Glenn is bigger and more athletic, but he’s probably long gone by 31, and after Zeitler there’s a big drop off. Who knows, it wouldn’t be entirely out of the question that he’s starting week one at left guard.

Lower Round Value Option: Lucas Nix, G, Pitt

2/48: VINNY CURRY, OLB, MARSHALL (NFL.com Profile)

While I feel Curry lacks the kind of agility in space I desire this year for an outside linebacker, I think he’s a perfect Pats pick outside of that factor. He has all the intangibles the Pats require, and also has the burst off the snap to contribute immediately in Mark Anderson’s early 2011 designated pass rusher role, as he had 23 sacks in his last two years of college.

He might not have the exact size measurables the 3-4 defense traditionally requires, but I see a guy who could make an impact on passing downs while also fitting in well from a team-building aspect as a player known for his leadership.

Higher Round Reach Option: Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State

2/62:  DeQUAN MENZIE, DB, ALABAMA (NFL.com Profile)

Menzie gets my Patsy-sense tingling as an SEC guy who’s played a lot of games but is less heralded than the guy across from him due to a lack of flash. He has solid size, and is consistently around the ball. He has fluid hips and good strength and agility that give him a chance to get looks at outside corner, inside corner and even maybe safety where a lot of scouts are projecting him long term.

Ultimately Menzie is an experienced and versatile player who has played for a Belichick associate in the top conference in college football. You can never have enough guys like that especially when your pass defense looks like the Pats has the last couple years.

Alternate Option: Jayron Hosely, CB, Virginia Tech

3/93: JOE ADAMS, WR, ARKANSAS (NFL.com Profile)

Adams might be a bit of stretch here for a couple reasons. First, I’m not sure he’ll last this until 93rd overall, and second, I’m not convinced he has what the Pats want in a wide receiver, and also has some minor character concerns. However Adams is an explosive kick and punt returner, an underrated area of huge need for the Pats. In a perfect world Adams could handle return duties and be used occasionally as wide receiver as he gets familiar with what Brady wants him to do. Think Brandon Tate in 2010.

It also helps that Adams comes from a similar offensive system in Arkansas and that could help his transition as well. Even just as a returner Adams makes the Patriots a better team, but he has a lot of versatility as well that includes taking hand-offs.

Slightly Higher Round Reach Option: Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers

4/126: TRAMAIN THOMAS, S, ARKANSAS (CBSSports.com Profile)

Thomas would need time to develop at safety, but he’s physical, instinctive, and forces turnovers (12 INTs, 6 FFs). He will need to most work in refining technique, but given the Pats coaching that is something that is manageable. What you can’t teach is physicality and Thomas has that.

When you look at the kind of presence the Pats sorely need on the back end Thomas looks like he could be an ideal fit down the road, while having the tenacity to play special teams early on in his career. Plus he wasn’t invited to the combine after making 31 starts in the SEC at various positions over the course of his career. Under-the-radar guys who have played a lot of football always seem to land with the Pats.

Alternative Option: Markelle Martin, S, Oklahoma St.


Check out our 2012 Big Board for a list of 50 prospects we like for the Patriots.

Thoughts on the Patriots 2012 schedule

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As always the best way to break down a schedule is to look at it as four quarters of four games each. Let’s begin our analysis with the first quarter:

  • @ Titans
  • Cardinals
  • @ Ravens
  • @ Bills

I can’t remember the last time the Pats didn’t have a divisional game in the first two weeks of the season, so unlike most years the pressure won’t be immediately on the Pats out of the gate. One benefit is playing a team they’re unfamiliar with (Titans) week one so they can spend the off-season preparing for that one, and won’t have to do it on the fly in the middle of the season.

The Cardinals should be a good tune up in their home opener before the Pats head on the road for two tough road games. You know every member of the Ravens is circling this week three AFC Championship rematch as I type this. And Buffalo will have a chance the following week to prove they’re for real in the AFC East, but they shouldn’t count on another blown 21 point lead from New England.

While the Pats can ease into the start of the season they’ll need two good games in weeks three and four that can really pay off for them in the divisional and conference standings at the end of the year.

Second Quarter:

  • Broncos
  • @ Seahawks
  • Jets
  • @ Rams (in London)

The second quarter features two great rivalry games and two not-so-great games. The AFC West has traditionally been the Pats punching bag, but Peyton Manning (albeit with a new team) and the Jets are always intense games. The name of the game in the second quarter will be maintaining focus while dealing with a lot of travel. Luckily the two longest road trips of the year are followed by a bye in week nine, the perfect halfway point of the season.

Third Quarter:

  • Bills
  • Colts
  • @ Jets (Thanksgiving Night)
  • @Dolphins

It’s strange that the Pats won’t see Miami until December this year though I’m sure the Pats won’t be complaining about avoiding the late summer heat down south, while also forcing the Dolphins to come to Foxboro in the season finale. Playing the Bills in early November, in a slot usually reserved for a national game, should be interesting. This could be a huge turning point in the AFC East. The Thanksgiving game against the Jets will of course be a highlight no matter how good or bad the Jets are.

Fourth Quarter:

  • Texans (Monday Night Football)
  • 49ers (Sunday Night Football)
  • @ Jaguars
  • Dolphins

The final quarter of the season should really give the Patriots a chance to sharpen their iron on other iron. At least as far as the Texans and 49ers are concerned, especially since both of those big games will be prime time. Talk about ideal pre-playoff tune-ups without major playoff implications. With only one divisional game in this quarter, and likely a meaningless one, these final four games will really be a chance for the Patriots to round into form as the playoffs approach. They’ll have two tough teams come to Foxboro, and one final road trip tune up down to Jacksonville. Being at home three of the final four weeks should bode well for the Pats being healthy and ready for the playoffs, assuming of course that they’ll be in them yet again.