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5 keys

5 Points of Emphasis for Patriots vs. Bills

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The Patriots get started on their second half of the season this weekend, and it comes against the Bills, a divisional opponent who almost always give them a tough time.

In Week Four the Patriots nailed all of our five keys, especially with the dominance of the ground game. What could be different this time? Let’s break it down…

1. Take what the Bills defense gives – Perhaps the biggest question this time around is whether the Bills continue to go with more defensive backs and a lighter lineup like they did last time and got run all over, or if they’ll go with more of their base defense and try a more balances approach. From the Pats perspective it doesn’t really matter, because the Pats can attack them where ever they’re most susceptible. But the fact is the Bills are the worst run defense in football and their pass defense isn’t much better. The Pats can plan for a balanced attack and force the Bills to figure out how to stop them.

2. Win the turnover battle – This could obviously be a key any week but against a team like the Bills it’s especially important. There’s no question that the Bills offense will turn the ball over, so the Patriots must take care of the football. If you want to see what can happen when the Pats don’t hold on to the football against the Bills look no further than the 21-7 lead the Bills had in the third quarter last time. Fumbles by Gronk and Welker gave away the lead and momentum and as soon as the Pats stopped fumbling the game wasn’t even close.

3. No break out games for Williams and Williams – The Pats offensive line totally shut down Mario and Kyle Williams in the first meeting, but that doesn’t mean it will be easy this time around. Everyone knows that beating the Pats starts and ends with getting pressure on Brady, and the Williamses are two guys that could cause a lot of problems if the Patriots offensive line is out of sync. Hopefully Logan Mankins should be back and that will give them a boost.

4. Only three twenty-plus passes – This could continue to be a key if the Patriots can’t lock down their biggest problem area, preventing the deep ball. Assuming the Patriots run defense is able to shut down CJ Spiller (no easy task by any means), it will just come down to fixing the one big weakness on the team. Who knows what the secondary will look like from a personnel standpoint, but last time around they gave up their season second-worst amount of bombs (7) to the Bills. Cutting that to 3 would be a positive step.

5. Finish – Despite the Patriots historical dominance over the Bills in the last decade a good portion of the games were significantly closer than their scores might indicated. Let’s not forget Brady had his best comeback of all time against the Bills in the 2009 opener, and the first game this year looked pretty grim as well before the Patriots turned it around. If there’s one key that will be vitally important to the Patriots Super Bowl chances it’s to finish on both sides of the ball.

5 Points of Emphasis for Patriots vs. the Bye Week

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Yes, it’s the bye week, that one dreaded week that happens once per football season without a Patriots game. Once Monday hits the push for a fourth Super Bowl begins so here are some things the Patriots should be regrouping on with the extra time.

1. Find the best secondary combination: There are a lot of questions about the secondary right now, and that’s compounded injuries. With the cutting of Sterling Moore the Pats are even down another defensive back. So from what we’ve seen so far what is the best combination? And how does Aqib Talib fit into the equation?

Here’s what we think is the ideal: Gregory and McCourty at safety, Dennard and Talib as your outside corners and then Cole (or perhaps Arrington) at star. Keep Wilson at Money and use Chung in an in-the-slot role in sub packages depending on the match-ups.

The only issue that could come up is if they want a better in-the-box safety on the field since Gregory and McCourty seem better suited to the back end. But we do need the most help on the back end. The hard part is boiling down Chung’s role. That will be an interesting place to watch.

Regardless the Pats must figure out what the best combo in the secondary is and hope to ride it out for the next three months plus. As always health is paramount  back there.

2. Stay out of trouble – The Pats practiced on Thursday then most of them will probably get out of town one last time over the weekend. Last year over the bye we had the infamous Gronk-Bibi Jones incident. Hopefully this year he’s learned from that and will just stick to harmless fun like playing some Giants in Halo. This is a young team so you never know what to expect, but hopefully every one of them stays out of the news.

3. Fine tune the offense – “Finding an identity” has been a big buzz phrase surrounding the Patriots offense, which is kind of strange to say of the best offense in the NFL. Perhaps more appropriate would be to find consistency. The identity of this offense is one that can do whatever the defense isn’t prepared for, but the execution has been up and down at times from both the play calling stand point and the players’.

