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Predicting the Patriots PUP’ers

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The first buzz kill of a new Patriots season is always which guys open up camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list. While players can come off the list at any time, and oftenit is just a case of not passing a physical and/or conditioning test, it puts a damper on things to not see important guys out there.

Let’s begin with who wasn’t practicing during the final OTA on June 13th (via Greg Bedard’s roll call).

Not present: TE Daniel Fells, TE Jake Ballard, DT Jonathan Fanene.

Rehabbing: TE Rob Gronkowski (ankle), RT Sebastian Vollmer (back), DE Jermaine Cunningham (undisclosed), LG Logan Mankins (knee), LB Brandon Spikes (knee), LB Tracy White (hernia), WR Matthew Slater (leg), Myron Pryor (shoulder).

Watching: OL Mark Zusevics, RB Brandon Bolden.

Injured: CB Alfonzo Dennard had his left leg examined and didn’t return from practice. DT Vince Wilfork walked off the field on his own.

Just about everyone on the list above could possibly open up on the PUP list, but we’re going stay positive and assume Dennard and Wilfork were fine.

My top five biggest question marks are:

  1. Gronk – has he completely recovered from off-season ankle surgery? We knew the timeline would make it close, but it will be excellent news if he’s out there from day one. But even if he isn’t we need him long term so there’s no need to push it. Him being active would be an uber-positive development and given his off-season activities I’ll be disappointed if he isn’t fully rehabbed.
  2. Vollmer – as I mentioned earlier this week the Pats really need Vollmer healthy this year. It’s one thing to replace one tackle, it’s another to replace both of them. He was still battling an ankle injury at least this spring, and I have a feeling they’ll bring him along slowly as well.
  3. Mankins – we’re assuming Mankins is going to be out there from day one, which is assuming the remarkable, but hey, he’s “super tough”. If he’s not out there it will mean it’s time to really start considering how Robert Gallery looks at guard. Maybe I’m crazy, but just opening camp on PUP would totally change my expectations for Mankins being ready for the opener.
  4. Myron Pryor – Pryor is one guy I’m really pulling for this year. The Pats need the kind of presence he brings, an active, get-up-the-field interior defensive lineman. He’s battled injuries for two years, this could be a make or break year.
  5. Cunningham – Cunningham struggles last season we well documented, and starting out on the PUP list would not be a good way to say good bye to his sophomore slump. He needs to be healthy and dominate in camp to win a roster spot.

Reports were that Fanene dodged a bullet with his minor injury in OTAs, hopefully that report was correct and he’s out there from the get go.

Spikes had to have surgery this off-season, he’s another one that needs a full camp or risk falling behind Dont’a Hightower on the depth chart. Stilll, if Spikes is out it will force the Pats to immerse Hightower even further.

Slater should have a roster spot locked up regardless if he’s PUP’d or not, but Tracy White will be in a fight for his life and needs to be out there.

Finally the most fun question of all, can Ron Brace finally open a training camp not on the PUP list? Seems like he’s healthy, but the conditioning run has been known to haunt him. If he can’t pass that he might be cut before training camp even starts.

New England Patriots Off-Season/Pre-Camp Awards

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As we wind down into the final week of the dreadfully long Patriots off-season it’s time to give out some awards and make some camp predictions. Let us bid the off-season of Gronk a fond farewell as we are proud to present the PatsPropaganda Patriots Off-Season/Pre-Camp Awards.

Best Team Move: Locking Up Gronk Long Term

Ensuring that Gronk is a Patriot for the prime of his career was a move that will ensure long-term offensive success. He could be the biggest piece in aiding the inevitable transition from Brady to the next guy.

Worst Team Move: Failing to Lock Up Welker Long Term

It takes two to tango, but failing to come to a long term agreement with Welker makes it likely this is his last year in New England. We’re used to contract battles like this, and sadly this will just be the latest indispensable Patriot who gets dispensed of before we the fans are ready.

Player Addition Most Likely To Bust: Chandler Jones

The sudden and over-the-top love for Chandler Jones in the final days before the draft surprised more than a few pundits, even coming from respected voices like Mike Lombardi and Mike Mayock. Even today some fail to see what made Jones a first round pick. He should be brought along slowly, but he’s going to need to at least flash something this year. I am most curious to see Jones in pre-season action, because from what my uneducated eyes have seen I’m not sure he’s a true impact player.

Player Addition Least Likely To Bust: Brandon Lloyd

Things are never a slam dunk with the Patriots until they did what everyone thought they would and acquired Brandon Lloyd. So far in OTAs Lloyd has been as-advertised, drawing praise from Tom Brady and flashing in ways Ochocinco never did. If he stays healthy he will be a deadly addition and fill a major need by challenging defenses on the perimeter.

