5 keys

5 Keys for Patriots vs. Ravens

September 21, 2012 by Mike Dussault

We all had this game circled when the schedule first came out and now here it is, the AFC Championship rematch. Amazingly one of these teams will be sitting at 1-2 come Monday and facing a lot of questions. Here are my keys as I see it to what the Pats need to do to avoid that being them.

1. Make Haloti Ngata Problem (see what I did there?) – The Patriots offensive line generated little push against the Cardinals and the Ravens have a similarly stout front led by Haloti Ngata. What the Patriots cannot afford to do is become one dimensional and that starts with the offensive line opening up holes for Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead. Woodhead actually had an impressive day against the Ravens in 2010, putting up 63 yards on 11 carries. He could be a sleeper this weekend. But that’s dependent on the guys up front generating some push that they didn’t generate last weekend. Dan Connolly played well against Ngata as a center last year, the Pats will need him back and healthy at right guard to hopefully do the same thing this year. If the Pats can make him Ngata factor they should be able to control the ball.

2. Unleash the Gronk – Gronk was underutilized against the Cardinals, while Brent Celek was tearing up the Ravens for 157 yards. The Ravens still just don’t have an answer for tight ends, especially when it’s Dannell Ellerbe. Of course this would be far more exploitable with Hernandez playing, but Gronk is enough of a weapon in his own right. He should be the main focus of the Patriots attack, whether it’s Ellerbe, Ray Lewis, or the dreaded Bernard Pollard covering him.

3. Defending “Bombs Away” – There’s no secret about the Ravens style of offense. They’re going to line up in 21 personnel and throw/hand the ball to Ray Rice a bunch, and take at least a few shots down the field. Stopping Rice is of course the primary key, but that’s obvious and I expect the Patriots should be adept at doing so with Wilfork and Spikes leading the way. What is concerning to me is not getting shredded through the air. Yes Devin McCourty seems back on track this season, but this is the first legitimate test he’s faced. The key guy that could make a real impact is Steve Gregory. Patrick Chung was awful in coverage in the AFCCG, but now it should be Gregory who’s on the back end providing over the top help. An explosive play for the Ravens could really break this thing open for them. The Pats must prevent that and force Joe Flacco to take his check downs.

4. Patience – If there’s one negative defining characteristic that has carried over from the Billick regime to the Harbaugh regime it’s that the Ravens can and will implode if things don’t go their way. 2007’s game was a prime example when you had Bart Scott firing a ref’s flag into the stands. We even saw evidence of it last week with all the complaining the Ravens did about the refs. The lesson is to be patient and stick to the plan. The Ravens are good and will make their share of plays, but as soon as the Patriots start to gain momentum it’s time to put the peddle to the floor and not look back. The more things snowball on the Ravens the worse they’ll react to it.

5. Win – As always it’s the only thing that matters, and it seems like just about every pundit out there (except Mike Ditka) is picking against the Patriots. One thing about the BB reign is that whenever the tide seems to turn against the Pats, and everyone is picking against them they always seem to put together their best football. The 2010 Steelers game is a prime example. That’s no guarantee, and the Ravens have as much motivation and fire power as anyone to take us down, but it’s in games like these, against tough, physical opponents on the road that you find your true mettle. A first round bye could possibly hang in the balance Sunday night, and if the Pats want one of those for the third year in a row they’re going to have to go into Baltimore and take it.

One final key: Avoid Bernard Pollard at all costs…

5 keys for Patriots vs. Cardinals

September 14, 2012 by Mike Dussault

As required by the NFL blogger code of content here are our five key areas to watch this weekend when the New England Patriots take on the Arizona Cardinals.