When self-evaluating this week the Pats need to find the kind of plays they can hang their hat on in crunch time. The kind of plays they can execute when they’re not dictating the pace to the defense. Things are easy when the defense is on it’s heels, but this Patriots offense needs to do a better job of putting the hammer down when the momentum is not in their favor. Doing this in crunch time might be the biggest key to a Super Bowl run this year (as it always is).

4. Get healthy – The Patriots haven’t been devastated by season-ending injuries so far this year, but they’ve had a ton of lingering minor ones that just won’t seem to go away. If nothing else the time off will give some of these injuries a chance to heal up a bit more. The players who most need it: Logan Mankins, Aaron Hernandez, Steve Gregory, Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung.

As of Thursday the guys still missing practice (full pads) were Arrington, Bolden, and Hernandez.

5. Finish – As always this is our final key. How does one finish during the bye week? It’s simple, getting your personal life in order for the long last stretch of football that could last another three full months, and putting aside all distractions that might keep focus from the ultimate goal.

There’s no question that despite their (limited) flaws the Patriots have another chance to make a run at the Super Bowl. They’ll have some good tests in the second half of the season, but the pieces are in place. They must take advantage of their opportunities, especially to secure as many home playoff games as possible.

5 Points of Emphasis for Patriots vs. Rams

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This week on Mike D’s 5 Keys we’re going the super obvious route. Sometimes these are abstract things, random points of emphasis we think the Pats need to focus on to win the game, but this week we’re just going to make it all about the Patriots doing the things they’ve been bad at doing all season long.

Unlike the Patriots, the Rams have been able to beat both the Seahawks and the Cardinals, so a victory over them would be a nice way to end the first half of the season.

This is a big game for the Patriots in an exhibition-type atmosphere, which could be good experience if they are lucky enough to make it to the biggest exhibition game of them all, aka the Super Bowl.

Any time the team can play on a big stage it’s good. Especially for the youngest team in Bill Belichick’s tenure.

The Pats need the bye week to regroup and get healthy, and if they’re able to end it on a positive note it could be even more of a catalyst for the second half of the season.

My 5 Super Obvious Points of Emphasis…

1. Only give up THREE 20+ passing plays – I wouldn’t be so bold as to ask for zero, but when you’re averaging six per game you gotta take what you can get. There’s little doubt the Rams are going to toss some bombs up, and with Brian Schottenheimer running the offense we know what kind of game to expect.

The Rams have a great one-two punch in Jackson and Richardson at running back, so we’ll see a lot of them, and then a lot of play action bombs away.

Our safeties cannot bite on play action!!!!!

And I never thought I’d be begging it for it but we must BEND, NOT BREAK!!!

Well, only break three times. I can live with that.

2. Defensive third downs under 40% – Really 40% is sub-average but when you’ve been over 50% (dreadful) three of the last four weeks you have to adjust expectations.

It would also be helpful to be under 30% on third and longs specifically since they’ve been averaging 41% on those for the season.

If the defense continues to be consistent with their run defense they should force a number of third down situations. But it doesn’t matter if you force them if you can’t get off the field.

I don’t care if it’s blitzing pressure or coverage just get off the field on third down.

3. Protect the edges – The one thing we can’t allow on offense is for this to become a Giants-esque attack from the Rams, and that begins with edge rushers Chris Long and Robert Quinn.

Luckily the Pats are strongest at the edges with Sebastian Vollmer turning in a stout season.

But there could be problems in the middle too. I loved Michael Brockers coming out of LSU, and he could cause problems, especially if we’re sans Mankins and/or Connolly.

There’s no secret, get to Brady with four, keep seven in coverage, and you’ve got a chance to shut down the Patriots offense.

As long as Brady has time, and there’s no chaos in his face, there shouldn’t be any problems. Let’s not let there be any problems.

4. Catch the football – It hasn’t been obvious to me but the Patriots are actually leading the league in drops with 17 in seven games.

Brandon Lloyd’s got five drops to lead the team. It’s time for players like him and Gronk (four) and Wes (four) to start stepping it up.