Best Under-The-Radar Addition: Trevor Scott

Scott is your prototypical Pats free agent signing. Flashed some versatile potential for a perennial loser before getting set back by an injury. Now he’s healthy and plays a position of need. He’s one of my favorites to be a major impact newcomer this year.

Undrafted Rookie Most Likely to Make 53-Man Roster: Justin Francis

There’s always at least one and I have to go with what the beat guys observed in OTAs, especially Bedard, on this one. But from the sound of it, Francis has a lot of what the Pat lack. Most obvious is his ability to rush the passer on the interior, but also the versatility he has to play in multiple spots along the line.

Most Likely to Get Injured in Training Camp: Joseph Addai

I refuse to believe the guy who scored the game winning TD in the 2006 AFCCG against us is going to be a Patriot this year. Let’s just go the safe route and have him get hurt the second week of camp. Plus I could never give a Patriot I actually like this award.

Most Likely to be Most Improved: Stevan Ridley

I think Ridley puts the fumblitis behind him and becomes a back who can play any down. Without much of any off-season last year he did pretty well. Now with a full off-season he should really blossom.

Worst Off-Season: (tie) Gronk’s Shirts/Brady’s Hair

Hard to pick one or the other here. Gronk’s shirts were consistently disregarded and destroyed, while Brady’s hair kept making odd choices that put it in the line of fire. I look forward to hearing nothing more about either of these things.

Most To Prove: Jermaine Cunningham

It’s well documented how Belichick had his eye on Cunningham for a long time before drafting him. He showed some potential in 2010 but last year it was a Murphy’s Law year. Scheme change, injuries, and poor performance put him in a rough sophomore slump that has some calling him a long shot to even make the roster. I still think he has something to add to this team, but he’ll have to stay healthy and take a big leap forward.

Player Most Needed Healthy: Sebastian Vollmer

It’s one thing to replace one tackle, and Solder should have that covered, but if Vollmer is banged up again this year it’s going to put some serious question marks along the Pats offensive line. Marcus Cannon isn’t a disaster and could possibly be pretty good, but suddenly having two second-year guys on the edges of your o-line is never something you can be totally comfortable with. A healthy Vollmer would give the Pats a level of continuity that they’ll really need for an offensive line facing significant changes/questions.

Biggest Question Mark: Ras-I Dowling

Can he stay healthy? How good is he really? No Patriot has more questions surrounding him than Ras-I. First and foremost is he just needs to stay healthy, which is easier said than done. But if he can do that he has a chance to make the entire Pats secondary better. He could be starting game one, or end up cut or on IR again. I have no idea.

Tightest Camp Battle: Donte Stallworth vs. Deion Branch

When you break it down I think these two guys are neck and neck for a roster spot. Stallworth’s a little more of a burner, Branch is a little more savvy. I give a slight edge to Branch unless he’s lost any more of his quickness.

Breakout Star of 2012: Stevan Ridley

Ridley finally should give the Pats a homerun threat in their backfield, something they really have never had during Belichick’s reign. We can expect Brandon Lloyd to do great thing, but Ridley should be the player that everyone is talking about this year.

Comeback Position of the Year: Fullback

There’s no guarantee that either Spencer Larson or Tony Fiametta will make the roster but it’s nice to see some traditional fullbacks back on the Pats roster.  I don’t think it signifies any real philosophical change for the Pats (as much as I wish it did), but both guys are interesting players that would bring a new wrinkle both in short yardage situations and even in passing ones.

Most Needing to Stay Healthy: Patrick Chung

There’s a lot on the line for Chung this year as he enters the final year of his rookie deal being the de facto leader of an oft torched secondary. No doubt he’s the Pats best safety, but just how much will the Pats be willing to spend to lock him up long term? Staying healthy is key, and not an easy thing to do for a player who plays where and how Chung does. His health could go a long way toward determining how much improved the defense is. Let’s remember every year Rodney Harrison stayed healthy the Pats went to the Super Bowl and that’s where Chung is playing now.

Best Rookie: Dont’a Hightower

I don’t know how Hightower will be used but I think he’ll be used a lot and give the Pats a lot of flexibility in their linebacking corps. Look for him, Ninkovich and Spikes to have a battle royale in camp to determine who plays where, but I think when the dust settles we’ll see more and more of Hightower. It’s hard not to be excited to add one of the best players off one of the best defenses in college football. He has to help, right?

Guy Not Named Brady We Can’t Afford to Lose: Vince Wilfork

I considered almost not writing this but it has to be said, I’m not sure what happens if Big Vince goes down for any period of time. He’s the key to the entire front 7, and where the defensive game plan starts. How well could the Pats get by with Gerard Warren, Kyle Love, Jonthan Fanene and Brandon Deaderick? I shutter even thinking about it. Let’s stop even talking about it.