1. Challenge the edges of the Cardinals defense – There’s no question the strength of the Cardinals defense is along their defensive line, but their outside linebackers struggled in week one. Sam Acho and O’Brien Schofield are inexperienced and haven’t seen a precision offensive attack like the Pats’ blitzkreig. The Patriots were extremely successful against the Titans running Stevan Ridley at the edges and I’d expect that to continue this week. So whether it’s on the ground or through the air, challenging the outside linebackers looks like the way to go, especially if we can get them matched up on Gronk or Hernando. What they’ll want to avoid is trying to run right into the teeth of Calais Campbell, Dan Williams, and Darnell Dockett.

2. Jam Larry – I’m most looking forward to seeing how the Pats take away the Cardinals top weapon, Larry Fitzgerald. Regardless if they have one cornerback on him regardless of where he lines up or just roll coverage to him it will be important to be physical with him at the line of scrimmage. A common strategy against the Pats defense is to attack them with short passes and with Kevin Kolb’s experience in the west coast offense in Philly I’d expect we’ll see a good deal of this from the Cardinals. The Patriots defense cannot allow Fitz to make quick catches and then make plays with his feet. Force Kolb to hold the ball, and allow some time for the pass rush to get there. If Larry is given a cushion he’s going to eat us alive.

3. Spread and Dead – The Cardinals defense cannot be allowed dictate what they want to do. Going to the no-huddle will allow the Pats to counter the defense’s aggressiveness, while also testing the conditioning of the Cardinals d-line and the communication amongst some of the more inexperienced players. I’d expect this means a little more of Woodhead than we saw last week, but Ridley should still get his fair share of touches. This could also be where we truly see how close Brady and Brandon Lloyd are to being on the same page. Don’t be surprised to see Wes Welker with 8+ catches either.

4. Protect our Tommy – Yes, this is somewhat of a generic key but it’s really true for this weekend. Campbell and Dockett combined for 10 QB pressures and 4 sacks against the Seahawks. Using the no-huddle can help keep them at bay, but the Patriots offensive line must play up to the task. There’s no secret that when teams get to Brady the Pats offense becomes very ordinary. The Cardinals will throw a fair share of blitzes as well so the communication must be airtight. The entire key to the Cardinals game plan should be to get to Brady by any means necessary, and it’s up to the o-line to make sure that doesn’t happen. It’s a new group, and Dan Connolly may or may not be out there. This will be an excellent test for them, against an experienced and physical three-man front.

5. Win – As always, this is all that matters. The Pats have always been tough to beat in Foxboro and the last thing they want to do is allow an NFC West team to come in and push them around on their turf. We know they’re probably due for a dud sometime in September but with a challenging three weeks ahead the Pats can’t afford to slip up against a team they should really beat.

5 Keys for Patriots vs. Titans

September 7, 2012 by Mike Dussault

Football is back this weekend, and while there are still many unknowns about the Pats and Titans we’re going to take a crack at some of the key places where the game will likely be won or lost for our beloved Patriots.

1. Stop Chris Johnson – You probably saw this one coming, didn’t you? There’s no secret Johnson remains the top weapon on the Titan offense, and the critical piece that the Pats must stop. The good news is that the Patriots defense has generally been pretty good against the run in recent years, but they’ll be put to the test if the continue with the base defense having Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones as their defensive ends. Part of me wonders if they might swap out one of those two for Brandon Deaderick to get some more beef up front. Perhaps even more interesting will be to see how the Pats deal with Johnson when the Titans split Johnson out wide. I’d expect Jerod Mayo to be on him but you can’t rule out Patrick Chung.

2. Protect Brady – If the Pats just protected Brady every week they’d win close to 90% of their games, but now with some turnover along the line it’s no longer a given that the protection will be solid. Kamerion Wimbley should pose a significant challenge to the Patriots tackles, but the real question is how the middle of the line holds up with a still-recovering Logan Mankins, new starting center Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly sliding to right guard after spending last season at center. We’ve seen so many different combinations along the line this preseason no one even knows for sure who will be where, nor if they’ll even be there for the entire game. If this group can’t keep Brady clean things could get really interesting, and I don’t like when that happens.