There’s no excuse. Start executing.

5. Finish – We decided Finish would replace “Win” as our fifth and final key last week and what happened? The Patriots actually finished a game off! So it’s back, obviously.

The Pats have had their fair share of big games they couldn’t finish off since 2006, but this year it’s been a major problem early in the season as well. Dare I hope we’re just getting it out of our system early!?

We can only hope that last week’s performance by Rob Ninkovich will help spark the revolution in future crunch times, because Brady and the offense were still lacking that killer touch until their backs were against the wall against the Jets.

They must finish on both sides of the ball, in the red zone and at the end of the game. 

These are the five areas that have haunted the 2012 Patriots thus far. It would be wonderful to see improvement in all of them, but I doubt we will. 

If there’s one thing I’d most hope for it’s that they manage the deep balls better. Those are absolute killers.

Otherwise, let’s get into the bye week healthy, get healthier, regroup and make another run at the shiny silver trophy.

5 Keys for Patriots vs. Jets

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The Patriots are coming off one their most embarrassing losses in two-plus seasons, and who better than to help them refocus their efforts than the good old Jets? A solid win over a divisional rival could be just what New England needs to get on track. And once they do get on track they’re going to reel off a lot of wins and be very tough to beat. Just the kind of game the Hoodie ordered!

Our Five Keys to taking down Rexy’s crew after the jump…

1. Be ready for the kitchen sink – If I’m the Jets I’m not holding anything back and going with the most aggressive game plan I can put together. They’re not going to win this game by taking a conservative approach. They need to take shots down the field. They need to use every little Tim Tebow trick they’ve been saving up. They need to go for it on 4th down. Fake punts. Onside kicks. All of it. And the Patriots need to be ready in all three phases. The way to counter aggression is to turn it against your opponent. Stop them on 4th down. Don’t bite on fakes. Be ready for whatever they might throw at you. Just do not let them get rolling with all the tricks and gimmicks, because if they do this is going to be a game.

2. Three 20+ pass plays or less – I’m not so much of a blind homer to believe the Patriots pass defense will suddenly go air-tight on us, and I fully expect the Jets will actually let Mark Sanchez air it out multiple times (look out those sitting near the field). And why shouldn’t they? It’s the Patriots biggest defensive weakness. But instead of the 6 or 7 long passes the Pats have been giving up, let’s just keep it to three. Maybe we could even pick off a couple of them? Regardless the Patriots defense has to be doing a lot of back end coverage work this week, because it doesn’t happen often, but every now and then Sanchez has his deep ball working (see playoffs, 2010). They need to start showing improvement this week back there, things have been stagnant or worse since the Ravens game.

3. Fast and Furious on offense – With all this talk of the evolution of the speedy no-huddle you might remember that the Jets were a major influence on the Patriots desire to play faster on offense. In week two of 2009, with Wes Welker out, the Patriots resorted to putting play numbers on sideline signs to quickly communicate the calls to their offense. Belichick knew Rex Ryan’s style of defense, and that if you give them time to disguise their defense it played right into their hands. The answer? Play fast, force them to react and not dictate, and this should be on full display on Sunday. The Jets defense is sprinkled with youth and inexperience, and on our homefield it’s the perfect recipe for the Blitzkreig.

4. Throw it where Cromartie ain’t – AntonioCromartie has elevated his play since Revis went down, but the depth after him with Kyle Wilson leading the way, is lacking. They’ll move Cro around depending on the situation, but I’d expect to see him on Lloyd for the most part. Welker is the kind of receiver that gives Cro problems. This will likely open things up for Hernandez, who could have a big game. Perhaps the most interesting match-up will be Gronk vs. the new Jets safeties. They were brought in to stop him, let’s see how they do. But with such a talent disparity in coverage it would probably be best to generally avoid Cro whenever possible.