The “No Expectations” Award: Shane Vereen

We forget Vereen was drafted before Ridley. No one knows exactly how he fits in, though it seems clear he’s fast and can catch. Is he good enough to make Woodhead irrelevant? That remains to be seen, but no other player has more limited expectations that Vereen, which is insane for a second round pick.

The “Super Tough” Award: Logan Mankins

As I’ve said before, if Belichick calls you “super tough” I don’t expect a little ACL tear to prevent you from coming back for the opener. I think Mankins should be out there day one and hopefully it’s not a down year for him because we certainly can’t afford that.

Face value Patriots tickets: The Impossible Dream

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This morning Patriots tickets went on sale on Ticketmaster, and excited Pats fans with multiple browser windows open began their quest to secure face value tickets at 10am EST.

What followed shortly thereafter was a collection of responses like these from Twitter:

Even an informal twitter poll by yours truly failed to turn up one single fan who was able to get tickets this morning. This is nothing new, and there has to be a better way for regular fans to get tickets before they get bought up by the bots and resold at an increased price.

Here’s my proposal: why not go back to the old fashioned way? You know, have actual hard copies of tickets that real human beings can wait in line for and purchase?

The Patriots could even make an event out of it. I know more than a few people willing to drive down to Foxboro in early summer to wait in line with other fans. Put Pats highlights up on the jumbotron, play some music, get Coach Belichick to come out and shake hands, maybe cut some sleeves off (okay maybe that’s a little much). What a great way to get people pumped for the season!

And think of all the business it would drive to the Hall and Patriots Place! That’s money that goes back to the organization and not to ticket brokers like Stub Hub.

At least it would certainly be better to stand and wait with other passionate fans at the stadium than sitting in front of a computer, frantically refreshing multiple browsers only to find yourself screwed by Ticketmaster yet again.

It should not be this hard for average fans to get tickets at face value. Game day experiences are expensive enough without having to deal with all the increases the ticket brokers stick on them.

Ticketmaster is completely broken for sales days like today and it has been for a long time, yet it is still pitched to the fans as a chance to actually get tickets to a game, which rarely happens for anyone who’s not a ticket bot.

If the Pats are serious about getting tough on ticket brokers they should really look into new methods to get their tickets into the hands of their passionate fans who want and deserve them most. Ticketmaster is completely corrupted by online technology, and it’s unfair to continue to act as though getting tickets is as easy as logging on when the sale starts.

Super Bowl win for Pats in 2012 would cement Brady/Belichick legacy

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A couple of days ago I finally for the first time willingly watched some of Super Bowl XVI. It was the Sound EFX episode, and though I turned it off as soon as Welker didn’t make that catch and watched a lot of it on mute, I once and for all put the 2011 Pats to rest.

Going into the Super Bowl I really saw no way the Pats would lose. Up to that point every game seemed to have its own poetic justice (except that first Giants loss). Brady beat the Jets in New York for the first time since the Spygate, and ended the seasons of both the other teams that had ended his in 2005 and 2009.

Peyton as a Colt vs. Brady was over. And hey, we even let the Steelers finally win one! I knew you had it in you guys! 

Add all that with Myra Kraft’s magical presence over the team and I just didn’t see how we would possibly lose that game. It was just too perfectly all lined up. The Pats would cap off the season by beating who else but the Giants, and avenge the biggest and worst defeat of the Belichick era.

Forget about the Perfect Season, that’s the Perfect Decade.

To be honest it even scared me a little bit in the week leading up to the game. Half the fun of the NFL season is avenging past losses and trying to right wrongs. There would be no one left to beat.

And had the Pats won the Super Bowl my ultimate nightmare could’ve possibly come true. It would seem as good a time as any for Belichick call it a career. And that is something I don’t want.

Well it must’ve been too perfect for the football gods because they decided to tear our heart out on a grand stage yet again, and here I am, left really hating Eli and the Giants a good deal more than I hated them starting in February 2008, and general apathy towards everyone else.

The Jets will always be the Jets of course, and I’ll always respect and enjoy the games against the Ravens and Steelers, but outside the Giants it’s all just slightly less meaningful. 

Still, there should be some great games this season. Getting a shot at the Texans and 49ers should be interesting, and going into Baltimore should be a dog fight. But new rivals must emerge.

Perhaps Buffalo or Houston are ready to give us a run in the AFC, but as things are lining up right now  the Pats should be favorites to secure homefield advantage for the third straight year.

Being a Pats fan has been quite a ride for the past decade. It all seemed easy early on, but lately no professional sports team has fallen just short of championships more than BB and TFB. Yet again the pieces are in place to make a run at another Lombardi which would definitely cement the Brady/Belichick combo as the best of all time.