3. Eliminate Bad Football – Opening games almost always have an element of fluke to them. The timing isn’t quite there, nor is the game conditioning quite where it needs to be, thus it often results in sloppy football in general. If the Patriots can just keep the turnovers and penalties to a minimum they’ll have a very good chance to win the game. That’s easier said than done, especially on the road. At least it sounds like the heat won’t be a major factor with forecasts projecting mid-70s. The Pats don’t need to be dominating, they just need to play methodically and clean and the rest should take care of itself.

4. Force continued execution by Jake Locker – I’m really expecting the Titans to throw the ball early and often regardless of how Johnson is doing. We’ve all seen the Pats pass defense over the past few years, and until they prove otherwise the Titans should take everything the bend-don’t-break gives them. Against a first-time starter like Locker I’m actually okay with this tactic of focusing on not giving up the big play, and force him to put together 10-play-plus drives. As we noted in number three execution isn’t always razor sharp in opening games, so let’s put the Titans offensive execution to the test.

5. Win – Ultimately this is the only thing that matters. Opening a season with a quality road win would really get the 2012 campaign off on the right foot. I don’t care about style points, and I don’t care that no one is going to be overly impressed that we beat the Titans. A win is a win, and it will mean a one game lead already over the Jets or Bills.

PatsPropaganda’s non-biased NFL Uniform Power Rankings

August 24, 2012 by Mike Dussault

I am biased for the Pats on the field and in my blogging but I can be somewhat fair and balanced on the issue of uniforms and “look”. Really. Here’s how I see the NFL 1-32:

Steelers – I respect their dedication to continuity both in football philosophy and look. I even like the yellow helmet/number alternates.
Packers – It’s hard to make green and yellow look good. Traditional. Iconic. Perfect.
Raiders – It’s kind of easy making badass uniforms when you’re working with silver and black but I like that they’ve kept it simple and effective. The badass logo is still ahead of our time. Just ask teams like the Jags and Titans.
Cowboys – The star is simple, effective and the logo of what was once America’s Team. Pretty much perfect if not just a tad bland. And I love how we made them wear their blue uniforms last year, which in my book actually look better anyway.
Jets – Here’s a secret, I really like the Jets uniforms. Well I love to hate them, but they’re unique and throwback-y. Helmet logo could use a little work, but the unis are green and white done right.
Patriots – Just because I put them sixth makes this a non-biased list, right? But I really do think the Pats have the best modernized uniforms in the NFL. Red, blue and silver can’t be beat. With just a hint of tradition. Also one of the only teams to pick a good number/letter font when they went modernized.
Bears – Old school yes, but I still hate having to remind myself they’re navy not black.
49ers – It was a great move going back to the old numbers and getting rid of the “try-to-be-3D’ Terrell Owens era ones.
Bills – Great move last year going to these throwback look ones they have now, but I agree with ESPN in that the new Nike fly collar hurts them overall. Glad Pats said no to those. Would’ve avoided the white helmets if it was my call but bravo for the change that got them out of the low 20’s.
Redskins – I always enjoy when they experiment with their uniforms and no matter what they do it always seems to work. Are they a little racist? Sure. But we all mind a lot less because they’re aesthetically pleasing.
Chiefs – They’re only here at 11 because they’ve stuck with the classic look and I don’t mess with tradition, but red and yellow alone should have them in the 20s.
Browns – A friend of mine used to call out girls who were like the Cleveland Browns… great uniform, bad helmet. And it sure ain’t easy to make brown and orange look good.
Buccaneers – Probably the second best modern uniform update but it still looks a little too busy to me. Light years better than those Archie Manning disasters.
Colts – Boring but traditional so respectable, kind of like Peyton Manning.
Ravens – The have an over-reliance on black to look cool, and I wish I could change their number font but they definitely look intimidating. Maybe that’s just Ray Lewis in them.
Carolina Panthers – The Panthers unis just work for me. The light blue and black without an over-reliance on black, works well. That doesn’t mean I like Cam Newton wearing number one.
Chargers – They were in the top 5 for me until 2007 when they went to these horrible modernized ones. White helmets? No. That number font? No. When they move to LA let’s get them back in the powder blue throwback ones full time.
Dolphins – I have never been intimidated by anyone in teal in my life. Nor anyone who calls himself a Dolphin. But they’ve stuck with it even though they’re 70s through and through, so that earns them something.
Giants – Boring, and the lower case "ny” just seems wrong. Hard to be that bad when your blue and white with red trim and old-school though. Now if we can just talk to Justin Tuck about his facemask.
Texans – Similar to the Giants in their scheme, just don’t love their logo, but I like how they look “fake-traditional” almost. Actually think the fly collar helps them in this case.
Saints – Again an over-reliance on black to look cool but the helmet has been and always will be a classic icon. Solid and simple, but not iconic.
Broncos – One of the first bold updates, I think if any one could be qualified as a “riser” it’d be the Broncos, they’re slowly growing on me over the past 15 years. These things take time.
Eagles – Just get a new number font and you’ll jump about 10 spots.
Falcons – I’m always partial to red and black, and I like they they’ve kept their helmet logo largely the same but there’s something missing for me with the unis. Too corporate and over-modernized.
Cardinals – Red and white can keep you off the bottom five but like the Falcons there’s just something too polished about their look.
Titans – Do better Titans. They miss the mark in almost every category, especially with the computerized number font.
Vikings – Opportunity missed here. Their throwbacks are perfect, if they just went with those all the time they’d be in the top 15. But their modernized ones just don’t work. Nice fit, but too sleek.
Bengals – The Bengals have always been a new helmet away from the top-15 but they just refuse to do it. Orange and black has such potential yet they just continue to ruin it with no logo and tiger stripes.
Rams – Possibly the most boring and forgettable uniform in the league. It’s not too modern, it’s not traditional. It’s just “here’s our uniforms, we don’t put a lot of thought or effort into them, so don’t love or hate them”.
Jaguars – This shade of teal doesn’t scare me either, even when it’s with black. Bad logo too. The only team with black in their scheme to totally fail.
Seahawks – I don’t know whose idea it was to ruin a good thing but now it looks like there’s an arena league team in the NFL. Last year they would’ve easily been top-15, now they’re almost bottom of the barrel if it wasn’t for…
Lions – Honolulu blue burns my retinas, and it ruins a good helmet and a color scheme that should be easy to work with. Send Honolulu blue back to Hawaii. It’s just so overwhelmingly horrible to look it gets them right to the bottom. This is football, not a black light party.

Top 5 surprises of Patriots training camp

August 16, 2012 by Mike Dussault

Tomorrow is the last day of Patriots training camp that will be open to the public and from there on out we’ll be left with only game action to dissect.

It’s important not to get too carried away when analyzing the preseason or practices. Offenses especially take time to come together and just because the process is a little choppy at times doesn’t mean it won’t all come together once the bullets are real.

With that in mind, there have still been a lot of interesting and unexpected things that we’ve seen over the last few weeks so let’s take a look at five things that have surprised me most this year in camp.

1. Chandler Jones looks ready to make an impact – This has to be the most obvious one but Jones has shined early and often and looks like the player that Patriots fans have been waiting for ever since Willie McGinest left. While we don’t want to get carried away it’s hard not to get overly excited thinking about what Jones could finally bring to the defense- an edge presence that truly make offenses take note when preparing for the Pats. That said, I’m sure there will moments of inconsistency with Jones, but his performance thus far has to be a surprise to even the Patriots. Coming out of the draft many thought Jones would need a red shirt year to get stronger, but so far he’s looked stronger than expected and has held his own at the point of attack. The fact that he’s also flashed explosion and a variety of pass rush moves are just icing on the cake. It looks like Jones is legit and the benefit should trickle down through the entire defense.