5. Finish – “Finish” will henceforth replace “Win” as the final key each week because that’s how the Patriots are going to start winning these close games they’ve been losing. I’m not going to point fingers at either side of the ball, it’s a team-wide problem and the only way for it to change is for playmakers on both sides of the ball to start stepping up and making plays when the game is on the line. There has not been enough of this yet from the 2012 Patriots and it’s time to re-establish that part of the team’s identity. When an opponent is on the ropes, and the opportunity is there to finish them off, the Past must do so. Whether it’s the defense getting a stop, or the offense getting that final first down or score to seal it. Finish them!

5 Keys for Patriots vs. Seahawks

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It’s been hard this week not to develop quite the little crush on Seattle’s defense, and I’m excited to see how the Patriots offense responds to the challenge. The Seahawks do all the things that have given our offense fits over the last few years, and in a difficult environment it should be very interesting to see how our offense responds.

Here are our five keys for the Pats to get a win in Seattle.

1. Lloyd beating Sherman/Browner – One of the things that is so entertaining to watch with the Hawks, which is foreign to Pats fans in recent years, is their secondary. They’re all long and fast, and force turnovers just like the Pats do. The Seahawks like to play press man coverage, a technique that has worked in the past to disrupt Brady’s timing, especially on short routes. The thing about man is that if you can isolate someone in coverage it can make big plays possible. Brandon Lloyd should see plenty of balls thrown his way if he’s able to win at the line of scrimmage, something that you want to see out of your X-receiver.

2. Slow spread – I don’t think we’ll see a lot of hurry-up this week, but I do think we’ll see plenty of Brady in shotgun, spreading the field and choosing his best match-up. Communication in an environment like Seattle is tough enough as it is without trying to yell across the field, even with the vaunted one word play calls. The Pats can take their time, and find the match-up they like and exploit. But the key to making sure they can run the spread is…

3. Prove the ground game is elite – This week we’ll truly see how good the Patriots run game is. The Seahawks feature Football Outsiders’ 3rd ranked run defense, and as much as the Pats would like to avoid that strength it doesn’t get too much better with their 5th ranked pass defense. Still, they will have to get some movement on the ground to prevent the skilled Seahawk pass rushers from teeing off on Brady. If the Pats do run a lot of spread it could be Danny Woodhead that’s the lead back. Screen passes with him could be huge, especially with a linebacker on him. Kam Chancellor is big and talented, but covering a small quick back like Woody isn’t his strength.

4. Bait Wilson into two turnovers –  I’m pretty positive about what we’re going to see from the Pats defense on Sunday; their straightforward 4-3 defense with not a lot of blitzing. Russell Wilson will complete some passes, but he’s still young and will make at least a couple head scratching throws. Belichick never likes to get too aggressive on young quarterbacks, which can be maddening to watch, but ultimately it will lull Wilson into a sense of security and that’s when he’ll make mistakes. As we wrote about earlier this week it all comes down to turnovers. If Wilson makes two bad throws that are picked the Pats are a near certainty to win. My biggest question though is whether or not the Pats will give up another slew of 20+ yard pass plays to a rookie quarterback. I’d like to think they won’t but I’m not going to be surprised if they do. But if they keep him in pocket, and force him to throw into small windows it’s highly unlikely he’s going to put together the perfect 60-minutes needed to put up more points than the Patriots.

5. Win – Anytime you face a confident, hot defense on their home turf you learn a lot about your football team. The Patriots offense has been the toast of the NFL world for the past two weeks, and surely Seattle’s capable defenders would like nothing more than to bring them back to Earth. They have the ingredients to do so, but even if their defense shuts down Brady and the Pats offense, it’s all ultimately going to come down to the turnovers. It should be a fantastic test, and I’m excited I’ll be there to witness it in person.

Check out all our 5 Keys articles!

5 Keys for Patriots vs. Broncos

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It’s time to begin a new chapter in the Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning annals, and personally I’m glad that the scheduling gods lined things up just so it would happen. There are only so many times these two legendary quarterbacks will face each other again so we should take a moment to enjoy what we’re seeing.

Of course having Peyton on the Broncos certainly gives it a new flavor and the fact that the Patriots torched Denver in the playoffs has to give New England an underlying confidence.

Still, the Pats have not seen many quarterbacks with the skill of Manning in recent seasons so he should provide an excellent test for a secondary that remains the only major question mark for this 2012 edition of the Pats.

