PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

2017

A Look Back: Patriots-Texans 2017

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I took a look back at the Patriots last-second win over the Texans in week three of 2017. It was good to get reacquainted with Houston and a reminder that this will be a very tough game for the Patriots. Here was my film review at the time for the defense and offense.

The Texans have all the pieces, and if Deshaun Watson can make the kind of throws he was making in the second half last year, we could be in for another track meet with over 60 points scored.

Jadaveon Clowney and JJ Watt are major problems and their disruptiveness was apparent on every Patriots possession. The Patriots were still managing Nate Solder last time and were without Marcus Cannon. Hopefully, the upgrade to a fully healthy Trent Brown and Marcus Cannon will make a difference and help Tom Brady establish a better rhythm early.

The Pats’ focus on power running with Mike Gillislee will likely mean a lot of Jeremy Hill and possibly Rex Burkhead (if healthy) with James Develin paving the way.

Jacob Hollister had a catch and got lit up. He should get a chance at some payback this weekend.

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2017 Pats Left More Questions Than Answers

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The strange turns of the 2017 spilled over into the offseason once again yesterday with Tom E. Curran writing that Rob Gronkowski was in fact unhappy with football this season dating all the way back to training camp. In retrospect this article from Ryan Hannable is even more interesting.

There were rumors of Gronk wanting to retire, to maybe give WWE a try instead, just after the Super Bowl but I mostly dismissed those as just being end-of-disappointing-year grumblings. But when taken as part of the big picture of the Pats 2017 season and it’s hard not to think things were different behind the scenes this year, no matter how much you do or don’t want to buy into the old Seth Wickersham piece, the rumors about Brady, Guerrero, Kraft, Belichick, Malcolm Butler and now even Curran’s piece about Gronk.

For the most part, fans want to dismiss these things because distrusting the media is all the rage these days, but there’s so much smoke from a variety of places that it feels like something most definitely was off with this team. Here we are, 17 years in, and the closest kind of contemptuous season to 2017 came in 2009.

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Injury-Riddled Pats Still Crushing Tomato Cans

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By now you know the Patriots injured reserve list in 2017 is long and distinguished. Here’s a reminder of what it looks like via Patriots.com and it’s not a pretty picture. 

According to ManGamesLost.com (subscription required) the Patriots ranked second overall in the league in lost 2016 performance. Add in that the Pats were particularly hit hard by free agency departures on defense, compounded by the retirement of Rob Ninkovich and it’s understated how different the 2017 team is from the one that won the last Super Bowl.

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Patriots Gameplan: Who Are the 2017 Pats?

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Ahhh, the bye week. A time to relax and reflect without a football game to worry about.

The 2017 campaign so far has been interesting to say the least. Let’s face it, they’re always interesting in unexpected ways. But the headline, as always, are injuries. Injuries define NFL seasons now, and the Patriots are not immune and this year they’ve been hit as hard as ever.

Usually injuries are the only thing that stands between the Patriots and a last-possession game in the Super Bowl that could go either way. In 15 seasons together, Brady and Belichick have played in AFC title game 11 times.

2005 was one of the years they bowed out in Denver. That team had critical injuries (Matt Light, Rodney Harrison) and was one of Belichick’s worst Patriots defenses. But even then the problem in 2005 was not getting a bye. If that Bronco game was in New England it probably would’ve had a different outcome. In 2009, there was the backbreaker injury to Wes Welker in the last meaningless game. In 2010, it was the Jets bouncing back from a 45-3 beatdown to execute the perfect game that exposed a flawed defense that had survived on turnovers.

That was the last time the Pats weren’t playing in the conference championship game, seven long years ago.

My point is this — Does this Pats team have some of the injury issues those teams had? Yup. Will their (currently improving) defense be exposed at home by the right team? We’ll see.

Losing Rob Ninkovich, Julian Edelman and Dont’a Hightower says it all. Those guys were the playmakers of the last four seasons. The guys who made big plays in big moments, and that isn’t easy to replace.