Another win would tie Brady for most Super Bowl wins with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana, not to mention that he’d stand alone having gone to six. Another MVP would also tie him with Montana with three.

For Belichick another Lombardi would give him a tie for most Super Bowl appearances with Don Shula (who only won two of six), and would tie him with Chuck Knoll for most as a head coach. Overall another win would give Belichick six total Super Bowl rings, putting him second all-time, pretty much undeniably the greatest coach of all time.

And one more shiny silver football for The Hall at Patriots Place would certainly put a different gleam on the two Super Bowl losses to the Giants. I just doubt we’ll ever get another shot at them in the big one.

No matter how it ended, 2011 was a fun ride and there’s plenty of reason to believe the 2012 Patriots can be even better. There might not be a lot of teams who we still owe a pounding to, but there’s still a lot to play for.

Patriots defensive improvement hinges at one position

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Mike Wright was one of the unsung heros of the Patriots defense from 2008 through a good part of 2010 until his concussion problems started. His numbers from that time frame won’t jump off the page at you until 2010, when he put up an impressive 10.7 pass rush rating (via ProFootballFocus.com) through the first eleven games.

Wright never missed a game in that three year span before the concussion in 2010, and provided a reliable and versatile back up to Vince Wilfork, while also supplying the necessary push up the middle of the pocket. Wright’s presence helped covered up what were lean years at linebacker and defensive back due to turnover from the dynasty defense.

Ever since Wright went down the Patriots have struggled to replace him, especially the way he caused havoc on the line of scrimmage. The lack of a real interior rush threat has been a major reason the short passing teams have torn the Pats apart and wracked up historic yardage against them.

How will the Pats bring pressure up the middle this year?

The first option has to be former Bengal Jonathan Fanene, even though even he is not really an interior rush specialist. Myron Pryor might be another option, he fits the exact mold of what New England needs, but he has battled injuries for the past two seasons and still hasn’t been back on the field yet.

Perhaps this is why a lot of reporters from training camp have been mentioning undrafted rookie Justin Francis as a dark horse to make the team for his quickness off the ball.

A little more on Francis….

He seems too slow to be a rush OLB or full time 4-3 DE, and too small to be a full time DT. But he has nice agility (7.05 3-cone), burst (1.6 10 yard split), explosiveness (36" vertical) and long arms (34.5") in addition to his versatility, and a good motor.

Sounds like just the kind of guy who could hold up inside but also get off the ball and get through centers and guards.

I truly believe that the Patriots defensive improvement in 2012 is heavily dependent on finding a defensive lineman who can get interior pressure,  while also spelling Wilfork. It’s stupid to try and run Wilfork into the ground, especially as he gets older. Losing him would be a tough blow to deal with.

It should be an interesting competition to observe in training camp, but someone must emerge and stay healthy if the Pats defensive fortunes are to improve this season.

Pressure up the middle. Preserve Vince. It’s just that simple.

20 things we learned from Patriots OTAs & Mini-Camp

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After pouring over all the reports from mini-camp and OTAs we’ve compiled a list of the things we know now that we didn’t know just a couple months ago. All of this sets us up as we head into the void with a little more Patriots knowledge to chew on for the next six weeks.

  1. Brandon Lloyd is as advertised and should have be an excellent addition to the offense.
  2. Ochocinco was never going to get it.
  3. Tom Brady is just as hungry now, if not moreso than he was earlier in his career.
  4. No one knows for sure what to expect out of Ras-I Dowling.
  5. Alfonzo Dennard is “stumpy” but surprisingly effective and often making plays on the ball.
  6. Sterling Moore continues to show he’s a versatile asset.
  7. There’s a good chance Logan Mankins will be ready to go at the start of the season.
  8. Sebastian Vollmer is still not healthy.
  9. Has anyone seen Ron Brace?
  10. Myron Pryor is still not healthy either.
  11. Jonathan Fanene could play a big role in the heart of the defense next to Vince Wilfork.
  12. It looks like the Pats might go even lighter in their nickel package this year with someone like Ninkovich replacing someone like Shaun Ellis.
  13. Jermain Cunningham had a good off-season, but he got hurt again.
  14. Bobby Carpenter is surprisingly playing a large part in the defense early on.
  15. Stevan Ridley knows he has to work on the fumbles.
  16. Shane Vereen is getting a lot of  passing situation reps and looks fast.
  17. Tavon Wilson can play some nickel linebacker.
  18. Aaron Hernandez is likely the only healthy tight end who will still be on the roster come opening day.
  19. Markell Carter wasn’t as good as we hoped he might be.
  20. Marcus Cannon might be more valuable that anyone realizes.