Even if a lot of Manning’s balls wobble, they still get to where they need to be.

Here are my Five Keys for the Pats to heehaw the Donkeys.

1. Secondary in Sync: The defensive line and linebackers are really starting to come into their own but Peyton knows how to get rid of the ball so you can’t count on the pass rush to be what slows him down. So it comes down to is Pats secondary all being on the same page, disguising their coverages, and most of all not making mental errors. The pass defense is giving up more deep passes per game than they have in a decade plus, so it’s hard not to look at the safety play first and foremost. Devin McCourty, despite a few bad plays, has really bounced back. Now the rest of them need to pick it up. Kyle Arrington finally has been able to move inside to star in nickel packages, a spot he seemingly is perfect for. He’s been in the system for a while now, yet his inconsistent play is continues. Sterling Moore surpassed Ras-I Dowling as the outside corner in nickel and dime. Ras-I remains an enigma more baffling (due to his 32nd overall draft slot) than Shawn “Crazy Legs” Crable. The Patriots pass defense could prove a lot this week, or they could show they’re the same old squad that gives up passing yards by the bushel.

2. Take our “Ridlen” (h/t @DanteSterling): Last week’s emergence of the run game was extremely positive, though I wouldn’t call the Pats a ground and pound team just yet. They won’t be afraid to run when opponents play them with DB-laden defenses, but whether or not they can exert their will, like they did against the Bills, against a top notch front like Houston or Baltimore remains to be seen. With Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil they’d love nothing more than to be able to pin back their ears and get after Tom Brady in the pocket, so you’ve got to get them on their heels a bit. The Pats had 280 yards rushing in their two games against the Broncos last year, so “Ridlen” and Woodhead could really do some damage this year, and if they do look out.

3. Brady goes deep to Lloyd: While the run game should be effective the Broncos can be susceptible to the pass as well, and the deep ball especially. As Greg Bedard has been saying all week, the shots down the field should be there, just like they were there for the Texans, now it’s just a matter of Brady and Lloyd finally connecting. This is the last missing ingredient on offense, a couple caught long balls would add another dynamic for opposing defenses to worry about. We haven’t seen a 50+ yard touchdown this year. It’s time for that to change. And you can’t tell me Lloyd and McDaniels would enjoy anything more.

4. Finish him!: As we’ve seen in the last five Pats games against him you have to finish Peyton Manning, and finishing is something the Pats have struggled with in recent years. So regardless of a lead or deficit, it’s going to take four quarters, and ultimately pounding the final nail in the coffin when the opportunity is there. Whether that’s picking up a gotta-have-it first down, or getting a critical third down stop, players will have to step up and end the game on the Patriots terms. If they do not they could face yet another horrible last minute defeat that we’re all too familiar with, especially against the Manning brothers.

5. Win: As always this is all that matters, especially in a conference game against an opponent you could see again down the road. There is little doubt the Patriots should be able to move the ball, the question is whether their defense can make enough stops to put some distance in between them and Manning. Personally I relish the chance to have one of our greatest weaknesses tested by an excellent quarterback. He might still not be full capacity, but he’s a lot better than most of the schmoes we’ve seen around here lately.

If the Pats want to get back to the Super Bowl they’re going to have to knock off some combination of Matt Schaub, Joe Flacco, Philip Rivers, or even Peyton again, and getting lucky again with a sub-par pass defense is unlikely to happen for a second year in a row. The time for the secondary to start improving is now, and getting a win against an elite passer would be a big first step and a confidence-boosting sticker on the helmet.

5 Keys for Patriots vs. Bills

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It would be hard deny I’m a little worried about this game in Buffalo. Yes, the stats look nice for the Pats vs. the Bills over the past decade, Tom Brady has only ever lost twice to them. But those who have watched the games know how close most of those have been, and it’s a pretty sure bet we’re in for another close one this weekend.

Now the Pats come into Buffalo at 1-2, with the closest thing resembling an early season “must win” in the last decade. And make no mistake the Bills are a team that have been constructed in recent years with taking down the Patriots in mind, and they’ve done it in a way that a Patriots uber blogger like myself can appreciate. If I was building a team to take down my beloved team, I’d do it the way the Bills are, though I’d surely still wish I had a couple more weapons on offense and maybe a slightly more consistent quarterback.