2. Nate Solder struggles – I’m not one to hit the panic button too early but reports of Solder’s consistent problems in camp are a bit worrisome. Matt Light protected Tom Brady’s for a decade and it became easy to take it for granted, but let’s not forget there were plenty of times over that decade that the offensive line looked shaky in the preseason. Perhaps it was foolish to just assume Solder would take over such an important position and it would be a simple and smooth transition, but there’s no question that there’s now a spotlight on Solder and the bar that Light set for him is extremely high. The third preseason game, always the one where starters play the most, will be a chance for Solder to really put the worries of Patriots nation to rest.

3. Ras-I Dowling is still healthy!! – Sorry, had to do it, but Ras-I has made it through three weeks of training camp and hasn’t missed one practice! It’s a miracle!! (Knocking on wood of course). Ras-I looked strong to me against the Saints in the second half, and seems to be putting together a solid training camp where he’s starting to get comfortable and make plays on the ball. It sounds like how the Patriots plan on using him is as the third cornerback, coming in on the outside while they slide Kyle Arrington inside to the star position. Who know, by the opener he might secure the starting outside spot all together. Regardless, he’s healthy and given himself a chance to contribute.

4. Ryan Wendell at Center – Going into camp we all thought it was going to come down to Dan Koppen vs. Dan Connolly for the starting center spot, but lately Wendell has come on and looks to be a real contender for the spot. Wendell has gotten a lot of praise from Greg Bedard and looked solid in the game against the Saints. If Wendell does emerge at center it could mean the end of Koppen who can only play center, and allow a little more flexibility with Connolly and that could be especially important if Brian Waters does not return. Koppen has come on lately so the competition is far from over, but Wendell is someone to keep an eye on in the coming preseason games.

5. Rob Ninkovich to defensive end – We got a glimpse that Ninkopoop might be moving down onto the line from his primary strong side linebacker spot from mini-camp and he’s continued to do so in training camp. I’m sure he’ll be back standing up frequently but it is interesting to see a 260-pound player at LDE in what is probably the base nickel front. I doubt we’ll see him in this spot against run-heavy teams like the Jets and Ravens, but this illustrates that the Pats are not returning to the traditional 3-4 defense as their primary personnel package on defense. They are now more interested in getting as many athletes on the field as possible to challenge the passing game on all three downs. The question becomes how well can this sub-front hold up when teams try to run on it which they most certainly will. Jermaine Cunningham’s solid camp is another surprise and he could be an interesting player at this spot should injuries strike or they want to move Nink back to strong side linebacker.

Reading the tea leaves on the Patriots defense

July 30, 2012 by Mike Dussault

One of the areas that I’ve been paying closest attention to during the past few days of camp is of course the defensive personnel and it seems that were starting to get a clearer picture of what the plan is.

As we’ve said all off-season, nickel is really the new base defense. The 3-4 defense that Belichick has been known for will still exist in certain situations, but the days of a pure 3-4 on early downs is gone.

You could say the Pats are now more of a 4-3 team, but the reality is that their base defense is really now closer to a 2-5-4 defense, in terms of really only having two strict linemen. The defensive ends have all stood up at some point in their career. Here’s how things have been breaking down:

The top six ends (Jake Bequette, Jermaine Cunningham, Justin Francis, Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Trevor Scott) and the top six interior players (Ron Brace, Brandon Deaderick, Jonathan Fanene, Kyle Love, Gerard Warren, Vince Wilfork) have been really getting after it, giving fans some hope that the pass rush might show more consistent signs of life.

Here are some of the issues to ponder. The model is physicality up the middle, athletes on the perimeter. This defense puts a huge responsibility on the interior linemen and middle linebacker in shutting down the run. If the defensive ends can be isolated they are possibly too light to hold up at the point of attack. There’s no question teams will try to run off-tackle a lot when they see the Pats in this kind of formation.