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Patriots 2017 Schedule Analysis

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The Patriots’ 2017 season has been revealed/leaked early in all its glory, setting up the campaign that stands between them and winning three of four Super Bowls, twice.

The Pats will play their usual slate of divisional games, while facing the NFC South and AFC West, while also matching up with the first-place teams from the AFC North and the AFC South. I know there’s always plenty of huffing and puffing about how easy the Patriots schedule can be, but it’s all set up on a rotating basis and really engineered to give the best teams the hardest competition.

The 2017 slate has a light start and a light finish, but there’s a tough road stretch in the middle, all against AFC contenders.

First things that jump out:

— Patriots have five national TV games, including the Thursday kickoff opener, their Thursday Night Football game in early October, Sunday Night Football matchups against the Falcons and Broncos, and a Monday Night Football one against the Dolphins.

— They have five-out-of-six on the road in late November/early December — at Denver, at Oakland, vs. Miami, at Buffalo, at Miami (MNF), then at Pittsburgh. That stretch will be the defining one of the regular season, especially the game in Pittsburgh. They ease in and out of the season, but those six games are the heart of the schedule against their toughest opponents in the conference.

— Three of the first five opponents are in the NFC. That will really allow them some flexibility at the start of the season. A loss in one of those wouldn’t hurt that much in the standings. Flip side is that it’s all AFC opponents from Week 7 on, making the stretch run even more vital. Still, closing with home games against the Bills and Jets isn’t exactly daunting.

— Their first AFC East game doesn’t come until Week 6, which seems incredibly late. Five of the last six are in the division. The NFL seems like they want to keep the door open on the division title as long as possible here.

— The Bye Week comes in Week 9 which is ideal, right in the middle of the season.

— There are 10 games that start at 1pm.

Let’s dive into the game-by-game analysis!

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Closer Look at Patriots’ Coming 2017 Defensive Restart

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I touched on this a little bit yesterday, but wanted to go into a bit more depth today to illustrate just how many choices the Patriots will have to make with their defense in 2017.

Yes, they’ll return everyone next year and with so few free agents in 2016 it will be a prime time to start filling in the numerous holes that they’ll have in 2017. But with a ton of cap space the Pats have a ton of freedom.

First, let’s mention the offense in 2017 which would be in relatively good shape outside of depth. But the front line should be excellent with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis all locked up. And there would be some great pieces up front to block for them – including Solder, Fleming, Klein, Stork and this year’s three rookies Shaq Mason, Tre Jackson and David Andrews (an RFA). The offense could also keep Danny Amendola around, albeit at a high cost.

So offensively the major pieces are in place, but now let’s took a look at a depth chart of the defenders who are currently slated to be under contract in just two years:

That’s it. Nine guys, and Mayo, who is almost certainly cut this offseason, though he could certainly return on a team-friendly deal. Butler is a no-brainer to retain as a restricted free agent as well, though keeping him long term will be a headline issue for 2018.

So tell me exactly how the Pats can’t afford to re-sign Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins and Jabaal Sheard? Because there’s only one guy on this defense that will be playing on a significant non-rookie contract.

The only real question might be if Flowers surpasses Sheard and then makes better financial sense as the starting LDE. Either way I think it’s a good bet that Ninkovich is phased out (unfortunately). Perhaps Rufus Johnson can continue to ascend as well, he’s a exclusive rights free agent after next year.

Really, what are the other options to re-signing the big three? Fill all these holes with external free agents? Or second-year guys and rookies acquired in the next two offseasons? That’s impossible and has no chance to form a defense anywhere close to what it would be with Jones/Hightower/Collins. You need all three of them. It’s in the best interest of the team both financially and on the field.

The real question marks are the second tier guys at less valuable positions like Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon and Chris Jones. I’d also lock up Justin Coleman for this mix as well.

Then Jones/Hightower/Collins would perfect round out the defense, much in the same way the offense looks at this point – just in need of depth but certainly not lacking top-end talent.