They can rush the passer with four, are not afraid to play press man coverage and they have a quick passing game that can eat the soft zone “bend don’t break” defense up. All of these things have given the Patriots fits over recent years.

So this should be an excellent game, and one that requires the Patriots turn in their most complete team effort of the 2012 season. Here are my weekly five keys as to what they’ll need to do to pull out the win and get back to .500.

1. Defensive Disguise: The thing that stands out most with Ryan Fitzpatrick is just how quickly he gets the ball out. He rarely holds it longer than 3 seconds and as a result he is barely ever sacked. He can however be fooled into making some bad throws, especially with such an accelerated decision process, so the Patriots must try to force those throws to the wrong places by disguising what they’re doing. From a personnel standpoint the Patriots have been fairly straightforward on defense, but this week we could finally see some switches, or at the very least, some guys in spots we haven’t seen before, especially from the usual edge rushers. Don’t be surprised to see Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich standing up and walking around. We saw the premiere of the “five and dime” defense against Buffalo a few years back and could see something similar this time around.

2. Interior Chaos: Another way to force Fitzpatrick into his interception-throwing ways is make sure his sight lines are not clear. This is done with an interior rush that can push the pocket and run stunts to keep the throwing lanes murky at best. It’s not something the Patriots have excelled at since losing Mike Wright and Myron Pryor, and they might be hard-pressed to find the personnel to pull it off this week but they’ll have to try something. Part of me wonders if newly-signed Terrell McClain was brought in just for this purpose. Even so expect to see a good dose Jermaine Cunningham and perhaps Brandon Deaderick to try and cause some disruption inside. And if Vince Wilfork could turn in a game like he did in last year’s AFC Championship that would be extremely helpful.

3. Believe it or not, a lot of Ridley: The Bills will run nickel personnel on defense as their base and that will tempt the Patriots to run on them, as it should. The Bills were built to combat Tom Brady’s aerial assault but can the Pats finally break through with their power running game and have that lead the way like the passing game usually does? It would improve their chances in Buffalo by not playing into the strength of their defense. The problem is that the Pats have lacked a significant push from their offensive line in the running game, and Dareus, Williams, and Williams are no pushovers. Still, if the Bills think they have the answer to Tom Brady it might be time to change the question. Ridley has an explosive playmaking ability that the Pats have lacked on the ground in recent years. If he can get going it will take the Bills out of their comfort zone and the Pats could roll.

4. Neutralize Kyle Williams: Anyone who reads this blog knows how much I covet an interior rusher and Kyle Williams is arguably the best penetrator in the NFL. I believe Solder and Vollmer will be able to hold down the edges from the pass rushers but it’s the inside guys of Dan Connolly, Ryan Wendell, and (hopefully) Logan Mankins (who didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday) that concern me. The problem with an interior guy like Williams is he takes away Brady’s ability to step up, and we’ve seen numerous times when he can’t step up he’s not nearly as effective. If Mankins can’t go this becomes even dicier. Connolly has struggled, Wendell has been inconsistent, and Mankins is still getting back into form before sustaining a hip injury that has limited him. The success of the Patriots offense might very well rest in the hands of how well they deal with Kyle Williams, and to a slightly lesser extent Marcel Dareus.

5. Win: As always it’s the only thing that matters. This is arguably the toughest division game the Patriots will have this season (depending on where the Jets are at come Thanksgiving) and it comes at a critical time for the Patriots. The Bills know the Pats are on the early season ropes, and there’s no question what dropping New England to 1-3 could do for their confidence. The Patriots need to find their identity still on offense, defense and special teams. They’ve had their moments in all three phases but there is still an element of unknown across all of them. 1-3 is not an inescapable hole but things will certainly not get easier with Peyton Manning coming to town next weekend. The Patriots need to send a message to the AFC East and the rest of the NFL that they’re still a team that can win the close ones, especially against a tough divisional opponent on the road. This could really be the game that puts the 2012 Pats on the right track.