Vince Wilfork is a big key, but so are the other tackles behind him, especially in the starting spot next to him. With Ron Brace putting a few good days of camp together it’s hard not to imagine Brace and Wilfork, two brick walls dominating the interior line. Jonathan Fanene has been another stand out so far, and with both Deaderick and Love in the mix as well the Pats have some diverse options depending on what kind of designer game plan they want to go with.

The plus is having a player like Brandon Spikes who can dominate the A gaps by coming down hill hard. Spikes’ ability in pass coverage has been questioned in the past, but with the extra athletes on the edge, I think it’s okay to give up a little bit in the pass coverage department with Spikes. And really he was looking pretty good in coverage last year in the playoffs.

Add in the blossoming physicality of Dont’a Hightower and the speed of Jerod Mayo and this defense is suddenly not the hapless bunch of no names and cast offs it has been of late, it’s a hand picked group of first and second round selections, most of whom come from the SEC.

Now of course you’ve got Nink who can play either DE spot or the SLB position. He’s not going anywhere with that kind of versatility. And you’ve got Trevor Scott who just might make a red shirt year for Jones very possible. But in the long term this would be a defense that would be together for a long time, and be peaking during the Brady turnover years.

Random Patriots musings as we count down to camp

July 24, 2012 by Mike Dussault

Here are some things I’ve been thinking about in recent days as we get ready for another run at the Lombardi trophy…

I finally rewatched the Super Bowl earlier this week. Yes, I really have to wait until football is right upon us before I can come to terms with yet another horrible finish on a grand stage.
Players I was most impressed with in the game upon watching it again: Patrick Chung, Sterling Moore, Brandon Spikes and Danny Woodhead.
Moore is almost a lock to me to make the team now. Including his performance in the playoffs he was neck and neck for the best defensive back on the Patriots in 2011 with Arrington. He gets his hands on a lot of balls and clearly is not intimidated in big games. He’s versatile as well, and I’m excited to see what he can do with a full off-season.
The media is spinning the Bills and Jets should challenge the Patriots this year but if the Patriots had “the worst defense in the NFL” last year and neither team could overtake them, so what makes anyone think they’ll do it this year? Because I certainly don’t expect the Pats D to be that bad again in 2012.
The offensive line is more concerning to me than the secondary right now.
The issue that became apparent to me for the Patriots in 2011 could be summed up in execution. On the offensive side it was the “death by a thousand cuts” way of moving the ball. At times they’d be unstoppable, but when they weren’t clicking they could go cold as they did in crunch time of the Super Bowl. More explosive plays could really help them not be so dependent on continually executing so many plays to move the ball down the field. Brandon Lloyd should help this.
Conversely on the defensive side they were the most egregious example of “bend don’t break” in NFL history (per Football Outsiders Almanac). They forced teams to do the same thing they were doing offensively themselves: consistent execution to sustain long drives.
Defensively they relied on lesser QBs not being able to put together enough perfectly executed plays to keep up with Brady. It’s almost as if the defensively philosophy came down to “your QB can’t keep up with our QB, so we’re not going to be overly aggressive, we’re going to force you to beat us”.
Eli Manning was able to beat us. He executed in crunch time. The Patriots did not. It was there for the taking and we couldn’t take it. It’s just that simple.
For all the yards the Patriots gave up in 2011 this philosophy was largely successful. They lost four total games, none by more than eight points.
The question is whether or not this philosophy is sustainable as Brady gets older?
Ultimately the point is that it doesn’t need to always be this hard. If the Pats offense is able to challenge the outside and deep portions of the field better, along with some more explosiveness from the young running backs it should help them move the ball quicker and require less dependence on consistent execution.
This will also help the defense, but I don’t know if we can ever expect a Belichick defense to be overly aggressive and attacking. The Pats were 5th in the NFL rushing just 3 defenders, 15th rushing 4, 27th rushing 5.
Still, if you have better players you can rush fewer of them and still get pressure and force mistakes. That’s the key for them as I see it.